I'm not saying I have the secret recipe or I'm good or anything. I'm not. I'm simply saying that I think those are the bare minimum basics & if you're not paying attention to the open, close, and % you can't tell the difference between one night from another or one bet vs another
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I don't get this Contrarian Fund. None of the picks make much sense tbh. I'm super contrarian and I've never shared the same pickComment -
Moving forward, feel free to ask about any pick I play out there. I will let you know why it was made.
I am definitely putting more into than what you described. I am capping the games as well.
On top of that, I am also using regressions to determine an edge against the offered line when it comes to the contrarian viewpoint.
Just ask anytime flakeandbake.
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Ok thanks. I don't follow every post but maybe I'll try to look @ moreMoving forward, feel free to ask about any pick I play out there. I will let you know why it was made.
I am definitely putting more into than what you described. I am capping the games as well.
On top of that, I am also using regressions to determine an edge against the offered line when it comes to the contrarian viewpoint.
Just ask anytime flakeandbake.
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is KVB really a Numbers guy ?Comment -
I thank you for the explanation but A how do you know any of that is what happened and what relevance of that happening is there to success?
Look I sit in my underwear eating peanut butter singing britney spears songs and model the Yankees at -180 now I know that I am not perfect at modeling (hint probably the underwear and Britney karakoe penetrates up my picks) but anyway I got -180 and I know from my 1000s of past games that if I get -180 it usually will close between say -170 and -190 so I add on a little chunk of margin say 10 cents so I need to see -160 or -200 to bet that game. if the game is -120 or -400 I usually dont bet right away and do some deep research and I get serious and switch to Slayer and put on my jean jacket and remodel the game BEFORE i bet on it. What in the world does steam or up down around have to do with anything is my question?
Steam is good if you can buy at -160 and it closes at -180 cause you got on the steam train shit forget modeling and just do that and you will win!Comment -
I'm lost lolComment -
-FH- goes way back to the old majorwager days when MW percentage wise had the sharpest postersComment -
dont be lost by the jokes the real question is this
wht the heck does any of that mean.
when the line is driven down by weather and the steam is chased up a hill, those are my plays, what does any of that have to do with winning and how does any of that give you any sort of winning method?Comment -
"If a "numbers guys" has the over of 9 and >60% of public are on over of 9. and line closes at 8.5. I will take the under with a blindfold on"
what does this statement mean?Comment -
bankrolls all banged upComment -
I am getting destroyed, I am at like 46% or something and my fair win percentage should be like 50%, even if I was throwing darts I should be at 49% so what the heck?Comment -
winning Numbers Guys have to be good at higher level math and possess a better than avg IQComment -
I fail on both counts, I guess I am not a numbers guy!Comment -
A good example of a numbers guy getting smoked is the Under of this game. Opened at 9, closed at 8.5 with only 26% on the under. Wind blowing in 6 mph from right. Dimensions of the field not bad.
I even liked the under. The only reason I didn't take it and actually took the over was bc 6 ppl in my group me all were obsessed with the under. Sharps got smokedComment -
But at the same time. Sharps crushed it with Mets so..Comment -
Better than avg threadComment -
The volume of baseball betting is not that high SammyComment -
let me give you an example of my comment so maybe this clarifies what I am trying to say
you see all the movements you talked about and you now place a bet 1 second before kickoff because you got a go signal from the things you were talking about, ( line movement, money moves, etc). So you bet Yankees -150 and the game closes Yankees -150 now we know this one game anything can happen but if they played 1000 times the Yankees would win 590 games and you would have paid to win 600 games and would lose units, right? so basically what i am saying all that reading and watching of those things you talked about and betting based on that leads you back to betting Yankees at -150 and they will close at -150 which means you win 590 and lose units, understand that? I am sorry I no I ramble like a 4 year old who just fell off the swingComment -
Sources tell me FH is NOT a numbers guy.[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
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[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
Sammy how do you who numbers guys and if they are getting hurt or what they actually are?Comment -
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Thank You SammyComment -
Using numbers here, and making late calculations to make sure there is still some kind of value against my number after sometimes waiting for information before making the play.
I started thus Fund after the all star break and it should continue through the playoffs and next year as well. Almost every play was made in the SBR Contest page and tracked...well, in a couple different threads. It's been a good but sometimes volatile run so let's see how it ends up.
Yes Sammy, I am using numbers. I didn't generate 11 plays the other day and 8 plays tonight without numbers. The Contrarian Fund is strict and if I had widened my target parameters just a bit, I'd have at least 12 plays tonight.
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