Pats open Pk at home vs. Bengals -- Quickly jumps to Cincy -2

[Just Blaze]

Whoever said the line moved back to PK is looking at 5D, meanwhile they are several ppl in here who cannot even understand how to look at a line history when SBR has it, never mind Don Best. Consider the difference of clientelle of 5D and Pinny, and that 5D moved back to a PK and Pinny is still on -2. If Pinny somehow moves to the key number of 3 they are probably looking at a lot of money and a liability on the bengals, will have to see in a couple days once liquidity builds. Until it hits 3 it's really not a huge significance, 1 and 2 margin of victory don't come into play a lot.

Cincy has looked great this year in a weak division but has a solid d. Home dogs always bark in the NFL but anything less than a FG I would lay the road points with the Bengals at this point, NE has too many holes this year and the O Line is awful. Better get brady taking 3 step drop reps all week in practice.

[a4u2fear]

NE wins, if you bet Cin, you've got some learning about NFL betting to do

Bet everyone here was also on pit and ATL this week

[strictlypaypal]

i'd take pats + points because I simply don't think Dalton has it... pats off a loss + at home + points isn't bad. pats started last season extremely slow if yall don't remember idk if they snap out of it here but good chance of it happening. no play for me but pats only scenario

[Just Blaze]

Well I guess I'll have to learn from you....haven't seen any threads about how amazing it would be to lay 7 on the road with the steelers though, let's just assume they're out there.

What I've learned from NFL betting is it's generally not worth my money because the lines are razor sharp and it's a far harder major to beat than some others where you can grab +EV every day. Saying Pats win unequivocally and if you bet Cincy is just ignorant.

[WWCD]

i'd take pats + points because I simply don't think Dalton has it... pats off a loss + at home + points isn't bad. pats started last season extremely slow if yall don't remember idk if they snap out of it here but good chance of it happening. no play for me but pats only scenario

I love it that you like the Pats. Every time you have disagreed with my pick, I hit.

[KRIT]

People are over-reacting to everything. Pats offense does stink, but stinky offenses can turn it on.

Pats defense will be able to keep Bengals in check. We are talking about Andy Dalton on the road in the spotlight. I'm confident in the defense showing up. I think the offense can make some adjustments and play better. How the Oline holds up, I'm not sure, but they can make adjustments (screens, nudge/chip).

What are chances Pats make a trade for a WR? In season NFL trades are rare, but they are one good WR away from making this offense a lot better. Don't Pats have a ton of draft picks from trading down each year?

[WWCD]

People are over-reacting to everything. Pats offense does stink, but stinky offenses can turn it on.

Pats defense will be able to keep Bengals in check. We are talking about Andy Dalton on the road in the spotlight. I'm confident in the defense showing up. I think the offense can make some adjustments and play better. How the Oline holds up, I'm not sure, but they can make adjustments (screens, nudge/chip).

What are chances Pats make a trade for a WR? In season NFL trades are rare, but they are one good WR away from making this offense a lot better. Don't Pats have a ton of draft picks from trading down each year?

"Stinky offenses can turn it on" - That's what people are going to bank on? Again, going by reputation and history instead of what is happening THIS season.

"Pats defense will be able to keep Bengals in check." - Why? Just because? Where was the defense last night?

"We are talking about Andy Dalton on the road in the spotlight." - The same Dalton who threw for 300+ yards @ Baltimore THIS season.

"How the Oline holds up" Exactly. How? Wave a magic wand and the talent will just appear?

"What are chances Pats make a trade for a WR?" - Now you are really reaching IMO.


That is a TON of questions and issues to correct in one week.

A solid, winning team, coming of a BYE over a struggling "Historically Great" all day long.

[jjgold]

Every square in the world will be on Cincinnati

That's what squares do they look at records and handicap off that

[Just Blaze]

Agreed game is close and ppl will react to last night's game but NE is not a top tier team this year that much is for sure...Oakland played them close and NE played turnover free, it took a holding penalty on the 6 to nullify a TD with 4 mins to go for Pats to lock down a win against the Raiders @ home in a game they opened around -15 and Oakland is a total joke. Brady has not been as sharp as usual either and it hasn't totally been his WR. He threw a couple WR hitch/screens last night that were off target and the guards and tackles that had to pull probably won't enjoy film today. They almost have to trade for a WR that has some down field threat to at least open up the underneath routes.

I can never argue against taking points @ home though, to me this is a no play and will give you a pretty solid idea where both these teams stand rest of the year.

[WWCD]

Every square in the world will be on Cincinnati

That's what squares do they look at records and handicap off that

I'll be a square, a circle, a hexagon.. as long as I am cashing tickets.

[Just Blaze]

JJ, will the fact that NE has been overvalued in quite a few games for the past couple seasons due to the public love affair balance out with all these squares attacking Cincy or will they just be overwhelmed by the one beatdown they saw on national televsion and its gonna be a 70% Cincy close? Or will the squares brains just overheat and it's burnt toast city?

[TEViN-BRADFORD]

Ok listen boys
last week we were like atl over minn Pitt over tb
Shit like that
This week it'a ne that's Tampa bay right ?
no bitch ne actually fkn sucks and are still overvalued
tb and minn were UNDERvalued
cincy ready to show we rly out here if ne gets down 10 they'll quit if cincy gets down 10 they'll keep ffighting cincy off a bye ne on a short week and they NEED The extra reps
oooo gawd boi ne is a terrible bet

cincy pk 4u

[TEViN-BRADFORD]

And it's in prime time bengals fina be on the map mofucks!

[pavyracer]

Bengals have 2 good running backs like Chiefs, the defense is more aggressive than Chiefs and they also have a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones coming back.

Patriots will have their hands full for sure facing the team that is going to the Superbowl this year.

[KRIT]

"Stinky offenses can turn it on" - That's what people are going to bank on? Again, going by reputation and history instead of what is happening THIS season.

"Pats defense will be able to keep Bengals in check." - Why? Just because? Where was the defense last night?

"We are talking about Andy Dalton on the road in the spotlight." - The same Dalton who threw for 300+ yards @ Baltimore THIS season.

"How the Oline holds up" Exactly. How? Wave a magic wand and the talent will just appear?

"What are chances Pats make a trade for a WR?" - Now you are really reaching IMO.


That is a TON of questions and issues to correct in one week.

A solid, winning team, coming of a BYE over a struggling "Historically Great" all day long.

Let me guess, you are the kind of guy who makes bets based on the previous week performances? How do you explain Tampa Bay beating Pitt on the road? Tampa just got smoked by ATL, and Pitt has looked unstoppable? How on earth did they win? How did the Vikes beat ATL?

Things change week to week in the NFL. If you think Bengals crush them, go ahead, yo can get them at a pk right now. You don't think it is a little weird that the 3-0 Bengals, coming off a bye are only a pk against the horrible pats?

[jtoler]

Would be funny to see Brady close as dogs at home, heck lets see it close at +3 bet that hasnt happened in a long time.

[KRIT]

Would be funny to see Brady close as dogs at home, heck lets see it close at +3 bet that hasnt happened in a long time.

If it reaches +3, then Bengals probably cover. I'm pretty sure it won't touch the 3 though.

[stevek173]

What I will do is draw up the opinion of every poster in this thread and whatever the majority thinks I will bet against it

best way to win around here

[jjgold]

Paver Kansas City was home and everyone knows it's one of the toughest places to play in the league and now louder than Seattle

The Pats are home this week which makes a big difference

Bengals have 2 good running backs like Chiefs, the defense is more aggressive than Chiefs and they also have a healthy AJ Green and Marvin Jones coming back.

Patriots will have their hands full for sure facing the team that is going to the Superbowl this year.

[WWCD]

Let me guess, you are the kind of guy who makes bets based on the previous week performances? How do you explain Tampa Bay beating Pitt on the road? Tampa just got smoked by ATL, and Pitt has looked unstoppable? How on earth did they win? How did the Vikes beat ATL?

Things change week to week in the NFL. If you think Bengals crush them, go ahead, yo can get them at a pk right now. You don't think it is a little weird that the 3-0 Bengals, coming off a bye are only a pk against the horrible pats?

"How do you explain Tampa Bay beating Pitt on the road?"

Dogs on 2nd straight road game after a road loss is 60% ATS.

Pats lines are always ****** because there are people who will bet on Pats no matter what! You don't think books know this?

Heck, last night when I went to cash I asked the manager where everyone was since the Sports Book was completely empty..

He told me everyone had bet on the Pats and left!

[stevek173]

yeah paver

[Just Blaze]

Let me guess, you are the kind of guy who makes bets based on the previous week performances? How do you explain Tampa Bay beating Pitt on the road? Tampa just got smoked by ATL, and Pitt has looked unstoppable? How on earth did they win? How did the Vikes beat ATL?

Things change week to week in the NFL. If you think Bengals crush them, go ahead, yo can get them at a pk right now. You don't think it is a little weird that the 3-0 Bengals, coming off a bye are only a pk against the horrible pats?

The PK line says cincy -4 neutral site taking away home field and NE affinity for taking brainless public bets which that line will entice all the more. Money has already moved this off a PK and i doubt thats public money.

And if pitt looked unstoppable to you vs cleveland not sure if u watched the second half

[rm18]

Dont forget Bengals off bye, Pats short week, and Marvin Jones coming back

[a4u2fear]

Well I guess I'll have to learn from you....haven't seen any threads about how amazing it would be to lay 7 on the road with the steelers though, let's just assume they're out there.

What I've learned from NFL betting is it's generally not worth my money because the lines are razor sharp and it's a far harder major to beat than some others where you can grab +EV every day. Saying Pats win unequivocally and if you bet Cincy is just ignorant.

True, and Cincy very well win this game, but betting them is not a side you want to be betting often in the NFL.

I'd start a "what I've learned" from betting the NFL, but then you just have to argue with everyone and open yourself up to criticism.

I've learned quite a bit that's gotten me 14-5-1 in BTP (after 0-4-1 week 1)
and I won the NFL gridiron 2000 contest with 19-8-1
and 72-44 in the all sports contest (with 8-15 week 1 and betting ML's)

[SmittyZ28]

Any idea why Thompkins and Dobson are healthy scratches? There's no way that having a receiver over 5'5" is gonna hurt the Patriots.

They have been scratches due to performance in practice, also Thompkins apparently has had some attitude problems. Brady has shown trust in Thompkins in the past, real surprised he keeps getting kept out especially because the Pats dressed 4, yes 4, RB/FBs and 3 TEs yesterday against the chiefs, awful gameplan

[strictlypaypal]

I love it that you like the Pats. Every time you have disagreed with my pick, I hit.

Aside from Tampa, what have we disagreed on? I had to look for that too foh

[WWCD]

There were a few. Here's one more:

colts + points is square as shit. Broncos cover here. Hold me accountable to this post

[leetreaper]

Dont forget Bengals off bye, Pats short week, and Marvin Jones coming back

Pats are 20-8 on short week last 3 seasons AND Lewis Marvin is 4-6 off bye with Cincy and Bengals are 11-12 off bye all-time, so what's your point?

[strictlypaypal]

There were a few. Here's one more:

you were on colts? im sorry I don't keep track of everyone who's against my picks like you seem to do. didn't know you were alive until your last post
fyi, check my track thread I had broncos at 7 points.. that's a tie foh x2

[byronbb]

Line makes no sense so that is worry some. If NE can't stop JC they won't stop Gio. Smith is no superstar so he's basically as good as Dalton and KC walked down the field like it was nothing. Conversely NE O-line is a shambles and Brady was just outright bad. Perhaps the greater fool narrative of Brady being a superman and not losing again will send dumb money to NE, but Brady is basically OLD, and this trumps any sort of X-factor he may have at one time had. Very confused by this line, I mean Cinn is coming off a bye and have a weeks rest and two weeks to prepare for this game.

[byronbb]

The PK line says cincy -4 neutral site taking away home field and NE affinity for taking brainless public bets which that line will entice all the more. Money has already moved this off a PK and i doubt thats public money.

And if pitt looked unstoppable to you vs cleveland not sure if u watched the second half

This is making sense. Books can't deal Pats +3 even if it was a fair line because sharps have taken PK and will buy back and public retards like most of the idiots ITT will autobet Pats even at PK.

[grease lightnin]

Everybody saying squares will bet cincy. Squares auto bet Brady and Pats. This is why I bet Chiefs ML....value is in seeing that the public perception of Pats tilts the line, bet accordingly. Get while the getting is good because it won't last forever.

[pavyracer]

Paver Kansas City was home and everyone knows it's one of the toughest places to play in the league and now louder than Seattle

The Pats are home this week which makes a big difference

The Broncos and Chiefs made the blueprint on how to beat the Patriots. Run, run, run. Vince Wilfork is old and fat and out of shape. Bernard and Hill are young and fast. Do the math.

[t-wizzle]

The Broncos and Chiefs made the blueprint on how to beat the Patriots. Run, run, run. Vince Wilfork is old and fat and out of shape. Bernard and Hill are young and fast. Do the math.

Yea. Wilfork just got fat overnight.

Apparently he's also the one not chasing down Bernard and Hill. All this time I thought it was the linebackers.


This guy is such a dope.

[stevek173]

yeah paver