Game 2: Heat VS Spurs - What Is The Line Movement REALLY Telling You? Interesting

[TheMoneyShot]

So, game 2 basically opened at Spurs -4. It got as high as -5 at a few offshore books. I didn't notice it going to -5 in Vegas though.

Earlier yesterday line dropped to -4 Spurs offshore. With 2 websites reporting Heat ML 75% and 71%

Today it dropped to Spurs -3.5 at one offshore book. But mostly books reporting -4 and indicating Heat ML 68%. 76%

Yes, I could see Spurs winning Game 2. But, for the business of making money... you have to let Miami win here. Then again, A lot of people are hammering Heat ML. Mega payout for offshore books and Vegas. The other theory is... when this series goes back to Miami... no way will the Heat win both at home. Vegas isn't going to let you have a free for all hammering Heat ML's Game 3 and Game 4.

So... if the NBA wanted this series to extend longer... here.s my chart of the what if's?


If The Heat win tonight... 1-1 After 2 Games
I guarantee Spurs win at least 1 in Miami. So after 4 games 2-2. (Wager accordingly)

But... If Spurs do win tonight... 2-0 After 2 Games
Again, No way Miami wins back-to-back at Home. Spurs Lead 3-1 After 4 Games (Wager accordingly)

Here's a shocker for you... what if Spurs win tonight 2-0 After 2 Games.
The NBA knows people will hammer Miami Game 3 and Game 4. And let the Spurs Sweep them? Ultimate money for Vegas and Offshore. The story line isn't that far fetched. It could happen.

I'm always thinking different money making ways for the NBA. It's not about the logic of a basketball game. It's about the logic of entertainment.

Personally, I'm a little confused of what could happen tonight. I could see Miami winning game 2. I could see Spurs winning Game 2. I think it boils down to the accuracy of these websites of "public flow" near tip off.

What are you guys thinking?

[Big Bear]

well i wanted to take Miami and i thought the public would be on Spurs since Miami looked so bad in game 1.

but to my surprise public is actually on Miami so this throws me for a loop.

i dont know what to do now..

[t-wizzle]

Dude. You are really overthinking this thing.

[KRIT]

I agree with Wizzle, you are waaayyyyy overthinking things. Take it one game at a time, and the finals are not about "how vegas can make the most money."

[easyliving]

either that or its completely random and no one has any clue how it will play out

[Goat Milk]

How can the NBA let one team win a finals game over another. Lets just think about this. If Silver or some Vegas boss says, you let the Spurs win tonight, what happens if Spurs miss 3, turn it over, and Miami is on fire? Dude the NBA finals is not rigged and won't ever be. The NBA is under such a microscope nowadays that its impossible to rig something like the finals. You see a few controversial calls down the stretch of games here and there, but if it were to be rigged, why is the game so close in the finals seconds anyway?

I've written so many pieces on this site about this very topic that breaks down every single argument anyone could make about a finals series in today's day and age being rigged.

If it were about the logic of entertainment, why have their been sweeps in recent finals? I mean hell, the pistons nearly swept the ultimate lakers team in 04. Spurs swept Lebron in 07. Miami spanked OKC in 2012 and were a +250 underdog after they lost game one. Believe me, the books got crushed in that series. Crushed. Every sharp was unloading on Miami series while most of SBR was pounding the Thunder. Lakers destroyed Orlando in 09. None of those series went more than 5 games...... I can bring up so many sweeps too in previous rounds.

At the end of the day, these are the two best teams in the NBA. You can't predetermine what'll happen. It's impossible. You think the NBA cares more about making a few extra mill instead of letting some of the legends battle it out. The NBA is a multi billion dollar association dude.

This Vegas money is petty to them. They shit on these million dollar bets. And they're gonna get their ratings no matter what. If it goes 5 or 6 or 7. Ideal would be 7 for them, but they don't care enough to rig it, nor can they.

[sballen]

How can the NBA let one team win a finals game over another. Lets just think about this. If Silver or some Vegas boss says, you let the Spurs win tonight, what happens if Spurs miss 3, turn it over, and Miami is on fire? Dude the NBA finals is not rigged and won't ever be. The NBA is under such a microscope nowadays that its impossible to rig something like the finals. You see a few controversial calls down the stretch of games here and there, but if it were to be rigged, why is the game so close in the finals seconds anyway?

I've written so many pieces on this site about this very topic that breaks down every single argument anyone could make about a finals series in today's day and age being rigged.

If it were about the logic of entertainment, why have their been sweeps in recent finals? I mean hell, the pistons nearly swept the ultimate lakers team in 04. Spurs swept Lebron in 07. Miami spanked OKC in 2012 and were a +250 underdog after they lost game one. Believe me, the books got crushed in that series. Crushed. Every sharp was unloading on Miami series while most of SBR was pounding the Thunder. Lakers destroyed Orlando in 09. None of those series went more than 5 games...... I can bring up so many sweeps too in previous rounds.

At the end of the day, these are the two best teams in the NBA. You can't predetermine what'll happen. It's impossible. You think the NBA cares more about making a few extra mill instead of letting some of the legends battle it out. The NBA is a multi billion dollar association dude.

This Vegas money is petty to them. They shit on these million dollar bets. And they're gonna get their ratings no matter what. If it goes 5 or 6 or 7. Ideal would be 7 for them, but they don't care enough to rig it, nor can they.

**LOGIC ALERT!! LOGIC ALERT!!**

Frogdik, cuse, brainfart run!!

**LOGIC ALERT!! LOGIC ALERT!!**

[mikemca]

The only thing I'm pretty sure of is that Miami comes 110% tonight.Maybe SA is good enough to turn them back but I have to think Miami at + money is the play.Also expect a pissed off Lebron to have one of his I'm the best games.






They trailed Chicago 1-0 in the 2011 East finals and won 4-1.
They trailed Oklahoma City 1-0 in last year’s NBA Finals and won 4-1.
They trailed the Bulls again in this year’s second round and won 4-1. The rule even applies when facing other deficits, like when they were down 2-1 to Indiana last year before winning in six games, and when they trailed the Boston Celtics 3-2 in last year’s East finals before winning in seven.
That’s a combined record of 17-0 in those series after falling behind

Add their two series wins over the Spurs in last year’s Finals and the Indiana Pacers this postseason, when Miami once again fell behind 1-0, and that record jumps to 25-3.

[LT Profits]

The only thing I'm pretty sure of is that Miami comes 110% tonight.Maybe SA is good enough to turn them back but I have to think Miami at + money is the play.Also expect a pissed off Lebron to have one of his I'm the best games.






They trailed Chicago 1-0 in the 2011 East finals and won 4-1.
They trailed Oklahoma City 1-0 in last year’s NBA Finals and won 4-1.
They trailed the Bulls again in this year’s second round and won 4-1. The rule even applies when facing other deficits, like when they were down 2-1 to Indiana last year before winning in six games, and when they trailed the Boston Celtics 3-2 in last year’s East finals before winning in seven.
That’s a combined record of 17-0 in those series after falling behind

Add their two series wins over the Spurs in last year’s Finals and the Indiana Pacers this postseason, when Miami once again fell behind 1-0, and that record jumps to 25-3.

Long story short, Heat are 5-0 in Game 2s with LeBron when down 0-1 in a series.

However, I think that ends tonight. This is first time on LeBron era that Heat are probably not the better team.

[mikemca]

Long story short, Heat are 5-0 in Game 2s with LeBron when down 0-1 in a series.

However, I think that ends tonight. This is first time on LeBron era that Heat are probably not the better team.

Why? They were somewhat in control and up a few buckets before Lebron went out in Gm 1.

[jjgold]

forget heart in second games

this is the fukkin spurs man

[LT Profits]

Why? They were somewhat in control and up a few buckets before Lebron went out in Gm 1.

Mainly due to uncharacteristic 23 turnovers by Spurs, most of which were not forced. San Antonio just has too much depth, I see then edging away late. But I actually like the Under a lot better.

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

forget heart in second games

this is the fukkin spurs man

you got that right jjgold!

This is the fukkin spurs!

[JIBBBY]

Dude. You are really overthinking this thing.

Agreed...

Spurs will try and win at home again to protect home court, Heat will try and rebound after the loss in Game 1 and Lebron should be on it as well after his cramping ordeal in this game 2..

Better team wins this game tonight and takes control of the series, no theories can be applied.. It's sports and the finals aren't rigged...

[Pauulzcappin]

TheMoneyShot even if the spurs win tonight I can actually see the Heat winning both at home so your logic is kinda flawed.

[BadLuckSanta]

The longer your post on sbr is the more likely your play wins.

[KRIT]

When will people learn that Vegas is making money regardless of what happens. Vegas has nothing to do with the outcomes of these games.

[Pauulzcappin]

TheMoneyShot, Brock Landers is on Heat ML

[Dirty Sanchez]

We need to support jj....need to bring home the cash and support the resident pro

[BigDofBA]

This thread makes my head hurt and didn't answer the real questions.

Will the AC break again? How's Lebron's PMS?

[Dirty Sanchez]

Lots of Mushes have weighed in tonight...so you need to proceed with caution...with Landers, T-Jizz, and others out there with picks it's a virtual minefield of mushes

[vasilli07]

Heat good luck charm is in the house.

Miami is 23-2 in the Big 3 era in games James Capers officiates.

[Cuse0323]

All signs point to a Heat win. LeBron will come back strong and carry them, expect big threes from the role players as well and lock down D on the Spurs.

[labones00]

well i wanted to take Miami and i thought the public would be on Spurs since Miami looked so bad in game 1.

but to my surprise public is actually on Miami so this throws me for a loop.

i dont know what to do now..

Miami was completely in the game until the middle of the 4th quarter when Lebron cramped up. Hard to say Miami looked bad (excluding the last 5 mins or so)

[Pauulzcappin]

If late line movement means anything, Heat are probably winning tonight.

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Well Ladies and Gentleman of the jury[SBR members], I won 1st game with the Spurs -3 1/2 which was on previous thread SBR sports forum. I'am pressing my win on this 2nd game folks. Press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original bet after the press Win Or Lose... One Bet at time ...You can't win? if you don,t press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use. The Heat were in position to win Game 1 before James departed with cramps. The Spurs committed 23 turnovers that not only led to 28 Miami points but also prevented them from getting the ball more often to Duncan, who shot 9 of 10 from the field. The Spurs' win and cover in Game 1 marked their eighth straight at home, but had LeBron not cramped up, we may be having a different conversation today. James had a decent statistical Game 1 (a team-best 25 points with six rebounds, three assists and three steals), but scored only two fourth-quarter points on a driving layup that immediately preceded his removal from the game for good. The Heat broke down by fading from being close at 94-92 to being the victims of a rout. While it's tough to go against an 8-0 trend like that, here are a few things in the Heat's favor: they're 5-0 SU in Game 2s after losing the first game of the series, and they've followed their last 12 postseason losses with a win. I like the Heat bounce back and win Sunday's tilt. Heat +4 1/2 [Caesars Sports Book, Las Vegas Blvd]

Hårr¥THëHÄT

[4TH AND STUPID]

When will people learn that Vegas is making money regardless of what happens. Vegas has nothing to do with the outcomes of these games.

lmao. yes they do my flea bitten friend. see ya in a few years when you understand how it works. opening poster is clueless too though hes just shooting darts but he still has more of a clue than you

[TheMoneyShot]

I wonder what the series price will be now going into Game 3?

[Cuse0323]

All signs point to a Heat win. LeBron will come back strong and carry them, expect big threes from the role players as well and lock down D on the Spurs.

What a sharp that poster is

[Mikail]

LOL @ those who claim NBA isn't rigged. Oh and " poster "moneyshot" has the right idea.

[tony_come]

Game 2

Who won?

[justafish]

If you think the nba finals are rigged you need a Break from making plays. SkitZo conspiracy losing lunatic.

Take some time off Steve Coburn jr....

Or at least Play Miami at home Tuesday -4.

[LT Profits]

I wonder what the series price will be now going into Game 3?

Heat are favored now, since only reason Spurs were favored was because of home court. Miami around -140.