Check out this ticket from 6/25 (Lincecum's No Hitter), What Gives?

[James Marques]

As much as I'd like to claim this prediction, this IS NOT my ticket. A buddy of mine sent this to me via text on Wednesday, just after cashing thanks to Lincecum's no hitter. Part of me thought, "Well, good for him."

But the other part of me thought: "Is that not the worst number you've ever seen for a no hitter?" I mean odds like that assume a no hitter what... every other day??

Am I crazy in assuming that ticket should be more like 300 to 1?

[playersonly69]

Those are HORRENDOUS odds! But having said that, they do factor in who is pitching on that specific day. I think that Darvish and Tanaka were also pitching

[James Marques]

Darvish, Tanaka, Lincecum, and Kershaw I think. Good point.

[playersonly69]

Also Vegas doesn't need to offer better odds. The same people who will take it at 100 to 1 will also take it at 30 to 1 most likely

[Killer_Demo]

Your right, horrible odds.

[TheCentaur]

Darvish, Tanaka, Lincecum, and Kershaw I think. Good point.

IDK, I think on any given full day of MLB, 3 or 4 aces will be pitching.

So odds are pretty bad. You would have to see 6 no hitters per yr to break even, and the avg. is about 2 per year

[daneblazer]

Wow who would bet that? The Padres were marching out a AA lineup, but still

[TheCentaur]

Wow who would bet that? The Padres were marching out a AA lineup, but still

It was for all games on 6/25, not just Giants/Padres

[daneblazer]

It was for all games on 6/25, not just Giants/Padres

[Kaabee]

the odds of throwing a no-hitter is about 1 in 1548. there were 15 games that day. so roughly 1 in 100.

[Big Bear]

[ATTACH]70125[/ATTACH]

As much as I'd like to claim this prediction, this IS NOT my ticket. A buddy of mine sent this to me via text on Wednesday, just after cashing thanks to Lincecum's no hitter. Part of me thought, "Well, good for him."

But the other part of me thought: "Is that not the worst number you've ever seen for a no hitter?" I mean odds like that assume a no hitter what... every other day??

Am I crazy in assuming that ticket should be more like 300 to 1?

i agree.Horrible number.

[Big Bear]

Darvish, Tanaka, Lincecum, and Kershaw I think. Good point.

Bullshit. Kershaw was not pitching that day bro he threw the night befo

[jjgold]

where is silver sevens??

[LT Profits]

Correct, terrible odds. But that is nothing new for props like this.

[James Marques]

Bullshit. Kershaw was not pitching that day bro he threw the night befo

You're right. I was going just off memory, but he did indeed pitch the night before.

[TheCentaur]

where is silver sevens??

....

[eidolon]

There have been an average of 5 no-hitters the last 4 years.
2430 games played in the season.
10 games were played yesterday.
2430 / (5*10) = 48.6 odds

[Kaabee]

...

[Kaabee]

There have been an average of 5 no-hitters the last 4 years.
2430 games played in the season.
10 games were played yesterday.
2430 / (5*10) = 48.6 odds

15 games played that day.

[DrStale]

Bullshit. Kershaw was not pitching that day bro he threw the night befo

You don't have to call "Bullshit" when someone says "I think" you clown.

[TheCentaur]

There have been an average of 5 no-hitters the last 4 years.

Why did you pick 4 years?
avg. of 2.7 last 10 years
avg. of 2.3 last 20 years

Either way bad odds

[KRIT]

Great that he won, but horrible odds. I wonder how many Andrew Jackson's he's wasted on this type of bet? I'd need at least 100:1 to bet it.

[rm18]

you can bet -6000 that there is no no hitter if you think it is +EV

[eidolon]

Why did you pick 4 years?
avg. of 2.7 last 10 years
avg. of 2.3 last 20 years

Either way bad odds

93-07 was the steroid years.
And yes, I wanted to just take a number from recent years, and not the last 140 years

[jjgold]

nothing like Vegas