Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[NittanyLionsFan]

Sac fly here #forthefans

[SteelRain]

Few reasons, even though Cueto is in the top two in the Cy Young chase so far, Brews have hit Johnny in the past.
A-Ram croaks Cueto, taken him deep 4 times, dominates him. 13-39 overall.

Same with Gomez, the other Car-Go is .300 against him too, (well .294 to be exact)
Middle of the order can easily scratch out two in the first inning.

Remember, no pitcher has ever been lights out dominant for all their 33 starts, and look at what is going on this week, all the elites are getting raked, Waino the other day, Stras sucked again last night, most of the chalky chalk aces have been getting pretty much dinged up this week.
(even though I got cold a couple of weeks ago, I'm still very much in the game because I don't like minus signs in front of my wagers) and if you have been betting chalk recently right now you are pretty much hating life, but this is not so much a fade Cueto bet, just a wager that he and Gallardo both puke up some runs.

OK, I mentioned Brews can touch up Johnny Wonder some, Reds smack around Gallardo too.

Now, click the link and check out Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Ludwick, and the pesky SS Cozart

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/28650/yovani-gallardo

2* over 6.5, hard to fade Cueto, but the over (on paper) looks like a very good play here.
Expecting this number to move to 7 flat soon.

That's some excellent capping nashy. Keep up the good work.

[sunshine11]

The line was 7 most of the day. It's 5-2 now. It's a push!

[SteelRain]

Game went over cash that bad boy thanks nashy for the picks

[stevenash]

You're an asshole Sunshine , it was 6.5 at 5Dimes pretty much all day.

[akay47]

Nasher, I think there's a correlation between your lengthy write-ups and the wins bro. Keep up the good work, I check your thread daily and have been for a while. Let's make some MOULA bruhhh

[stevenash]

Terrific baseball day today

First off - Best Bet - Yanks/Rays OVER 9

Winds blowing out to center field 20 MPH
Pop ups might go for taters.

Both teams have big sticks.
Tampa almost always goes off in Yankee stadium, Longo and the rest, S-Rod, Loney, Myers..... they don't fear CC fatty Mcfatfat

Erik Bedard hurls for Tampa - he's a hamburger.
Expect Ellsbury to slap a couple of hits.
Soriano loves to face him too.

Expecting telephone type numbers, like a 9-7 game.

Moving on.

Two electric flame throwers face teams that can rake in a coma.

Darvish faces the Angels.
Pujols found his groove thing again, and Trout is a beast
Trout owns Yu, the rest don't

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32055/yu-darvish

No play, will pay close attention though.

Jose Fernandez vs. Dodger lineup
LAD can rake too.
No play, very interested in that game too.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/32567/jose-fernandez

Sleeper game of the day.
McHugh is a stud, strong lean Astros
Look at this kid so far.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/gamelog/_/id/32569/collin-mchugh

More in 30 minutes.

Gotta check my daily fantasy lineups for late scratches.
Nothing worse than having a starter puilled at the last second.

[tatddy]

Good thread Nasher enjoy the season.

[stevenash]

Good thread Nasher enjoy the season.

Always respect what have to say, I might bite your head off after a few Jacks and beers, but thank you, appreciate that.

[Madison]

I liked McHugh as well Nasher. I've buried a years worth of stud pitchers and we're only a month in.

BOL!

[stevenash]

Play of the evening and three other leans

Four games to consider

LA Dodgers -114 over Washington

J. Zimmerman v. Z. GreinkeDodger bats have owned the Nats starter Zimmerman in the past, tonight should be no different.
I can't ignore this data

Kemp 5 for 12 .417 2 home runs 7 RBi
Han-Ram 9 for 20 .450 1 home run 6 RBI
A-Gon 4 for 12 .333
Ethier and Crawford too, they are both over .300

These are not punch and Judy hitters, these are big boy names, with big boy sticks, that can and will hurt you.

National line up is decimated without Clown Boy Bryce Harper and 3B Ryan Zimmerman.

Jason Werth can't touch Grienke he's 1 for 6
Span is 9 for 31 .290 but 7 of those 9 are singles.
Everyone else has 10 or less AB's,
LaRoche is 4 for 5 should be noted.

-114 is where the line is sitting as I type this.
I'd go up to -125 on the better team (Dodgers) with the better lineup and the better starter (Greinke)

I'm considering +140 r/l too, since Washington is guaranteed a ninth inning on the road.

Chicago White Sox +112 over Chicago Cubs

J Quintana v. J Samardzija

Cross town rivalry
Most peoples knee jerk reaction is to think Cubs with Samardzija
Both are very talented lefties, Samardzija may have a little more talent,.
Samardzija is 0 and 3 with eye popping numbers and is in the top ten in ERA, however his last start was not sharp.
0 wins due to crappy run support, 11 runs total the Cubs have scored for him all season. (Phil Hughes used to get that every start so it seems when he was Yankee)
However Samardzija's last start wasn't sharp ,and he's facing a White Sox team that includes home run leader Jose Abreu, a torrid hot .;457 on the road Dayan Vicideo, and others.

Quintana is a strike out artist (8 per 9) lefty that has pretty much league average WH/IP and ERA.
However he's facing a team that is awful against LHP pitching.
Last season Cubbies hit .232. and had a God awful ,298 against all LHP

White Sox is the play with the better lineup, a good left handed starter against a team that struggles against LHP (and right I may add)

White Sox is my play at +112



KC Royals -118 over SD Padres

Stults v. Ventura

I have said it a million times in this thread that the KC Royals top to bottom are the best hitting team versus LHP
SD sends out a crappy lefty in Stults.

This is one of those inter league games where both teams rarely face each other, so both pitchers have no history against the opposing lineups.

Game is in NL park, KC loses the DH, I guess Butler sits and Hosmer plays first, and even though Hosmer is around .300, Butler is catching fire finally.
Doesn't matter, DH or no DH, KC should eat Stuls up.

Royals starter Yorlando Ventura who's been lights out all season.
31 K's/30 IP ERA of 1.50 and a WH/IP of 1.07, nobody saw that coming.

SD is a weak hitting team, I expect Ventura to remain dominant, conversely, I expect the Royals to light up the SD lefty,

Texas Rangers +105 over Colorado Rockies.

Perez v. Jordan Lyles.

All that glitters is not gold.
Rockie starter Jordan Lyles is off to a very nice start this season, giving up three runs in his last three start after giving up 8 in his first three starts.

Jordy is 3-0 after six starts so far this season, his ERA is a tidy 2.70 and his WH/IP is a gaudy 1.06
Take notice type numbers,
Doesn't change the fact that he's still a career hamburger.
Lifetime numbers are ERA of over 5 and a lifetime WH/IP of over 1,4
Hamburger helper numbers.

I wanted to know what he's doing right this year, figured it out.
1) He's got all sorts of offensive help now that he's with the Rockies.

2) I looked real close, his GB/FB ratio is way down (or up depending on how you look at it)
He's getting a lot more outs on the ground than in the air, more thant 1/2, and that's how you win in Denver.
Flyballs go for taters there, I think he or his coach (s) told him to win here (Denver) keep the ball on the ground, It's working so far.
He has not given up a dinger at home all year so far, however his K ratio is near rock bottom.

Here's the problem tonight, you are going to need some punch outs against a Ranger team that has underachived up until recently.
Make no mistake, Rangers are a dangerous hitting team (like the Rox)

Beltre is back, he's heating up, and feeling here is he's going to get his rocks (pardon the pun) this week out there where the air is rare.
Beltre is a bona fide masher, has been his whole career, and did I mention he's 6 for 17 lifetime versus Lyles .353.

Fat Prince thinks he's 25 years old again, and finally remembers how to hit.
People (like me) were saying "told you the Tigers robbed the Rangers on the Fielder/Kinsler deal"
Starterd the year under 200, people were writing his baseball career obit, is now heating up nicely,
Over .300 the last week, with a pair of roped doubles,
DId I mention Prince is 3 for 7 against Jordy Lyles too,

Uh-oh, Beltre is 100 percent heatlhy and hitting like Beltre, Prince has woken up, and they both have swatted Jordy in the past like a gnat.
This can't end well for Lyles.

Then there's Rios, who's been raking all season, .328
If Andrus gets out of his funk, Lyles won't last 5 innings tonight because this Ranger team is (like I said) heating up, which could be disasterous against a contact out type of pitcher that can not strike out 4 a game, I'm sensing there is going to be a shit load of contact by the Ranger hitters tonight.
Here's a small sample.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/31061/jordan-lyles

OK, Rockies can mash too.
Make no mistake about that, however Perez has not yeilded a homer all season.
And unlike Lyles, Marty can get the needed punch out.

On the season Perez is 4-1
ERA of 2.95 and WH/IP of 1.08 with zero homers yielded, pitching in a big stick league is impressive.
Unlike Lyle who has crappy career numbers, Perez's primary stats for his career are all under league average,

Forget the fact that Oakland destroyed him his last start, the three priors he went 9 full, 9 full, and 8 full.
What's the fluke? Three straight shutouts, or a terrific A's team hitting an off Perez after 3 straight gems?
I give Perez a free pass his last game.

I spent one hour on this game,
Know what it comes down to?

Perez will limit the damage the Rockies bats can do, Lyles will not.

Really like the +105, or +107 or whatever you can get now, as long as there is a + number in front of Perez I'm betting it.
I'm shopping for the best + number I can get.

3*
Texas

The other three are leans, and might plays.

[akay47]

Chalk mondays. Let's get it playa!

[stevenash]

^
Short faves and dogs tonight is the way it shakes out tonight, that's the way I see it.
You can't get hurt tonight, it's a very, very good baseball wagering nighttonight.
Something for everybody, hitting, pitching, great, great night for bases, and I am excited to see how all the games turn out.

[Big Bear]

Doesnt it worry you that LT Profits is on Dodgers?

[stevenash]

Doesnt it worry you that LT Profits is on Dodgers?

That and the price has been driven down 7 cents.
I'm off the Dodgers, no play, something ain't smelling right, price is too short.

[whtsox13]

Doesnt it worry you that LT Profits is on Dodgers?

What's his batting avg vs Zimmerman?

[stevenash]

What's his batting avg vs Zimmerman?

It's in the post, but Hollywood Dodgers own Zimmy
f'n croak him

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/30209/jordan-zimmermann

[iloseagain]

Four games to consider


Chicago White Sox +112 over Chicago Cubs

J Quintana v. J Samardzija

Cross town rivalry
Most peoples knee jerk reaction is to think Cubs with Samardzija
Both are very talented lefties, Samardzija may have a little more talent,.

Last season Cubbies hit .232. and had a God awful ,298 against all LHP

not trying to nitpick here, but samardzija is a righty and .298 against all LHP is certainly not awful, unless you were talking about OBP, which im kinda assuming you are, and yes thats awful. not sure if you did research based on samardzija being a righty or a lefty, but i wanted to make sure you were not searching for ChiSox #'s vs lefties when they are facing a righty.

Definitely like the texas pick though and ill be tailing you on that, BOL!

[BigWangDangALang]

It's in the post, but Hollywood Dodgers own Zimmy
f'n croak him

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...dan-zimmermann

He meant LT is not hitting against Zimmerman tonight so whatever he does plays no part in whether its a play for you or not.

[stevenash]

not trying to nitpick here, but samardzija is a righty and .298 against all LHP is certainly not awful, unless you were talking about OBP, which im kinda assuming you are, and yes thats awful. not sure if you did research based on samardzija being a righty or a lefty, but i wanted to make sure you were not searching for ChiSox #'s vs lefties when they are facing a righty.

Definitely like the texas pick though and ill be tailing you on that, BOL!

1)OBP, yes.
2)And actually both right and left.

Looking at 7 games and 70 sets of numbers, you know how it can get.

[billysink]

"have said it a million times in this thread that the KC Royals top to bottom are the best hitting team versus LHP"

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/31/sort/OPS/order/true

1 homer in 257 at bats. A slugging % of .296.

Nasher you could hit lefthanders better.

[stevenash]

Mets visit the Fish tonight, are they both pretenders? Surprise AL East contenders?
Fish need to keep winning at home, Mets need to make a statement, another series to watch.

[stevenash]

"have said it a million times in this thread that the KC Royals top to bottom are the best hitting team versus LHP"

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/stat/batting/split/31/sort/OPS/order/true

1 homer in 257 at bats. A slugging % of .296.

Nasher you could hit lefthanders better.

Billy, look at 2013, and throw Aoki in the mix.
Now what do you get?

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/reports/splits.asp?batterPitcher=Batter&sortValue=AB&startyear=2013&endYear=2013&month=&batterHand=&pitcherHand=L&homeAway=&dayNight=&position=&team=KCA&pitcherTeam=&situations=&inning=&battingOrder=&stadium=&asg=&bbt=&fpa=&fp=&starterReliever=&pitchCount=

The best LHP in the league, however KC got off to a slow start this year, it all will even out

[billysink]

Nasher why wold you use last years stats? 257at bats is more than enough to sample and they are beyond bad.

Way beyond bad.

[billysink]

Lyles game charts. Nothing but sinkers and fourseamers at Coors.

COL@MIA (4/2/14)	41.67	29.17	14.58	8.33	6.25
CHA@COL (4/7/14)	17.07	51.22	17.07	2.44	12.20
COL@SDN (4/14/14)	16.90	36.62	21.13	12.68	12.68
PHI@COL (4/19/14)	19.35	61.29	12.90	0.00	6.45
COL@LAN (4/25/14)	23.53	38.24	23.53	11.76	2.94
COL@ARI (4/30/14)	34.15	36.59	9.76	19.51	0.00

[stevenash]

Nasher why wold you use last years stats? 257at bats is more than enough to sample and they are beyond bad.

Way beyond bad.

I like to go back 3 years ideally, look at Sal Perez, Butler, etc.... last 3 years.
My thing is, the bigger sample size, the better.
I am not arguing they sucked out of the gate in 2014, doesn't change the fact they are proven mashers in the past vs. LHP
Butler going back the past three years for instance is 139 for 456 .305 with what? 23 bombs? Yeah, that makes him proven v. LHP
What's Gordon? 20 bombs in the past 3 years v. LHP hitting .280 avg
What about Sal Perez, he's over .350 going back the past 3 years, come on, just because they get out of the gate slow in 2014 they can't hit LHP.

You are better than that.

[stevenash]

Lyles game charts. Nothing but sinkers and fourseamers at Coors.

COL@MIA (4/2/14)	41.67	29.17	14.58	8.33	6.25
CHA@COL (4/7/14)	17.07	51.22	17.07	2.44	12.20
COL@SDN (4/14/14)	16.90	36.62	21.13	12.68	12.68
PHI@COL (4/19/14)	19.35	61.29	12.90	0.00	6.45
COL@LAN (4/25/14)	23.53	38.24	23.53	11.76	2.94
COL@ARI (4/30/14)	34.15	36.59	9.76	19.51	0.00

Contact out pitcher versus a contact hitting team, and Lyle is not a K artist, Lyle better hope his little buddies behind him can field the ball, he's going to get lit

[stevenash]

Lyles game charts. Nothing but sinkers and fourseamers at Coors.

COL@MIA (4/2/14)	41.67	29.17	14.58	8.33	6.25
CHA@COL (4/7/14)	17.07	51.22	17.07	2.44	12.20
COL@SDN (4/14/14)	16.90	36.62	21.13	12.68	12.68
PHI@COL (4/19/14)	19.35	61.29	12.90	0.00	6.45
COL@LAN (4/25/14)	23.53	38.24	23.53	11.76	2.94
COL@ARI (4/30/14)	34.15	36.59	9.76	19.51	0.00

Go to Brooksbaseball and check out Jose Abreu.
Meat head pitchers continue to give him cheese when the book says he's God awful with the off speed junk.
That's how you get that Cuban out, with yakkers.

[akay47]

Nash, what are your official plays? Just Texas bro? the rest are leans?

[stevenash]

Just Texas
even with Josh Wilson


Shin-Soo Choo LF
Josh Wilson 2B
Adrian Beltre 3B
Prince Fielder 1B
Alex Rios RF
Robinson Chirinos C
Leonys Martin CF
Elvis Andrus SS
(Martin Perez P)

[Big Bear]

Is Josh Wilson and Robinson Chirinos any good?

I see Perez gave up 8 earned runs last start... not sure Coors is the place you wanna be when looking to bounce back..

Rangers do have a huge bullpen advantage..

Lyles was dealin in his last start and bullpen cost him.

[iloseagain]

1)OBP, yes.
2)And actually both right and left.

Looking at 7 games and 70 sets of numbers, you know how it can get.

gotcha

[billysink]

Better than what? I am not here to be better or worse than anyone. As a matter of fact I am rarely here at all any more.

I am going to rest on my observation that after 257 at bats the Royals have been completely lost at the plate against lefties and their approach to hitting period is very poor this year. Where can you find a 3,4,5 hitter combination with 2 home runs on any other team? Or a team with 1 home run in 257 AB against lefties so far. Hopefully they wake up at some point but are an absolute no play against a lefty for most right now.

I would love to agree with you that last year meant something because as did you I spent some money on futures on this team.

Unfortunately your statement that they are one of the best teams at hitting lefties does not hold true for this year. Agreed that they were pretty good last year, dead on the league average in OPS and average power as a team but the game is not last year.

Stultz ain't much but if we want to be historical he is a play against on the road, has huge home split bias and an even bigger bias against lefties. He has four starts this year on the road and one at home against the Rockies who absolutely murder lefthanded pitching.

Risk no where near return for a play on KC. Shit even the books don't think anyone is gonna score in this one. Even at 6.5 the juice is loose.

Lot of good sinkerball hitters on the Rangers, Choo and Fielder are top notch against that pitch. Hopefully Perez can get the Rocks out.

Good luck with your plays the rest of the year.

[Big Bear]

Better than what? I am not here to be better or worse than anyone. As a matter of fact I am rarely here at all any more.

I am going to rest on my observation that after 257 at bats the Royals have been completely lost at the plate against lefties and their approach to hitting period is very poor this year. Where can you find a 3,4,5 hitter combination with 2 home runs on any other team? Or a team with 1 home run in 257 AB against lefties so far. Hopefully they wake up at some point but are an absolute no play against a lefty for most right now.

I would love to agree with you that last year meant something because as did you I spent some money on futures on this team.

Unfortunately your statement that they are one of the best teams at hitting lefties does not hold true for this year. Agreed that they were pretty good last year, dead on the league average in OPS and average power as a team but the game is not last year.

Stultz ain't much but if we want to be historical he is a play against on the road, has huge home split bias and an even bigger bias against lefties. He has four starts this year on the road and one at home against the Rockies who absolutely murder lefthanded pitching.

Risk no where near return for a play on KC. Shit even the books don't think anyone is gonna score in this one. Even at 6.5 the juice is loose.

Lot of good sinkerball hitters on the Rangers, Choo and Fielder are top notch against that pitch. Hopefully Perez can get the Rocks out.

Good luck with your plays the rest of the year.

good stuff man. Billy do you have any leans/plays tonight?

[stevenash]

Better than what? I am not here to be better or worse than anyone. As a matter of fact I am rarely here at all any more.

I am going to rest on my observation that after 257 at bats the Royals have been completely lost at the plate against lefties and their approach to hitting period is very poor this year. Where can you find a 3,4,5 hitter combination with 2 home runs on any other team? Or a team with 1 home run in 257 AB against lefties so far. Hopefully they wake up at some point but are an absolute no play against a lefty for most right now.

I would love to agree with you that last year meant something because as did you I spent some money on futures on this team.

Unfortunately your statement that they are one of the best teams at hitting lefties does not hold true for this year. Agreed that they were pretty good last year, dead on the league average in OPS and average power as a team but the game is not last year.

Stultz ain't much but if we want to be historical he is a play against on the road, has huge home split bias and an even bigger bias against lefties. He has four starts this year on the road and one at home against the Rockies who absolutely murder lefthanded pitching.

Risk no where near return for a play on KC. Shit even the books don't think anyone is gonna score in this one. Even at 6.5 the juice is loose.

Lot of good sinkerball hitters on the Rangers, Choo and Fielder are top notch against that pitch. Hopefully Perez can get the Rocks out.

Good luck with your plays the rest of the year.

Sinker, I always welcome with open arms what you have to say,because 9 times out of 10 I become a better baseball guy after reading you.
We can't agree on everything, but you are one sharp baseball guy.