Stock Market Discussion -- started 03/06/2018 -- updated daily !!!

**Madison** · 08-25-23, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

I don't know, but from the same quarter last year Nvidia's profit this quarter at $6.2 billion was almost as much as it's revenue a year ago this quarter. That's mind-boggling. $2.48/share profit is 9x same quarter last year. Their profit margins are staggering.

Just make sure you gentlemen factor in the China/Taiwan/TSM geopolitical issues and how it would affect your various Chip related holdings.

**Madison** · 08-25-23, 11:29 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

SEA Limited, stock symbol SE$

what an absolute shittshow

crushing me and i refuse to add to that position.

stinker.

Agreed. This was much hyped 2 years ago here. I bought then but got stopped out. Bought again earlier this year, got some nice eraly gains (near 80?) and watched it melt away. Small position so no stop but would appreciate any insight aas to WTF is going on???

**Madison** · 08-25-23, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by homie1975

we have had selling pressure since 7/31.

3 weeks worth.

that does not just go away because one behemoth blows out earnings and guidance.

NVDA and MSFT etc had run way too far way too fast since 1/1 those first 7 mos so it was time for some people to trim their positions, and they did.

This.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-25-23, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Chucky, most EV and Commodities are down. There are a lot of EV's in back stock. Thus the Lithium/Copper/etc are down. I just started a position in copper COPX. Now is a great time to DCA on LAC and look at ALB/SQM and LTHM. There are many more in the Lithium play. I'm a trader so I did sell some of my Lithium plays and I'm adding now. For instance ALB has been very good to me ... Buy under $200 sell over $250. Keep your eye on the Quantum space. Lot of potential 100x possibilities. I'm playing with IONQ and others.

I know youre in MSTR and have done quite well. I almost posted an article earlier but make sure you understand how much MSTR is a proxy for BTC. They own like 138K shares.

BOL, Bud!!!

Thank you, Madison!

Yes, you hit on all the key points. I don't mind that LAC has dipped a bit.

My portfolio management has been pretty simple:
1) Slowly divest a few holdings that have to be over-valued. Things like Tech stocks (Apple, MSFT) and some of the Index funds.
2) Dollar-cost average on some of the Metal/BTC funds. So, LAC/MSTR/GBTC and a few others. See my post on the Jon Cursi BTC price across the halving.

That's my logic. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Thanks again for your posts. It's nice to get insights from someone who is more knowledgeable on the Stock Investing game than me.

**raiders72001** · 08-25-23, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by homie1975

1 oz of bad news or weaker than super strong guidance, and it will drop.

that's what happens when you've gone +230% YTD

i hope i am wrong.

NVDA directly and indirectly affects my portfolios, 401K, and Roth IRA in many ways :-)

I'm pulling for you. NVDA indirectly involved in crypto because of AI and gaming.

**Slurry Pumper** · 08-25-23, 05:41 PM

I've been primarily doing nothing the last week or so. Just hanging onto my Jan Puts on all the index funds. I was expecting a bounce here last week but every time it bounced, there was little follow through. I tried a few times for daily calls, and even made some lunch money a few times, but each time the reverse was in. Powell came out and basically said what he was supposed to and the markets are kind of hovering.
Next week we'll see if the SPY can get above the large breakdown candle stick from just yesterday at $445. It may be a good place to add to those Puts I got for Jan, and even the daily trades I make. On the other side, I'll try buying Calls in SPY at $433.25. In between, I'll just be watching to see what happens.
Over in the Q market, its the same story, wait to see if they can make it above $373, and if they can't it Puts baby, and on the other side its $355.25, and if they stop going down that is a spot for the Calls.
How about SMH? Its the same shyt over and over there to. The break down candle high is $156.50, but there is another spot of resistance at the 50 DMA $153, I'll be playing both spots for directional plays depending on the market mood that day. The Call options I'll be buying on a down turn is the $143.85 looking for at least an intraday bounce.
Then there is the IWM which is my favorite indicator. It's been hanging in a range between $182.30 and $186.40 for about a week now making a bear flag on the daily chart, and starting to do the same on the weekly chart, although the weekly chart has some decent tail candles that tested the 50WMA at $181.36. I'll be a buyer of calls at around that price if we find it down there sometime next week, with the knowledge that if it breaks down below that, we are looking at $172.75. A break down below the 50 WMA on an hourly close might be enough for me to bail on the calls and hit the Puts, but that would be like shorting in the hole so the position would be tiny.
Since I discussed my favorite indicator, how is my 2nd favorite indicator doing? The Dow Transports, or $DJT. Its looking just like the IWM with the bear flag thing going on with the daily chart, but a tighter range of 15525 and 15780. BTW the 15525 spot is the top of a break out candle on the weekly chart from 6/26. Is this just a retest, and take off? Maybe, its a piece of the puzzle and noted as it is my 2nd favorite indicator.

**Madison** · 08-28-23, 01:39 PM

Right now it's all about the 10yr and employment. Saw an awesome chart reg the 10yr and its inverse effect on the S&P. 10yr down S&P up. Very compelling. Everything said where's the 10yr headed? Most I peruse says eventually down. That's what the bond people are telling us. I'm not a raging bull but there's a solid argument that we are headed higher??

**d2bets** · 08-28-23, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Right now it's all about the 10yr and employment. Saw an awesome chart reg the 10yr and its inverse effect on the S&P. 10yr down S&P up. Very compelling. Everything said where's the 10yr headed? Most I peruse says eventually down. That's what the bond people are telling us. I'm not a raging bull but there's a solid argument that we are headed higher??

Really? Well, both the 10-year and the S&P are up pretty strong this year.

**d2bets** · 08-29-23, 10:42 AM

Nice rally. Zoom out and that uptrend remains in place. 52-week high 4,607 should get taken out within the next few weeks. Still think ATH is eclipsed before the end of this year.

**Madison** · 08-29-23, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by d2bets

Really? Well, both the 10-year and the S&P are up pretty strong this year.

Not short term. I believe the chart was a 3 or 5 year chart. The evidence was compelling.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-29-23, 01:09 PM

Originally posted by Madison

Not short term. I believe the chart was a 3 or 5 year chart. The evidence was compelling.

Madison, I mentioned that I valued your insights. Any other commentary on the current state of metals?

I am a proponent of Silver/Lithium/Copper. Can't see how it's not good to be invested in metals.

**Madison** · 08-29-23, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Madison, I mentioned that I valued your insights. Any other commentary on the current state of metals?

I am a proponent of Silver/Lithium/Copper. Can't see how it's not good to be invested in metals.

Bud, we are in agreement. SO many different plays? My approach is to spread about. I just bought a little copper COPX. Lithium so many options I've already expressed. I've been waiting patiently for GLD/SLV to drop. Been adding tiny bits here and there. Crushed these a year ago. Just don't miss the Quantum evolution. Quantum will crush decryption and cybersecurity. The 10/100x times returns are here.I should open a new thread. BOL Bud!!

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-29-23, 01:34 PM

Madison, appreciate your insights. My stock returns are smiling today.

Mentioned that my stock knowledge is pretty remedial. Would love to learn more about Quantum.

I've been Dollar Cost averaging on physical Silver the last two years. I don't understand the Au/Ag ratio, Silver price is surely being supressed.

**Madison** · 08-30-23, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Madison, appreciate your insights. My stock returns are smiling today.

Mentioned that my stock knowledge is pretty remedial. Would love to learn more about Quantum.

I've been Dollar Cost averaging on physical Silver the last two years. I don't understand the Au/Ag ratio, Silver price is surely being supressed.

Bud, I'm a former IT person. I spent 6 hours years ago , upon a semi sleepless night a few years ago. There isn't enough Aleve.

What you need to know is Quantum computing will take over the world. It will do nothing but acceralate AI. Pick your poison but you want a play. Start with IONQ.

Quantum computing will destroy ENCRYPTION as we know it. Figure out who has the key and we have the key to $$$. I'm in CRWD and PANW but open to others if someone can offer thoughts.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 08-30-23, 12:16 PM

Salud, Madison. I'm writing down IONQ right now.

I heard about Quantum Computing. It sounds impossible. But then you think about it.

If an algorithm can churn thru a Billion possible combinations per second, then maybe one could slice thru all Passwords in a given amount of time.

**Madison** · 08-30-23, 01:30 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

Salud, Madison. I'm writing down IONQ right now.

I heard about Quantum Computing. It sounds impossible. But then you think about it.

If an algorithm can churn thru a Billion possible combinations per second, then maybe one could slice thru all Passwords in a given amount of time.

Exactly my friend!!

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-01-23, 06:56 AM

If was fun playing the melt up this week, and aside from all the markets climbing up past the point of resistance I touted earlier, its been a good week. Now however we find ourselves at another resistance level going into the holiday. Before the end of the day, I'm buying back half of those Puts I sold about 2 weeks ago, to replenish the pile that I still have from the most recent high points from the end of July. On Tuesday we may get a follow through melt up which would be typical for holiday market action, but after that its downturn time.

**d2bets** · 09-01-23, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

If was fun playing the melt up this week, and aside from all the markets climbing up past the point of resistance I touted earlier, its been a good week. Now however we find ourselves at another resistance level going into the holiday. Before the end of the day, I'm buying back half of those Puts I sold about 2 weeks ago, to replenish the pile that I still have from the most recent high points from the end of July. On Tuesday we may get a follow through melt up which would be typical for holiday market action, but after that its downturn time.

Premarket up again. Meltup play remains in place IMO through new highs. The Fed is likely done. Maybe one last in November and it won't matter.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-01-23, 08:24 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Premarket up again. Meltup play remains in place IMO through new highs. The Fed is likely done. Maybe one last in November and it won't matter.

Good luck with that, I play whatever comes, but for now the charts are telling me to expect some down play starting after the holiday affect. If the markets bust through the gap it is at and the most recent highs, then all of that energy will be released in the upward direction, and I'll be switching or bailing on my short plays.

**Madison** · 09-03-23, 10:50 AM

M2 Money supply

For those of you who don't know what this is or understandably haven't paid any attention, this short read is well worth your time and consideration.

U.S. Money Supply Is Contracting for the First Time Since the Great Depression. Historically, This Is an Ominous Sign for Stocks. (msn.com)

**Madison** · 09-03-23, 11:02 AM

Originally posted by Slurry Pumper

If was fun playing the melt up this week, and aside from all the markets climbing up past the point of resistance I touted earlier, its been a good week. Now however we find ourselves at another resistance level going into the holiday. Before the end of the day, I'm buying back half of those Puts I sold about 2 weeks ago, to replenish the pile that I still have from the most recent high points from the end of July. On Tuesday we may get a follow through melt up which would be typical for holiday market action, but after that its downturn time.

I'm afraid that I'm following suit sentiment wise. I relaxed a lot of my positions 6 or 8 weeks or so ago. See the recent post/article reg M2. There is a lot of convincing data to show that the limits are on the upside and the downside has plenty of room to ease.

**Madison** · 09-03-23, 11:14 AM

Originally posted by d2bets

Premarket up again. Meltup play remains in place IMO through new highs. The Fed is likely done. Maybe one last in November and it won't matter.

One thought to ponder regarding rate reductions if and when they occur. We have been in a "bad news for the economy is good news for equities for some time". I'm just concerned that if and when the cuts come "Supposed good news now gets construed as bad" economically ... lookout recession etc. Something to ponder. Personally my vote is that we have an elongated pause. There is some underlaying sentiment that we are now at historically balanced rates and it wouldn't be a bad thing if we stayed here for awhile. Add to this that we are exiting a 15 year period of unprecedented low interest rates thus artificially inflating the economy.

I could go on but I'll leave it at this for now.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-05-23, 06:17 AM

This week I'll be playing it just like I did at the start of last month; Picking up Puts that expire in either late January or early February while watching and waiting for a topping of the index funds and playing Calls in those funds that expire on Friday. There is a chance the markets can break out here and make a run for the latest high marks from July, but I'm more in the doom and gloom camp. Knowing this I went searching for a glimmer of bullishness this weekend and found it in a pretty strong Weekly chart. The SPY, QQQ, SMH, IWM, XLF, are chugging along the weekly chart in a upward trend. The last couple of weeks had these index funds come back to "Home Base" or the 20 week moving average then a bounce so the trend is your friend until she takes your crap and tosses it out of the front door and all over the front yard.
With this in mind that is why I buy the Puts, but I also put an equal amount in the Calls that expire on a way shorter time frame.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-07-23, 06:05 AM

A couple of down days leaves the markets at a spot where I will buy those calls that expire tomorrow. Hopefully this morning things start with a dip because the bounce into the weekend is on the docket.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-09-23, 06:45 PM

Overall the past week went just like I thought it would, I got a good chance to buy those long term Puts for all the index funds like SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLF, and SMH. Rode it down a little bit the non Thursday the markets were in an "On Time" situation, so I bought those Calls that expire Friday, and while the pop wasn't all that much, a rise is a rise and in option territory that is enough to make so serious percentages.

I'm still in the doom and gloom camp, and my favorite indicator the IWM did indeed close the week below the 20 WMA. That's a thing and I am taking notice. My 2nd favorite indicator $DJT broke down but did manage to bounce off of the 20WMA to close the week above even though the chart still looks weak. Next week, I'll just hang onto those Puts while looking for a direction. The SPY 1st needs to get above that 50 DMA for me to be interested in buying Calls. Dipping below the lows from last week ($442.81ish) may be a sigh to jump on the Puts train for the short term as well. That is a pretty important spot.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-12-23, 06:49 AM

Monday was a non day of trading for me, I think today things will pick up. Is this upward trend on the weekly charts set to continue, or is it rug pull time for the markets. Be aware of both possibilities.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-15-23, 06:52 AM

$453 on th SPY is the last high spot and an important level going into the weekend. The next level at around $460 is even more resistance. Still sitting here with doom and gloom on my mind, but if a breakout occurs, this will be played as well. Right now its a wait and see for me.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-18-23, 07:04 AM

Friday the markets moved down to a spot it was just at a few days ago. The SPY and QQQ are at support spots and the IWM is really looking like it could break down further. As you know I'm in the everything falls apart camp. I have to buy Calls however this morning for at least a day trade. Over all however, I'm in the markets going lower camp here for the next couple of weeks.

**ChuckyTheGoat** · 09-18-23, 07:19 AM

BTC price going north again.

Shout out to my man Madison. LAC price rising. Feel good about holding a nice chunk of LAC.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-19-23, 05:59 AM

A bit of a chop shop going on this week with the Fed coming out Wednesday to announce that he isn't raising rates this time. In the mean time, it's all scalp trading for me.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-21-23, 05:48 PM

Doom and gloom set in pretty good. If you were paying attention things settled right at a level of support. I bought calls right at the close looking for atleast an intranasal bounce tomorrow morning.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-22-23, 05:06 PM

A little 3 dollar pop in the SPY, and QQQ today before reality set in and they gave it all back means I was hanging out studying football by noon. Still have those Puts that expire in Jan, and I think the market is set to drop some more here pretty soon.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-25-23, 06:56 AM

There could be a relief rally to fill the gap from last week, but all in all, I'm still in the doomsday camp here, and will enjoy the ride down when that happens. Of course for intraday trading and possibly a week long swing trade, I'll be buying the Calls. The call buying is more of a lunch money thing just to keep me focused on what is going on... and what is going on is the markets are on the verge of a melt down here. A relief rally would be helped if the dollar starts to fall, and with the looming government shut down, in the backwards market world of good news is bad and bad news is good.
Also looking to start shorting those high flying AI and apple stock. Just stepping my toes in there as these are the darlings of the market this year, and the forces of nature will be trying to hold these up.

**Slurry Pumper** · 09-28-23, 05:31 AM

Short squeeze rally situation going into the week end. I got rid of 3/4 of those PUTS I got and immediately flipped with calls that expire next week.

**Slurry Pumper** · 10-02-23, 06:56 AM

I think we continue with short squeeze sentiment from last Wednesday. Sure Friday gave back some, but that was the budget BS working its way through. If however we find the markets hanging out at the lows from last week, I'll turn and hop on board with the short train, but for now, I expect a rally situation.