2009 MLB Preview: Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies address mound, look to return to playoffs
According to manager Clint Hurdle, the Rockies have as deep a pitching staff as any team in the NL West. Can Colorado rebound and get back into the postseason picture?
Coming off their surprising NL Pennant in 2007, the Colorado Rockies kept a recent trend by National League champs by missing the playoffs entirely in their 2008 follow-up season. That makes it three straight titlists from the Senior Circuit that failed to reach the postseason the next year.
No, this isn’t a warning to the Phillies and their fans for what may be ahead for them in 2009. Nor is it meant to suggest the Rockies have their failures behind them and are back into position to enjoy another run into October baseball.
Colorado got their season started on the wrong foot dropping five of their first six, and a poor 9-19 month of May put them in a bigger hole. The Rockies then ended June on an 8-game losing skid to sit 32-51 roughly halfway into the ’08 season.
From that point on the Rox played winning ball, closing 42-37 from July on, though they had no September magic this time as they hoped to at least finish with a .500 record.
The entire NL West took a step back in 2008, and the perception is it’s the weakest division in the NL now with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks the favorites. If Colorado is going to surprise us again this season, they are going to have to do it without their strongest stick from the past few seasons, Matt Holliday, traded to the A’s in the offseason for pitchers Greg Smith and Huston Street and young outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez. Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan thinks Oakland got the better of the trade, and by a large margin. Colorado manager Clint Hurdle respectfully disagrees and is happy with the depth of arms his Rockies have entering this season.
“Nobody finishes up the season with the staff they started with,” Hurdle was quoted at the team’s MLB.com site. "Over the winter, we tried to accumulate as many arms as we thought could provide us depth and versatility over the course of 162 games.
“We've created as much depth as anybody in our division.”
The Rockies still have some nice bats without Holliday who they were going to either lose for draft picks at the end of this season or be forced to trade him away in July with little or no hope of reaching a deal with the Scott Boras client. We’ll have to wait and see how that pitching depth Hurdle spoke of translates into wins this season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
For those of you who live and die by the Pythagorean W-L stat, you’ll be happy to know that the Rockies were spot on in 2008 scoring 747 times and allowing 822 runs, figures that calculate to the 74-88 record Colorado ended with. The 747 trips across the dish ranked eighth in the NL, their 160 homers ranked ninth and their 141 steals sat atop the NL column and were just one theft behind Tampa Bay’s MLB leading total.
So if Hurdle is right and the Rockies have improved their pitching enough to lower the opposition’s scoring, just where is the extra offense going to come from with the subtraction of Holliday?
Hurdle & Co. hope some of the added offense comes from a healthier Todd Helton. Back woes limited Helton to just 83 games in 2008 and Helton suffered through his worst season with a .264 average, breaking a string of 10 consecutive .300+ years for a guy who is still a .328 career hitter. His back looks ok so far in spring games with three homers on his ledger.
Garrett Atkins is coming off a 99-RBI season and will be across the infield diamond from Helton at third once again. If Helton’s back doesn’t hold up, Atkins will slide across to first most likely with Ian Stewart or Jeff Baker taking over the hot corner.
Stewart and Baker figure into the team’s plans with Hurdle looking at ways to get both substantial playing time this season. Baker can play all three infield bags as well as right. Stewart has been playing mostly third this spring with Atkins nursing a minor groin strain, but can also play second and could see some time in left.
The middle of the infield should find Troy Tulowitzki at short and Clint Barmes at second. Injuries played a role in Tulo suffering through the dreaded sophomore jinx after his excellent rookie season in ’07. He is another source for some extra offense this year to take up some of the Holliday slack.
With the versatility that Baker and Stewart give them, the Rockies can afford to have just one more infield reserve on their bench to start the year, and that figures to be Omar Quintanilla. Quintanilla’s hot spring might also mean he’s the leading 2B candidate behind Barmes and in front of Baker or Stewart.
Behind the plate is Chris Iannetta who has missed most of camp activities with the Rox while he attends to catching chores for Team USA in the WBC. A .462 average in WBC play point to Iannetta being ready for the season with the former Tar Hell coming off an 18-HR campaign in 2008. Yorvit Torrealba will be the backup.
The outfield appears to be set with Seth Smith in left, Ryan Spilborghs in center and Brad Hawpe in right. Smith and Stewart will share left to open the season and their battle for the starting job may not be decided until May or June. Spilborghs excellent spring will lay to rest any notion of Carlos Gonzalez taking over in center for now, but a hot start at Triple-A for Gonzalez and a slow start or injury to Spilborghs could change that in a hurry.
Hawpe is another key to this offense after his numbers fell off a bit from 2007 to 2008. A bum pinkie finger has kept Hawpe from games this spring, and he will need to answer the bell and be a consistent force in this batting order if the Rockies are going to have a shot at contending this year.
Matt Murton and Scott Podsednik might be battling for the last OF slot, and Murton is leading that fight for now.
PITCHING
Even though scoring is down in recent years at Coors Field, the pitching stats for the Rockies did not show that in 2008. The club finished 15th in the NL with a 4.77 ERA, well ahead of the Pirates’ league-worst 5.10 though that is not saying much. The staff did finish fourth in the league by allowing just 148 homers, but they walked too many (562, 10th) for the strikeouts they recorded (1,041, 14th).
Adding Greg Smith to the rotation isn’t going to change those last two stats, but he’s only being counted on to be the left-hander at the end of the starting mix.
Leading the rotation on Opening Day will be Aaron Cook following his 16-9, 3.96 season. Control is Cook’s forte, walking just 48 in over 210 innings last year. Ubaldo Jimenez should get the call in the 2-hole of the rotation followed by Jason Marquis, acquired from the Cubs for reliever Luis Vizcaino.
Marquis might slide to No. 4 in the order just to break up the lefthanders at the back of the rotation if the club is indeed fully committed to having both Smith and Jorge De La Rosa in the mix together. De La Rosa has not had a very good spring, getting shelled in his first few outings, and Smith also hasn’t been that strong though he was limited recently because of the flu. That could open the door for another southpaw, Franklin Morales, to push his way into the mix. No matter, there will be two lefthanders in this rotation.
The acquisition of Street set up a spring battle for the closer role between him and Manny Corpas. If so, then Corpas has already won the job based on their spring stats. Street might even find himself moving lower on the relief ladder with both Ryan Speier and Glendon Rusch looking good this spring. Alan Embree and Matt Belisle should also be in the relief corps as well.
One arm that was set to be part of the setup plans and won’t be available until maybe May or later is Taylor Buchholz who has been sidelined most of camp with a sprained right elbow. In his place to start the year will be Juan Morillo or Randy Flores, with Josh Fogg maybe getting the long relief role.
SCHEDULE
Colorado’s schedule is loaded up with more games on the road than at home early on. And it’s not like the Rox will be facing weak teams on the road in April with two trips to Arizona, one to LA to meet the Dodgers and one to Chicago against the Cubs.
In the five simulations I ran in early February, Colorado average 76.0 wins, reaching .500 with 81 triumphs in one mockup and only reaching 70 wins in another. The Greek has their break set at 77½ with the Over priced at +120 and the Under -140.
Preseason projections from Baseball Prospectus put Colorado on 78 wins.
Betting odds at The Greek have the Rockies lumped into the NL West Field at +165 while 5Dimes list them at +800, behind the Giants (+450) and ahead of the Padres (+1300). The Greek posted the Rockies at +2550 to win their second NL flag and +5250 to win the Series with 5Dimes showing +2500 and +6000 for the same two outcomes.
According to manager Clint Hurdle, the Rockies have as deep a pitching staff as any team in the NL West. Can Colorado rebound and get back into the postseason picture?
Coming off their surprising NL Pennant in 2007, the Colorado Rockies kept a recent trend by National League champs by missing the playoffs entirely in their 2008 follow-up season. That makes it three straight titlists from the Senior Circuit that failed to reach the postseason the next year.
No, this isn’t a warning to the Phillies and their fans for what may be ahead for them in 2009. Nor is it meant to suggest the Rockies have their failures behind them and are back into position to enjoy another run into October baseball.
Colorado got their season started on the wrong foot dropping five of their first six, and a poor 9-19 month of May put them in a bigger hole. The Rockies then ended June on an 8-game losing skid to sit 32-51 roughly halfway into the ’08 season.
From that point on the Rox played winning ball, closing 42-37 from July on, though they had no September magic this time as they hoped to at least finish with a .500 record.
The entire NL West took a step back in 2008, and the perception is it’s the weakest division in the NL now with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks the favorites. If Colorado is going to surprise us again this season, they are going to have to do it without their strongest stick from the past few seasons, Matt Holliday, traded to the A’s in the offseason for pitchers Greg Smith and Huston Street and young outfield prospect Carlos Gonzalez. Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan thinks Oakland got the better of the trade, and by a large margin. Colorado manager Clint Hurdle respectfully disagrees and is happy with the depth of arms his Rockies have entering this season.
“Nobody finishes up the season with the staff they started with,” Hurdle was quoted at the team’s MLB.com site. "Over the winter, we tried to accumulate as many arms as we thought could provide us depth and versatility over the course of 162 games.
“We've created as much depth as anybody in our division.”
The Rockies still have some nice bats without Holliday who they were going to either lose for draft picks at the end of this season or be forced to trade him away in July with little or no hope of reaching a deal with the Scott Boras client. We’ll have to wait and see how that pitching depth Hurdle spoke of translates into wins this season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
For those of you who live and die by the Pythagorean W-L stat, you’ll be happy to know that the Rockies were spot on in 2008 scoring 747 times and allowing 822 runs, figures that calculate to the 74-88 record Colorado ended with. The 747 trips across the dish ranked eighth in the NL, their 160 homers ranked ninth and their 141 steals sat atop the NL column and were just one theft behind Tampa Bay’s MLB leading total.
So if Hurdle is right and the Rockies have improved their pitching enough to lower the opposition’s scoring, just where is the extra offense going to come from with the subtraction of Holliday?
Hurdle & Co. hope some of the added offense comes from a healthier Todd Helton. Back woes limited Helton to just 83 games in 2008 and Helton suffered through his worst season with a .264 average, breaking a string of 10 consecutive .300+ years for a guy who is still a .328 career hitter. His back looks ok so far in spring games with three homers on his ledger.
Garrett Atkins is coming off a 99-RBI season and will be across the infield diamond from Helton at third once again. If Helton’s back doesn’t hold up, Atkins will slide across to first most likely with Ian Stewart or Jeff Baker taking over the hot corner.
Stewart and Baker figure into the team’s plans with Hurdle looking at ways to get both substantial playing time this season. Baker can play all three infield bags as well as right. Stewart has been playing mostly third this spring with Atkins nursing a minor groin strain, but can also play second and could see some time in left.
The middle of the infield should find Troy Tulowitzki at short and Clint Barmes at second. Injuries played a role in Tulo suffering through the dreaded sophomore jinx after his excellent rookie season in ’07. He is another source for some extra offense this year to take up some of the Holliday slack.
With the versatility that Baker and Stewart give them, the Rockies can afford to have just one more infield reserve on their bench to start the year, and that figures to be Omar Quintanilla. Quintanilla’s hot spring might also mean he’s the leading 2B candidate behind Barmes and in front of Baker or Stewart.
Behind the plate is Chris Iannetta who has missed most of camp activities with the Rox while he attends to catching chores for Team USA in the WBC. A .462 average in WBC play point to Iannetta being ready for the season with the former Tar Hell coming off an 18-HR campaign in 2008. Yorvit Torrealba will be the backup.
The outfield appears to be set with Seth Smith in left, Ryan Spilborghs in center and Brad Hawpe in right. Smith and Stewart will share left to open the season and their battle for the starting job may not be decided until May or June. Spilborghs excellent spring will lay to rest any notion of Carlos Gonzalez taking over in center for now, but a hot start at Triple-A for Gonzalez and a slow start or injury to Spilborghs could change that in a hurry.
Hawpe is another key to this offense after his numbers fell off a bit from 2007 to 2008. A bum pinkie finger has kept Hawpe from games this spring, and he will need to answer the bell and be a consistent force in this batting order if the Rockies are going to have a shot at contending this year.
Matt Murton and Scott Podsednik might be battling for the last OF slot, and Murton is leading that fight for now.
PITCHING
Even though scoring is down in recent years at Coors Field, the pitching stats for the Rockies did not show that in 2008. The club finished 15th in the NL with a 4.77 ERA, well ahead of the Pirates’ league-worst 5.10 though that is not saying much. The staff did finish fourth in the league by allowing just 148 homers, but they walked too many (562, 10th) for the strikeouts they recorded (1,041, 14th).
Adding Greg Smith to the rotation isn’t going to change those last two stats, but he’s only being counted on to be the left-hander at the end of the starting mix.
Leading the rotation on Opening Day will be Aaron Cook following his 16-9, 3.96 season. Control is Cook’s forte, walking just 48 in over 210 innings last year. Ubaldo Jimenez should get the call in the 2-hole of the rotation followed by Jason Marquis, acquired from the Cubs for reliever Luis Vizcaino.
Marquis might slide to No. 4 in the order just to break up the lefthanders at the back of the rotation if the club is indeed fully committed to having both Smith and Jorge De La Rosa in the mix together. De La Rosa has not had a very good spring, getting shelled in his first few outings, and Smith also hasn’t been that strong though he was limited recently because of the flu. That could open the door for another southpaw, Franklin Morales, to push his way into the mix. No matter, there will be two lefthanders in this rotation.
The acquisition of Street set up a spring battle for the closer role between him and Manny Corpas. If so, then Corpas has already won the job based on their spring stats. Street might even find himself moving lower on the relief ladder with both Ryan Speier and Glendon Rusch looking good this spring. Alan Embree and Matt Belisle should also be in the relief corps as well.
One arm that was set to be part of the setup plans and won’t be available until maybe May or later is Taylor Buchholz who has been sidelined most of camp with a sprained right elbow. In his place to start the year will be Juan Morillo or Randy Flores, with Josh Fogg maybe getting the long relief role.
SCHEDULE
Colorado’s schedule is loaded up with more games on the road than at home early on. And it’s not like the Rox will be facing weak teams on the road in April with two trips to Arizona, one to LA to meet the Dodgers and one to Chicago against the Cubs.
- 23-26 (Home-Away) through May; 62-69 through August
- 11 of first 14 on road, six of them in Arizona
- 18-9 (Home-Away) in September
- 6-3 (Home-Away) vs. Pirates; 4-2 vs. Cubs, 6-9 vs. AL teams
In the five simulations I ran in early February, Colorado average 76.0 wins, reaching .500 with 81 triumphs in one mockup and only reaching 70 wins in another. The Greek has their break set at 77½ with the Over priced at +120 and the Under -140.
Preseason projections from Baseball Prospectus put Colorado on 78 wins.
Betting odds at The Greek have the Rockies lumped into the NL West Field at +165 while 5Dimes list them at +800, behind the Giants (+450) and ahead of the Padres (+1300). The Greek posted the Rockies at +2550 to win their second NL flag and +5250 to win the Series with 5Dimes showing +2500 and +6000 for the same two outcomes.