Whoever Takes the OVER or UNDER in New England and Indy, Can You REALLY Be Confident?

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  • Seaweed
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 01-19-12
    • 26320

    #1
    Whoever Takes the OVER or UNDER in New England and Indy, Can You REALLY Be Confident?
    I don't think so. Either bet is square.
  • Dirty Sanchez
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-01-10
    • 16031

    #2
    Originally posted by Seaweed
    I don't think so. Either bet is square.
    Coming from you that means nothing....Seahorse
    Comment
    • Seaweed
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 01-19-12
      • 26320

      #3
      Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez
      Coming from you that means nothing....Seahorse
      Means something to me
      Comment
      • sneakerhead
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 07-14-10
        • 7727

        #4
        Nobody cares what you think
        Comment
        • Seaweed
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 01-19-12
          • 26320

          #5
          Originally posted by sneakerhead
          Nobody cares what you think
          Sharps do
          Comment
          • NavsPicks
            SBR MVP
            • 10-16-12
            • 3344

            #6
            So they can fade you lol
            Comment
            • Booya711
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-20-11
              • 27364

              #7
              Originally posted by Seaweed
              Sharps do
              too bad you dont know any
              Comment
              • Seaweed
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 01-19-12
                • 26320

                #8
                Originally posted by Booya711
                too bad you dont know any
                I see one every morning when I look in the mirror...."booya"!
                Comment
                • Booya711
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 12-20-11
                  • 27364

                  #9
                  another seaweed burial thread..so many
                  Comment
                  • Booya711
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-20-11
                    • 27364

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Seaweed
                    I see one every morning when I look in the mirror...."booya"!
                    isnt it hard to see yourself with a bag on your head?
                    Comment
                    • paco
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 05-07-09
                      • 62873

                      #11
                      Game prolly be a snoozer with fG's and turnovers
                      Comment
                      • Seaweed
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 01-19-12
                        • 26320

                        #12
                        Originally posted by paco
                        Game prolly be a snoozer with fG's and turnovers
                        sharp
                        Comment
                        • odog11
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-14-11
                          • 3874

                          #13
                          Under ain't square, but certainly would not feel safe with it.
                          Comment
                          • stevenash
                            Moderator
                            • 01-17-11
                            • 66106

                            #14
                            58.5 under is a solid bet.

                            1) Pats pass defense is very good. Luck isn't going to get his 300 yards tonight.
                            Oh sure, he'll get some, just not 300. Pats are a top ten defensive team in the NFL

                            2) Indy defense isn't that bad either, they are in the top half in most categories.

                            3) Do the math, each team will get 12 to 13 possesions, because that's what all teams usually get.
                            So, to get to 59 points, you would need a minimum of 7 TD's.
                            Don't see 7 TD's combined in this sixty minute contest.
                            How often is there a 7 TD game? Maybe one game in 7 has 7 TD's in it.
                            Not happening in this game.
                            Comment
                            • TwoWays
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-24-10
                              • 13145

                              #15
                              300yds for lick is a given. Those fckers love tossing the ball around, especially if they fall behind early. Gambling mentally they have there in indy
                              Comment
                              • stevenash
                                Moderator
                                • 01-17-11
                                • 66106

                                #16
                                ^
                                Do the math.
                                59 points is a difficult number to achieve in the NFL.
                                This is not the NCAA, clock doesn't stop on first down.
                                You need scoring on most every possesion.

                                LOVE THE UNDER
                                LOVE IT
                                Comment
                                • stevenash
                                  Moderator
                                  • 01-17-11
                                  • 66106

                                  #17
                                  The game starts with the first of 10.5 kickoffs. My apologies in advance if you like returns, because 5.7 of those kickoffs will be touchbacks. Of the plays you will see this afternoon, there will be 80.5 passes and 53.1 runs, so I hope you enjoy passing. From those 80.5 passes, 5.4 will result in sacks, all of which will be immediately followed by a very large man dancing as if he were a much smaller man. The remaining 30.9 plays will be kickoffs, punts, field-goal attempts or kneel-downs.

                                  There will be 133.6 "regular" plays (runs or passes). Just fewer than seven percent will be for 20 yards or more (about nine plays), meaning a vast majority of plays will be conveniently confined to the width of the play-by-play camera angle. Sixty-five percent -- or 87.9 plays -- of runs or passes will gain yards; 11.1 runs (21 percent) will be stuffed for no gain or a loss; 45.9 (57 percent) pass attempts will gain yards and 22.8 (a little more than 28 percent) will be for longer than 10 yards.

                                  There will be a total of 24.7 possessions, or about 12 per team and 3.2 of them (13 percent) will end in turnovers. There will be 2.3 fumbles, but only 1.2 of those fumbles (50.7 percent) will be lost (because fumbles are recovered randomly, as these numbers demonstrate). Two interceptions will be thrown. There will be 3.1 passing touchdowns and 1.6 rushing touchdowns. You can expect a defensive touchdown every other game. There will be 10.3 punts -- 2.5 of them will be fair caught -- and of the 4.1 field-goal attempts, 3.6 (87 percent) will be made.

                                  The game will be stopped. A lot. There will be 8.9 penalties and 1.6 reviews and about 55 percent will come from the replay booth. Of the reviews triggered by the replay booth, 58 percent will be upheld. Coach's challenges will be more successful, as just less than half will be upheld. These reviews will take a total of 3 minutes and 30 seconds, or 2:08 per review (this data comes from my own timing of 48 reviews this year).
                                  Comment
                                  • paco
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 05-07-09
                                    • 62873

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by paco
                                    Game prolly be a snoozer with fG's and turnovers
                                    Comment
                                    • stevenash
                                      Moderator
                                      • 01-17-11
                                      • 66106

                                      #19
                                      This game has no prayer of going 'over'

                                      The sharp bet was under.
                                      Too easy
                                      Comment
                                      • TwoWays
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-24-10
                                        • 13145

                                        #20
                                        Nat, luck has 100!yds passing already
                                        Comment
                                        • captrobey
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 09-02-10
                                          • 34395

                                          #21
                                          yea not feeling good on the Over this game has pretty much been a joke for the Over. They move the ball to the 40-50 then give it away each time . No big plays deep either
                                          Comment
                                          • paco
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 05-07-09
                                            • 62873

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                            This game has no prayer of going 'over'

                                            The sharp bet was under.
                                            Too easy
                                            Common sense bet. Highest total in almost 10 sometimg years
                                            Comment
                                            • captrobey
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 09-02-10
                                              • 34395

                                              #23
                                              Huge TD at least to keep the Over alive would be great to get something from a good return
                                              Comment
                                              • R.P. McMurphy
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 06-15-12
                                                • 9654

                                                #24
                                                Under backers were on the "sharp" side here. But as o.p. stated how could either side feel very comfortable with these 2 qb's in a dome nonetheless. 58 a crazy high # for Nfl bit not like 37-31 games don't often happen in these type games. If Pats get a td here un backers will be reaching for their Aleve, whiskey, gun or all 3....
                                                Comment
                                                • TwoWays
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-24-10
                                                  • 13145

                                                  #25
                                                  You can watch the whole game with an over wager
                                                  Comment
                                                  • R.P. McMurphy
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 06-15-12
                                                    • 9654

                                                    #26
                                                    No prayer Nasher?!?
                                                    Comment
                                                    • captrobey
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 09-02-10
                                                      • 34395

                                                      #27
                                                      I was hoping they score before the end of the 3RD but still Over looking Way better then it did especially if they get down 1 score and manage to come back and tie it with a 2-Pt Conversion .
                                                      Comment
                                                      • captrobey
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 09-02-10
                                                        • 34395

                                                        #28
                                                        Need 3 for a Push still plenty of time left
                                                        Comment
                                                        • captrobey
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 09-02-10
                                                          • 34395

                                                          #29
                                                          And there is the Over !!!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • TwoWays
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-24-10
                                                            • 13145

                                                            #30
                                                            Oh, luck has over 300 yds
                                                            Comment
                                                            • lesterdymond
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 07-25-11
                                                              • 2353

                                                              #31
                                                              Overs have buried me for sometime now. The game is changing and we have to adjust to it. I've been a stubborn under bettor but it has costed me a profitable year in football. I'm officially done with totals in the NFL.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • vividjohn45
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 11-21-10
                                                                • 6331

                                                                #32
                                                                Over my biggest play of day.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • vividjohn45
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 11-21-10
                                                                  • 6331

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by stevenash
                                                                  This game has no prayer of going 'over'

                                                                  The sharp bet was under.
                                                                  Too easy
                                                                  Prime time games arent even analyzed. You just bet over and large.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • vividjohn45
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 11-21-10
                                                                    • 6331

                                                                    #34
                                                                    That late intercepted 1h pass turned td put the.over on target. Happens all the time in primetime. Intercepted around other teams 20 td scored in less then a minute. Seen it all season. This is how the over. Occurs despite all the analysis. Kc ne was a under 3 turnovers in third. Caused under.to go over. Fumble fingers.houston vs pitt. Under , on til end.of 1h. Gave steelers 14.points in 30 seconds by turnovers. Under no thanks in primetime.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • agendaman
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-01-11
                                                                      • 3766

                                                                      #35
                                                                      vegas trap on 58.5 sharps lost big there but books also cleaned up on saints losing-denver losing the nfl is very tough to beat over the long haul
                                                                      Comment
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