Nash 2015 MLB Thread

**stevenash** · 04-13-15, 05:17 PM

Tat pretty much hit it on the head.
Not a good idea to use run lines backing a home team, main reason, the home team is not guranteed an at bat in the ninth.
So, let's use the the Tigers for instance.
Detroit at home, say Price versus say Jerome Wiliams of the Phils in an interleague affair.
Williams is a meatball, and you think Detroit will rock them.

Everything goes according to Hoyle.
Price pitches a tidy 8 inning 2 run game, Detroit up 4-2 top of the ninth.
Joe Nathan comes in to face the top of the Philie order.
Swinging bunt single by Ben Revere to lead off the ninth.
He's got speed to burn, and exploits Avilla's arm and steals second.
Nathan gets Herrera to fly out for the first out.
Chase Utley spanks a single up the middle past the diving Kinsler, Revere scores easily. 4-3 now.
Ryan Howard promptly hits a weak ass DP ball to SS 6-4-3 game ending DP, Tigers win, you don't.
You got dicked on the RL at home because you don't get a ninth inning at bat.

Today's game, right now, I got a small 50 dollar to win 65 dollars (+130) with KC and Ace Ventura.
He's up against the hapless Twins, in Minnesota.

1) I got the best bullpen ever assembled working for me.
2) If I get a 2 run lead early, lock it up, that bullpen will close it out.
If the HDH boys gag on a 2 run plus lead against Minny, I'd be shocked.
3) I get a top of the ninth at bat, guaranteed. If I'm winning 5-4, I get a chance for an add on run to win my wager.
Or, I get a ninth inning at bat to increase my multiple run lead.

Let's see how this plays out.
KC is up, 5-3, Duff-man (ooooh yeahhhh) just got pulled for Madson.
Guess who is going to pitch the eighth?
I bet you his name is Wade Davis.
Guess who will pitch the ninth?
I'll take Mr. Holland for 500 please Alex.

Times to bet the run line.

You have an elite pitcher, on the road, and don't like laying -150 with Kershaw, but like +120 - 1.5 runs.
Or, you have an elite team going against a very bad team on the road.

**OckertCR** · 04-13-15, 05:39 PM

Nash you have a lean on Mariners Dodgers later? McCarthy looks like usual dogshit

**stevenash** · 04-13-15, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by OckertCR

Nash you have a lean on Mariners Dodgers later? McCarthy looks like usual dogshit

Conversely, Seattle is not exactly murdering the horsehide either.
Matter of fact, their offense has been complete rubbage the first week.
As a team, M's are batting .201 and the OBA is .244
OBA of .244, are you kidding me?
Their best hitter so far is a Punch and Judy infielder Brad Miller .278
Cruz leads the team with 4 RBI's, putting in perspective, A-Gon had 4 RB's by the 5th inning of the first game.

I don't bet the 'Mariner's bats are due theory.
The 1988 Orioles were due to win a game, 21 times in a row.

LAD or pass.

**stevenash** · 04-13-15, 10:07 PM

Originally posted by Da Manster!

Nash, I think the Yanks are a great play tonight...good value, IMO...Chen is 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA in nine career starts against the Yankees. He's especially struggled against the top of New York's order, with Brett Gardner going 5 for 14 with a homer and two doubles in their matchups, while Jacoby Ellsbury is 6 for 13.He'll be opposed by Michael Pineda, who has been excellent against the Orioles in his career, posting a 1.78 ERA and striking out 25 over 25 1-3 innings in four starts....As usual, posting a real money ticket wager!..

ONLINE
04/13/2015
12:17 PM

STRAIGHT BET

04/13/2015 @ 07:05 PM

MLB

[967] NY YANKEES +105
( M PINEDA -R / W CHEN -L )

384.19

403.40

Well played.
Good job, Miller was amazing.

**Da Manster!** · 04-13-15, 11:12 PM

^^^...thanks Nash!..Yes, Miller did an amazing job out of the bullpen but the biggest difference was Steve Drew's pinch hit grand slam!...

**Vasco** · 04-14-15, 04:16 PM

Greene +110 looks good tonight I think.

**stevenash** · 04-14-15, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by Vasco

Greene +110 looks good tonight I think.

Yeah, he does.

**broadway6** · 04-14-15, 05:57 PM

Orioles TT under 4 for me... (probably a great fade opportunity for everyone)

**Vasco** · 04-14-15, 06:10 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

Yeah, he does.

Anything else stand out in the 8pm games?

**stevenash** · 04-14-15, 06:12 PM

Trying a total tonight

Rangers / Angels under 9 (even) +100

At first glance you say to yourself, no Nash, no. All that firepower.
Betre and Trout and Pujols and all the rest.....

But dig deep.
Angels SP Rucinski is a worm kiler, here's his minor league resume, 10 HR's in 200 IP is 1 every 20 innings, which is very impressive, keeps the ball on the ground, nice K ratio, WH/IP is a little high, analytics show he gives up ground ball singles, keeps the ball in the yard, strikes 'em out.

I know AA ball is not MLB, but I'm just going on the type of pitcher he is. He has 9.3 MLB innings pitched, 12 hits against, 3.8 ERA

Nick Martinez starts for Texas, he is what he is, not elite, not crap, middle of the rotation guy who I trust to keep the Angels at 4 or under.

under 9 +100 3*

2011	MHV	A-	2	0	15	0	25.3	27	5	30	3	58%	.364	9.6	1.8	1.1	10.7	1.26	2.84	3.8	0.4
2011	IND	Rk	1	0	5	0	8.3	8	2	10	0	61%	.355	8.6	2.2	0.0	10.8	1.20	4.32	3.2	0.3
2011	LKC	A	1	0	2	0	3.3	1	3	7	0	50%	.250	2.7	8.1	0.0	18.9	1.20	0.00	1.3	0.1
2013	SBR	A+	2	2	5	5	29.0	29	4	21	0	44%	.326	9.0	1.2	0.0	6.5	1.14	1.86	5.1	0.5
2014	ARK	AA	10	6	26	26	148.7	142	41	140	7	52%	.325	8.6	2.5	0.4	8.5	1.23	3.15	29.0	3.1

**tatddy** · 04-14-15, 06:19 PM

Nash thanks for the good work

**Smoke** · 04-14-15, 06:28 PM

Nashy Cashy

**jjgold** · 04-14-15, 06:28 PM

Nasci hit them hard tonight and then go get laid

**Calgunner23** · 04-14-15, 07:08 PM

Let's get it!!

**Calgunner23** · 04-14-15, 08:26 PM

77 pitches in 2 2/3 innings.. That was brutal to watch.

and that's a loser...

**GT21Megatron** · 04-15-15, 05:39 PM

Like Houston and Rockies Nash....you got anything lined up?

**Da Manster!** · 04-15-15, 09:15 PM

Well I did a small two team parlay...over 8.5 Yanks/O's and over 7 M's/Dodgers....Balty game has already easily gone over!...

...PS...cashed in $700!...

ONLINE
04/15/2015
02:00 AM

PARLAY (2 TEAMS)

04/15/2015 @ 07:15 PM	MLB	[969] TOTAL o8.5 EV (NY YANKEES vrs BAL ORIOLES) ( N EOVALDI -R / B NORRIS -R )
04/15/2015 @ 10:20 PM	MLB	[979] TOTAL o7-125 (SEA MARINERS vrs LA DODGERS) ( T WALKER -R / B ANDERSON -L )

37.59

97.73

**Da Manster!** · 04-16-15, 10:42 AM

it's gonna be a dog day afternoon, folks!...who let the dogs out!...who let the dogs out!...

ONLINE
04/16/2015
11:35 AM

STRAIGHT BET

04/16/2015 @ 01:45 PM

MLB

[901] MIL BREWERS +136
( M FIERS -R / J LACKEY -R )

75.18

102.24

**Vasco** · 04-16-15, 10:44 AM

Like it. Too bad no Gomez but Lackey could still get hit. Nashy lookin' to eat today after a day off?

**Da Manster!** · 04-16-15, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Vasco

Like it. Too bad no Gomez but Lackey could still get hit. Nashy lookin' to eat today after a day off?

I saw that too, Vasco...IMO, that's probably a big reason why the line and price is over-inflated on the Brewers!...Milwaukee has players that have hit Lackey pretty well and Lackey last year was 1 - 1 against the Brewers with a 5.54 era and conversely, Fiers has held the Cards in check going 2 - 1 with a 1.40 era in four starts against them...with those odds and percentages, why not take a shot?!...

**stevenash** · 04-17-15, 04:45 PM

Rays 'pick over NYY

There are two times a month work related matters keeps me away from SBR, they are mid-month 14th-16th, and end of month.

I'm IT geek, that's the busy time when I have to process a bunch of broing reportts and analyze them and exciting stuff like that.

Currently on a two game mini losing streak, that's going to happen 12 times a year to everybody.
Still showing a tiny profit of 1.15 *

Going to try Rays at home a pick 'em over Adam Warren.

I've seen enough of both starting pitchers to have an opinion.
Nate Karns is the better of the two starters here.
Electric fastball, almost 10 per 9 K ratio.
Walk rate a little high, has more than enough stuff to get the NYY lineup out tonight, which is not scary anymore.

Adam Warren is a converted reliever, a contact pitcher pitching to a contact hitting Ray team.
Like Karns, walks 3 per nine as well.

I like the home team at a 'pick in this spot.
Both team aren't winning anything this year, Karns last start was tidy, I like home teams when I can get what I thinl is the better starter at even money.

**iHateBetting12** · 04-17-15, 04:56 PM

Nash 2 quick questions:

1) What's your take on the ATL/BJ's game tonight. Nice price for ATL and Teheran, and leaning that way.

2) COL worth a shot tonight at +230? They have been hitting well and playing well.

Not a huge baseball guy just a dabbler, so your insight is much appreciated.

**jameski999** · 04-17-15, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

There are two times a month work related matters keeps me away from SBR, they are mid-month 14th-16th, and end of month.

I'm IT geek, that's the busy time when I have to process a bunch of broing reportts and analyze them and exciting stuff like that.

Currently on a two game mini losing streak, that's going to happen 12 times a year to everybody.
Still showing a tiny profit of 1.15 *

Going to try Rays at home a pick 'em over Adam Warren.

I've seen enough of both starting pitchers to have an opinion.
Nate Karns is the better of the two starters here.
Electric fastball, almost 10 per 9 K ratio.
Walk rate a little high, has more than enough stuff to get the NYY lineup out tonight, which is not scary anymore.

Adam Warren is a converted reliever, a contact pitcher pitching to a contact hitting Ray team.
Like Karns, walks 3 per nine as well.

I like the home team at a 'pick in this spot.
Both team aren't winning anything this year, Karns last start was tidy, I like home teams when I can get what I thinl is the better starter at even money.

Love the Rays tonight. Karns had a rough 1st inn against Balt, first 4 batters reached base. Gave up a Hr in 2ND INN then settled down and pitched well. Lookin for Karn to bounce back and Rays always play the Yanks tough at home. The Fri night Yanks money seems to be rolling in a little bit was -120 this morning and just sent my bet in at -105. Wouldnt surprise me if Tampa gets pounded here in the next half hour back up to -115/-120. BOL nash

**Emancipator** · 04-17-15, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

There are two times a month work related matters keeps me away from SBR, they are mid-month 14th-16th, and end of month.

I'm IT geek, that's the busy time when I have to process a bunch of broing reportts and analyze them and exciting stuff like that.

Currently on a two game mini losing streak, that's going to happen 12 times a year to everybody.
Still showing a tiny profit of 1.15 *

Going to try Rays at home a pick 'em over Adam Warren.

I've seen enough of both starting pitchers to have an opinion.
Nate Karns is the better of the two starters here.
Electric fastball, almost 10 per 9 K ratio.
Walk rate a little high, has more than enough stuff to get the NYY lineup out tonight, which is not scary anymore.

Adam Warren is a converted reliever, a contact pitcher pitching to a contact hitting Ray team.
Like Karns, walks 3 per nine as well.

I like the home team at a 'pick in this spot.
Both team aren't winning anything this year, Karns last start was tidy, I like home teams when I can get what I thinl is the better starter at even money.

Supposedly smart money has the Yankees. Other than that Yorky is 3 n 6, no reason to not take Karns and Tampa here. BOL Nash.

**GT21Megatron** · 04-17-15, 05:32 PM

Yanks

**stevenash** · 04-17-15, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by iHateBetting12

Nash 2 quick questions:

1) What's your take on the ATL/BJ's game tonight. Nice price for ATL and Teheran, and leaning that way.

2) COL worth a shot tonight at +230? They have been hitting well and playing well.

Not a huge baseball guy just a dabbler, so your insight is much appreciated.

I looked at Altanta game twice.
Said same thing to myself, Braves could give Hutch a nightmare tonight.

Strong lean, OK, I'll bite Braves for a little 1* play

**stevenash** · 04-17-15, 05:52 PM

Originally posted by GT21Megatron

Yanks

I'm a NYY lifelong fan (adopted the Royals along the way)
I think Longo and Des-Jen do damage in the middle of that order.
If Warren can tame the middle of the order, Yanks with Miller at the end can win this game.
Thing is, I don't see Warren shutting down the middle of the order tonight.

**GT21Megatron** · 04-17-15, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by stevenash

I'm a NYY lifelong fan (adopted the Royals along the way)
I think Longo and Des-Jen do damage in the middle of that order.
If Warren can tame the middle of the order, Yanks with Miller at the end can win this game.
Thing is, I don't see Warren shutting down the middle of the order tonight.

Im a line movement guy....if the line doesn't cross over then I do like Rays.....right now it moved back since I posted YANKS

**GT21Megatron** · 04-17-15, 05:57 PM

Might hammer this faker if it stays where it's at

**stevenash** · 04-17-15, 07:46 PM

4-2 middle 5th.

Who has the better middle inning bullpen wins this.
Karns has 100 pitches thrown, he does not see the sixth inning.
Warren after gacking up 4 runs last inning is done you would think.

I like the home teams chances from here on out.

**jameski999** · 04-17-15, 08:18 PM

Arod with 2 jacks didn't see that coming.

**jameski999** · 04-17-15, 08:26 PM

Yanks with 3 hits and 4 runs. FML

**stevenash** · 04-17-15, 08:26 PM

Sweet 6-4-3 DP.
That's how you turn two in the show.

**Da Manster!** · 04-18-15, 11:48 AM

Over 8.5 in the O's/Red Sox game for a nickel!...let's get this fellas!...

Wager type : Straight Bet(s)
#1) Sport : MLB Baseball
Selection : Baltimore Orioles/Boston Red Sox 4/18/2015 1:05PM - (PST)Total Points OVER 8½ -118 for Game
Risking : 590.00 To Win : 500.00 USD

**Jayvegas420** · 04-18-15, 12:28 PM

Any thoughts on the Rangers game?
I saw the Jays total dropped from 8.5 to 8.
I took the over 8.

GL