Originally posted by smitch124
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Was just reading something on this... they were saying that his HR-to-flyball ratio was much lower than it should have been, and if it corrects itself this year and more balls start leaving the yard, he may not get the "unlucky" benefit of the doubt anymore.Comment -
I like it. Never a golden rule, but it is insane how many pitchers we have seen burst into the league with a great rookie or sophomore campaign only to come crashing hard down to earth in the year or two following.Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
Well a lot of flyballs die at A T & T and he can get away with it at home. I'm beginning to believe more and more that he contributes to his lack of luck by walking too many guys, getting his pitch count up and exposing too much of the game to the horrible Giants bullpenOriginally posted by VegasDaveComment -
Smitch how many homers does Ishakawa hit this year???
I have him at 28
your thoughts?Comment -
I would say less than 20, A T & T is a horrible home run park for left-handers. Barry Bonds is the only one who could hit homers there.Originally posted by Chi_archie
I doubt that Todd Helton or Larry Walker could describe the park without an expletive in the 1st 5 words.Comment -
Look at his home/away splits last year...Comment -
burnett is always a fade.Comment -
He was one of my "honorable mention" candidates, as was Andy Pettitte.Originally posted by austintx05Comment -
That is a bold prediction my friend!Originally posted by Chi_archieComment -
Hmm, I don't know. Really too early for lists such as this as it's not known what the market will be for each pitcher/team. But if I had to guess, I'd disagree with a few. Liriano will be priced as an ace. Was a few starts after his call-up last season, will continue to be this year. You're not getting Liriano at a "bargain-basement price". Not sure why you'd even suggest that.
Same holds true for Scherzer, although not to the degree of Liriano. Everyone know follows baseball knows how good he is/will be. And the lines reflected his considerable talents last year.
Not high on Pelfrey or Kuroda.
Love Danks.
Agree with your thoughts on Daisuke.
Dempster definitely take a step back, probably a major one.Comment -
If I started a list, would look something like this:
Undervalued
Chris Volstad - FLA
Andrew Miller - FLA
Johnny Cueto - CIN
Micah Owings - CIN
Kevin Slowey - MIN
David Purcey - TOR
Nick Adenhart - LAA
Brandon McCarthy - TEX
Sean Gallagher - OAK
Luke Hochevar - KC
Overvalued
Matsuzaka - BOS
Dempster - CHC
Carlos Zambrano - CHC
Jon Garland - ARZ
Mark Buehrle - CHW
Derek Lowe - ATL
Justin Verlander - DET
Armando Galarraga - DET
Kyle Lohse - STL
Edinson Volquez - CIN
Andy Sonnanstine - TB
Andy Pettitte - NYYComment -
Great info guys. Will be referring back to this thread throughout April.
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Great addition rjt. While I don't agree with all of the names on your list, it is still a pretty sharp list. Definitely agree with Adenhart, Slowey, and Volstad.
The term bargain-basement was a bit too much of an exaggeration, you are right. But the point I was trying to make was that he and Scherzer will be available at a discounted price IN RELATION to their potential/talent. While I agree that bookies will not be giving away free money to bet on Scherzer, he will not get odds comparable to Webb, Haren, and other aces around the league right out of the gate, because he is an unproven commodity.
If I am mistaken and he and Liriano both come out in every game as MASSIVE favorites, you are right, there won't be much value there. Speculating on my part, I don't see these two coming out getting Top 15 SP type chalk against them.
Regardless though, your post illustrates a very valid point; blindly fading anyone is a bad idea. Actually paying close attention to the numbers instead of just auto-betting certain pitchers is important.Comment -
follow lincecum, santana, matt cain, galaraga
fade sabathia, burnett,Comment -
yeah good stuff.. guys keep it coming...
also I like to have good hitting pitchers in the National league... so alot of people are down on Zambrano...but damn if he doesn't win 2 or 3 games a year with his bat alone..... loved to take the over with Marquis on the mound due to his hitability and his hitting prowess
the over with owings... not sure If i'd tail him on the game though ect..Comment -
Hmm, hadn't thought of capping good hitting pitches this way. Good stuff.Originally posted by Chi_archie
Dontrelle used to hit pretty well back in Florida.Comment -
sharp list rjt
you included purcey.Comment -
Man, when guys like Vegas Dave start thinking critically we're all screwed.
I'm curious to see what kind of lines Volquez draws.bird bird da bird's da wordComment -
Great name to bring up! I get the impression he'll probably be overvalued due to the brilliant start last year, but the Reds in general will likely be undervalued this year, so I wonder if it will balance out?Originally posted by reno coolMan, when guys like Vegas Dave start thinking critically we're all screwed.
I'm curious to see what kind of lines Volquez draws.Comment -
mixed results so farComment -
More bad then good...
Injuries haven't helped, Daisuke and Kuroda both on the DL (both were looking like I was on the right track) and Pelfrey pitching through elbow tendinitis since the Mets staff is so thin.
Liriano has not looked like his old self AT ALL, he just doesn't have the speed and movement on his pitches anymore, it isn't even close.
Felix has pitched fvcking brilliantly, happy to be wrong about this one though. Wish nothing but the best to good young pitchers.Comment -
Greinke has personally won me 4 units this year.Comment
