Point Spread is Created with Trying to Beat the Wise Guys!!!

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

A number of sports gamblers, both beginners and veterans, fail to understand the true meaning of the point spread and the thought process that goes behind the making of the spread for each game. The sportsbooks are aware that the so-called wise guys (smart bettors) are going to wager more money on the average than a typical bettor, so the point spread is created with trying to beat the wise guys. If a sportsbook has the wise guys on one team and the general public betting on the other side, they typically will be rooting for the public, with the knowledge that the public bettors are more likely to give back their winnings on another game. The next time you see a point spread, remember the person taking the bet doesn't necessarily believe the favored team is that many points better than the underdog, but they do think the point spread will generate an equal amount of money wagered on both teams. The point spread isn't designed to be a true representation of how much better one team is than another, but is designed to attract an equal amount of money on both teams, so that the sportsbooks are guaranteed a profit. A rule of thought "follow the money" The most important thing that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. I live in Las Vegas and alive and well, making my bets at Sports Book at Caesars Palace Las Vegas. That's why I am 5-0 For NBA Championship games. All my threads are posted with "$Wins$" taking and laying points in SBR sports forum NBA if you care to check.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
PS... Look for my threads this fall for NFL[ 2013 season of NFL including play-offs and super bowl was 76% 6 out 8 in play-offs and the Superbowl all in the money. All my threads and predictions are posted with SRB sports forum NFL. Good luck all!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Harry N. Lloyd]

A tip of the hat, sir......I've always enjoyed your perspective. Good luck this upcoming season, from one Harry to another!

[SeanL69]

I disagree. I think that the initial line indicates the total opposite of what you said. It DOES indicate how many points better/worse team A is from team B.

It's the adjustments made to the opening line that allows the books trying to get action on each side. ie; the difference between +3 and +3.5.

The LVSC does not consider who they think sharps MAY bet. The "sharps" are the ones who come in with heavy money on a weak line.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

My friend you are only as strong as your bankroll going against books & bookmakers because they have more money then you do. You have to remember when wagering that the juice will eat you up, if you lose too too many bets, all you are doing is getting even.... weren't you even when you walked up to betting window at book before you made your bet Sean 69??? Very best of luck to you and thanks for your comment.

[SeanL69]

Mr Hat when you say the juice will eat me up, are you referring to the -110 juice (aka vig)?

I'm failing to associate what juice/vig has to do with, "bet what the public is betting", and "follow the money". What exactly are you trying to say? If you live in Vegas you know as I do, the popular spots people come and go. Most, if not all of them homers. What I'm reading from your whole statement is to tail the public.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Regardless of the wager, perception is the thing that bettors thrive on. It's about how you perceive the line, the competing teams, the flow of action. It ultimately comes down to absorbing as much information as you can and reaching conclusions that will be truer than those of the sports books and the other gamblers. I will come up with a number, and if my number is different from that of the sports book, I bet it. There's nothing else to do. You've got to be smarter than they are or else you lose."
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Regardless of the wager, perception is the thing that bettors thrive on. It's about how you perceive the line, the competing teams, the flow of action. It ultimately comes down to absorbing as much information as you can and reaching conclusions that will be truer than those of the sports books and the other gamblers. I will come up with a number, and if my number is different from that of the sports book, I bet it. There's nothing else to do. You've got to be smarter than they are or else you lose."

[Ryan999]

The lines originate offshore at Pinnacle and CRIS. They open the games first and let their sophisticated account holders with smaller bankrolls hammer out the line. Once that's done and the overnight geniuses have shaped the market they raise the limits. Other books offshore and Vegas just move on air and copy Pinnacle and CRIS.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

A tip of the hat, sir......I've always enjoyed your perspective. Good luck this upcoming season, from one Harry to another!

Thank you for your comment and very good luck to you Harry

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

The lines originate offshore at Pinnacle and CRIS. They open the games first and let their sophisticated account holders with smaller bankrolls hammer out the line. Once that's done and the overnight geniuses have shaped the market they raise the limits. Other books offshore and Vegas just move on air and copy Pinnacle and CRIS.

Square bettors love to pound the favorite while sharp bettors would simply wait for bookmakers to adjust their odds before taking the underdog at an artificially inflated price. Once oddsmakers post the opening line, sharps and recreational bettor action will move the line in one direction or the other throughout the week. Oddsmakers may use formulas, simulations or other statistics based programs to help them create these numbers, in addition to personal observations. However, one must remember that at the core, the odds are not decided by a computer, but instead are primarily man made.Since they are still primarily decided by the human element, there will certainly be “mistakes” in the lines that will be pounced on by “sharp” bettors. These experienced high-volume handicappers shape the line movement more than any other group of bettors, including the large number of recreational bettors, who are known collectively in bookmaking circles as “squares". However, line moves can happen for a variety of reasons other than just betting action. Changes in weather, coaching decisions, such as who will start at quarterback and injury concerns are all possible reasons for a change in the line. While in some cases, bookmakers may be privy to insider information about an NFL game, they usually get news just as fast as everyone else but are constantly plugged into the newsfeed. Their goal is to move the odds before the masses and wiseguys act on this information.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

In 1951, Binion's Horseshoe hosted a legendary heads-up poker match between poker legend Johnny Moss and wealthy gambler Nick "the Greek" Dandalos. The match went on for months and millions of dollars passed back and forth. Spectators came from all corners to watch, generating serious business for the casino.The World Series of Poker Comes to Binion's . In 1970, the World Series of Poker began. Originally conceptualized as a get together for poker greats who would determine among themselves who was the best, the main event Texas hold'em freezeout, begun in 1971, became the standard way to determine poker's world champion. However another champion arose in NBA & NFL Sports betting and his name was J.J. Bascus who determined himself as the best NFL & NBA sports handicapper in country. His power rating is considered the best 80% true. J.J. myself use too hang out with Lefty Rosenthal and Bob Martin who told us stories about how the line got ironed out before it was given to the rest of the world. The bar was Thoroughbred lounge owned by Bill Miller[Boxing promoter for strip fight of week at the silver slipper casino on the strip in the 70s} where we use meet.The sportsbook we use you hang out was right next door where we use make our bets Sammie Cohen's Santa Anita Sports Book across street from Stardust in 70s.***Note Sports Books Were not incorporated in strip hotels and downtown casinos then****} I probably leaned more about point spreads and money lines from some great old school sports betters there. A rule of thought "follow the money. "A another most important fact that I learned as a streetwise Kid growing up in Vegas is information[ reach out to ever body in your circle of influence in sports betting. I live in Las Vegas and alive and well, making my bets at Sports Book at Caesars Palace Las Vegas. Well"Ladies" and"Gentlemen"of the 'Jury' [SBR Members] that's why I am 5-0 "With and Against the spread" in NBA Championship games. All my threads are posted with SBR sports Forum[NBA] & [NFL].
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
Ps. Good Luck SBR members

[jjgold]

Harry how old are you??

[Darkside Magick]

Harry.....You know Michael Roxborough?

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry how old are you??

IAM 67 YEARS OLD

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry.....You know Michael Roxborough?

---

I don't know him personally Darkside Magick but read [Sports Book Management: A Guide to the Legal Bookmaker”], I buy books at Gamblers General Store Downtown Las Vegas at 800 South Main Street Between Charleston & Freemont Street. If you ever go to Las Vegas stop in see there store, some great books and more Darkside Magick.



Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[Darkside Magick]

---

I don't know him personally Darkside Magick but read [Sports Book Management: A Guide to the Legal Bookmaker”], I buy books at Gamblers General Store Downtown Las Vegas at 800 South Main Street Between Charleston & Freemont Street. If you ever go to Las Vegas stop in see there store, some great books and more Darkside Magick.



Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

Had the book for years...linemakes Bible...book is still use to make opening lines to this day

[jjgold]

Harry your one of the older guys here

I once lost a fight to a 72 year old .

Good luck Harry

[RudyRuetigger]

Harry start using paragraphs

harry I can't see all that

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry your one of the older guys here

I once lost a fight to a 72 year old .

Good luck Harry

REALLYBet It All And Sleep In The Hall, I did when I was Young Puppy Betting Sports In Vegas. Nice To Meet You On SBR Sports Forum and Very Good Luck To In Sports Bets

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry start using paragraphs

harry I can't see all that

Get Some Good Glasses My Friend

[akphidelt]

Disagree completely. Lines are not set for equal action and bookies/Vegas gets crushed when the public teams win. They are set for value.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Disagree completely. Lines are not set for equal action and bookies/Vegas gets crushed when the public teams win. They are set for value.

There are generally two types of sports gamblers. There are those who pick up the schedule and look at the point spreads for each game and say, "Eight points are too many, I'm betting the underdog," or there are those who will pick up the schedule and compare the point spreads to their own numbers and say, "This team is favored by eight points, yet I only have them winning by three, so I'll bet the underdog." Simply stated, power ratings are numbers that show the projected disparity between teams in points from a mathematical perspective. While the point spread has to factor in public opinion, power ratings do not, and for that reason alone, should be more accurate than the point spread more times than not. The fact that most successful sports bettors will most definitely fall into the second category, tells you all you need to know whether it's worth your time and effort to keep power ratings for football and basketball. J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] has determined himself as the best NFL & NBA sports handicapper in the country by his power rating considered the best 80% true. My friends nobody,I mean nobody has a power rating like his. A very important tool I use in betting the NFL& NBA. My record speaks for itself ****[all my threads and predictions are posted with SBR Sports Forum if you care to check]****.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

[akphidelt]

There are generally two types of sports gamblers. There are those who pick up the schedule and look at the point spreads for each game and say, "Eight points are too many, I'm betting the underdog," or there are those who will pick up the schedule and compare the point spreads to their own numbers and say, "This team is favored by eight points, yet I only have them winning by three, so I'll bet the underdog." Simply stated, power ratings are numbers that show the projected disparity between teams in points from a mathematical perspective. While the point spread has to factor in public opinion, power ratings do not, and for that reason alone, should be more accurate than the point spread more times than not. The fact that most successful sports bettors will most definitely fall into the second category, tells you all you need to know whether it's worth your time and effort to keep power ratings for football and basketball. J.J. Bascus[ Reno N.V.] has determined himself as the best NFL & NBA sports handicapper in the country by his power rating considered the best 80% true. My friends nobody,I mean nobody has a power rating like his. A very important tool I use in betting the NFL& NBA. My record speaks for itself ****[all my threads and predictions are posted with SBR Sports Forum if you care to check]****.
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT

Disagree, point spread factors in sharps opinions more than the public. But the line is set for value regardless, definitely not for equal action. That's been a debunked myth for decades.

[ChalkyDog]

Oddsmakers vs Bookmakers.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Regardless of the wager, perception is the thing that bettors thrive on

Disagree completely. Lines are not set for equal action and bookies/Vegas gets crushed when the public teams win. They are set for value.

Usually just by seeing the same scenarios play out thousands of times over. If you combine your knowledge of what has happened before with your knowledge of how both teams will play, then you will start seeing the game play out in your head a lot. You then take your informed prediction of what will happen in the game and compare that to how you believe the public perceives that the game will play out. In some games, you will see a larger discrepancy than others; these gaps between what are and what should be are actually the equivalent to “getting value in a game.” If you predict (based on research, public perception, or sharp money coming in) that a number will move in your favor then you wait; if you think a number will move against your prediction then you go ahead and place the bet.”

[SeanL69]

Harry start using paragraphs

harry I can't see all that

I'd rather he stop using these fuckin hat tipping emotions. It's hard to focus on his content when he's got some stupid fuckin emotion all over the place. It takes away from what he is trying to say. It's like good insight written on yellow legal paper. It just hurts my eyes to read.

[SeanL69]

I understand you're the Hat. I get it. But Christ! put like 10 hats at the end of your post or something. All these fuckin hats is busting shit up.

[SeanL69]

IAM 67 YEARS OLD

Don't believe this. Mr. Hat is 22, banging random sorority chicks at the university of vassar.

[akphidelt]

Usually just by seeing the same scenarios play out thousands of times over. If you combine your knowledge of what has happened before with your knowledge of how both teams will play, then you will start seeing the game play out in your head a lot. You then take your informed prediction of what will happen in the game and compare that to how you believe the public perceives that the game will play out. In some games, you will see a larger discrepancy than others; these gaps between what are and what should be are actually the equivalent to “getting value in a game.” If you predict (based on research, public perception, or sharp money coming in) that a number will move in your favor then you wait; if you think a number will move against your prediction then you go ahead and place the bet.”

Oddsmakers don't believe in magic. It's all numbers and value. If they believe team X is a 4 point favorite that will be the line. Big books will adjust a little based on action, locals might adjust based on understanding of their clientele and getting more value for teams. But absolutely none of this has to do with getting even money on both sides. There's plenty of articles about Vegas books getting their shit cleaned because public big dollar teams were winning. It's a myth that they adjust lines for equal action.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[QUOTE=SeanL69;22092841]I understand you're the Hat. I get it. But Christ! put like 10 hats at the end of your post or something. All these fuckin hats is busting shit up.[/QUOTE]Don't believe this. Mr. Hat is 22, banging random sorority chicks at the university of vassar.QUOTESounds Like You Are Square [recreational bettors, who are known collectively in bookmaking circles as a “square"] Betting Sports Events .If you are that sharp in betting sports my friend, you should make very body around you look sharp,using constructive criticism of your posts & reply's. The fowl language you use posting Constructive Criticism tells me you have a incomprehensible behavior problem. In case you don.t know what incomprehensible behavior is which I doubt very much?[when a child throws a tantrum for absolutely no logical reason].

Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

[QUOTE=SeanL69;22092841]I understand you're the Hat. I get it. But Christ! put like 10 hats at the end of your post or something. All these fuckin hats is busting shit up.

Don't believe this. Mr. Hat is 22, banging random sorority chicks at the university of vassar.QUOTESounds Like You Are Square [recreational bettors, who are known collectively in bookmaking circles as a “square"] Betting Sports Events .If you are that sharp in betting sports my friend, you should make very body around you look sharp,using constructive criticism of your posts & reply's. The fowl language you use posting Constructive Criticism tells me you have a incomprehensible behavior problem. In case you don.t know what incomprehensible behavior is which I doubt very much?[when a child throws a tantrum for absolutely no logical reason].SBR members he needs a lot of help///????

Hårr¥THëHÄT

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Harry how old are you??

There is a fountain of youth: it is your mind, your talents, the creativity you bring to your life and the lives of people you like & Identify with. When you learn to tap this source, you will truly have defeated age."

Hårr¥THëHÄT