Top Five Pitchers to Fade and Follow to Open 2009
Top Five Pitchers to Fade and Follow to Open 2009
Every year pitchers come out of the gate yielding huge profits if you can correctly identify which to fade and which to follow before the season begins and before the bookies catch up.
So who will be this year’s cash cows? Only time will tell, but I have a few pointers as to whom you should at least be considering.
TOP FIVE PITCHERS TO FOLLOW
1. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Scholars and fans of the game will remember this name and remember that this guy was great a couple of years ago. But only a few will remember how great he was, as so much information has entered our handicapping brains since then.
Liriano started 2006 in the bullpen, but finally made his first start of the year on May 19th. Over the course of his 15 starts, he was simply masterful: 96.1 IP, 11-3 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 110 strikeouts.
Before the injury that caused him to miss the entire 2007 campaign, Liriano was being slated as the next Johan Santana. His numbers when healthy rival the absolute elite in the game. There is no guarantee that he will return to 2006 form right away, or at all. But each time you bet Liriano in the early stages of the season, you will be getting a potentially dominant, elite pitcher at a bargain-basement price.
2. Max Scherzer, Arizona Diamondbacks
How this kid has managed to stay relatively under the radar is beyond me. In 2007, he dominated the minor leagues to the tune of 106.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131 Ks. Last year in the big leagues, Scherzer started and pitched out of the bullpen, putting together an impressive 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 66 Ks in 56 innings pitched.
Having watched most of his starts last year, I wish I had a better vocabulary to describe how nasty his pitches are. I hate to throw out a name like Tim Lincecum (as Lincecum is in a league of his own), but the name comes to mind.
With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Jon Garland, and Doug Davis, the Diamondbacks boast a strong enough pitching staff to pitch Scherzer fifth in their rotation. He will be a severe mismatch against almost any other end-of-the-rotation pitcher in the game; make sure to cash in on him before the betting public and the bookies catch on to how good he is.
3. John Danks, Chicago White Sox
With the success of teammate Gavin Floyd in 2008, everyone seemed to just clump the two of these guys together, as “that serviceable guy on the White Sox who’s having a good year.” Even the White Sox coupled them together, offering them both the exact same 4-year, $16 million extension. Floyd signed it, Danks did not. The reason; Danks’ agent told him that he could do much better. And I couldn’t agree more.
Taking nothing away from Gavin Floyd who is another good young pitcher, Danks is the better of the two. In fact, he is an excellent pitcher by any standard; lost in the Cliff Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka flurry that was the AL’s pitching last year, Danks pitched 195 innings with a tidy 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 159 Ks. All indications are that he can improve on those numbers this year; he has great stuff and great control to go with it.
In 2010, Danks will be recognized as one of the Top-25 pitchers in baseball. Let’s make some money on him while he’s still just “one of those guys in Chicago.”
4. Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
A highly touted pitching prospect as the ninth overall draft pick in 2005, the towering righty did a whole lot of disappointing to start off his major league career, floundering each opportunity he got in the big leagues in 2006 and 2007 with an ERA over five.
A slow start in 2008 had Pelfrey being slated as a bust, but this time the Mets stuck with him, and it paid off. After a 2-6 start in April and May with hitters hitting over .300 against him, Pelfrey started turning things around in June. From June to August, Pelfrey pitched 113.2 innings with an 11-2 record, 3.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts.
In September he started struggling again, but I give him a pass for that due to fatigue, as he’d never come close to pitching this many innings in a season in his career. Starting off the season poorly and ending the season poorly is a great way to go completely unnoticed by bettors, and most will be fading him if anything. A prospect this highly touted that showed signs of putting it all together last season, pitching for a serious contender with one of the best set-up man/closer combos in the game make Pelfrey well worth a look every time he hits the mound.
5. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
You’d be hard-pressed to find a starting pitcher much unluckier than Kuroda was in 2008. Boasting a perfectly respectable 3.73 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, as well as keeping the ball on the ground very well, Kuroda didn’t receive much run support in 2008 and ended up with a losing record at 9-10.
Putting the win loss record aside, it was an impressive year for Kuroda, a Japanese League import pitching his first year in the major league. He forced a lot of ground balls and didn’t give out many free passes (42). Now with a season of experience against MLB hitters under his belt, no reason why he can’t take a step forward this year.
And with a healthy Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez for the full year, and another year’s worth of experience for young hitters like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, offensive support shouldn’t be a problem for the Dodgers this season.
Look for Kuroda to improve on most of his 2008 stats, and most notably for betting purposes, his win total.
TOP FIVE PITCHERS TO FADE
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
As the natural order of things has to balance itself out, for every unlucky pitcher like Kuroda, we must have a lucky one like Matsuzaka. And I hate to use the term luck as he certainly deserves credit for getting himself out of the jams he put himself into, but a sub-3.00 ERA and an 18-3 record just don’t compute in my head with 94 walks and a WHIP of over 1.30. All it would have taken was a few seeing eye base hits in all of Daisuke’s bases loaded jams to turn that ERA up a few notches and that record down a few.
People will argue the same about Cliff Lee, and many will be fading him; but I will not. I studied his games closely last year as I couldn’t believe the numbers he was putting up, and his recipe for success was pretty simple; control the fastball, throw first pitch strikes, and don’t walk anyone. His stats will likely not stay as super-human as they were last year, but 34 walks and a 1.11 WHIP make a lot more sense with a big winning record and low ERA than Daisuke’s peripherals do.
Don’t get me wrong; Matsuzaka does have lights out stuff and can be dangerous when on. But I believe Matsuzaka’s 2007 ERA of 4.40 was a lot more realistic than last year’s 2.90, and considering Boston already gets inflated numbers against them as they are a big public favorite and Matsuzaka is a household name and was in the running for the Cy Young award last year, there is little doubt that there will be excellent prices on the other team in these match ups.
2. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves
I love strikeouts as much as the next guy. I really do. With over 2000 strikeouts in his 11 year major league career, no one can deny that Vazquez can make batters miss with the best of them.
The problem is, when he isn’t whiffing batters, he’s getting crushed by them. Since his masterful breakout season back in 2003, Vazquez has had an ERA under 4.40 only once, during a very respectable campaign in 2007. In that same 5-year stretch, he’s had three seasons with a record under .500. He gives up way too many home runs, averaging over 27 per season over the course of his career.
People seem willing to ignore his win-loss record, ERA, and WHIP and dub him a great starter due to the fact that he has overpowering stuff. Not me. Back in the NL facing pitchers instead of DHs, no reason to believe the strikeout numbers won’t continue to flourish, and long term the ERA may come down in a relatively pitcher friendly Braves ballpark.
Short term, however, as he struggles to get used to a new bunch of hitters in a very powerful hitting division, his name and strike out totals will provide false favorite lines begging to be faded.
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
Joe Saunders is the type of pitcher that is not overpowering, but will generally pitch well enough to keep his team in the game, as his ERA in the mid-4.00 range over 31 starts in 2006 and 2007 indicated.
Last year his team didn’t let his efforts go to waste, earning him 17 wins in the process. His 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP were certainly enough to stay competitive all year. Saunders pitched wonderfully before the All-Star break, putting together a 12-5 record, 3.07 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP. As the season wound down, he started coming back down to earth at 5-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.34 WHIP post All-Star break.
Saunders will still be a serviceable pitcher this season, but with John Lackey and Ervin Santana both out to start the year, he will be thrust into the spotlight. Assuming he doesn’t fold under all of the added pressure, he will still be going against the opponent’s first or second best starter and will almost always be outclassed in these match ups. Assuming he does fold under the pressure? The term 'easy money' comes to mind.
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
“King” Felix came into the league with about as much hype as a young pitcher can have surrounding him. His rookie season did nothing but fuel the fire, with a razor sharp 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 77 Ks in 84.1 innings.
Since then, he hasn’t been much better than mediocre, struggling with control and simply giving up way too many hits over the last three seasons, yielding 195+ each year. He relies too much on his fastball, and it isn’t as un-hittable as everyone originally thought it was going to be.
Bettors and fans won’t let go of the hype, still seeing his name and thinking this will be the year, or that Seattle is a worthwhile bet as an underdog because he’s pitching. Don’t buy in. Let go. He’s a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. Take advantage of the fact that others will be betting him as their “smart” upset pick, and take the discounted money on the other side.
5. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
Nothing in the way Ryan Dempster pitched last year gave any hints that his season was a fluke. At 17-6, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 187 Ks, Dempster was one of the NL’s best pitchers last year; and pitching for a contender made him even more valuable.
This one is a gut feeling; but more so, it is the skeptic in me screaming that last season was an aberration. Unlike Matsuzaka, Saunders, and Hernandez who all have relatively limited MLB experience that I am basing my speculations on, Dempster has been in the league for 12 years; and hasn’t done a whole lot of impressing.
In seven years as a starter with Florida and Cincinnati, Dempster had only one season in which his ERA was not over 4.70 and his WHIP was not at or over 1.50. That isn’t just bad, it is terrible.
He then had four years in relief, one strong one in 2005, and three mediocre ones. He never had a WHIP lower than 1.34, and in 2006 and 2007, his ERA was at 4.80 and 4.72, respectively.
He makes the conversion to starter, and just like that becomes a reliable ace. Only three of his 11 seasons did he ever have an ERA under 4.70, and just like that, his ERA is under 3.00. Only twice did he have a WHIP under 1.40, and just like that, it is at 1.21.
There are two explanations. Excellent pitching coaching and years of experience finally came together and blossomed Dempster into an elite starting pitcher, or last year was an aberration that will not repeat, especially now that hitters have tape to study on him.
If you love a feel good story, by all means, tail Dempster until he gives you a reason not to. Personally, I’ll be fading him and all that public love the Cubs get.
Every year pitchers come out of the gate yielding huge profits if you can correctly identify which to fade and which to follow before the season begins and before the bookies catch up.
So who will be this year’s cash cows? Only time will tell, but I have a few pointers as to whom you should at least be considering.
TOP FIVE PITCHERS TO FOLLOW
1. Francisco Liriano, Minnesota Twins
Scholars and fans of the game will remember this name and remember that this guy was great a couple of years ago. But only a few will remember how great he was, as so much information has entered our handicapping brains since then.
Liriano started 2006 in the bullpen, but finally made his first start of the year on May 19th. Over the course of his 15 starts, he was simply masterful: 96.1 IP, 11-3 record, 1.96 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 110 strikeouts.
Before the injury that caused him to miss the entire 2007 campaign, Liriano was being slated as the next Johan Santana. His numbers when healthy rival the absolute elite in the game. There is no guarantee that he will return to 2006 form right away, or at all. But each time you bet Liriano in the early stages of the season, you will be getting a potentially dominant, elite pitcher at a bargain-basement price.
2. Max Scherzer, Arizona Diamondbacks
How this kid has managed to stay relatively under the radar is beyond me. In 2007, he dominated the minor leagues to the tune of 106.2 IP, 2.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 131 Ks. Last year in the big leagues, Scherzer started and pitched out of the bullpen, putting together an impressive 3.05 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 66 Ks in 56 innings pitched.
Having watched most of his starts last year, I wish I had a better vocabulary to describe how nasty his pitches are. I hate to throw out a name like Tim Lincecum (as Lincecum is in a league of his own), but the name comes to mind.
With Brandon Webb, Dan Haren, Jon Garland, and Doug Davis, the Diamondbacks boast a strong enough pitching staff to pitch Scherzer fifth in their rotation. He will be a severe mismatch against almost any other end-of-the-rotation pitcher in the game; make sure to cash in on him before the betting public and the bookies catch on to how good he is.
3. John Danks, Chicago White Sox
With the success of teammate Gavin Floyd in 2008, everyone seemed to just clump the two of these guys together, as “that serviceable guy on the White Sox who’s having a good year.” Even the White Sox coupled them together, offering them both the exact same 4-year, $16 million extension. Floyd signed it, Danks did not. The reason; Danks’ agent told him that he could do much better. And I couldn’t agree more.
Taking nothing away from Gavin Floyd who is another good young pitcher, Danks is the better of the two. In fact, he is an excellent pitcher by any standard; lost in the Cliff Lee and Daisuke Matsuzaka flurry that was the AL’s pitching last year, Danks pitched 195 innings with a tidy 3.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and 159 Ks. All indications are that he can improve on those numbers this year; he has great stuff and great control to go with it.
In 2010, Danks will be recognized as one of the Top-25 pitchers in baseball. Let’s make some money on him while he’s still just “one of those guys in Chicago.”
4. Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets
A highly touted pitching prospect as the ninth overall draft pick in 2005, the towering righty did a whole lot of disappointing to start off his major league career, floundering each opportunity he got in the big leagues in 2006 and 2007 with an ERA over five.
A slow start in 2008 had Pelfrey being slated as a bust, but this time the Mets stuck with him, and it paid off. After a 2-6 start in April and May with hitters hitting over .300 against him, Pelfrey started turning things around in June. From June to August, Pelfrey pitched 113.2 innings with an 11-2 record, 3.01 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 68 strikeouts.
In September he started struggling again, but I give him a pass for that due to fatigue, as he’d never come close to pitching this many innings in a season in his career. Starting off the season poorly and ending the season poorly is a great way to go completely unnoticed by bettors, and most will be fading him if anything. A prospect this highly touted that showed signs of putting it all together last season, pitching for a serious contender with one of the best set-up man/closer combos in the game make Pelfrey well worth a look every time he hits the mound.
5. Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
You’d be hard-pressed to find a starting pitcher much unluckier than Kuroda was in 2008. Boasting a perfectly respectable 3.73 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, as well as keeping the ball on the ground very well, Kuroda didn’t receive much run support in 2008 and ended up with a losing record at 9-10.
Putting the win loss record aside, it was an impressive year for Kuroda, a Japanese League import pitching his first year in the major league. He forced a lot of ground balls and didn’t give out many free passes (42). Now with a season of experience against MLB hitters under his belt, no reason why he can’t take a step forward this year.
And with a healthy Rafael Furcal, Manny Ramirez for the full year, and another year’s worth of experience for young hitters like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney, offensive support shouldn’t be a problem for the Dodgers this season.
Look for Kuroda to improve on most of his 2008 stats, and most notably for betting purposes, his win total.
TOP FIVE PITCHERS TO FADE
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston Red Sox
As the natural order of things has to balance itself out, for every unlucky pitcher like Kuroda, we must have a lucky one like Matsuzaka. And I hate to use the term luck as he certainly deserves credit for getting himself out of the jams he put himself into, but a sub-3.00 ERA and an 18-3 record just don’t compute in my head with 94 walks and a WHIP of over 1.30. All it would have taken was a few seeing eye base hits in all of Daisuke’s bases loaded jams to turn that ERA up a few notches and that record down a few.
People will argue the same about Cliff Lee, and many will be fading him; but I will not. I studied his games closely last year as I couldn’t believe the numbers he was putting up, and his recipe for success was pretty simple; control the fastball, throw first pitch strikes, and don’t walk anyone. His stats will likely not stay as super-human as they were last year, but 34 walks and a 1.11 WHIP make a lot more sense with a big winning record and low ERA than Daisuke’s peripherals do.
Don’t get me wrong; Matsuzaka does have lights out stuff and can be dangerous when on. But I believe Matsuzaka’s 2007 ERA of 4.40 was a lot more realistic than last year’s 2.90, and considering Boston already gets inflated numbers against them as they are a big public favorite and Matsuzaka is a household name and was in the running for the Cy Young award last year, there is little doubt that there will be excellent prices on the other team in these match ups.
2. Javier Vazquez, Atlanta Braves
I love strikeouts as much as the next guy. I really do. With over 2000 strikeouts in his 11 year major league career, no one can deny that Vazquez can make batters miss with the best of them.
The problem is, when he isn’t whiffing batters, he’s getting crushed by them. Since his masterful breakout season back in 2003, Vazquez has had an ERA under 4.40 only once, during a very respectable campaign in 2007. In that same 5-year stretch, he’s had three seasons with a record under .500. He gives up way too many home runs, averaging over 27 per season over the course of his career.
People seem willing to ignore his win-loss record, ERA, and WHIP and dub him a great starter due to the fact that he has overpowering stuff. Not me. Back in the NL facing pitchers instead of DHs, no reason to believe the strikeout numbers won’t continue to flourish, and long term the ERA may come down in a relatively pitcher friendly Braves ballpark.
Short term, however, as he struggles to get used to a new bunch of hitters in a very powerful hitting division, his name and strike out totals will provide false favorite lines begging to be faded.
3. Joe Saunders, Los Angeles Angels
Joe Saunders is the type of pitcher that is not overpowering, but will generally pitch well enough to keep his team in the game, as his ERA in the mid-4.00 range over 31 starts in 2006 and 2007 indicated.
Last year his team didn’t let his efforts go to waste, earning him 17 wins in the process. His 3.41 ERA and 1.21 WHIP were certainly enough to stay competitive all year. Saunders pitched wonderfully before the All-Star break, putting together a 12-5 record, 3.07 ERA, and 1.13 WHIP. As the season wound down, he started coming back down to earth at 5-2, 3.94 ERA, 1.34 WHIP post All-Star break.
Saunders will still be a serviceable pitcher this season, but with John Lackey and Ervin Santana both out to start the year, he will be thrust into the spotlight. Assuming he doesn’t fold under all of the added pressure, he will still be going against the opponent’s first or second best starter and will almost always be outclassed in these match ups. Assuming he does fold under the pressure? The term 'easy money' comes to mind.
4. Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
“King” Felix came into the league with about as much hype as a young pitcher can have surrounding him. His rookie season did nothing but fuel the fire, with a razor sharp 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and 77 Ks in 84.1 innings.
Since then, he hasn’t been much better than mediocre, struggling with control and simply giving up way too many hits over the last three seasons, yielding 195+ each year. He relies too much on his fastball, and it isn’t as un-hittable as everyone originally thought it was going to be.
Bettors and fans won’t let go of the hype, still seeing his name and thinking this will be the year, or that Seattle is a worthwhile bet as an underdog because he’s pitching. Don’t buy in. Let go. He’s a good pitcher, not a great pitcher. Take advantage of the fact that others will be betting him as their “smart” upset pick, and take the discounted money on the other side.
5. Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs
Nothing in the way Ryan Dempster pitched last year gave any hints that his season was a fluke. At 17-6, 2.96 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 187 Ks, Dempster was one of the NL’s best pitchers last year; and pitching for a contender made him even more valuable.
This one is a gut feeling; but more so, it is the skeptic in me screaming that last season was an aberration. Unlike Matsuzaka, Saunders, and Hernandez who all have relatively limited MLB experience that I am basing my speculations on, Dempster has been in the league for 12 years; and hasn’t done a whole lot of impressing.
In seven years as a starter with Florida and Cincinnati, Dempster had only one season in which his ERA was not over 4.70 and his WHIP was not at or over 1.50. That isn’t just bad, it is terrible.
He then had four years in relief, one strong one in 2005, and three mediocre ones. He never had a WHIP lower than 1.34, and in 2006 and 2007, his ERA was at 4.80 and 4.72, respectively.
He makes the conversion to starter, and just like that becomes a reliable ace. Only three of his 11 seasons did he ever have an ERA under 4.70, and just like that, his ERA is under 3.00. Only twice did he have a WHIP under 1.40, and just like that, it is at 1.21.
There are two explanations. Excellent pitching coaching and years of experience finally came together and blossomed Dempster into an elite starting pitcher, or last year was an aberration that will not repeat, especially now that hitters have tape to study on him.
If you love a feel good story, by all means, tail Dempster until he gives you a reason not to. Personally, I’ll be fading him and all that public love the Cubs get.
