Professional Sports Bettor- Yahoo article

mcdonae101 · 07-30-14, 07:07 PM

If the college pickem is just picking a straight up winner, those stats r worthless. He nfl spread stats of 88% is unreal tho

James Marques · 07-30-14, 07:07 PM

Oh boy....

nikossf · 07-30-14, 07:31 PM

Originally posted by mcdonae101

If the college pickem is just picking a straight up winner, those stats r worthless. He nfl spread stats of 88% is unreal tho

Yea.. college pick'em is just straight up.. no lines.. but only 10 games to choose from weekly and usually the toughest matchups...

nikossf · 07-30-14, 07:48 PM

Originally posted by James Marques

Oh boy....

Ohh boy what.. Cmon James.. I need serious insight here.. After some thought for a few years now this is becoming my reality.. Just need some heads up here...

easyliving · 07-30-14, 07:54 PM

just read the article so whats your question? I'm not sure what your asking.

pavyracer · 07-30-14, 08:04 PM

Big difference betting 10k a game than 100 a game. Everyone can hit high percentage betting peanuts but few can be pros.

easyliving · 07-30-14, 08:36 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

Big difference betting 10k a game than 100 a game. Everyone can hit high percentage betting peanuts but few can be pros.

surprising to read he aims to win 1 unit a week. Betting offshore winning 1 unit a week seems like easy work with the variety of lines and props offered however not many books will let you continously lay 10k a game.

nikossf · 07-31-14, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by easyliving

surprising to read he aims to win 1 unit a week. Betting offshore winning 1 unit a week seems like easy work with the variety of lines and props offered however not many books will let you continously lay 10k a game.

No... my goal is definitely not 1 unit a week. However this is all I really need with straight odds (-110) and nothing special. BUT.. this is the real world. So my goal is actually higher. Im not arguing, 52% is consistently winning in the long run. BUT, this is the real world and going back to percentages I wont always be betting -110 lines. So I guess my question here is what is the real figure? As a professional not always just betting -110 lines.. what would the percentage really be. I do understand of course this would be hard to determine but im sure there is at least a rough estimate.. my guess is somewhere in the neighborhood of 62-65%..

Basically.. the reason I ask this is because I have done the math and figured based on the past 6 football season.. (Again,. just football.. not much of real TOTAL figure... this is just a 1 sport and a few months of out of the year.. ) I can average about 70%... but this is overall. Against the spread and ML figures!.. So basically some of those ML's could be -200, -250 who knows... but the spreads are usually -110.. Still, 70% clip is nothing freaking insane. This is winning.

nikossf · 07-31-14, 12:19 AM

Just a quick update... these stats are a little different than actual betting.
A few things to consider..

Each week you are given every single game on the board and you must select every a side for each.

There were several weeks where I missed a few games or just missed the entire weekend. Although this does actually hurt my overall % rating because for each non selection it is counted as a loss.

The first year (2008) I only picked the straight up winners (ML) in the NFL.. Didn't realize their was a different option on espn. (Spread)

but still.. damn man.. not bad huh.. regardless... Im going professional bitches!!

Pay me!!

tony_come · 07-31-14, 03:46 AM

Good luck!

Welcome on board

sbrhedge · 07-31-14, 04:02 AM

I talked to Cokin at a few ESPN-hosted events here in Vegas, and one way to look at the "one-bet-per-week" is how it's similar to "one-big-bet-per-hour" in poker.

Say you tag the one-big bet per week or 5 big bets a month at 3K a pop. If you win 3/5 and they are all dogs, you might be looking something like 4K/month income. It's not great, but you can survive on that alone. Plus all the small bets you make each month along the way that are supposedly +EV.

Dave is much better at ML-based sports like MLB .. for me, I'm wired the same way with MLB, NHL, MMA, and soccer. I don't do well with NFL and NBA except maybe the SuperBowl or something like that.

Like trading, sportsbetting is one of the hardest ways to make an easy living.

I would say with your football stats above, you might make it better if you had some other sports in the off season like MLB, NBA, NHL to make it so you have a chance all year round in case you have a bad season.

Dan Kelly · 07-31-14, 05:11 AM

Originally posted by nikossf

Ok,..so I was kinda curious after reading this article on yahoo.. "Toughest jobs in sports: Professional Sports Bettor"... google it to read it if you haven't., worth a read..
Anyways,..after reading this I had to go back to my personal stats.. I have been playing along ESPN pigskin pick'em.. against the spread and ML, and also the College Pick'em for years.. Since 2008. Here are my stats since 08'

College Pick'em
2013 - 73.06%
2012 - 85.74%
2011 - 64.80%
2010 - 73.66%
2009 - 52.63%
2008 - 56.0%

Only 1 real break even season.. 09'

Now onto NFL
NFL pigskin pick'em SPREAD ML

2013 58.60% 69.82%
2012 88.69% 78.03%
2011 88.62% 89.98%
2010 63.78% 67.53%
2009 51.08% 53.29%
2008 0% 94.27%

Again, 09' was a rough year..

Regardless,..if anyone has read this article and now have read these stats.
Any suggestions????

I do have a suggestion => Take some of your money and put it somewhere where you can't get to it until you're completely broke, that way you will have something to make one last bet with when you're broke.

BOL

sbrhedge · 07-31-14, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by nikossf

Ok,..so I was kinda curious after reading this article on yahoo.. "Toughest jobs in sports: Professional Sports Bettor"... google it to read it if you haven't., worth a read..
Anyways,..after reading this I had to go back to my personal stats.. I have been playing along ESPN pigskin pick'em.. against the spread and ML, and also the College Pick'em for years.. Since 2008. Here are my stats since 08'

College Pick'em
2013 - 73.06%
2012 - 85.74%
2011 - 64.80%
2010 - 73.66%
2009 - 52.63%
2008 - 56.0%

Only 1 real break even season.. 09'

Now onto NFL
NFL pigskin pick'em SPREAD ML

2013 58.60% 69.82%
2012 88.69% 78.03%
2011 88.62% 89.98%
2010 63.78% 67.53%
2009 51.08% 53.29%
2008 0% 94.27%

Again, 09' was a rough year..

Regardless,..if anyone has read this article and now have read these stats.
Any suggestions????

also, how many games are you betting each season? that makes a difference

nikossf · 07-31-14, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by sbrhedge

also, how many games are you betting each season? that makes a difference

For the espn games and stats specifically,... I had to pick every single NFL game on the board.
For the college pick'em games they were just 10 of the bigger market match-ups to choose a side for each.

nikossf · 07-31-14, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by sbrhedge

also, how many games are you betting each season? that makes a difference

For the espn games and stats specifically,... I had to pick every single NFL game on the board.
For the college pick'em games they were just 10 of the bigger market match-ups to choose a side for each.

sbrhedge · 07-31-14, 06:38 PM

Originally posted by nikossf

For the espn games and stats specifically,... I had to pick every single NFL game on the board.
For the college pick'em games they were just 10 of the bigger market match-ups to choose a side for each.

that's actually really good then. if you can maintain those numbers .. do it

BUT get a side sport working in the off-season that performs just like your numbers for football

jjgold · 07-31-14, 06:42 PM

Nikos nice work

hope your making cash off it

nikossf · 07-31-14, 07:54 PM

thanks everyone.. just 1 sports though.. I do realize this.. and yes,..if I can get these same stats overlapping other sports as well... then hell.. I have this thing in the bag.. but other sports not as good..
MLB and NBA always give me fits... NCAAB not so much...