Trend Betting??

[slugger]

I follow many trends and now try to handicap off them. I see what trends are working and just bet the system. I do not try and see what teams did what the day before, ect.

I guess what I do is similar to chart trading with stocks.

[jjgold]

I mainly look at teams last 3 games or so only

[raiders72001]

I'm not exactly sure what type of trends that you are talking about. Many people try and back fit systems and I've found that very dangerous to use.

[Senator7]

Regardless of what some touts tell you, trend betting is seriously hazardous to your bankroll. No two games are ever played under the exact circumstances. Ignore trends and try to find out which team is better and by how much.

Senator 7

[jjgold]

Senator I think that is the best way but tons of players bet scenarios like

Favorite 4-0 on Monday nights on the road...............

[pags11]

I look at trends as far as past history of matchups...if a certain team does better against another team...or how they are ATS at home vs. the road (Hawaii in football for example)...I believe that trends are just part of the overall handicapping of games...hope this helps...

[BuddyBear]

There is a big difference between team trends and situational strends!

Team trends just look at a team. For example, Minnesota is 14-2 in their last 16 matchups after losing to a team from the AFC West. This is as useless a trend as you are going to find. One this stat isl likely to span nearly 2 decades worth of games. Second, teams are different every time. Three, there is no theory that explains this. Translation this is what's known as a spurious relationship. It's fake...there is nothing there!

On the other hand, if you had something like in the NFL, home dogs who were home favorites the week before and lost SU are 142-113 over the past two decades now you have something to work with. First, you have a huge sample (N=255 games). Two you are looking at every team in the NFL in the same situation. In effect, the situation is held constant. Third, this trend has beat the test of time. Finally, there is theory behind this trend. Remember the goals of theory are to describe, explain, and predict. You can certainly construct a theory here that would work.

These are the type of trends you'll want to keep an eye out for and put in your file drawer.

[bigboydan]

i use trends as more of a guide than anything else. there are many other factors you have to factor in and, not base everything on the trends sometimes.

[Senator7]

Well stated as usual, my fellow Wisconsinite! That's what I was trying to say but didn't quite know how to say it!

Senator 7

[why]

I don't bet trends, I cap the games in my head and if the # is off by .20 I bet it. I stick to ML's, I hate spreads. I do like betting the ML and taking the points and the dog in capped games with a disparity of 2 points! One game of interest this week in the NFL, Cowboys -169, buy the Giants to +6, I think it will land in the middle.

[jjgold]

Great Post Buddy

[Ganchrow]

I guess what I do is similar to chart trading with stocks.

Which, in turn, is rather similar to palmistry.

[Ganchrow]

On the other hand, if you had something like in the NFL, home dogs who were home favorites the week before and lost SU are 142-113 over the past two decades now you have something to work with. First, you have a huge sample (N=255 games).

FYI, given a result such as this (142-113 at 10/11 odds) it would not be statistically sound to conclude that one had a profitable strategy at even the 95% confidence level. A level that is almost certainly woefully inadequate for examining numerous "situational trends". Stanford Wong, for one, advocates using somewhere between a 99% and 99.9% confidence level. In fact, the confidence level in this case would only be 84%.

For 95% confidence one would need to be at 147 wins, for 99% 153 wons, and for 99.9% about 159 wins.

Given the paucity of games in the NFL, it's exceptionally difficult for statistical analysis to yield robust results for anything but the most general of "situational trends".

[steelerfan]

i have a trend. if the team lost by more than 20 points, then bet them heavy.

[sjelveh]

Don’t believe in trends, but I do believe in streaks. So, no matter what am going to keep betting v tech and Texas till they don’t cover, I was betting usc, but they finally didn’t cover 2 weeks ago against Arizona st. I also made a s**t load of money betting against san diego st my alma mater last year.