Would you hedge? Want some opinions here

[TheCentaur]

Youre looking at it wrong.

Wow, that's well put you've changed my mind

[smitch124]

and I guarantee you have no data to back that up for situations like this bet.

Well put it this way, if you make a bet that is +EV, and you make a bet that is -EV to hedge, its a loser long term. But, there are situations where guaranteeing a positive outcome is warranted. Even if your bet is the average coin flip, hedging that bet is just another another average coin flip and -EV unless you are betting without juice.

[thunderous]

I am strong believer of hedging so to me it didn't make sense that OP did not take points. It was a chance to make money on both sides while securing the original wager. And my thinking was he was asking opinion on how to hedge didn't know letting it ride was one of his options.

[jtoler]

If you're always hedging just play the games straight up.

With the juice he's paying Im guessing he didnt wanna do that. I understand the urge to let it ride, but I think anyone would want guaranteed money over the possibility of losing money.

[jtoler]

I'm sure data supports it, but I don't have actual data and I don't need it, it's mathematics

Imagine if you got even money on the flip of a coin, and you bet 1000 parlays of 3 heads in a row. If you hedged every time there were 2 heads in a row by hedge betting -110 on the next flip being tails, it will cost you money no question about it

The thing is when people have 3 games in a parlay they very more than likely are going to be getting + money in return if they win the parlay, anything over even money is guaranteed money by hedging.

[brooks85]

Well put it this way, if you make a bet that is +EV, and you make a bet that is -EV to hedge, its a loser long term. But, there are situations where guaranteeing a positive outcome is warranted. Even if your bet is the average coin flip, hedging that bet is just another another average coin flip and -EV unless you are betting without juice.

Well, yes if I were to put it that way then sure. However, I'm dealing with realities in which this poster could of had +200 side of both events. There is something I can guarantee you will happen 100% of the time if you can get +200 on both sides of an event. Anyone care to guess? lol

also to everyone with the whole "life changing money" angle. No one is winning "life changing" money gambling, if you are, then you need to set your sights a lot higher.

[daneblazer]

also to everyone with the whole "life changing money" angle. No one is winning "life changing" money gambling, if you are, then you need to set your sights a lot higher.

There was a guy who took Auburn to win the title for $100 at something ridiculous like 500/1. Problem is AU was such an underdog it was almost impossible to hedge. If AU was up against someone like Ohio State and was the favorite, I'd hedge the hell out of that.

[TheCentaur]

The thing is when people have 3 games in a parlay they very more than likely are going to be getting + money in return if they win the parlay, anything over even money is guaranteed money by hedging.

Guaranteed money doesn't mean more money in the long run. Unless this is the only bet the op is ever going to make the long run is important

[jtoler]

Guaranteed money doesn't mean more money in the long run. Unless this is the only bet the op is ever going to make the long run is important

Youre kidding right.

[jtoler]

There was a guy who took Auburn to win the title for $100 at something ridiculous like 500/1. Problem is AU was such an underdog it was almost impossible to hedge. If AU was up against someone like Ohio State and was the favorite, I'd hedge the hell out of that.

Are you serious, who cant make money off that before the game and alot of it.

[thunderous]

Cmon Centaur...who cares about long run? It was 10% of OP's roll(and yes I am using "was" cause this over).
All this capping is over rated anyway, its mostly luck so you gotta take profit on both sides.

[Plaza23]

If hedging keeps you from losing, then do it.
You can keep gambling, if you dont lose.

If you lose, you lose your roll and cant play anymore.

If you got a 3 teamer and are going to hedge the 3rd game no matter what, you'd be better off to just bet the first 2 games as a parlay. Thats simple math.

[daneblazer]

Looking like he shoulda hedged wtf Miami

[TheCentaur]

Ok u guys are fukking with me right?

[amolg24]

Definitely should have hedged considering the live odds I got. Didn't see the game going like this yet again...Heat were too soft the first half, but I wouldn't count them completely out just yet.

[TheCentaur]

Ok here is another example

Lets you are getting +110 on a fair coin flipping heads

Should you hedge with tails at -105? It guarantees money if you hedge

[jtoler]

Ok here is another example

Lets you are getting +110 on a fair coin flipping heads

Should you hedge with tails at -105? It guarantees money if you hedge

Thats extreme, he was getting 2-1 at least if he hedged I think.

[daneblazer]

Ok u guys are fukking with me right?

Theres a place for hedging, just not sure it's here. Seems like we're taking this in a vacuum and not considering there's actually risk in the first two legs too. All you do when you hedge is guarantee money at the expense of your EV. Like if you were on a game show and could have $45k or trade it in to have a 50/50 shot at 100k you're probably going to take the 45k...but if it's some bet for $4.50 and I have a 50/50 chance at $10 let it ride. There's times when you have great odds and can Take points and middle...those are also times I'd consider hedging.

[jtoler]

^^^ But he already won the first two legs no risk with hedging at that point. Who doesnt want arbitrage?

[TheCentaur]

Thats extreme, he was getting 2-1 at least if he hedged I think.

Ok I see that ur fuking with me. Very funny jtoler

[TheCentaur]

All you do when you hedge is guarantee money at the expense of your EV.

Exaaaaactly

[The Giant]

If people don't understand math, you can't discuss hedging situations with them, Centaur.

I read that once in a fortune cookie.

[jtoler]

If people don't understand math, you can't discuss hedging situations with them, Centaur.

I read that once in a fortune cookie.

Took lots of math in school, way too much, dont need to use it here, only thing is needed is common sense.

[TheCentaur]

Took lots of math in school, way too much, dont need to use it here

Yeah but how did you do in those classes?

[jtoler]

Yeah but how did you do in those classes?

A's mostly some B's.

[brooks85]

If people don't understand math, you can't discuss hedging situations with them, Centaur.

I read that once in a fortune cookie.

I understand more math than anyone in this thread. That is very likely.

You people are hilarious tho trying to debate me. I'll give you that much.

Regardless, guess who was right again?

Of course, no one should be surprised. All you people are doing is trying to change the circumstances so your argument will hold any water. Not going to work tho. This bet should have been hedged, assuming the bankroll is in the range I suspect, it's mathematically irresponsible to "let it ride."

[TheCentaur]

I'm going to take a wild guess here that none of the guys in this thread that think OP obviously should have hedged has ever been limited or banned by a book

[brooks85]

I'm going to take a wild guess here that none of the guys in this thread that think OP obviously should have hedged has ever been limited or banned by a book

0-2

get a better book then, I had to. No issues whatsoever hedging. Did it this morning as a matter of fact.

[KVB]

Its not about "if you like them to win" ride it out, have you not lost a bet before? Ok then, let the everyday people look at betting as gambling, you should be looking at it as investing. Always hedge.

The vigorish will eat you alive...even if you are really good.

[jtoler]

I'm going to take a wild guess here that none of the guys in this thread that think OP obviously should have hedged has ever been limited or banned by a book

Ive been limited but not for hedging, what does that have to do with what you wete talking about lol.

[TheCentaur]

Jtoler and brooks, if you were betting don't pass on the craps table for $100 and the point was 4, would you let someone buy your bet from you for $125? It's guaranteed plus money and you don't have to worry about the 4 being rolled

[jtoler]

The vigorish will eat you alive...even if you are really good.

More cluelessness, starting to think many here are shills for the books.

[brooks85]

Jtoler and brooks, if you were betting don't pass on the craps table for $100 and the point was 4, would you let someone buy your bet from you for $125? It's guaranteed plus money and you don't have to worry about the 4 being rolled

I don't even know how to plays craps nor have I ever, so don't have penetrating clue what you're talking about but I'm sure there is math to show your hypothetical should not be hedged. Congratulations.

Now back to reality. This should have been hedge. If you want to be a human and use opinions then don't hedge. If you like math, this bet should have been hedge based on his assumed bankroll.

I'm done posting in this thread before I get any dumber.

[The Giant]

Regardless, guess who was right again?

If you're arguing shortsightedness and being results oriented, you're right.

If you're arguing mathematics and long-term success, Centaur wins.

[jtoler]

Jtoler and brooks, if you were betting don't pass on the craps table for $100 and the point was 4, would you let someone buy your bet from you for $125? It's guaranteed plus money and you don't have to worry about the 4 being rolled

Again youre talking extreme measures when I said always hedge I didnt mean in every literal circumstance. The OP presented his parlays many clueless people said let it ride when it was obvious to hedge.