NC State belongs in the NCAA tourney

[SamDiamond]

They are 21-12 now after beating Syracuse, 11-9 in the ACC.

They have the ACC POY, and a First Team All-American in TJ Warren.

The resume may be lacking some--- but they pass the eyeball test.

I don't think you can name 67 better teams than the Wolfpack.

If they manage to win tomorrow and get to the ACC finals--- 22-12, 12-9-- come on now.

[daneblazer]

theyll get in

[Vegas39]

think they are in too

[thetrinity]

nc state really only competing against 36 for the at large spot, have to throw out 32 automatic qualifiers.

anyways they definitely pass the eye test but only a win at tennessee out of conference, might need 1 more win still, remember this team was far out before thursday. the win over syracuse doesnt look nearly as good as it would have a month ago.

[Capper1124]

Yes they do

[Da Manster!]

They sure as hell are more deserving than Iowa!...

[gummo]

This is a year where a 9 loss team will probably get a 2 seed so anything is possible.

[rm18]

No syracuse is whoreshit cannot score

[jtoler]

Wish they wouldnt even have conference tournaments, if you couldnt get it done in the regular season then too bad. Now a team like NC State will have Cuse on their resume when so teams like Cuse arnt as interested in actually winning their conference tourney so you arnt getting their best effort.

[jtoler]

They are 21-12 now after beating Syracuse, 11-9 in the ACC.

They have the ACC POY, and a First Team All-American in TJ Warren.

The resume may be lacking some--- but they pass the eyeball test.

I don't think you can name 67 better teams than the Wolfpack.

If they manage to win tomorrow and get to the ACC finals--- 22-12, 12-9-- come on now.

Other than the Cuse win today that resume is lacking alot. Won at Pitt and Tennessee, ok thats cool but besides that and with the ACC POY they havent done anything else, dont forget they lost to NC Central also.

[Cuse0323]

beat duke then they're in, don't leave it up to the committee. Warren is a beast, ready for the league

[The Madcap]

In general, State's overall resume is not that impressive. And I say that as a State grad.



However, if you look at State's resume in the context of some of the other teams that are supposedly "in" at this point (namely St. Joe's/GW) I really can't see how the Pack are that far behind.


This was a difficult season for NCSU.


-Lost starting center Jordan Vandenberg one game into the season impeding the team's growth and contributing to losses to Cincy/NCCU


-Lost in overtime to NCCU having been up 3 points with 11 seconds to play in regulation as NCCU went 41-45 from the free throw line in the most laughingly over-officiated game in history.

(Yes, you read that right, 41-45 from the FT line.)


-Lost a one point game @ Wake Forest on a last second shot where the Wake guy obviously traveled


-Lost a one point game @ Syracuse after an erroneous call in the final seconds that would have put state up two possessions with only 14 seconds to play (the same foul situation would then be called correctly in Syracuse's favor just two games later against Duke IN CAMERON) and that's on top of Syracuse somehow getting to the final minute of the game having had only 3 damned fouls whistled on them the entire 2nd half while State was called for 13 resulting in 17 FTAs for Cuse to 1 for State.


-Lost a one point game in overtime vs UNC after having a two point lead and the ball with only 35 seconds to play because TJ Warren "turned the ball over" after the officials somehow decided this wasn't a foul:






And before anyone goes accusing me of sour grapes, that's not the point I'm trying to make here. It's simply that things were so close to going the other way. State lost four different games they were winning with less than 15 seconds to play that could have just as well been wins had the officials simply decided to make one different call they very easily could have. (And probably should have) At worst these were 50/50 calls, and State didn't get any of them. Not a damned one. Not even at home. And had they gotten any of those calls they'd be a lock for the tourney right now instead simply on the bubble. And when 1-2 50/50 calls over the course of an entire season is all that's separating you from greatly exceeding expectations and having a painfully mediocre year it's a colossally frustrating letdown. We had our chances. It didn't happen. I don't see us getting in the NCAA's unless beat Duke, and even then, I'm not sure. For whatever reason the bracketologists all over the Atlantic 10 and a bunch of mediocre teams from the Pac-12/Big 10. How the hell they can justify giving the
A-10 more bids than the ACC after the 8th best team in the ACC (FSU) waxed the second best team in the A-10 (VCU) by 20 earlier in the year I have no idea.

[ReconSnarff]

Other than the Cuse win today that resume is lacking alot. Won at Pitt and Tennessee, ok thats cool but besides that and with the ACC POY they havent done anything else, dont forget they lost to NC Central also.

NC Central is not a bad loss in my opinion. They have made me a lot of money this year, including yesterday. They are going to the tourney.

[cankid]

big win for them

[Wilfred]

In general, State's overall resume is not that impressive. And I say that as a State grad.



However, if you look at State's resume in the context of some of the other teams that are supposedly "in" at this point (namely St. Joe's/GW) I really can't see how the Pack are that far behind.


This was a difficult season for NCSU.


-Lost starting center Jordan Vandenberg one game into the season impeding the team's growth and contributing to losses to Cincy/NCCU


-Lost in overtime to NCCU having been up 3 points with 11 seconds to play in regulation as NCCU went 41-45 from the free throw line in the most laughingly over-officiated game in history. (Yes, you read that right, 41-45. )


-Lost a one point game @ Wake Forest on a last second shot where the Wake guy obviously traveled


-Lost a one point game @ Syracuse after an erroneous call in the final seconds that would have put state up two possessions with only 14 seconds to play (the same foul situation would then be called correctly in Syracuse's favor just two games later against Duke IN CAMERON) and that's on top of Syracuse somehow getting to the final minute of the game having had only 3 damned fouls whistled on them the entire 2nd half while State was called for 13 resulting in 17 FTAs for Cuse to 1 for State.


-Lost a one point game in overtime vs UNC after having a two point lead and the ball with only 35 seconds to play because TJ Warren "turned the ball over" after the officials somehow decided this wasn't a foul:






And before anyone goes accusing me of sour grapes, that's not the point I'm trying to make here. It's simply that things were so close to going the other way. State lost four different games they were winning with less than 15 seconds to play that could have just as well been wins had the officials simply decided to make one different call they very easily could have. (And probably should have) At worst these were 50/50 calls, and State didn't get any of them. Not a damned one. Not even at home. And had they gotten any of those calls they'd be a lock for the tourney right now instead simply on the bubble. And when 1-2 50/50 calls over the course of an entire season is all that's separating you from greatly exceeding expectations or having a mediocre year it's a colossally frustrating letdown. We had our chances. It didn't happen. I don't see us getting in the NCAA's unless beat Duke, and even then, I'm not sure. For whatever reason the bracketologists all over the Atlantic 10 and a bunch of mediocre teams from the Pac-12/Big 10. How the hell they can justify giving the
A-10 more bids than the ACC after the 8th best team in the ACC (FSU) waxed the second best team in the A-10 (VCU) by 20 earlier in the year I have no idea.

The Atlantic 10 has more depth man. It is a great conference, and teams like Dayton, St Joes, and Umass 100% deserve to be in the tournament. The games in that conference are at an extremely high level. Not sure why one team losing would impact the rest, and you somehow fail to mention that VCU won @Virginia early in the year also, which I think more than offsets and neutral court tournament game after flying to Puerto Rico. But to the actual point I do think NC State should make it now, but they better make sure they don't get blown out tomorrow.

[jjgold]

Some of these smaller conferences really hurt the tournament because most would be first round knockouts where NC State would be a tough opponent even for a number one seed

[sweethook]

so what time does the book open ?

[The Madcap]

The Atlantic 10 has more depth man. It is a great conference, and teams like Dayton, St Joes, and Umass 100% deserve to be in the tournament. The games in that conference are at an extremely high level. Not sure why one team losing would impact the rest, and you somehow fail to mention that VCU won @Virginia early in the year also, which I think more than offsets and neutral court tournament game after flying to Puerto Rico. But to the actual point I do think NC State should make it now, but they better make sure they don't get blown out tomorrow.

The A-10 has more depth? Last time I looked UNC had more wins against the current Top 25 than the entire A-10 combined. Yeah, VCU won at UVA, but that was like the second week of the season, and whatever conference pride was earned with that gets washed right away by FSU taking down both VCU/UMASS. FSU is the #8 team in the ACC and beat the #2 team in the A-10, LaSalle is the #8 team in the A-10, you think LaSalle could beat Syracuse or Duke?

The A-10 does not have more depth, it has a bunch of mediocre teams with weak ass non-conf schedules who beat up on the sub RPI 200 cup cakes at the bottom of their conference compiling an inflated win total that's almost entirely hollow. You stick VCU or UMASS or GW in the ACC and they finish around where FSU/Maryland did, at best. And please, who the hell have St. Joe's and Dayton beat to deserve to get in?


St. Joe's only played three teams worth a damn outside the A-10 (Creighton/Nova/LSU) and lost all three. Dayton doesn't have one win against a current top 25 opponent other than conference buddy StLouy who themselves don't have a win against anyone in the top 25 because they didn't play anybody. Seriously, st. louis is the A-10's "best" team and their best non-conf win was against VANDERBILT. When you haven't beaten one damn team in the top 25 and your best non-conf win is against a 15-16 team that finished 10th in their conference, you have no business being in the Top 25. UMASS is the only team in that entire conference worth a damn and they only have one win against the top 25, and that's against New Mexico, another team in the Top 25 without one damn non-conf win against another team in the Top 25.



I just don't see how VCU's one win against UVA suddenly makes the A-10 a better league than the ACC when the ACC has as many non-conf wins against the current top 10 teams in the country as the A-10 has against the entire Top 25. It's a joke.

[Wilfred]

In terms of top 7 the A10 has more depth imo, but overall the ACC is better. We'll see, and in your view the A10 is mediocre so by taking that stance there would be no argument for Dayton or St. Joes. All I am going to predict though is that one week from today there will be more teams from the A10 that are left in the big dance than the ACC.

[mahncpa]

If NC State loses today, they will be 5-5 in their last 10, that is one of the factors that the NCAA tourney committee looks at. RPI of 59 and BPI of 66 puts them on top of the bubble. A win today and they are probably in. I think they lose by double digits today and I can't stand dook!!!!!!!!!!

[The Madcap]

In terms of top 7 the A10 has more depth imo, but overall the ACC is better. We'll see, and in your view the A10 is mediocre so by taking that stance there would be no argument for Dayton or St. Joes. All I am going to predict though is that one week from today there will be more teams from the A10 that are left in the big dance than the ACC.

That's entirely possible but has nothing to do with the point I'm trying to make which I guess I might not have explained all that well. I'm not evaluating how "good" these teams are in regards of potential or what they're capable of doing, I'm analyzing what they've done. Who did what, and who did more. From a quantitative standpoint, regardless of how good or bad either conference may be come tourney time, the ACC has simply out performed the A-10 so far this season. They have won more games against a wider variety of the top tier teams. They scheduled tough while the A-10 scheduled light. This isn't to say the A-10 teams aren't capable of winning some games in the NCAAs, (Butler/VCU/George Mason/Wichita State all reaching Final Fours the last decade have proven how much parity there is in D-I basketball), it's simply that in comparison to the ACC's body of work the A-10's record is weak. They didn't test themselves outside of conference to the degree the ACC did, and they did not win as many top level games. Objectively speaking, they are crap compared to the ACC. Yes they have some high win totals, but basically only against themselves. I'm not suggesting the A-10 teams can't compete, what I'm saying is that the A-10 teams didn't prove it. Not this season. Not the conference as a whole. VCU is clearly a lock to make the tourney, and I believe UMASS should be as well. But the rest don't have all that much to offer. You have to schedule good teams non-conference to earn your place. They didn't do that. And because of that we don't know if a Dayton/St Joe's win against VCU/UMASS is a significant achievement or in the end as meaningless as Wake beating Duke/UNC or BC beating Syracuse. We have nothing to judge the A-10 on. That's my point. The ACC's record is simply more substantial and deserving. The A-10 could very well be the "better" conference, but we don't know because they didn't play/win enough games against the rest of the best teams in the nation so that we could find out. The ACC did. You look at the ACC and they have wins all over the place against the top teams from all the other conferences. That's the body of work that should be rewarded with a bid. Rewarding the A-10 teams for their weak ass non-conf production is a completely illogical and unjust punishment to the teams who actually want to earn their keep and get better by playing better teams. It undermines the integrity of the game.

[Wilfred]

I don't think they scheduled that light at all. Keep in mind some of these were tourney games, but here's what some of the notable games of the non conference schedule for teams in the A10 that should make the tourney. And yes some of these games turned out to be against teams that are no good, but they don't know that when they schedule it. Also, it isn't so easy for them to schedule games without getting a balance of home games. Do you think Duke ever wants to take a trip to VCU or Umass? While you are right that they need to strengthen their schedule, I think its unrealistic for them to have to go play at these power teams Houses every year, where there is a clear advantage and they will probably lose. And get out of here with saying only VCU/UMass should be locks, George Washington and Saint Louis are pretty damn good if you ever have watched them. St. Joes and Dayton I'll give you some debate on but not the other 4. But you want NC State in? What have they really done so much better than those two?

Saint Louis: Wisconsin, Wichita State, Vanderbilt
VCU: Virginia, Florida State, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Boston College
George Washington: Miami, Marquette, Creighton, Rutgers, Maryland, Kansas State, Georgia
St. Joes: Creighton, LSU, Temple, Villanova
Umass: Boston College, LSU, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, BYU, Florida State, Providence
Dayton: Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Baylor, California, USC, Mississippi

[LT Profits]

NC State is out unless they win the tournament. And the ACC is only getting 5 teams in the tourney (unless NC State wins ACC Tourney), Atlantic 10 is get 6 teams in (Outside chance of 7 if St. Bonaventure wins tourney, but probably still 6 as Dayton would probably get knocked out).

[daneblazer]

Wolfpack beat Duke today

[The Madcap]

moot point now. If State gets an at large bid it would be a major upset/shock.

[jjgold]

Yes might hard now

They looked ok but not great

[The Madcap]

well i'll be dipped in shit

[jtoler]

You got your wish but no they dont belong.

[rm18]

Iouisville a 4
New mexico a 7
SMU out
Okie st. a 9 lol they lost 7 straight games no business in

All politics

[The Madcap]

You got your wish but no they dont belong.

Maybe so, maybe not. Who would you put in ahead of them? SMU? That's laughable bullshit. (UWGB has an interesting case I think though).



If one considers that State lost two close games earlier in the year with their starting center injured (Cincy/NCCU who were both tournament teams) and their SOS was 21st in the nation and so much higher ranked that SMU's (in the 300s! EGADS!) then I think it's hard to argue State's inclusion isn't legit. I think the main reason people are so upset with it is because all the stat geeks/the media have been ignoring State for weeks. But that's their fault, not NCSU's. If NCSU had gotten the love from the media they deserved as an actual bubble team instead of completely dismissed you wouldn't see this widespread shock. The pundits are just pissed for the committee picking State and making them all look bad for ignoring them the last month. It's hilarious to me that Lunardi is all bent out of shape because Maryland didn't get a bid when NC State did. NC State not only beat Maryland, but they beat Maryland WITHOUT TJ WARREN. And the the NIT didn't even pick Maryland. So who you gonna believe, some pencil necked dweeb like Joe Lunardi who hasn't played a game of organized basketball since 2nd grade recess when all the other kids in his class realized he sucked and stopped letting him play with them, or both the NCAA/NIT selection committees who told Maryland to get lost?



State has just as good a case as any of the first 5-6 bubble teams that got left out. Had the committee chair not been an ACC AD, maybe State doesn't get in, but I wouldn't say they don't belong, and that political help doesn't even begin to make up for all the bids the ACC has gotten hosed out of the last 10-15 years. Teams like UVA/VT/Maryland/Clemson/FSU have gotten totally pissed on by the selection committee over the years, so I hope you won't blame me if I don't feel the least bit sympathetic to the teams of other conferences that got left out this year. Especially SMU and their weak ass conference and their even weaker ass non-conf schedule.

[The Madcap]

Iouisville a 4
New mexico a 7
SMU out
Okie st. a 9 lol they lost 7 straight games no business in

All politics

If Ok State's got no business in neither does Iowa. Though I agree the L'ville/New Mexico seeding is a joke.




SMU is totally overrated. You're not getting an at large bid with a 300+ SOS. Virginia Tech couldn't do it with even a 200+ SOS even in the years they beat Duke/UNC. Only reason people are all upset about SMU is because they were ranked, but that ranking was totally inflated by a sympathetic media and a coach's poll over-respectful of Larry Brown.

[jtoler]

Alot of teams lost close games to good schools with players in and out, if you played that game you'd be all over the place with alot of teams, a loss is a loss. SMU first ranked team in 10 years not to get in, I agree its pretty close, but I think SMU's quality wins slightly edges NC State, if anything Id cut some A-10 teams out, too many bids from that conference.

[The Madcap]

I don't think they scheduled that light at all. Keep in mind some of these were tourney games, but here's what some of the notable games of the non conference schedule for teams in the A10 that should make the tourney. And yes some of these games turned out to be against teams that are no good, but they don't know that when they schedule it. Also, it isn't so easy for them to schedule games without getting a balance of home games. Do you think Duke ever wants to take a trip to VCU or Umass? While you are right that they need to strengthen their schedule, I think its unrealistic for them to have to go play at these power teams Houses every year, where there is a clear advantage and they will probably lose. And get out of here with saying only VCU/UMass should be locks, George Washington and Saint Louis are pretty damn good if you ever have watched them. St. Joes and Dayton I'll give you some debate on but not the other 4. But you want NC State in? What have they really done so much better than those two?

Saint Louis: Wisconsin (LOST), Wichita State (LOST), Vanderbilt
VCU: Virginia, Florida State (LOST), Georgetown(LOST) , Virginia Tech, Boston College
George Washington: Miami, Marquette(LOST) , Creighton, Rutgers (RUTGERS? SERIOUSLY? GTFO), Maryland, Kansas State(LOST), Georgia
St. Joes: Creighton(LOST), LSU(LOST), Temple (LOST), Villanova(LOST)
Umass: Boston College, LSU, Nebraska, New Mexico, Clemson, BYU, Florida State (LOST), Providence
Dayton: Georgia Tech, Gonzaga, Baylor (LOST), California, USC (LOST), Mississippi

I have watched St Louis play, a lot actually, was always a fan of Majerus (RIP) and became a fan as soon as they hired him and have enjoyed watching their development (plus they have one of the coolest mascots/nicknames ever, seriously how can you not like the Billikens?) but they just didn't play enough solid OOC games. As I said earlier, they only played two real tough non-conf opponents and lost both of them. Vandy sucks. And don't get me wrong, I understand your point about these teams being at somewhat of a scheduling disadvantage, but they still get invited to the big preseason neutral court tournaments (they just lose them) and having to play on the better team's court, well them's just breaks when you're the lower guy on the totem pole and haven't proven anything. You want to start getting those breaks you've got to do more than just get into the NCAA's, you've got to make some noise and then keep backing it up. Look at Wichita State, they didn't play anybody all year, but they got love all season because of their Final Four run last season. (Well, except with their bracket, christ almighty!!).


And it's not really the scheduling of the top 5-6 teams I was referring to as light anyway, it was the bottom half of the conference. That's what determines how valuable your conference record is. And while the top A-10 teams did schedule tough, because they barely won any of those tough games and the bottom half of the league didn't schedule hardly any tough games at all then it's hard to take their conference records all that seriously. At least in comparison to a league like the ACC. The ACC's weakest teams still play a very difficult non-conf schedule. What I'm saying is that because the top teams in the A-10 lost more often than not against top teams outside the A-10, and because the bottom A-10 teams didn't schedule anybody worth a damn outside the A-10 then the conference shouldn't just get 5-6 bids because the top 5-6 teams all beat each other 3-4 times. That makes no damn sense whatsoever. When the top teams in the A-10 start routinely beating the top teams from other conferences the way Duke/UNC/Syracuse do (or Arizona or Kansas etc) then the A-10 can get the same respect the ACC and the other power conferences do.

[The Madcap]

Alot of teams lost close games to good schools with players in and out, if you played that game you'd be all over the place with alot of teams, a loss is a loss. SMU first ranked team in 10 years not to get in, I agree its pretty close, but I think SMU's quality wins slightly edges NC State, if anything Id cut some A-10 teams out, too many bids from that conference.

Oh I totally would too. But I think State's got a better case than a lot of those A-10 teams too.




And again, SMU's ranking is inflated bs and it doesn't have jack shit to do with anything.




(The committee says it strongly looks at how injuries effect teams, that's the only reason I brought it up. NC State was a completely different team with their starting center than without, and I think the committee took note of that. And hey, I'm not trying to sit here and say State definitely deserved a bid over all the other bubble teams, I'm just telling you what the committee's parameters are and how State's resume met them. Whether or not the committee's parameters are the best/most valid way of evaluating who should or shouldn't be in is another story all together and one I don't care to even try and worry about)

[The Madcap]

Oh, and Wilfred, to answer your specific question about why I think State deserved to be in over some of the A-10 teams, just look at what State did vs George Washinton:



-GW's best nonconf wins were against Miami (who State beat), Maryland (who State not only beat, but beat without their best player), Georgia (who got clobbered @ Tennessee who State beat) and Creighton. So the only non-conf win GW has to put them ahead of State is Creighton, who's vastly overrated anyway.


-GW's best conference wins are VCU and UMASS (both of whom lost to FSU who lost to State) while State's best two conference wins are Syracuse/Pitt, which is clearly a more impressive combination.



-GW's worse conference loss came @ LaSalle who didn't beat anybody else worth a damn all year, while State's worse conference loss came @ Wake Forest who also beat both Duke/UNC.



Add all that up and State's resume is every bit as good, if not better, than GW's. So if GW is a "lock" how in the hell isn't State? And if GW is clearly more deserving of a bid than Dayton/St. Joe's, then wouldn't so to be State?