2009 MLB Preview: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays set for encore in AL East
Last year's Cinderella crew, the Tampa Bay Rays will have targets on their backs in 2009 after upsetting Boston and New York in the AL East. Evan Longoria and Company are out to prove it was no fluke.
Here’s one team that my simulations totally missed last season, and quite frankly I’m not too upset about it. With the mock runs suggesting 74 triumphs for the Rays in 2008, Tampa Bay came home with 97 instead and won the AL East.
One reason I wasn’t too upset is after seeing the Yankees and Red Sox own the division from 1998-2007, it was refreshing to see some other team win the AL East. The fact it was a team that had never finished higher than fourth in the group, and only once reached the 70-win plateau made it even better.
Another reason is there are some things in life you simply can’t explain or forecast. Like my pop told me years ago, “Sometimes there just isn’t a why.”
In this case, there might be a ‘why.’ Manager Joe Maddon had his troops believing in themselves from Day 1 and the new attitude showed. And in case you’re one that does not believe in the intangibles that permeate our daily lives, the young starting rotation came of age and Maddon pushed the right buttons at the right time to manufacture a few runs for an offense that was pedestrian by AL standards.
Now comes the trick of repeating. No team is going to see Tampa Bay on their schedule this season and automatically think they can take two of three or even sweep a series. And given the team is still very young, how they perform under this new pressure will be crucial to their chances of making the postseason a second consecutive season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Now I know there are some Rays fans out there who read my ‘pedestrian’ comment about their offense in 2008 and immediately came to the conclusion that I’m nuts. Well I’m here to tell that may be the case, I may indeed be nuts. But this was not a great offense last season.
Tampa finished ninth in the AL with 774 runs scored, averaging 4.93 runs per game at The Trop and 4.63 runs on the road. The Rays ranked 13th in the league in average (.260) and just in the second division of slugging with a .422 mark, eighth in the AL. They also showed a penchant for striking out with 1,224 K’s on the scorecard, two less than the A’s who struck out the most in the American League.
On the plus side, Tampa led the AL with 142 steals and ranked fourth in on-base (.340), walking 626 times (3.9 per game) to finish behind the Red Sox in working free passes.
If you believe the offense will be better in 2009, as I do, then you shouldn’t be too concerned about my grade of ‘pedestrian’ for 2008. Tampa returns all eight of their regular position players, meaning a full season from Evan Longoria and hopefully a full, healthy season from Carl Crawford. Add in their new DH Pat Burrell, signed away from the Phillies who beat them in the World Series, and the offense should see their output increased by about 8% from a year ago, or roughly another 60-65 runs on the bottom line.
Having Burrell in the order should give Carlos Peña and Longoria a little more protection after the pair served as the primary power sticks in ’08. Joining Peña and Longoria on the infield will be second baseman Akinori Iwamura and shortstop Jason Bartlett. Iwamura has spent most of his spring traveling with the Japanese team in the World Baseball Classic, and that has given Adam Kennedy a chance to play a little. Bartlett has been hot during the spring with a .375 average and nine runs scored in nine spring games.
Kennedy should stick as a reserve, joining Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist in backup roles. Both Aybar and Zobrist are very versatile, with Zobrist playing six positions last year – 2B, SS, 3B and all three OF slots – while hitting 12 homers and posting an .844 OPS in 62 games.
All three outfielders return with Crawford in left, B.J. Upton in center and Gabe Gross in right. Upton had some shoulder surgery during the winter and may not be ready for Opening Day. If that happens then look for Zobrist or Gabe Gross to start in center for the first week or so while Upton continues to rehab. Another option would be for Crawford to slide from left to center with Burrell taking over in left. However, the Gross-Zobrist plan makes more sense from a defensive angle.
Dioner Navarro, an All-Star last July, returns behind the plate and will once again be backed up by Shawn Riggans. That pair combined for 13 homers and 78 RBI last season.
PITCHING
Even if the offense churns along at the same clip it did in ’08, the team should still be in the thick of the AL playoff hunt with their pitching staff. The rotation is still very young but proved they were ready last year when the pieces all came together. Tampa finished second in the AL with a 3.82 ERA, ranking fourth in strikeouts (1,143) and posting a 1.28 staff WHIP.
The front four of the rotation returns led by James Shields who pitched an even 215 innings for a second straight year. Those 215 frames were stretched out over two extra starts than he made in ’07, and while his strikeouts were down from 184 to 160 in 2008, he was able to lower his ERA almost a third of a run to 3.56 in their AL Championship season.
Following Shields in the order should be lefthander Scott Kazmir and righthanders Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza. All four were double-digit winners in 2008, with Sonnanstine’s 4.38 ERA the highest of the bunch.
The only starter not to return is Edwin Jackson, and that leaves the fifth lost in the rotation to a spring battle between David Price, Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann, all of whom are 26 or younger. All three are also having solid springs making the decision tough on Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey. Price would add a second southpaw to the mix and is going to be the ace of the staff at some point. But if he’s not the one selected for the rotation coming out of spring – and here again, we get into money and service time – then he will be headed to Triple-A. All three also made appearances out of the bullpen last year, so whoever misses out on the starter’s job could pitch in relief. However, don’t look for Price in that role.
Speaking of the bullpen, it was an underrated group last year with Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler combining for 41 saves while both Grant Balfour and lefty J.P. Howell were brilliant in middle and setup roles. Balfour did miss a little time this spring with a bruised arm courtesy of a line drive.
Brian Shouse or Randy Choate could stick as a second lefty for the relief corps and Lance Cormier is another possible mop-up or middle relief option at this time. Plus I suspect either Hammel or Niemann, maybe both, will be in the pen.
And then there’s Jason Isringhausen who is in camp. With Percival’s age and somewhat shaky medical history over the years, do the Rays really need another arm like that? Probably not, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
SCHEDULE
If they are close to the top of the AL East or leading come September, Tampa should be in good shape since they will have five extra home games over the final five weeks of the season. That late slate includes their final seven games of the season at The Trop vs. the Orioles and Yankees.
Apparently my simulation program learned from its mistake last season as Tampa raced through the five mock schedules averaging 87.0 wins. The high was 93 and the low was 80. In that 80-win simulation, both Longoria and Upton missed significant time, about 40 games between them.
The Greek has set their win break at 87½ (Over -165, Under +145). I’m very tempted to drop a few dollars in the Under at this time since three of the five sim runs didn’t reach that mark.
Betting odds at The Greek list the Rays at +500 to win the AL East while 5Dimes has them at +400. So I might hedge an Under 87½ wins at The Greek with a little coin on them to repeat in the division. The Greek also lists Tampa at +725 to win a second consecutive AL Pennant while giving them a +1415 price to go all the way this time. That puts the Rays sixth in line to win the World Series at that shop.
Last year's Cinderella crew, the Tampa Bay Rays will have targets on their backs in 2009 after upsetting Boston and New York in the AL East. Evan Longoria and Company are out to prove it was no fluke.
Here’s one team that my simulations totally missed last season, and quite frankly I’m not too upset about it. With the mock runs suggesting 74 triumphs for the Rays in 2008, Tampa Bay came home with 97 instead and won the AL East.
One reason I wasn’t too upset is after seeing the Yankees and Red Sox own the division from 1998-2007, it was refreshing to see some other team win the AL East. The fact it was a team that had never finished higher than fourth in the group, and only once reached the 70-win plateau made it even better.
Another reason is there are some things in life you simply can’t explain or forecast. Like my pop told me years ago, “Sometimes there just isn’t a why.”
In this case, there might be a ‘why.’ Manager Joe Maddon had his troops believing in themselves from Day 1 and the new attitude showed. And in case you’re one that does not believe in the intangibles that permeate our daily lives, the young starting rotation came of age and Maddon pushed the right buttons at the right time to manufacture a few runs for an offense that was pedestrian by AL standards.
Now comes the trick of repeating. No team is going to see Tampa Bay on their schedule this season and automatically think they can take two of three or even sweep a series. And given the team is still very young, how they perform under this new pressure will be crucial to their chances of making the postseason a second consecutive season.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Now I know there are some Rays fans out there who read my ‘pedestrian’ comment about their offense in 2008 and immediately came to the conclusion that I’m nuts. Well I’m here to tell that may be the case, I may indeed be nuts. But this was not a great offense last season.
Tampa finished ninth in the AL with 774 runs scored, averaging 4.93 runs per game at The Trop and 4.63 runs on the road. The Rays ranked 13th in the league in average (.260) and just in the second division of slugging with a .422 mark, eighth in the AL. They also showed a penchant for striking out with 1,224 K’s on the scorecard, two less than the A’s who struck out the most in the American League.
On the plus side, Tampa led the AL with 142 steals and ranked fourth in on-base (.340), walking 626 times (3.9 per game) to finish behind the Red Sox in working free passes.
If you believe the offense will be better in 2009, as I do, then you shouldn’t be too concerned about my grade of ‘pedestrian’ for 2008. Tampa returns all eight of their regular position players, meaning a full season from Evan Longoria and hopefully a full, healthy season from Carl Crawford. Add in their new DH Pat Burrell, signed away from the Phillies who beat them in the World Series, and the offense should see their output increased by about 8% from a year ago, or roughly another 60-65 runs on the bottom line.
Having Burrell in the order should give Carlos Peña and Longoria a little more protection after the pair served as the primary power sticks in ’08. Joining Peña and Longoria on the infield will be second baseman Akinori Iwamura and shortstop Jason Bartlett. Iwamura has spent most of his spring traveling with the Japanese team in the World Baseball Classic, and that has given Adam Kennedy a chance to play a little. Bartlett has been hot during the spring with a .375 average and nine runs scored in nine spring games.
Kennedy should stick as a reserve, joining Willy Aybar and Ben Zobrist in backup roles. Both Aybar and Zobrist are very versatile, with Zobrist playing six positions last year – 2B, SS, 3B and all three OF slots – while hitting 12 homers and posting an .844 OPS in 62 games.
All three outfielders return with Crawford in left, B.J. Upton in center and Gabe Gross in right. Upton had some shoulder surgery during the winter and may not be ready for Opening Day. If that happens then look for Zobrist or Gabe Gross to start in center for the first week or so while Upton continues to rehab. Another option would be for Crawford to slide from left to center with Burrell taking over in left. However, the Gross-Zobrist plan makes more sense from a defensive angle.
Dioner Navarro, an All-Star last July, returns behind the plate and will once again be backed up by Shawn Riggans. That pair combined for 13 homers and 78 RBI last season.
PITCHING
Even if the offense churns along at the same clip it did in ’08, the team should still be in the thick of the AL playoff hunt with their pitching staff. The rotation is still very young but proved they were ready last year when the pieces all came together. Tampa finished second in the AL with a 3.82 ERA, ranking fourth in strikeouts (1,143) and posting a 1.28 staff WHIP.
The front four of the rotation returns led by James Shields who pitched an even 215 innings for a second straight year. Those 215 frames were stretched out over two extra starts than he made in ’07, and while his strikeouts were down from 184 to 160 in 2008, he was able to lower his ERA almost a third of a run to 3.56 in their AL Championship season.
Following Shields in the order should be lefthander Scott Kazmir and righthanders Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza. All four were double-digit winners in 2008, with Sonnanstine’s 4.38 ERA the highest of the bunch.
The only starter not to return is Edwin Jackson, and that leaves the fifth lost in the rotation to a spring battle between David Price, Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann, all of whom are 26 or younger. All three are also having solid springs making the decision tough on Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey. Price would add a second southpaw to the mix and is going to be the ace of the staff at some point. But if he’s not the one selected for the rotation coming out of spring – and here again, we get into money and service time – then he will be headed to Triple-A. All three also made appearances out of the bullpen last year, so whoever misses out on the starter’s job could pitch in relief. However, don’t look for Price in that role.
Speaking of the bullpen, it was an underrated group last year with Troy Percival and Dan Wheeler combining for 41 saves while both Grant Balfour and lefty J.P. Howell were brilliant in middle and setup roles. Balfour did miss a little time this spring with a bruised arm courtesy of a line drive.
Brian Shouse or Randy Choate could stick as a second lefty for the relief corps and Lance Cormier is another possible mop-up or middle relief option at this time. Plus I suspect either Hammel or Niemann, maybe both, will be in the pen.
And then there’s Jason Isringhausen who is in camp. With Percival’s age and somewhat shaky medical history over the years, do the Rays really need another arm like that? Probably not, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.
SCHEDULE
If they are close to the top of the AL East or leading come September, Tampa should be in good shape since they will have five extra home games over the final five weeks of the season. That late slate includes their final seven games of the season at The Trop vs. the Orioles and Yankees.
- 24-29 (Home-Away) through May; 63-68 through August
- On June 28, the Rays will have played the Marlins six and yet to play the Blue Jays
- The Rays have one rather circuitous travel schedule in June when they will be home on June 14 to face the Nationals, then travel to play the Rockies in Denver, back across to New York to play the Mets than back to Tampa to face the Phillies and Marlins in a homestand
- 7-3 (Home-Away) vs. the Royals and A’s; 3-6 vs. the Rangers, 2-6 vs. the Mariners with those two home games not coming until Sep 22-23
Apparently my simulation program learned from its mistake last season as Tampa raced through the five mock schedules averaging 87.0 wins. The high was 93 and the low was 80. In that 80-win simulation, both Longoria and Upton missed significant time, about 40 games between them.
The Greek has set their win break at 87½ (Over -165, Under +145). I’m very tempted to drop a few dollars in the Under at this time since three of the five sim runs didn’t reach that mark.
Betting odds at The Greek list the Rays at +500 to win the AL East while 5Dimes has them at +400. So I might hedge an Under 87½ wins at The Greek with a little coin on them to repeat in the division. The Greek also lists Tampa at +725 to win a second consecutive AL Pennant while giving them a +1415 price to go all the way this time. That puts the Rays sixth in line to win the World Series at that shop.