2014 American League Championship Series
KANSAS CITY ROYALS v. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Series Odds
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -135
KANSAS CITY ROYALS +115
Game 1 odds
Baltimore (Tillman) -133
Kansas City (Shields) +123
SCHEDULE
2014 PITCHING COMPARISONS
2015 HITTING COMPARISONS
UMPIRES
I see Cowboy Joe West is the crew chief.
That's going to make this very interesting series even more entertaining.
Brian Gorman, Marvin Hudson, Dan Iassogna, Ron Kulpa, Tim Timmons and Mark Wegner comprise West's crew. Iassogna will be the replay official for the first two games, and he will swap spots with Timmons starting with Game 3.
Umpire Todd Tichenor will assist the designated replay officials in New York.
When the series line was first announced I posted it in a thread, one of the posters responded, that's a great line if you are on Baltimore. I agreed, I thought the series price was going to open around 160, did not, it opened at 140, making Baltimore affordable to the little guy if he wanted to bet the Orioles. Personally I'm leaning Kansas City, but at +120 I think I am getting short changed, and as of today, Friday morning the series line dropped 5 cents to +115/-135.
I'm hearing some "Balty large talk", personally speaking this series can go either way, I'm going to make cases for both sides as to how they can win this. Just like the Oakland/KC Royal play in wild card game, this series in my opinion is not an "all in" play or a 5* bomb play, both teams have weapons that can win this.
I visited all the usual projection and simulation sites out here in cyberland, and for the most part it's O's in six games, Royals in seven games, a few six games for Royals, not to many of those, but the consensus is Orioles have a slight advantage. I lean on ZIP'S in February when I gather my information for the upcoming season preparing for the fantasy draft, and ZIP's has Baltimore with a 54 or so percent chance of winning this series. But that is with Guthrie starting for the Royals in game three, and Yost is not committing game 3 to Guthrie (yet). Without Guthrie (Duffy) in game 3, that projection becomes a pick 'em for the series.
Let's break this down.
Two totally different teams and styles. Orioles have a huge edge when it comes to power hitting, Royals have huge edge when it comes to creating runs with speed. Baltimore's best chance to win this is to keep the road runners off the bases, that is Kansas City does, they run. They just don't have speed, they have disruptive speed, we have seen this all now.
Found and interesting tidbit regarding Orioles game 1 starter, Chris Tillman delivers the ball to the plate the quickest out of any other American League starter, making it just that more difficult to steal off of him. He pitches the ball, receives the ball from that catcher, and just pitches it right back again. That'll help the O's in game one as a) Tillman because of his delivery is difficult to steal off of, b) O's catcher Caleb Joseph has a rifle for an arm. Because Tillman is a quick pitch artist, would be base stealer are only 2 for 13 off of him and that is a mind numbing statistic. However, the Oriole bullpen does yield a lot of stolen bases, starters are stingy in that department.
That's the key in game 1 for Baltimore in game 1. Tillman to keep the speed guys off the bases, Royals philosophy is put the ball in play, force the defense to hurry an error, get on that way, and reek havoc on the base paths. What is the catch phrase coined by Lorenzo Cain "that what speed do".
One more thing to consider, Hosmer looks like he's found his long ball stroke, if KC gets hot with the long ball (remember he did hit 19 homers his rookie year and 17 last year, Gordon has hit 20 or more HR's twice, and 19 this year, Butler has hit 29 in 2012, so it's not like KC does not have power hitters) but keep them off the bases is the way to beat them.
Conversly, KC hast to keep Baltimore in the park. Nelson Cruz has been a terror lately.
Adam Jones too. The two big factors in the series is Cruz and Jones, of course there's Markakis, and Hardy and the rest, but the middle of the order is key. Cruz, you just have to contain him, Adam Jones is a little easier. Thing with AJ is he never met a pitch he did not like. Start Jones off outside off the plate, make him show you he's going to be patient (which he is not) keep feeding him crap away if Jones keeps fishing, that's the way I'd work to him.
Check out Cruz versus Vargas lifetime.
I can go on all afternoon, making a case for either side.
Managers.
Big edge to Baltimore and Showalter, personally I think he's over the top anal, but you have to give him
the respect he deserves, he's a numbers junkie, beyond prepared, has the next move and the move after that planned out ahead of time, one step ahead of the opposing manager, or in this case, fourteen step ahead of Ned Yost from the Royals, whose moves sometimes leaves me speechless.
Big Edge: Baltimore.
Speed
Power (see chart - enough said)
Compare & Contrast
Starting pitching
Slight edge to Shields, Ventura over Tillman and Norris
Relief Pitching
Baltimore's relievers get overlooked, very underrated, very dependable, but Herrera to Wade Davis to Holland was the best in the AL this year.
Edge (not a very big edge) Kansas City
Defense
Baltimore has a better defensive infield with Machado at third and Davis at first, but Pearce isn't bad with the glove, and Schoop has a cannon of an arm. Orioles have a good defense in the infield, KC is better.
Joseph is a very good catcher, Perez has a better arm and plays better defense, but don't sell Joseph short.
In the outfield, it's no contest, KC has one of the best outfield units I've seen in the past 20 years.
And that's not selling Markakis short, he plays terrific right field, Jones can get it too, but still no contest.
Baltimore has a solid defense, but KC has a better all around defense.
Edge: KC
Home Field
Baltimore 4-3
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
Royals won 4-3
This is the way Zips sees it
Series recap: On paper, the Royals and Orioles share a lot of similarities. Both teams have solid starting pitching and top bullpens, an aggressive approach at the plate and have been absent from the World Series since the '80s. The Orioles' advantage in the projections comes down to their power advantage, the extra home game and slightly more dependable Nos. 3 and 4 starters. In the end, what it will come down to is whether Kansas City pitchers can control the Orioles' powerful lineup. In a tight series, ZiPS has steamed crabs over barbecue in seven.
This is the way I see it
Very close series, could be one for the ages, and could be one of the most entertaining series ever.
4-3 Royals.
If you like Baltimore, the price is not astronmicalat 4 to 3, I am wondering why Baltimore seems to be most bettors choice opening at -140 and getting knocked down to -135 myself, but Vegas and offshore is making Baltimore affordable to the small timer, and even though I feel like I am getting short changed at +115, I'm going to take KC at plus 115 very small for the series.
I am laying off the side, but I really like the under 7 here in game 1, I think Tillman keeps KC batters off balanced, and on the other side, I think James Shields pitches like he did last week and keeps Baltimore in the park.
Series KC +115 for 1.5*
Game 1 total under 7 for 3*
KANSAS CITY ROYALS v. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Series Odds
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -135
KANSAS CITY ROYALS +115
Game 1 odds
Baltimore (Tillman) -133
Kansas City (Shields) +123
SCHEDULE
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2014 PITCHING COMPARISONS
2015 HITTING COMPARISONS
UMPIRES
I see Cowboy Joe West is the crew chief.
That's going to make this very interesting series even more entertaining.
Brian Gorman, Marvin Hudson, Dan Iassogna, Ron Kulpa, Tim Timmons and Mark Wegner comprise West's crew. Iassogna will be the replay official for the first two games, and he will swap spots with Timmons starting with Game 3.
Umpire Todd Tichenor will assist the designated replay officials in New York.
When the series line was first announced I posted it in a thread, one of the posters responded, that's a great line if you are on Baltimore. I agreed, I thought the series price was going to open around 160, did not, it opened at 140, making Baltimore affordable to the little guy if he wanted to bet the Orioles. Personally I'm leaning Kansas City, but at +120 I think I am getting short changed, and as of today, Friday morning the series line dropped 5 cents to +115/-135.
I'm hearing some "Balty large talk", personally speaking this series can go either way, I'm going to make cases for both sides as to how they can win this. Just like the Oakland/KC Royal play in wild card game, this series in my opinion is not an "all in" play or a 5* bomb play, both teams have weapons that can win this.
I visited all the usual projection and simulation sites out here in cyberland, and for the most part it's O's in six games, Royals in seven games, a few six games for Royals, not to many of those, but the consensus is Orioles have a slight advantage. I lean on ZIP'S in February when I gather my information for the upcoming season preparing for the fantasy draft, and ZIP's has Baltimore with a 54 or so percent chance of winning this series. But that is with Guthrie starting for the Royals in game three, and Yost is not committing game 3 to Guthrie (yet). Without Guthrie (Duffy) in game 3, that projection becomes a pick 'em for the series.
Let's break this down.
Two totally different teams and styles. Orioles have a huge edge when it comes to power hitting, Royals have huge edge when it comes to creating runs with speed. Baltimore's best chance to win this is to keep the road runners off the bases, that is Kansas City does, they run. They just don't have speed, they have disruptive speed, we have seen this all now.
Found and interesting tidbit regarding Orioles game 1 starter, Chris Tillman delivers the ball to the plate the quickest out of any other American League starter, making it just that more difficult to steal off of him. He pitches the ball, receives the ball from that catcher, and just pitches it right back again. That'll help the O's in game one as a) Tillman because of his delivery is difficult to steal off of, b) O's catcher Caleb Joseph has a rifle for an arm. Because Tillman is a quick pitch artist, would be base stealer are only 2 for 13 off of him and that is a mind numbing statistic. However, the Oriole bullpen does yield a lot of stolen bases, starters are stingy in that department.
That's the key in game 1 for Baltimore in game 1. Tillman to keep the speed guys off the bases, Royals philosophy is put the ball in play, force the defense to hurry an error, get on that way, and reek havoc on the base paths. What is the catch phrase coined by Lorenzo Cain "that what speed do".
One more thing to consider, Hosmer looks like he's found his long ball stroke, if KC gets hot with the long ball (remember he did hit 19 homers his rookie year and 17 last year, Gordon has hit 20 or more HR's twice, and 19 this year, Butler has hit 29 in 2012, so it's not like KC does not have power hitters) but keep them off the bases is the way to beat them.
Conversly, KC hast to keep Baltimore in the park. Nelson Cruz has been a terror lately.
Adam Jones too. The two big factors in the series is Cruz and Jones, of course there's Markakis, and Hardy and the rest, but the middle of the order is key. Cruz, you just have to contain him, Adam Jones is a little easier. Thing with AJ is he never met a pitch he did not like. Start Jones off outside off the plate, make him show you he's going to be patient (which he is not) keep feeding him crap away if Jones keeps fishing, that's the way I'd work to him.
Check out Cruz versus Vargas lifetime.
| CAREER STATISTICS VS. KANSAS CITY ROYALS PITCHERS | ||||||||||||
| PITCHER | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| Wade Davis | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.143 | 0.143 | 0.571 | 0.714 |
| Danny Duffy | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 24 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.292 | 0.602 |
| Kelvin Herrera | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Holland | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.333 |
| James Shields | 21 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 0.19 | 0.227 | 0.333 | 0.561 |
| Jason Vargas | 30 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 0.333 | 0.462 | 0.8 | 1.262 |
| Yordano Ventura | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.167 | 0.286 | 0.667 | 0.952 |
| Totals | 139 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 29 | 13 | 42 | 0.209 | 0.298 | 0.417 | 0.715 |
I can go on all afternoon, making a case for either side.
Managers.
Big edge to Baltimore and Showalter, personally I think he's over the top anal, but you have to give him
the respect he deserves, he's a numbers junkie, beyond prepared, has the next move and the move after that planned out ahead of time, one step ahead of the opposing manager, or in this case, fourteen step ahead of Ned Yost from the Royals, whose moves sometimes leaves me speechless.
Big Edge: Baltimore.
Speed
Power (see chart - enough said)
Compare & Contrast
| HR | 95 | 211 |
| HR Rank | Last | 1st |
| SB | 153 | 44 |
| SB Rank | 1st | Last |
Starting pitching
Slight edge to Shields, Ventura over Tillman and Norris
Relief Pitching
Baltimore's relievers get overlooked, very underrated, very dependable, but Herrera to Wade Davis to Holland was the best in the AL this year.
Edge (not a very big edge) Kansas City
Defense
Baltimore has a better defensive infield with Machado at third and Davis at first, but Pearce isn't bad with the glove, and Schoop has a cannon of an arm. Orioles have a good defense in the infield, KC is better.
Joseph is a very good catcher, Perez has a better arm and plays better defense, but don't sell Joseph short.
In the outfield, it's no contest, KC has one of the best outfield units I've seen in the past 20 years.
And that's not selling Markakis short, he plays terrific right field, Jones can get it too, but still no contest.
Baltimore has a solid defense, but KC has a better all around defense.
Edge: KC
Home Field
Baltimore 4-3
REGULAR SEASON SERIES
Royals won 4-3
| Apr 25, 2014 | Royals 5, Orioles 0 | |
| Apr 26, 2014 | Royals 2, Orioles 3 | |
| Apr 27, 2014 | Royals 9, Orioles 3 | |
| May 15, 2014 | Orioles 2, Royals 1 | |
| May 16, 2014 | Orioles 4, Royals 0 | |
| May 17, 2014 | Orioles 0, Royals 1 | |
| May 18, 2014 | Orioles 6, Royals 8 |
This is the way Zips sees it
Series recap: On paper, the Royals and Orioles share a lot of similarities. Both teams have solid starting pitching and top bullpens, an aggressive approach at the plate and have been absent from the World Series since the '80s. The Orioles' advantage in the projections comes down to their power advantage, the extra home game and slightly more dependable Nos. 3 and 4 starters. In the end, what it will come down to is whether Kansas City pitchers can control the Orioles' powerful lineup. In a tight series, ZiPS has steamed crabs over barbecue in seven.
This is the way I see it
Very close series, could be one for the ages, and could be one of the most entertaining series ever.
4-3 Royals.
If you like Baltimore, the price is not astronmicalat 4 to 3, I am wondering why Baltimore seems to be most bettors choice opening at -140 and getting knocked down to -135 myself, but Vegas and offshore is making Baltimore affordable to the small timer, and even though I feel like I am getting short changed at +115, I'm going to take KC at plus 115 very small for the series.
I am laying off the side, but I really like the under 7 here in game 1, I think Tillman keeps KC batters off balanced, and on the other side, I think James Shields pitches like he did last week and keeps Baltimore in the park.
Series KC +115 for 1.5*
Game 1 total under 7 for 3*
