Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[stevenash]

[QUOTE=EXhoosier10;23909365
I'm not saying hitters don't see some pitchers better than others. I'm saying you can't predict it.[/QUOTE]
a) you are not trolling, you bring astute counter points to the table, and that is a beautiful thing.
b) I don't claim BvP is the be all end all of all stats, but it's an idication that certain hitters are comfortable against certain pitchers.
When filling out daily fantasy lineups, first two things I go to are, a) is a hamburger starting tonight, if he is, I will consider a middle of the order stack, b) do certain hitters have a large enoguh sample size vs. the opposing pitcher, and if so, does that hitter have stand out numbers, because history does have a tendency to repeat itself.

Maglio Ordonez, my all time favorite *daily fanatasy* player of all time made me so much money.
He was a freak against certain pitchers.
When he announced his retirement, I almost cried.

I used to start Maggs against Santana every time.

Name	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR ▾	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Johan Santana	55	46	18	5	1	5	17	7	10	0.391	0.455	0.87	1.324

Ordonez was a monster against these guys too.

Name	PA	AB	H ▾	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brad Radke	72	69	29	5	0	2	8	2	1	0.42	0.431	0.58	1.01
Scott Baker	52	50	24	4	1	2	11	2	1	0.48	0.5	0.72	1.22
Freddy Garcia	62	55	20	6	1	1	6	7	5	0.364	0.435	0.564	0.999
Kyle Lohse	63	60	20	5	0	4	12	2	8	0.333	0.365	0.617	0.982
Cliff Lee	56	51	19	3	0	1	5	5	8	0.373	0.429	0.49	0.919
CC Sabathia	83	74	19	5	1	3	18	8	10	0.257	0.325	0.473	0.798
Mark Buehrle	43	41	18	2	0	2	5	2	5	0.439	0.465	0.634	1.099
Johan Santana	55	46	18	5	1	5	17	7	10	0.391	0.455	0.87	1.324
Aaron Sele	43	38	17	2	0	1	4	5	4	0.447	0.512	0.579	1.091
Sidney Ponson	41	39	17	3	0	0	8	2	6	0.436	0.463	0.513	0.976
Jeff Suppan	55	48	17	2	0	2	6	6	3	0.354	0.436	0.521	0.957
John Danks	36	35	16	4	0	2	7	1	4	0.457	0.472	0.743	1.215
Tim Wakefield	45	41	16	5	0	2	8	3	4	0.39	0.444	0.659	1.103
Dave Burba	40	36	14	5	0	1	8	4	1	0.389	0.45	0.611	1.061
Jeff Weaver	50	45	14	1	0	3	9	4	4	0.311	0.36	0.533	0.893
Andy Pettitte	42	37	13	2	1	2	6	4	6	0.351	0.429	0.622	1.05

Why wouldn't you start (at short money usually too) Ordonez in these spots?

[stevenash]

What about the umpires squeezing the strike zone in favor of one team? If you go alone with the stats, it is a recipe for a disaster.

When did I ever say BvP is my a) go to stat b) the be all end all stat
I maintain, with a large enough sample size BvP should not be ignored.

Gyrko the other night proved my point, so did Raburn.

All I know is using BvP for the two, I started the two, and cashed a daily for 150 dollars.

[JJJ]

good call on the pirates tonight thanks nashy

[stevenash]

good call on the pirates tonight thanks nashy

Thanks, and Nets covered.
2 for 2 night, starting to breathe that fire again.
Dude, I was in a 2 and 9 tailspin (all sports) last couple of weeks.

[JJJ]

lets get on a run brotha

[Pete0]

Nice hit

[Yoinkerz]

nice pirate hit. but wheres ur other pick. i couldnt figure out. was it on another thread?

[JJJ]

a lot of good day games today

[oldscho0led]

Nasher riding w/ Cubbies today? Just saw the "Fade Locke" thread lol

[Bbfromgpt]

Nasher riding w/ Cubbies today? Just saw the "Fade Locke" thread lol

Not the same Locke this year as we saw when that thread was created two years ago.

[stevenash]

Giants -110 over Rockies

You can't ignore Chris Heston's first three starts.

21 IP in 3 starts (actually 20 2/3)
16 K's
0.87 WH/IP (15 H 5 BB)
0.97 ERA

He faced the Rockies 11 days ago going 7 innings, 1 earned run, 7 hits in a well pitched 2-0 loss in SF.
He beat Arizona and neutralized Goldschmidt twice in 3 weeks for his 2 wins. (He gave up a homer to Peralta last start for his only long ball yielded this season, I know because I had Peralta in a daily that night)

Two items that need adressing.

1) Heston has faced the Rox like I said 11 days ago, so that lineup has seen him and knows what he has arsenal wise but I expect pitching coach Raghetti and Buster Posey to come out with a different approach tonight.

2) Game is in Coors, rarified air and balls travelling an all that, but he's demonstrated he can pitch at this level, if you can't hit him, you can't hit him no matter where the game is, still you can't ignore the Coors factor.

Now, having made those two points, Rockies start Eddie Butler who seems to walk the park.
11 walks in 16 innings (10 K's) is a brutal ratio. Don't be fooled by the 2.25 ERA, that's due to a ridiculous high strand rate, or in other words, he been putting runners on, and getting out of jams.
Once that strand rate neutralizes, that ERA explodes.

Another thing, Butler has not cleared the sixth inning in each of the three starts, throwing 85 or more pitches each time, so more than likely we'll see the Rockie bull pen early, and that unit is not exactly lockdown.

I'm looking for Posey and Pagan (who in the 3 hole could do damage) and scrappy Joe Panik to clog the bases.
I see Justin Maxwell makes a start tonight, would not shock me if Mad Max takes the kid over the wall also, don't sleep on his power.

It just makes too much sense not to play SF tonight, at a 11-10 pick road warrior.

SF goes for 3*

[broadway6]

Why are the Mets +137 with Degrom?

[stevenash]

Why are the Mets +137 with Degrom?

Another question why is the under 7 juiced to the high heavens, as high as under 7 -120 with the winds really blowing hard out to right.
Degrom is legit, but he's not Bob Gibson.

[stevenash]

I can see Harang getting rocked tonight.
I can also see Keuchel and the Astros stealing a game in Oakland.

[RenoHightower]

I coached against Keuchel when he was in HS and I coached Archie when he was in HS...I love backing those 2 guys because they are both fierce competitors. Not really great handicapping there on my part...keep up the good work Nash!

Mets TT Ov 3

[stevenash]

Why are the Mets +137 with Degrom?

I just tweeted my buddy Benjamin Riccardi over at RotoWire, one of the best in the business for his input.

This is what he writes

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/sho...e.htm?id=23527

[stevenash]

I coached against Keuchel when he was in HS and I coached Archie when he was in HS...I love backing those 2 guys because they are both fierce competitors. Not really great handicapping there on my part...keep up the good work Nash!

Mets TT Ov 3

Dallas is a bulldog, I hear he is a good kid too, your input is welcome anytime.
Thanks for the words.

[jjgold]

Nashy I'm expecting big things from you the next five days

Best of luck

[broadway6]

I just tweeted my buddy Benjamin Riccardi over at RotoWire, one of the best in the business for his input.

This is what he writes

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/sho...e.htm?id=23527

article doesn't mention the mets game

[stevenash]

Another game.

I can see Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez and McClutch waking up and rocking the bejessus out of Collmenter and the Snakes too.

-125 on the money line is affordable and +140 as a road fave on the run line is very juicy also.

[stevenash]

article doesn't mention the mets game

I know, it's what Benj does for a living, I want his input on that line.
We're discussing a podcast possibility.

Screams run away from the Mets if you ask me.

[AceChampion]

How bout the over 10 in rockies game?

[stevenash]

Bernie Williams with the first pitch.
Talk about smoother than a fresh jar of Skippy.
Loved #51.
Bernie goes Boom, Bern baby Bern.

[stevenash]

How bout the over 10 in rockies game?

SF team total over might be better.

[AceChampion]

Thanks bro but my book doesn't offer that. I'll try the over..have a decent shot I think. Gl nash

[broadway6]

Why are the Mets +137 with Degrom?

Got my answer quickly

[stevenash]

I see Justin Maxwell makes a start tonight, would not shock me if Mad Max takes the kid over the wall also, don't sleep on his power.

Just saying.

Belt walked.	0	0
Maxwell homered to left, Belt scored.	2	0
McGehee grounded out to pitcher.	2	0
Crawford grounded out to second.	2	0

[Vasco]

What are we looking at this afternoon? Anyone rolling with Texas +135 and Nick Martinez vs Santiago. Indians with Carrasco also looks good.

[stevenash]

Looking at the games now.
Sorry I haven't been around, I got tons of real life shit going on.

[jjgold]

Nashy look at Mets tonight

Look at Chi/incy OVER 7

[stevenash]

The two Mets lines for the first two games has been so out of whack.
-132 is prretty accurate for tonight.
Niese is a so so lefty, Eovaldi throws 100 mph but can be hit.

If you like laying 4:3, NYY is the way to go I think.

[stevenash]

Risky business suggesting the Brewers, but Fiers as a spot play underdog is worth a play.

[jameski999]

Nash where can we find all your plays/leans?

[stevenash]

Here.
I don 't want to do the twitter thing, but I might.

[jameski999]

Archer can't 2 hit this Bluejays lineup again can he?