Why does everyone think Florida State loses tonight?

[daneblazer]

54
Murray State
67
122
125
87
53
73

That's the rankings of the offenses the #1 ranked Louisville defense has played. Those offenses haven't exactly faced a murderers row of defenses either. They aren't a #1 defense, but they are still good because they're still living off of Charlie Strong's coaching and players...but big Todd's defenses crumble once they face teams that can actually pass the ball.

[LT Profits]

54
Murray State
67
122
125
87
53
73

That's the rankings of the offenses the #1 ranked Louisville defense has played. Those offenses haven't exactly faced a murderers row of defenses either. They aren't a #1 defense, but they are still good because they're still living off of Charlie Strong's coaching and players...but big Todd's defenses crumble once they face teams that can actually pass the ball.

You are conveniently ignoring that the Louisville defense FAR out-performed the Florida State vs. the common opponents they have faced so far (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse off top of my head, that may be it) so SOS becomes a moot point now anyway. Besides DFEI is schedule adjusted.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

Florida St. knows how to handle distractions and knows how to win; I'm waiting for this to go down to 3 then I'm gonna fire away. Might go on 3.5 if it doesn't get there.

[daneblazer]

I doubt Clemson would have covered anyway considering Louisville was one yard away from winning the game at the end.

Whole reason they came 1 yard away is because the Clemson Qb got knocked out in the 2nd quarter. Clemson would have won by double digits. You ought to know once a starting Qb gets knocked out, it usually changes the entire complexion of an offense. Guess it's opinion though...moot now

[LT Profits]

Whole reason they came 1 yard away is because the Clemson Qb got knocked out in the 2nd quarter. Clemson would have won by double digits. You ought to know once a starting Qb gets knocked out, it usually changes the entire complexion of an offense. Guess it's opinion though...moot now

And at what point was Watson knocked out? Because Clemson did not score a touchdown the ENTIRE game.

[jtoler]

The thing is FSU knows they have to win this game in order to be in playoff, win this and its easier from here on ut, but you HAVE to win this one, theyve come through in alot of close games over the last two years, nobody has shown as much poise when down as Jameis.

[daneblazer]

You are conveniently ignoring that the Louisville defense FAR out-performed the Florida State vs. the common opponents they have faced so far (Clemson, NC State, Syracuse off top of my head, that may be it) so SOS becomes a moot point now anyway. Besides DFEI is schedule adjusted.

And none of those teams can pass. I watched big Todd for 4 long years in the SEC. His defenses have no answer for teams that can pass the ball. Enter team that can pass the ball.

[LT Profits]

The thing is FSU knows they have to win this game in order to be in playoff, win this and its easier from here on out, but you HAVE to win this one, yheyve come through in alot of close games over the last two years, nobody has shown as much poise when down as Jameis.

But they have not faced a defense this good since the beginning of last year either.

[pavyracer]

Give Jimbo 10 days to practice and he will destroy you. Louisville has no chance.

[bumppinee]

This game is going to go down just like last year when FSU played Clemson at home everyone predicted a close game and FSU straight blowed them out.

[daneblazer]

And at what point was Watson knocked out? Because Clemson did not score a touchdown the ENTIRE game.

Middle of the 1st quarter. I don't think this reincarnation of the 85 Bears defense would have shut them down with him in there the entire game.

[LT Profits]

And none of those teams can pass. I watched big Todd for 4 long years in the SEC. His defenses have no answer for teams that can pass the ball. Enter team that can pass the ball.

I wish footballoutsiders broke out rushing efficiency and passing efficiency. Maybe they do but I can't find it.

[Booya711]

How about that Wake Forest powerhouse that had a 10-7 lead after 3 quarters at LOUISVILLE...

[LT Profits]

This game is going to go down just like last year when FSU played Clemson at home everyone predicted a close game and FSU straight blowed them out.

There is no comparison between Clemson's defense last year and Louisville's this year. I think everyone will agree this will be Noles' stiffest test in two years, not even Auburn had a good defense last year.

[daneblazer]

I think Louisville could cover, but it would be mostly because their offense is getting healthier and FSU is banged up. I have FSU -3 though. I'm not fading Jameis yet.

[LT Profits]

How about that Wake Forest powerhouse that had a 10-7 lead after 3 quarters at LOUISVILLE...

Louisville had no offense that game, Gardner and Parker were out and it was Dyer's first game of the year. Last week was the first time all three played together. And that is not really the point, the defense plays like that all the time, that's all you can ask for it to give the offense a chance to get its act together.

[Booya711]

Bottom line is it should be a good game...and if FSU loses the top four will be all SEC for the time being as alabama would move up

[GT21Megatron]

And for those discounting Louisville's schedule, their defensive numbers are validated by leading the entire country in raw defensive efficiency and in DFEI, which is schedule adjusted defensive efficiency. And besides, no validation should be necessary when comparing the performances of these defenses vs. common opponents so far.

LT. That stat is a bunch of garbage. Look at who is second on that list. Vt. How has thay worked out all season long?

[GT21Megatron]

Clemson played Louisville without there first string QB. When Clemson played FSU there first string QB was in and FSU was playing with a backup who had never started before in his life.

[ringemup]

Here is my take on this game. The Noles face one last test before the ACC Championship. So far FSU has kept winning although theyve had close-calls vs NC ST. and ND which they couldve lost easily. Louisville on the other side comes in with 2 close losses all away from home to UVA and CLEMSON.

FSU has used the aerial attack to pace the offense behind Winston with a running game thats struggled to produce at 104th RYPG. Defensively, FSU has done enough to win games but the loss of NFL talent at key positions has brought them down a notch. Louisville comes in with a middle-of-the-pack offense but do have a big weapon with Parker back at WR. Defensively Louisville is at its strongest molded by Charlie Strong's days developing an attacking mentality thats rewarded this unit by playing physical, TO-machine prone defense. You can compare them to stifling defenses of the SEC in terms of talent , athleticism, and play-hard and fast philosophy.

From watching the two teams up to this point its tough to lean one way than the other but based on some troubling signs from FSU in inconsistent O-LINE play and nno identity in the run game I expect Louisville to attack the line of scrimmage as well as roll coverage towards Greene who Winston likes to go to. This yr they dont have the luxury of a 6'5'' WR Benjamin who left for NFL early. On offense I like Louisville to establish Dyer on the ground early while taking some shots down the field w/ Parker back. I expect a grind-out defensive game but like Lousvilles ability to match up defensively vs the Noles and create short-field opportunities to cash in. Take Louisville +3.5, ML +155.

[LT Profits]

LT. That stat is a bunch of garbage. Look at who is second on that list. Vt. How has thay worked out all season long?

That's because VT's offense is in the 100s. You have to score SOME points no matter how great your defense is.

[LT Profits]

And footballoutsiders is far from garbage, it is like the Pomeroy of college football.

[navyblue81]

How about that Wake Forest powerhouse that had a 10-7 lead after 3 quarters at LOUISVILLE...

The same Wake Forest team that Florida State struggled in the first half with at home? It was 6-3 FSU deep into the first half.

My point is this....FSU may win, but let's not be stupid and pretend like Louisville has no chance. Vegas is not stupid. They set this line at -6 for a reason, and it's come down for a reason.

[Smoke]

Gotta agree with LT here this wreaks of an upset althought the points are golden

[mcdonae101]

the books will just have to take my money if fsu loses. Im taking them on the ml

[jtoler]

Funny everyone talking about Ville D lets you know they dont think much about their offense.

[jtoler]

The same Wake Forest team that Florida State struggled in the first half with at home? It was 6-3 FSU deep into the first half.

My point is this....FSU may win, but let's not be stupid and pretend like Louisville has no chance. Vegas is not stupid. They set this line at -6 for a reason, and it's come down for a reason.

Vegas didnt and dont do nothing, ratings basically made the number its not like 6 is a small number it should have opened at about 4 based on ratings as usual the oddsmaker is greedy and put at 6 anticipating 7 mostly.

[LT Profits]

Bottom line is it should be a good game...and if FSU loses the top four will be all SEC for the time being as alabama would move up

I don't think so, Auburn / Mississippi loser moves down and I don't think there were more SEC teams directly behind Alabama. If Oregon beats Stanford, they replace Aub/Ole Miss loser.

[3runhomer]

I agree...there is so much "will" for FSU to lose, people start making themselves see things!

FSU wins this game, and pulls away 2nd half very comfortably.

[BettingWizard]

LT just be happy that bigdaddy is disagreeing with us

[BettingWizard]

Funny everyone talking about Ville D lets you know they dont think much about their offense.

Parker will dominate tonight

[GT21Megatron]

Parker will dominate tonight

Like the Knicks last night?

[Booya711]

I don't think so, Auburn / Mississippi loser moves down and I don't think there were more SEC teams directly behind Alabama. If Oregon beats Stanford, they replace Aub/Ole Miss loser.

ahh your right...forgot that Auburn played Mississippi this week...

[jjgold]

It does seem many sharps on Louisville

Most square money on Flor St

Let's so how good Louisville is

[chico2663]

aauburn is going to neat the hell out of ole miss