Should I hedge? Pittsburgh +3.5 last leg of a 3 team parlay

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  • seaborneq
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 09-08-06
    • 22556

    #1
    Should I hedge? Pittsburgh +3.5 last leg of a 3 team parlay
    Feedback. Or let it ride?
  • Jrod124
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 10-31-09
    • 5622

    #2
    let it ride dipshit
    Comment
    • ChiLLx
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-24-11
      • 5412

      #3
      Absolutely do not hedge.
      Comment
      • seaborneq
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 09-08-06
        • 22556

        #4
        Originally posted by Jrod124
        let it ride dipshit
        Will do jackass.
        Comment
        • Ra77er
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 06-20-11
          • 10969

          #5
          Comment
          • Dirty Sanchez
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-01-10
            • 16031

            #6
            Watch Colts rail them by 20
            Comment
            • seaborneq
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-08-06
              • 22556

              #7
              Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez
              Watch Colts rail them by 20
              Dirty, wouldn't surprise me one bit. This is gambling................not tiddlywinks.
              Comment
              • Dirty Sanchez
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 03-01-10
                • 16031

                #8
                Originally posted by seaborneq
                Dirty, wouldn't surprise me one bit. This is gambling................not tiddlywinks.
                I agree...my system has Colts by 8...but what the heck do I know
                Comment
                • seaborneq
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-08-06
                  • 22556

                  #9
                  Yes I'm shocked by the first half score. But no one can hold a lead anymore. Sanchez they are "getting railed" by nearly 20
                  Comment
                  • seaborneq
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 09-08-06
                    • 22556

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Dirty Sanchez
                    I agree...my system has Colts by 8...but what the heck do I know
                    Tweak your system a little bit Sanchez. It was off by a whole heap a bunch.
                    Comment
                    • texhooper
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-05-09
                      • 10001

                      #11
                      so did you let it ride?
                      Comment
                      • Ra77er
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 06-20-11
                        • 10969

                        #12
                        Comment
                        • texhooper
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-05-09
                          • 10001

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Ra77er
                          You know he hedged that shit
                          sshhhhhh...i want to see what he says...
                          Comment
                          • STAX
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-01-13
                            • 3718

                            #14
                            who hedges a 3 teamer?
                            Comment
                            • ChiLLx
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-24-11
                              • 5412

                              #15
                              Why the colts were favored by 4 points is a total mystery to me.
                              Comment
                              • seaborneq
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 09-08-06
                                • 22556

                                #16
                                Originally posted by texhooper
                                so did you let it ride?
                                Sure did.
                                Comment
                                • seaborneq
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 09-08-06
                                  • 22556

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by STAX
                                  who hedges a 3 teamer?
                                  Someone who wants to win money
                                  Comment
                                  • thfootball
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-16-11
                                    • 1771

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by seaborneq
                                    Someone who wants to win money
                                    Comment
                                    • Double Bogey
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 07-24-10
                                      • 1465

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by seaborneq
                                      Someone who wants to win money
                                      False. You lose money long term
                                      Comment
                                      • texhooper
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-05-09
                                        • 10001

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by seaborneq
                                        Sure did.
                                        nice!
                                        Comment
                                        • seaborneq
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 09-08-06
                                          • 22556

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Double Bogey
                                          False. You lose money long term
                                          95% of us lose money gambling long term. You win when you can or keep from losing it all as much as you can.
                                          Comment
                                          • STAX
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-01-13
                                            • 3718

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by seaborneq
                                            Someone who wants to win money
                                            then play a 2 teamer and save half the juice
                                            Comment
                                            • seaborneq
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 09-08-06
                                              • 22556

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by STAX
                                              then play a 2 teamer and save half the juice
                                              "Greed is good".......wall street
                                              Comment
                                              • STAX
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-01-13
                                                • 3718

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                "Greed is good".......wall street
                                                soooooo, you are being greedy by losing money long term? or are you calling me greedy? now im just confused
                                                Comment
                                                • Double Bogey
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 07-24-10
                                                  • 1465

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by seaborneq
                                                  95% of us lose money gambling long term. You win when you can or keep from losing it all as much as you can.
                                                  You are ensuring that you are in the 95% if you're hedging 3 teamers on a consistent basis
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Big Bear
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 11-01-11
                                                    • 43253

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Double Bogey
                                                    You are ensuring that you are in the 95% if you're hedging 3 teamers on a consistent basis
                                                    not really. A win is a win.

                                                    profit is profit.

                                                    it all depends on how much you "need" the money. If you need the money and you got a 4 team parlay for $100 and its down to the last leg aint nothin wrong with hedging and knowin that your going to collect some money regardless of the outcome of the next game.

                                                    basically it all boils down to picking winners. IF you can pick winners then everything else will fall into place.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dollars2Donuts
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-07-13
                                                      • 8803

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                      not really. A win is a win.

                                                      profit is profit.

                                                      it all depends on how much you "need" the money. If you need the money and you got a 4 team parlay for $100 and its down to the last leg aint nothin wrong with hedging and knowin that your going to collect some money regardless of the outcome of the next game.

                                                      basically it all boils down to picking winners. IF you can pick winners then everything else will fall into place.
                                                      Wrong Bear, your statement could not be further from the truth here.

                                                      Before you make the three team parlay, look at the times in which the games go off. Example, say two teams play that night at 7pm and one team plays at 10pm.....then imagine that the first two teams win (remember you ARE PREDICTING them to win....).

                                                      Now ask yourself, if this happens, will you want to hedge? If the answer is YES, then make a two team parlay instead. The above posters are correct, hedging out COMPLETELY kills any edge you may have in your abilities. Remember, the best guys in the world don't hit 60%.....they have a tiny margin in the long run, just enough to beat the books year round.

                                                      I hope this helps.....hedging in sports betting is just like buying insurance when playing Blackjack and the house is showing an ace. It is a house play and you always lose in the long term.....always.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Double Bogey
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 07-24-10
                                                        • 1465

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                        not really. A win is a win.

                                                        profit is profit.

                                                        it all depends on how much you "need" the money. If you need the money and you got a 4 team parlay for $100 and its down to the last leg aint nothin wrong with hedging and knowin that your going to collect some money regardless of the outcome of the next game.

                                                        basically it all boils down to picking winners. IF you can pick winners then everything else will fall into place.
                                                        I won't even try with you, you're beyond help. You're the guy buying points and playing -150 juice on spreads. Guys would lose a lot less money if they hadn't fallen asleep during math class.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • crustyme
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 09-29-10
                                                          • 16896

                                                          #29
                                                          how much u win?

                                                          post the betting slip.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Big Bear
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 11-01-11
                                                            • 43253

                                                            #30
                                                            well my train of thought is i worked too hard handicapping these games to not come away with a profit bc of one game.

                                                            i had 2 different parlays with the last leg being saints...

                                                            i had hoped saints would come out and just blow the doors off the packers and make it a blow out from the start so i resisted hedging but when the Packers and Saints were tied at 13-13 i felt the need to pull the trigger on the hedge bc at the time the saints defense looked awful.

                                                            anyway my talent is picking winners i have a knack for it.

                                                            The money management aspect is a work in progress.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • STAX
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 11-01-13
                                                              • 3718

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts
                                                              Wrong Bear, your statement could not be further from the truth here.

                                                              Before you make the three team parlay, look at the times in which the games go off. Example, say two teams play that night at 7pm and one team plays at 10pm.....then imagine that the first two teams win (remember you ARE PREDICTING them to win....).

                                                              Now ask yourself, if this happens, will you want to hedge? If the answer is YES, then make a two team parlay instead. The above posters are correct, hedging out COMPLETELY kills any edge you may have in your abilities. Remember, the best guys in the world don't hit 60%.....they have a tiny margin in the long run, just enough to beat the books year round.

                                                              I hope this helps.....hedging in sports betting is just like buying insurance when playing Blackjack and the house is showing an ace. It is a house play and you always lose in the long term.....always.
                                                              this sums it up perfectly, great post.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Double Bogey
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 07-24-10
                                                                • 1465

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Big Bear
                                                                well my train of thought is i worked too hard handicapping these games to not come away with a profit bc of one game.

                                                                i had 2 different parlays with the last leg being saints...

                                                                i had hoped saints would come out and just blow the doors off the packers and make it a blow out from the start so i resisted hedging but when the Packers and Saints were tied at 13-13 i felt the need to pull the trigger on the hedge bc at the time the saints defense looked awful.

                                                                anyway my talent is picking winners i have a knack for it.

                                                                The money management aspect is a work in progress.
                                                                wtf are you doing parlays for anyway? I can't imagine you are running into limits. If you pick winners, bet them all separately doubling or tripling your bets when you want. Parlays are only for guys to get by limit restrictions or don't have the cash to put down on each bet. If those don't apply, you should not be parlaying anything. Especially if you're hedging. Do some math and see how much you are losing doing that.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Ra77er
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 06-20-11
                                                                  • 10969

                                                                  #33
                                                                  My favorite all time hedge post was when the luckbox hit an open 25 team parlay for 250k and then the fever spread on sbr. Some clown starts his own 25 team open parlay and asked for hedging advice on the third pick I wish I could find that.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Smoke
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-09-09
                                                                    • 48111

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Did he win?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Ra77er
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 06-20-11
                                                                      • 10969

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I have no idea
                                                                      Comment
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