So you think winning long term is impossible?

[danshan11]

Danshan, I would have thought by now that your own spreadsheet would make you at least give a little consideration to the possibility that not all lines are 50/50. But of course the one and only answer that is always given for the poor showing is variance. It is not variance. When you make non-random selections, those selections do not necessarily mimic the aggregate.

Your selections mimic the stories told by dante1, where you are on the over bet side (regardless of whether or not you beat the closer) making the other side under bet from a winning % point of view (again, not 50/50).

I would further assume that anyone claiming to win because of BTCL, actually has something going for them in addition. Otherwise, if you firmly believe that all lines are 50/50, then after a decent sample you should not make any profit on wagers that did not BTCL and you should only make the % you BTCL on the wagers that BTCL. Any other result only proves that not all lines are 50/50.

Thousands of wagers waiting for your edge to show? If my edge didn't show well before thousands of wagers I would certainly at least consider that what I thought was an edge is not and/or would definitely be on to something else.

I cannot prove this to you, only your own results can do that. If you believe that BTCL is the only way to profit but you can't show a profit, why wouldn't one at least begin to consider something else?

What I find surprising are those that follow a method that produces losses greater than throwing darts but still support that method. Doesn't make any sense to me.

Joe.

I dont even consider another option honestly because the closed lines speak volumes. the market is just efficient and not much else to say on that. I have done extremely well in basketball for 1 full NBA and 1 WNBA season, struggled in baseball and I dont see any edge in football at least for me so far. I just dont see how anyone car argue a different side. I mean explain to me how pinnacle makes money, they take bets on both sides and many times they end up on one side or the other of a game and they dont care because of only one thing line value. there is nothing to argue on this. you can plainly and openly see that lines are truly efficient, there really is no argument there.

I just dont see how you can plainly see in the results over 1000s and 1000s of games that the line is right 50% of the time but anyway I am not here to argue that, I wish you the best of luck in however you bet. I would say one thing, I am a firm believer in the only way to win is 2 things
crush the line and crush the line over 1000s and 1000s of games, anything short of that is a wasted effort if you are doing this for profit or business. I truly want to learn to be profitable in this game and so far I have had only success in bouncing round balls and nothing else. I hope that continues this year. best of luck and I am glad to contribute but I wont argue line value but I will argue anything else if you want!

[danshan11]

you mentioned variance and the fact is it is not variance in the sense of it, it is lack of bets, you cant get any reliable result from a few 100 bets win lose or draw, you need 100s per day over a long period of time to get any reliable data. So variance no its not variance, its lack of records , if you show me a guy who won 200-150 I would say lucky no matter what the line said or the win loss record, if you showed me a guy with 1400-2000 record with great line value I would say the same thing, pinnacle gets their ass kicked some days weeks and months but in reality they win in the 100000+ plus bets per year, that eliminates variance.

so even the best capper crushing the line cant win look at DRH guy is awesome at beating the line and gets crushed, why not because of variance, he got crushed because he cannot handicap enough games to cover the variance that WILL come, so in essence he is a loser too because he cant win because he cant cap enough games.

harsh reality short term winners are everywhere
long term winners are very hard to find because of two reasons it is hard as hell to beat the line consistently and what is even way harder than that is doing it enough times a day to win. you need I guestimate about 150-200 games a day minimum to create anything that is even partly reliable to sustain a profit and that is crushing the line and not manipulating it like some syndys do.

[flakeandbake]

no i am older than 40... cpa that owns my own business

have met enough professional gamblers to know that they exist lol

even bonus whores, scalpers, etc can be considered "professional"... tell me how someone is gonna lose money in this scenario

deposit at bookmaker, take a 100% bonus, bet something at -120
deposit somewhere else, take a bonus, bet the other side at +120

um roll overs? You can't get a bonus without a roll-over. So one bet losses in the account and the other wins. Not a bad strategy to open up an account that way and then bet normally but ever here of Economics?

[JohnGalt2341]

The funniest thing I hear is posters who say I got a great value on my wager and it is the right
side win or lose..........

This CAN be true but you may be right in many cases. If you're crushing the no juice closing line you ARE on the right side win or lose. Example, back in 2009 when I was new to online sportsbetting I used to bet a lot of MMA because the lines were way off back then. I remember one fight I got the opener at +225 and the same fighter closed at -115. I won the bet but even if I didn't win I was still on the right side because my Expected Value was positive. How do I know this? Because I crushed the closing line which is usually a pretty good indicator.

Here's a simpler example, let's say I offered to let you bet on an ACTUAL coin flip. You can use your own coin and you can flip the coin and you get to call it. However, if you call Heads I will give you a price of -200 but if you call Tails I will give you a price of +200. Even if you flips Heads 10 times in a row it's still the wrong play EVERY time. The reasoning is simple, if you call Heads your Expected Value is always -50% and if you call Tails your Expected Value is always +50%. Whether you win or lose on any given flip is mostly irrelevant. Long story short a GREAT(I mean really great) value is always the right side win or lose.

[danshan11]

I know and have heard it many times before, I win and I dont even care about the line and to that I say sure that is possible and even likely but not for me or any other typical guy. I have a normal IQ at best and very limited resources and I am in my guess 1000000 miles from saying I make money gambling. I hit on wnba sides and totals at over 60% for the entire season, like 100 games and I will tell you right now I had great CLV and I should have won at roughly 54% of the time based on the line value, I won at 60% there is no way that is skill in anyway shape or form that I can prove to even myself.

	W	L	P	Win %	CLV	CLV +	CLV -
Overall	75	49	2	60.48%	1.70%	68	41
Sides	30	25	2	54.55%	0.03%	26	25
Totals	45	24	0	65.22%	3.16%	42	16

[danshan11]

This CAN be true but you may be right in many cases. If you're crushing the no juice closing line you ARE on the right side win or lose. Example, back in 2009 when I was new to online sportsbetting I used to bet a lot of MMA because the lines were way off back then. I remember one fight I got the opener at +225 and the same fighter closed at -115. I won the bet but even if I didn't win I was still on the right side because my Expected Value was positive. How do I know this? Because I crushed the closing line which is usually a pretty good indicator.

Here's a simpler example, let's say I offered to let you bet on an ACTUAL coin flip. You can use your own coin and you can flip the coin and you get to call it. However, if you call Heads I will give you a price of -200 but if you call Tails I will give you a price of +200. Even if you flips Heads 10 times in a row it's still the wrong play EVERY time. The reasoning is simple, if you call Heads your Expected Value is always -50% and if you call Tails your Expected Value is always +50%. Whether you win or lose on any given flip is mostly irrelevant. Long story short a GREAT(I mean really great) value is always the right side win or lose.

the easiest true example to prove it to people is the NFL go back and look how many times a team pushed and what your win loss on that team would have been ATS if you got a half point a game and you will quickly see losers become winners, line value means everything. I am stopping now lets please discuss something else, line value is a fact not a myth.

[flakeandbake]

I have not learned how to calculate value fast enough for live betting. I cannot even handle ATS lines

Because you need to know where the line opened, how it moved throughout the week, where it closed, the % of tickets on each side, understand where the $ is sitting before the game even begins, and even trends - to even begin betting live with the correct approach.

Secondly, a lot of books have patterns with how they juice the lines in different scenarios - sometime the way it is juiced if a lines gap up or down in a certain direction. You need to understand these things to form a lean on the game or anticipate what may or may not happen - and then be willing and able to throw the strategy out the door and take the other side if the opposite becomes true. Then there's always hedging, middles, etc if the bet begins working or even writing the bet off if it reverses.

I feel like your issue is emotion / having a "stone-aged" mindset (no offense). Saying things like every line is 50 / 50 and the books don't get beat on lines is absurd. And there's a lot more strategies than trying to arb out 100 bets a day - that's just not going to work unless you really are a pro and are on the keys 24/7 always looking at the present and future lines. In that case - might as well just be a day trader like I tried once. Why not just try to make one play - really understand why you like it - and then critiquing the mistake if you're wrong / building on it if correct?

[danshan11]

I say have fun, I say enjoy it and if you believe a team can get hot read this and if you believe it screw it still bet it crack a beer and scream at the wife and TV get that frustration out, enjoy its only money, they are gonna bury you in a box anyway. If you bet for bragging rights keep bragging, play those 14 line parlays and you will eventually catch one and you will be down about the juice when its all said and done! Good luck and enjoy it, forget what I am saying, I am trying to turn what I do with sports into something else and if your not go for it, come on Dodgers, go Yankees and run Cards run.

[danshan11]

I forgot the link

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb/query?output=default&su=1&ou=1&sdql=p%3AW+and+pp%3AW+and+ppp%3AW+and+pppp%3AW+and+ppppp%3AW&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[flakeandbake]

I have not learned how to calculate value fast enough for live betting. I cannot even handle ATS lines

This is my problem with the word value. "Sharps" and people will argue that the best approach to live betting is that you can get a better line than the original (aka value). That is only true if you truly believe that team is going to win and are still confident they will cover the original line. Then absolutely - live betting is a great way to get a much better line than pre-game and therefore, an angel on that game.

Where people become EXTREMELY confused about value - is when they say "oh wow, that team was -7 pregame and now they're a pick live. What great value." or "wow I liked them at +6 before the game and didn't take but now they're +9". That logic is entirely false. Because you're ignoring the market. You're ignoring the original line not even considering that it may actually be a negative sign that you can now get that better live line. You're not thinking objectively from both lenses.

Odds are, you end up missing it or getting distracted, etc, and then see that the -7 team that went to a pick ended up coming back and winning by 30. That one example gets engraved into your brain and you tune out the true statistics and begin to lose track and become emotional.

[danshan11]

I dont see value in live betting like that.

I see line value as more of OK say the game is 100 minutes long
they were suppose to score 100 points total so there is 90 minutes left they should score 90 points more if the live line gives me even money or better on that scenario I would call that value, assuming no sig injuries or anything like that.
pro live bettors I think they know how many points a team should score and if they can get what they should score at even or higher they take it. I could be 100% wrong on all this of course, my live knowledge is very low. What I assume happens in reality is guys watch the first five miinutes of a game and say oh shit Pistons are tearing up the Knicks and the line is only -9 I will take that shit, that has value, I think that is probably flawed but honestly I really dont know.

[danshan11]

I hear you use the term sharp how come my NERF saying for gamblers has never stuck, I keep trying to make it mainstream and nobody likes it, A nerf someone who thinks they know shit about sports and really dont, that is a NERF! soft and round but not square!

[danshan11]

I think if you take this scenario
says Broncos are -6 and the total is 40
that means BRoncos will score 23 and 17
so I break that down into minutes so lets say its second quarter 5 minutes left that means the BRoncos have 35 minutes left to score so they will score .38 points per minute so with 35 minutes left they should score 13.3 points more so if I can get a bet that has the Broncos at will score over under 13.5 at better than spot I would take it if not I would go against it, again assuming that nothing significant has changed. something like that and trust me these are guesses I have zero working knowledge of this but I would imagine that is what "sharps" look for

[chaka]

I hear you use the term sharp how come my NERF saying for gamblers has never stuck, I keep trying to make it mainstream and nobody likes it, A nerf someone who thinks they know shit about sports and really dont, that is a NERF! soft and round but not square!

nerf gonna be hard sell imo, the term "idiot" is pretty well engrained into everyones mind, even the "idiots" themselves as they speak of other idiots

[danshan11]

its a very good description of most players honestly including me

[danshan11]

a month ago I would have argued all you got to do is beat the line. I now do not believe that. I believe there are 2 things you must do to win long term
crush the line consistenly
play 100s of plays a day
I do not believe there is another way to win. I dont think anyone can show me anything different with real stats.

[danshan11]

the reason i say the 100s of plays a day is simple you can do it your self and see it
get a quarter give your self 1 free win before you start now flip 9 more times and see how many times you still go 4-6 5-5 and 3-7, you will be shocked and it really is obvious if you take 1000 games in a coin flip sim with a 1 or 2% edge which is really hard to do, even with a 2% edge you will only win over 1000 flips 6 out of 10 times roughly, say you cap 2-5 games a day that is 1800 a year, you will quickly see you will have some broke bad years doing that for sure without a doubt

its not variance its reality, you got to overcome the variance by having a huge number of bets or more than likely you are lucky or a loser like everyone else even with an edge!

[flakeandbake]

I dont see value in live betting like that.

Because you don't understand the true meaning of the word value for the hundred thousand millionth time. You're under the assumption that value in sports betting is the same as shopping at Walmart. You're confusing the word "value" with the term "trading at a market discount". The only time I am looking at something at a market discount is when the line gets discounted due to an extreme high % of public bettors on the other side who are inflating the other side of line with euphoria. That's value.

I'm not talking about finding a good pick and then going out and shopping for the best possible line or waiting for it to move to the right spot - I expect people to look for that edge and incorporate it. There is a ton of value out there and plenty of ways to take advantage of finding it. I just don't think you can make the argument or assumption that value is a constant among all variables within the the market. It's more than just price - you also need to factor in the reason behind the value and why it is there in the first place.

It may sound shocking to a math guy but a team that opened at -170 and is now -110 isn't the same as a team opening -170 and is now -110. Might be the same # - not the same.

[danshan11]

it is shocking what do you mean the same,
the -170 and -110 are the implied win probability what in the world is the difference, please elaborate.

[danshan11]

when you speak of bettors moving a line and that not being a true line, what supports that, I am not going to call you wrong but I ask you for evidence of this so I can see it as a "math" guy. I think if the Browns close 150 they have a 40% chance of winning and that is a consensus number of some of the smartest bettors and money saying that is where it should close if you ever doubt that go on an exchange and put your money where you think it should be and you will quickly see truckloads of bettors coming up to pick up that number until it settles at what is the efficient number

[danshan11]

if you think the Browns are going to win by 12 Sunday and the line is 8 go out and put that number on an exchange or put it here and you will quickly see how many trucks drive up to take your action on that -12 at even money

[flakeandbake]

You can be as much as a numbers guy as you want. But if you can't sit back and objectively pick who you think will win (line aside) or you don't have the ability to model your own lines and understand how to target the variance (which few people understand and even fewer that understand and can find success). You're just chasing lines man and will figure out later why the value was never really there in the first place

[danshan11]

nobody knows who will win that is why they put a line on the game, if everyone knew who was gonna win, there would be no bets. Imagine a dice game where we knew all the dice had a 3 on all sides, would not be much action there. ATS we have no clue who will win and that is why the nfl over the last 12 years is 50% ATS

[danshan11]

its ok, please I dont want to offend anyone. I think alfa has done a great job here, his point of this thread was y, to show people beating the line matters and this thread did not do that for me and not because he did bad or good but because for me it takes tons and tons of records to know. I am not sure how he models all these games and I am not sure where he gets his lines or info but I do believe he has the beating line concept down and has done a good job but I would say even with his 10-15 picks or whatever per day, he has only about a 60ish% chance of winning money this year and every year after unless he finds a way to get his game per year count up to a huge number to overcome variance.

[Alfa1234]

Intereseing stuff here. I agree with Danshan the closing line is generally very efficient, but only in larger markets. You don't necessarily have to beat the closing line in very small markets like Czech youth league soccer to still have value and win long term. In those markets there is simply not enough of a market for it to be really efficient.

I also think it's possible for the line to be "off" in major markets but I do not believe you can consistently identify these games. Long term, there is no way you can beat the juice in something like NFL spreads (talking 10k+ games) as your model will never, ever be able to beat an efficient market. You can get a lucky streak and think you are good and your model is good, but I don't believe someone can keep it up. Have never seen proof otherwise...

Anyway update so far, up 20.08 units.

22/sep	Yeni Malatayaspor VS Rizespor 2	3,81	-1
	Madrid VS Raye Vallecano Women X2	2,5	1,5
	Torpedo VS Gomel 1X	1,33	0,33
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines BTS	1,52	0,52
	Peterhead VS Berwick BTS	2,31	-1
	BK 46 VS Musa Pori 1x	3,05	-1
	akranes Vs Throttur Reykjavic X2	2,8	1,8
	Honka VS TPS Women X2	6,2	-1
	Botev Vratsa VS CSKA Sofia BTSN	1,73	0,73
	Kelanta VS Sabah 1	2,1	1,1
	DPMM Brunei VS Tampines 1x	1,84	0,84
	Man United VS Wolves Unt wins by 1	3,85	-1
	Rabotnicki Skopje VS Vardar Skopje x2	2,79	1,79
	Greuter Furth VS Hamburg 2	2,45
	Caernarfon VS Llanelli 1	1,75	0,75
	Njardvik VS Selfoss 1	2,1	1,1
	Aris VS Dynamo Tbilisi 1 min 19,5	1,85	0,85
	Lillehammer VS Stavanger 2	2,15	1,15
	Votuporanguense VS Batatais X2	2,75	-1
	Alebrijes oaxaca VS Dorados X2	1,92	-1
23/sep	Universidad VS Colunga 2	2,2	1,2
	Barcelona VS Girona BTS	2,15	1,15
	Dynamo Minsk VS Luch Minsk X2	3,8	-1
	Albirex VS Hougang BTS	2,95	1,95
	Rosengard VS Kristianstadt Women X2	2,99	-1
	Akzhaiyk VS Astana 1X	3,05	-1
	GBK Kokkola VS kufu 98 X2	3,05	-1
	Dynamo Kiev VS Desna X2	5,75	-1
	Ilves Tampereen VS Pallokissat Women X2	3,2	-1
	HJK Helsinki VS Jypk Women X2	6,5	-1
	Prykarpattya VS Volochysk 2	3,58	-1
	Vita Hasten VS Bjorkloven 2	2,2	-1
24/sep	Unterhaching VS Munich 1860 X2	1,8
	Nomme Kalju II VS Flora Tallinn II 1X	4,05	3,05
	Shanghai VS Xinjian X2	3,75	-1
	Slovan Liberec VS Spartak Prague 2	2,2	1,2
	Sporting VS Maritimo X2	4,65
	Crewe Alexandra VS Birmingham U23 2	1,8	-1
	Cardiff VS Millwall U23 1	2,4	-1
	Lotte VS Carl Zeiss Jena 2	3,2	-1
	Atletico Barranquilla VS Colon Santa Fe 1	1,95
	Necaxa VS Leon 2	3,55	2,55
	Glasgow Rangers VS Motherwell R 1	1,55	0,55
	Viktoria Koln VS Kaan Marienborn U1,5	5,2	-1
	Wattens VS Wacker Innbruck II 2,03	2,03
	Atletico VS Huesca 1 wins by 1	4	-1
			20,08

[Alfa1234]

Wednesday:

Indjija VS Zemun 1 at 3.58
Sigma Olomouc VS Trinec X2 at 5.5
Slavia Prague VS Usti X2 at 6.9

[Alfa1234]

its ok, please I dont want to offend anyone. I think alfa has done a great job here, his point of this thread was y, to show people beating the line matters and this thread did not do that for me and not because he did bad or good but because for me it takes tons and tons of records to know. I am not sure how he models all these games and I am not sure where he gets his lines or info but I do believe he has the beating line concept down and has done a good job but I would say even with his 10-15 picks or whatever per day, he has only about a 60ish% chance of winning money this year and every year after unless he finds a way to get his game per year count up to a huge number to overcome variance.

You are very wrong in your calculations.

Variance and standard deviation means that for every 100 bets placed with a 5% edge, you will win between 40 and 60 bets 90% of the time.

I would only need to win 48% of bets at that edge to make money, meaning as the sample size growns (average of 300 picks/months). At 1000 picks I'd have a 95% probability of winning between 469 and 531 bets. I only need 480 to make money meaning I have about a 93% probability of profit after 1k picks. After a year with 3k+ picks that's even higher and the probability of a loss is only a few %.

This is off course based on bets with a 50% probability of winning so because my average odd is slightly higher the variance will be slightly increased but the basic concept remains.

[Alfa1234]

Esperance VS Stade Tunisien X2 at 4.2

[Alfa1234]

Tur Biels VS Termalica X2 at 5.55

[Alfa1234]

Zirka VS Olimpik Donetsk 1x at 8

[dante1]

some excellent comments in this part of this thread, most of them agreeing with my contention that the person who beats the book long term is a rare bird. It just doesn't happen, too many variables and facts against the player. In fact, basically all of them. some beginning punters simply don't understand this, and then they make matters much worse by playing gimmicks. hey, I play them too because they are fun but not for much money and not expecting to win. yeah, I once in a blue moon hit a 5 or 6 team parlay but that is as rare a happening as a real blue moon.

excellent points my friends, especially the fact that winning a season or even two in a row can happen and does happen. I too have had winning seasons as a player, but I never had a losing season as a bookie. I seldom experienced two losing days in a row. the book doesn't lose my friends and in the long run, the book never loses. at least a book that has a single clue. you might say well what about the offshore books that cheat or have gone out of business. I say they were either underfunded, cheated, or some other valid reason, not because they lost. just too hard to believe.

[danshan11]

You are very wrong in your calculations.

Variance and standard deviation means that for every 100 bets placed with a 5% edge, you will win between 40 and 60 bets 90% of the time.

I would only need to win 48% of bets at that edge to make money, meaning as the sample size growns (average of 300 picks/months). At 1000 picks I'd have a 95% probability of winning between 469 and 531 bets. I only need 480 to make money meaning I have about a 93% probability of profit after 1k picks. After a year with 3k+ picks that's even higher and the probability of a loss is only a few %.

This is off course based on bets with a 50% probability of winning so because my average odd is slightly higher the variance will be slightly increased but the basic concept remains.

I am sorry I was not giving exact numbers what I was saying is
if someone has 1000 games recorded even with a 2% edge they have a 60% chance of actually winning that 1000 game session.

here is ten 3650 roll sims with a 2% edge assume that is ten years

1838
1836
1898
1845
1924
1853
1939
1949
1878
you can see very quickly from this example that you will have a rough time paying the bills consistently with a 2% edge and a 2% edge is tough to have really long term.
19059
18962
19091
19058
and on and on you can see the way more stable system with 100 bets a day compared to 10. having 10 2% edge bets a day does not guarantee success, having 100 2% edge bets a day surely is not guaranteed but is as close as you can get to guaranteed and if you could do 200 a day or 300 a day it only becomes more secure. you can talk about deviations and fancy math with curves and spinning wheels but reality is about winning. to win you need an edge and you need a huge sample size and 10 games a day wont do it.

to me it works like this
10 games a day with 2% edge might win
100 games a day with 2% edge should win
200 games a day with 2% edge will win
I am not very good at math and I really dont get into SDs and other advanced math models just because of my super low IQ. but I can plainly see with these hands on experiments what i said above.

I respect you and think you have done a damn good job, I would say over time you will win and you will lose but if you dont increase your sample size it could be 3 or 4 years until you can kinda make sure you are getting fruit. if winning long term is possible is the question, the answer is for sure yes of course but winning long term reliably is the magic formula we are looking for and that comes with tons of bets and an edge, no other way.

I also agree with the small markets are not efficient and any game can have a moment of "value" because of a line shift or a stale line or whatever but in general the betting markets are efficient and that requires again a huge sample size and an edge.

No casino could afford a roulette table with high limits if they do not have 1000s of rolls a day, the game must be popular to get the sample size up so they avoid the variance bug.

[dante1]

basically saying the more you play and the longer you play the chance of being a long-term winner is almost zero.

exactly right, my point from day one.

[Alfa1234]

Cherkashchyna VS Arsenal Kiev U2.5 at 1.7

[milwaukee mike]

um roll overs? You can't get a bonus without a roll-over. So one bet losses in the account and the other wins. Not a bad strategy to open up an account that way and then bet normally but ever here of Economics?

yes i've heard of economics, have you?

open an account at bookmaker, deposit 1000 for 1000 bonus (freeplay)
deposit 1000 at dsi for 1000 bonus (cash)

lose 1000 at bookmaker, win 1000 at dsi... now what do you have?

you have 0 at bookmaker (but a freeplay worth about 700 cash) and you can deposit again and get another bonus
you have 3000 at dsi

so you just turned 2000 into 3700... yes you have the dreaded rollovers to meet but there are tons of good things to bet every day