BAD LINE ALERT: TCU +10 at Baylor

[frogsrangers]

This is just a gift, TCU and 10 points against a team they matchup really well against and have played really well against the past few years.

TCU is to Baylor as Stanford is to Oregon. Patterson has shut down this offense cold 3 out of the past 4 years. Only reason Baylor scored 41 last year on TCU was because of 2 pick sixes and a fumble recovery at the 1 yard line when TCU had one of the worst offenses in the country. Patterson has held Baylor to its lowest yardage output in 3 of the past 4 years as well. No reason to believe that can't continue.

For TCU the deep ball was a problem in the 1st half against Oklahoma but adjustments were made and Knight did nothing in the 2nd half. And Petty isn't the run threat Knight was. Baylor doesn't have the run game Oklahoma does therefore TCU can sit back on the deep pass.

I really like TCU in this spot. Not only am I on the +10 I am also pounding the MONEY LINE when it comes out. Patterson really wants this game and word is he has prepared for Baylor since spring, after what happened last year.

Not saying TCU will win but their defense is a matchup problem for Baylor like Stanford is to Oregon. Only time Baylor has figured it out vs. TCU was the first game of the year in 2011 with RG3 and TCU was breaking in 9 new defensive starters after the Rose Bowl team was gutted by graduation.

Also this is by far the best offense Baylor will have played so far. SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo, get real. Iowa State and Texas are two of the worst Big 12 offenses.

EDIT: BobRoss

[jjgold]

Great write up frogs although Baylor can really run it up if they are on

The line does seem high though

[thetrinity]

i dont understand this line either, looks like it should be around 6, baylor has played nobody so far

[crustyme]

werent u on mich st, texas and syracuse, all losers?

[texhooper]

so, how about the hangover from yesterday? you don't see that as a problem? love your writeup, just playing situational devils advocate

[thetrinity]

so, how about the hangover from yesterday? you don't see that as a problem? love your writeup, just playing situational devils advocate

not against an instate rival who is also in the top 10

[Urbanwildlife]

Baylor is whole different animal playing at home, remember that.

[tony_come]

Too early

[texhooper]

not against an instate rival who is also in the top 10

i meant the tcu hangover from beating oklahoma. although now that i read what your post again i'm not sure what either of us are talking about anymore.

[Sdotbold]

I really like tcu in this game also

[RavensFan2k3]

i dont understand this line either, looks like it should be around 6, baylor has played nobody so far

People said the same thing about TCU, that they played nobody, and they beat OU

[thetrinity]

i meant the tcu hangover from beating oklahoma. although now that i read what your post again i'm not sure what either of us are talking about anymore.

ya i understand what you meant, they wont be flat playing baylor, they would playing kansas or iowa st for sure though, easy game for those kids to get up for

[homie1975]

teams coming off of huge upset wins tend to play much worse the next gm after the players have been patted on the back all week long and getting laid every night, they don't have the energy.

this is a well known and proven theory. that said, i take TCU plus the pts or i stay off the game

[homie1975]

hey Frogs, Is it in the script??

[GoBlue77]

problem #1 - books are always one step ahead.
problem #2 - pretty sure baylor will give TCU their full attention having seen them just beat Oklahoma. baylor will bring they A game at home.

[dirtycash66]

I would really hate to bet against a team that i believe is currently 5-0 ATS

[thetrinity]

People said the same thing about TCU, that they played nobody, and they beat OU

true, although tcu did at least play minnesota, who has a pulse at least. these teams baylor has played are putrid. baylor always seems to get way too much respect on the line, they play buffalo theyll win by 50, they play someone good, they struggle.

[thetrinity]

I would really hate to bet against a team that i believe is currently 5-0 ATS

iowa st covered or pushed depending on your line

[FilletMaster]

TCU will get throttled @ Waco.. You speak of how many points they gifted Baylor last year, wait til this game..

[STAX]

TCU ML is where the value is in this game. Baylor is 6-10 vrs ranked teams since 2010 (they sucked before 2010), and only 5 of those 16 games the final score was within a TD (Baylor is 3-2 in these games), that means 8/16 times vrs a ranked opponent, the opponent has won by over 8 pts. If you can find an alternate line of TCU -6.5 at big odds, I'd jump on that very quickly as well

[frogsrangers]

teams coming off of huge upset wins tend to play much worse the next gm after the players have been patted on the back all week long and getting laid every night, they don't have the energy.

this is a well known and proven theory. that said, i take TCU plus the pts or i stay off the game

Against a team like Kansas or Iowa State you are right but this is a revenge game. TCU was the better team last year vs. Baylor and Baylor ended up winning on the games final play. Baylor also delivered a cheap shot on TCU QB Trevone Boykin in the game that got the Baylor player ejected and caused a lot of post game verbal fireworks between Patterson and Briles.

The Frogs want this game more than any on the schedule which is why there will be no hangover... TCU has had this one circled on the calender since last year's Baylor houdini act 3 point escape win.

[STAX]

Against a team like Kansas or Iowa State you are right but this is a revenge game. TCU was the better team last year vs. Baylor and Baylor ended up winning on the games final play. Baylor also delivered a cheap shot on TCU QB Trevone Boykin in the game that got the Baylor player ejected and caused a lot of post game verbal fireworks between Patterson and Briles.

The Frogs want this game more than any on the schedule which is why there will be no hangover... TCU has had this one circled on the calender since last year's Baylor houdini act 3 point escape win.

agree with this a lot... plus Patterson is a tremendous coach... the post-upset hangover has more to do with coaching than anything else. I think a very safe bet is to take Baylor -9.5 (buy the hook) and TCU ML. Break even if Baylor covers, win a nice chunk of TCU wins. I really think this game will be a double digit win... it is just who wins is the question. I really really love, I mean LOVE it if you can find an alternate line of TCU -6.5... probably get +1200 or better on it, and that is a steal!!!!

[LT Profits]

teams coming off of huge upset wins tend to play much worse the next gm after the players have been patted on the back all week long and getting laid every night, they don't have the energy.

this is a well known and proven theory. that said, i take TCU plus the pts or i stay off the game

But it wasn't a "huge" upset, Oklahoma was only -3.5.

[BettingWizard]

Impossible to get up for 2 straight games against top 10 teams, especially when the 2nd one is on the road. This is a game you pass on, you'll be sweating either way

[Vegas39]

But it wasn't a "huge" upset, Oklahoma was only -3.5.

#25 beating #4 still a big upset

[LT Profits]

Impossible to get up for 2 straight games against top 10 teams, especially when the 2nd one is on the road. This is a game you pass on, you'll be sweating either way

Unless you are a GOOD team. If TCU is a legitimate Big 12 title contender, they show up. If they are pretenders, then they have a letdown.

[LT Profits]

Unless you are a GOOD team. If TCU is a legitimate Big 12 title contender, they show up. If they are pretenders, then they have a letdown.

I should add I obviously like them and think they are good.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/2936637-who-sbrs-pick-win-big-12-a.html

[swag1982]

But it wasn't a "huge" upset, Oklahoma was only -3.5.

OU was - 6.5 at one point

[navyblue81]

Two major concerns with taking TCU:

1) Baylor is much stronger at home than on the road
2) TCU is coming off a huge win. Tough to get up for a game two weeks in a row like this, especially when the 2nd one is on the road. One of the reasons I'm going against Ole MIss this week.

[swag1982]

It's way to early to tell but there's a possibility that tcu could be this years auburn don't get me wrong I'm not saying they r going to the national championship or anything but I could see them covering spreads and a lot of them in the same way auburn did thay had a bad season last year just like au had in 12 and I don't see a let down comming I think Patterson has these kids believing
gl all

[gwills]

If Frogs posts it - 9 times out of 10 I believe it.

Solid dude.

[texhooper]

i see 8.5 now. this is looking like a promising "bad line alert".

[STAX]

It's way to early to tell but there's a possibility that tcu could be this years auburn don't get me wrong I'm not saying they r going to the national championship or anything but I could see them covering spreads and a lot of them in the same way auburn did thay had a bad season last year just like au had in 12 and I don't see a let down comming I think Patterson has these kids believing
gl all

good post

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Frogs, I want to ask u one question:

1) Do u rate this TCU defense as a classic one? Need to be great to win this game.

Frog schedule front-loaded. IF they beat Baylor, it's downhill rest of way.

[LT Profits]

Frogs, I want to ask u one question:

1) Do u rate this TCU defense as a classic one? Need to be great to win this game.

Frog schedule front-loaded. IF they beat Baylor, it's downhill rest of way.

Well, UPHILL for the Frogs. Toughest opponent after Baylor might be Kansas State, and they get Wildcats at home,