Cincinnati Reds on their way up in NL Central
Walt Jocketty might not have this franchise up to speed quite yet, but the lean years are coming to an end in Cincinnati and 2009 will see the Reds on their way up the ranks.
The Queen City, Nasty Nati, The City of Seven Hills, Porkopolis. Regardless what your favorite nickname is for Cincinnati, it remains the locale where professional baseball was born. Never mind that for some time now, the baseball being played has resembled something other than major league caliber.
The lean years may be coming to an end, however. It’s been a little more than two years since a group of investors headed by Robert Castellini took ownership of the club. Castellini, no stranger to investing in MLB clubs, has taken a few steps that should help the Reds end what is now an eight year drought of winning baseball.
One step he took early last year was bringing in Walt Jocketty as a special advisor who in a matter of three months identified one major problem and eventually took over the GM duties after Wayne Krivsky was fired.
It’s taken a while for the likes of Krivsky, and before him, Jim Bowden, to run this team into the ground, and it will take some time for Jocketty to get it back into contention. But back into contention the Reds will be, I’m convinced. Jocketty is at his best rebuilding and cleaning up the messes left behind by others, dating back to his days working for good ol’ Charlie Finley in Oakland.
I have a feeling that if the club doesn’t improve this year – Cincinnati was 74-88 last season – Jocketty’s next improvement might be the manager’s position, presently occupied by Dusty Baker. How much the club needs to improve for Baker to hold his job remains to be seen, but I do see them fighting with the Brewers for third and fourth in the NL Central this year. And who knows? Maybe they’ll even push their way a little higher than that.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Considering the Great American Ball Park is hitter friendly, the offense really stunk the joint up last season. Cincinnati finished last in the NL with a .247 batting average, and not much better in the rankings in runs scored (704, 12th) and on-base (.321, 13th). You can pin a lot of that on a third of the lineup that will not be back in 2009: Ken Griffey Jr (.245 AVG), Corey Patterson (.205 AVG, .238 OB) and Paul Bako (.217 AVG, .299 OB).
Starting behind the plate, Bako is being replaced by Ramon Hernandez, acquired from Baltimore in the deal that sent the ever-versatile and oft-injured Ryan Freel to the O’s this winter. Hernandez may not provide a huge lift over Bako in on-base percentage, but he will add a little more pop and should hit 15+ HR this season for Cincy. His backup will be Ryan Hanigan who is having a bang-up spring in Sarasota, will post a very nice on-base mark but has little to no power.
At first base is Joey Votto, my preseason pick for the NL Rookie of the Year last March. Votto ended up second to Chicago’s Geovany Soto; no argument from me on that. A little bit of a slump in early June cost him a shot at a .300 season, but his .297-.368-.506, 24 HR, 84 RBI numbers were impressive enough and he’s only going to get better.
One hit to the roster the Reds took last March was losing shortstop Alex Gonzalez for the season due to a compression fracture of the left knee. While Jeff Keppinger filled in fairly well, getting Gonzalez back is going to be like adding a free agent this season…assuming his knee does hold up. All signs point to Gonzalez being healthy at this time.
His second base partner will be Brandon Phillips who put up 20-20 numbers which were down from his 30-30 season the previous year. His batting average and on-base mark each dropped about 20 points, something Baker and hitting coach Brook Jacoby are stressing to Phillips this time. If his spring stats are any indication, Phillips has gotten the message.
And rounding out the infield at third is Edwin Encarnacion who also saw dips in average and on-base but posted a career-high 26 homers. In addition to Keppinger, infield reserve jobs could go to Adam Rosales, Paul Janish and Daryle Ward who is in camp as a non-roster invitee and would be used mostly as a pinch-hitter playing behind Votto.
Speaking of non-roster invitees, there are three of them in camp looking for outfield backup roles in Cincinnati. But first, the starters. Jay Bruce is the big stick in right. The 12th overall pick out of high school in 2005, Bruce pretty much tore up every level of minor league ball he played before debuting in the bigs six weeks after his 21st birthday in 2008. As you’d expect, he struggled a bit, especially with pitch selection, facing MLB hurlers but did knock 21 out in his 108 games to finish fifth in the NL ROY voting.
Another Reds outfielder to make his MLB debut last season was Chris Dickerson who will man left field this year. Essentially called up to take over for Adam Dunn when Dunn was dealt to Arizona, Dickerson quietly hit .304 with a 1.021 OPS. Older than your average rookie – 26 when he made his debut in August ’08 – Dickerson is enjoying a very fine spring.
In center will be fleet-footed Willy Taveras who should be an offensive upgrade over Patterson, assuming he gets back more to his pre-2008 numbers when he managed to just scrape over the .300 mark in on-base percentage for the Rockies in 133 games.
Dickerson may wind up in a platoon in left with Jerry Hairston Jr and Jonny Gomes, one of the three non-roster invitees I alluded to earlier. The other two in camp are Laynce Nix and Jacque Jones. Forget Jones for now, and Nix is also fighting the odds though he’s having a decent spring. Both of them are probably behind Norris Hopper on the chart.
PITCHING
If the Reds are going to make me look smart by challenging for the upper half of the NL Central this year, the mound is where they will have to make most of their push. NO doubt the offense will have to improve as well, but the extra pitching will mean more.
Playing in Great American, the Cincy pitching staff is likely to always rank near the bottom in homers allowed. And the bottom is just where they finished in the column last season when they gave up 201, most in the majors. And the most troubling arm in that category as well as the other pitching lines was Aaron Harang who surrendered 35 on his own in 184.1 innings. That was a 25% increase in long balls over his previous two seasons when he hurled over 230 innings in both 2006 and 2007.
One of the most underrated pitchers in the big leagues from 2005-07, Harang went south last year, and I ain’t talking about crossing state lines into Kentucky. Some of his problems can be attributed to a strained forearm that eventually landed him on the DL around the All-Star break. He did start to come around by season’s end, but then got off to a slow start this spring before looking better in his last start, albeit against the woeful Astros who are having one of the worst springs in MLB history.
If Harang can get back even close to his previous self, it will give the Reds a nice 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Harang teamed with Edinson Volquez. The righthander acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton is coming off a 17-6, 3.21 season and is continuing that fine form this spring.
And if Bronson Arroyo pitches like he did from July on last year, it will give Cincinnati three strong arms in the starting mix. Arroyo’s bad start to 2008 came to a head in Toronto in late June when he served up three gopher balls and was charged with 10 earned runs before recording an out in the second frame. From that point on however, Arroyo posted a 3.42 ERA over his final 17 starts.
Johnny Cueto should give the Reds a reliable starter in the 4-hole. The 23-year-old free agent from the Dominican Republic bulled his way into the starting mix with good spring and then started his rookie campaign like a ball of fire before tailing off.
The fifth and final starter appears to be Micah Owings to lose at this point. Another piece in the Dunn trade to the D-Backs, Owings is battling Homer Bailey and Nick Masset for the job, and winning the battle right now. Bailey has options left, and though he is pitching well and there has been some discussion to using him out of the pen, I expect he might go back to Triple-A Louisville before getting the call when another starter may be needed.
Down in the bullpen, Francisco Cordero returns as the closer after a 34 save, 3.33 showing in ’08. He was charged with six blown saves, but none after July 21. He was well supported last year by the relievers in front of him, but one of those cogs is now missing as lefty Jeremy Affeldt as moved on to the Giants.
A good group still remains in Jared Burton (3.22), David Weathers (3.25), Bill Bray (2.87) and Mike Lincoln (4.48). With Bray the only lefthander in that group, Cincinnati went out and inked Arthur Rhodes to a 2-year, $4 million dollar deal in December, and right now that looks like wasted money. With the commitment, Rhodes will probably stick; given his history, he should be on the DL by early May at which time Aaron Fultz will be called up from Louisville.
Ramon Ramirez or one of the arms that loses out on the No. 5 job in the rotation will serve as the long reliever.
SCHEDULE
The Reds have a fairly well-balanced schedule, especially for being in the NL Central. And they will get a shot to show the division what they’re made of this year early with most of their April slate against division rivals.
PROJECTIONS
Admittedly, picking the Reds to be in the hunt for third or even second in the NL Central isn’t that much of a stretch. To begin with they won 74 times last season, and suggesting they win 79 this year, as my simulations came out, is a modest improvement and certainly capable of being the third-best record in the group.
Now to get to 80 or more wins, that might be a bit tougher. Here again however, it’s not outrageous. Cincinnati closed last season with five losses and they were absolutely horrible in 2008 when facing Houston, a team I look to drop in the standings. Houston swept the Reds in six games at Great American, and went 6-3 against them at Minute Maid to stand 12-3 on the year. In those 15 games, the Astros outscored Cincy by an 84-48 margin, and I look for that to even out at the least in 2009.
The Greek has their win totals breaking at 80½ with the Over at +150 and the Under -170. I’m not convinced the Reds will get to .500 this season, though as I’ve said it wouldn’t surprise me. Cincinnati is part of the NL Central Field priced at +585 on the betting odds at The Greek where they are +2550 to win their first NL Pennant since 1990, and +8050 to capture their sixth World Series.
Walt Jocketty might not have this franchise up to speed quite yet, but the lean years are coming to an end in Cincinnati and 2009 will see the Reds on their way up the ranks.
The Queen City, Nasty Nati, The City of Seven Hills, Porkopolis. Regardless what your favorite nickname is for Cincinnati, it remains the locale where professional baseball was born. Never mind that for some time now, the baseball being played has resembled something other than major league caliber.
The lean years may be coming to an end, however. It’s been a little more than two years since a group of investors headed by Robert Castellini took ownership of the club. Castellini, no stranger to investing in MLB clubs, has taken a few steps that should help the Reds end what is now an eight year drought of winning baseball.
One step he took early last year was bringing in Walt Jocketty as a special advisor who in a matter of three months identified one major problem and eventually took over the GM duties after Wayne Krivsky was fired.
It’s taken a while for the likes of Krivsky, and before him, Jim Bowden, to run this team into the ground, and it will take some time for Jocketty to get it back into contention. But back into contention the Reds will be, I’m convinced. Jocketty is at his best rebuilding and cleaning up the messes left behind by others, dating back to his days working for good ol’ Charlie Finley in Oakland.
I have a feeling that if the club doesn’t improve this year – Cincinnati was 74-88 last season – Jocketty’s next improvement might be the manager’s position, presently occupied by Dusty Baker. How much the club needs to improve for Baker to hold his job remains to be seen, but I do see them fighting with the Brewers for third and fourth in the NL Central this year. And who knows? Maybe they’ll even push their way a little higher than that.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Considering the Great American Ball Park is hitter friendly, the offense really stunk the joint up last season. Cincinnati finished last in the NL with a .247 batting average, and not much better in the rankings in runs scored (704, 12th) and on-base (.321, 13th). You can pin a lot of that on a third of the lineup that will not be back in 2009: Ken Griffey Jr (.245 AVG), Corey Patterson (.205 AVG, .238 OB) and Paul Bako (.217 AVG, .299 OB).
Starting behind the plate, Bako is being replaced by Ramon Hernandez, acquired from Baltimore in the deal that sent the ever-versatile and oft-injured Ryan Freel to the O’s this winter. Hernandez may not provide a huge lift over Bako in on-base percentage, but he will add a little more pop and should hit 15+ HR this season for Cincy. His backup will be Ryan Hanigan who is having a bang-up spring in Sarasota, will post a very nice on-base mark but has little to no power.
At first base is Joey Votto, my preseason pick for the NL Rookie of the Year last March. Votto ended up second to Chicago’s Geovany Soto; no argument from me on that. A little bit of a slump in early June cost him a shot at a .300 season, but his .297-.368-.506, 24 HR, 84 RBI numbers were impressive enough and he’s only going to get better.
One hit to the roster the Reds took last March was losing shortstop Alex Gonzalez for the season due to a compression fracture of the left knee. While Jeff Keppinger filled in fairly well, getting Gonzalez back is going to be like adding a free agent this season…assuming his knee does hold up. All signs point to Gonzalez being healthy at this time.
His second base partner will be Brandon Phillips who put up 20-20 numbers which were down from his 30-30 season the previous year. His batting average and on-base mark each dropped about 20 points, something Baker and hitting coach Brook Jacoby are stressing to Phillips this time. If his spring stats are any indication, Phillips has gotten the message.
And rounding out the infield at third is Edwin Encarnacion who also saw dips in average and on-base but posted a career-high 26 homers. In addition to Keppinger, infield reserve jobs could go to Adam Rosales, Paul Janish and Daryle Ward who is in camp as a non-roster invitee and would be used mostly as a pinch-hitter playing behind Votto.
Speaking of non-roster invitees, there are three of them in camp looking for outfield backup roles in Cincinnati. But first, the starters. Jay Bruce is the big stick in right. The 12th overall pick out of high school in 2005, Bruce pretty much tore up every level of minor league ball he played before debuting in the bigs six weeks after his 21st birthday in 2008. As you’d expect, he struggled a bit, especially with pitch selection, facing MLB hurlers but did knock 21 out in his 108 games to finish fifth in the NL ROY voting.
Another Reds outfielder to make his MLB debut last season was Chris Dickerson who will man left field this year. Essentially called up to take over for Adam Dunn when Dunn was dealt to Arizona, Dickerson quietly hit .304 with a 1.021 OPS. Older than your average rookie – 26 when he made his debut in August ’08 – Dickerson is enjoying a very fine spring.
In center will be fleet-footed Willy Taveras who should be an offensive upgrade over Patterson, assuming he gets back more to his pre-2008 numbers when he managed to just scrape over the .300 mark in on-base percentage for the Rockies in 133 games.
Dickerson may wind up in a platoon in left with Jerry Hairston Jr and Jonny Gomes, one of the three non-roster invitees I alluded to earlier. The other two in camp are Laynce Nix and Jacque Jones. Forget Jones for now, and Nix is also fighting the odds though he’s having a decent spring. Both of them are probably behind Norris Hopper on the chart.
PITCHING
If the Reds are going to make me look smart by challenging for the upper half of the NL Central this year, the mound is where they will have to make most of their push. NO doubt the offense will have to improve as well, but the extra pitching will mean more.
Playing in Great American, the Cincy pitching staff is likely to always rank near the bottom in homers allowed. And the bottom is just where they finished in the column last season when they gave up 201, most in the majors. And the most troubling arm in that category as well as the other pitching lines was Aaron Harang who surrendered 35 on his own in 184.1 innings. That was a 25% increase in long balls over his previous two seasons when he hurled over 230 innings in both 2006 and 2007.
One of the most underrated pitchers in the big leagues from 2005-07, Harang went south last year, and I ain’t talking about crossing state lines into Kentucky. Some of his problems can be attributed to a strained forearm that eventually landed him on the DL around the All-Star break. He did start to come around by season’s end, but then got off to a slow start this spring before looking better in his last start, albeit against the woeful Astros who are having one of the worst springs in MLB history.
If Harang can get back even close to his previous self, it will give the Reds a nice 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation with Harang teamed with Edinson Volquez. The righthander acquired from Texas for Josh Hamilton is coming off a 17-6, 3.21 season and is continuing that fine form this spring.
And if Bronson Arroyo pitches like he did from July on last year, it will give Cincinnati three strong arms in the starting mix. Arroyo’s bad start to 2008 came to a head in Toronto in late June when he served up three gopher balls and was charged with 10 earned runs before recording an out in the second frame. From that point on however, Arroyo posted a 3.42 ERA over his final 17 starts.
Johnny Cueto should give the Reds a reliable starter in the 4-hole. The 23-year-old free agent from the Dominican Republic bulled his way into the starting mix with good spring and then started his rookie campaign like a ball of fire before tailing off.
The fifth and final starter appears to be Micah Owings to lose at this point. Another piece in the Dunn trade to the D-Backs, Owings is battling Homer Bailey and Nick Masset for the job, and winning the battle right now. Bailey has options left, and though he is pitching well and there has been some discussion to using him out of the pen, I expect he might go back to Triple-A Louisville before getting the call when another starter may be needed.
Down in the bullpen, Francisco Cordero returns as the closer after a 34 save, 3.33 showing in ’08. He was charged with six blown saves, but none after July 21. He was well supported last year by the relievers in front of him, but one of those cogs is now missing as lefty Jeremy Affeldt as moved on to the Giants.
A good group still remains in Jared Burton (3.22), David Weathers (3.25), Bill Bray (2.87) and Mike Lincoln (4.48). With Bray the only lefthander in that group, Cincinnati went out and inked Arthur Rhodes to a 2-year, $4 million dollar deal in December, and right now that looks like wasted money. With the commitment, Rhodes will probably stick; given his history, he should be on the DL by early May at which time Aaron Fultz will be called up from Louisville.
Ramon Ramirez or one of the arms that loses out on the No. 5 job in the rotation will serve as the long reliever.
SCHEDULE
The Reds have a fairly well-balanced schedule, especially for being in the NL Central. And they will get a shot to show the division what they’re made of this year early with most of their April slate against division rivals.
- 16 of first 22 games vs NL Central
- 26-24 (Home-Away) through May; 66-64 through August
- 39-41 (Home-Away) vs NL Central
- 6-9 (Home-Away) vs. the Cubs, 6-9 vs. AL, 6-3 vs. the Braves
PROJECTIONS
Admittedly, picking the Reds to be in the hunt for third or even second in the NL Central isn’t that much of a stretch. To begin with they won 74 times last season, and suggesting they win 79 this year, as my simulations came out, is a modest improvement and certainly capable of being the third-best record in the group.
Now to get to 80 or more wins, that might be a bit tougher. Here again however, it’s not outrageous. Cincinnati closed last season with five losses and they were absolutely horrible in 2008 when facing Houston, a team I look to drop in the standings. Houston swept the Reds in six games at Great American, and went 6-3 against them at Minute Maid to stand 12-3 on the year. In those 15 games, the Astros outscored Cincy by an 84-48 margin, and I look for that to even out at the least in 2009.
The Greek has their win totals breaking at 80½ with the Over at +150 and the Under -170. I’m not convinced the Reds will get to .500 this season, though as I’ve said it wouldn’t surprise me. Cincinnati is part of the NL Central Field priced at +585 on the betting odds at The Greek where they are +2550 to win their first NL Pennant since 1990, and +8050 to capture their sixth World Series.