Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[JonEJet]

stevenash.....as a fellow baseball junkie, i ran across this thread this morning and read just about all of it. So impressed. Thanks for putting your thoughts out there for us to read. Well done, and look forward to following you this season.

[JonEJet]

double post

[iifold]

No way.
Astros, Cubs, Whitesox, Mets.
4 worst teams in MLB.
I think the Marlins improve this year.

Maybe one of the worst, but can be had at the best price...

[PAULYPOKER]

Last week Opie asked me to give him a fair assessment of his favorite team, the Texas Rangers.
Drinker wanted to know if I was going to do a thread this year, Smokey too and a few others.

OK fellas, here it is, I will post my plays here, I will post my thoughts here, I will post everything MLB in this thread, some of you said it was hard tracking down my spot plays because I don't always wager every day in MLB, you will find it here.

Play ball !

First Opie:
Four teams can win the AL West
Angels, Rangers, Seattle, and Oakland

Oakland will win the division in a neck and neck battle with Texas.


American League West is probably the most interesting out of all the divisions in baseball.
All five teams have flawes, and with the exception of the Houston Astros, who have less than
a one percent chance of winning that division, can win it.

The good about the Rangers:
Very scary one through five top of the order.
I love the Choo signing, he's a proven 20/20 guy, a guy who can lead off with a homer, which he has done
several times last season with the Reds, or get on with a single and steal second. Extremely high OBA, which
to me is the most important statistic, and plays a very good outfield.
The bad about Choo is he cannot hit lefties. Pretty much an automatic out against the better lefties.
Never could hit Liriano, never could hit Cliff Lee, or Kershaw, or David Price. Hell, he's 0 for 8 against Corbin.
But the good far outweighs the bad

I guess Washington bats Andrus second, he is what he is, .275/.345 no pop, terrific speed, and a steady glove.

Prince will hit third, at first I wasn't big on the Detroit deal, I like it a little better now, if Price stays healthy and doesn't break down,
will hit 30 home runs, drive in 100, with 40 home runs not out of the question. Plays a serviceable first base.

Beltre is my guy, he's a beast, behind Miggy, who will move to first the best third baseman in the American League,
you can argue Longoria, but for my money, give me Beltre.
Monster bat, good glove, tremendous work ethic, how can you not love Beltre?
Expect .300/.350 30-100 from Adrian

With Rios hitting fifth, you got another 20/20 guy. Capable of hitting 20 home runs, and can steal you 20 bags.
Will he? Don't know, but he can easily steal 20 if Washington let's him go.

That first five at the top of the order is one of the best in baseball.

Moreland is going to DH according to my sources, he's an OK bat, don't hate him, don't love him.

Not in love with Soto batting seventh, he could hit some when he was with the Cubs, but don't expect more than .240.
Same with Arencebia, he's got 20 home run pop, but no average, no OBA. Not in love with the catching platoon.

Which brings us to Jurickson Profar......
Some of you think he's the next big thing, I am not sold on Profar.
I am fully aware of his potential and all that, just not sold on him.
He's got pop for a middle infielder, and speed, not sure if he can hit prime time pitching.
Now he's got a bum shoulder, I would have preferred if Texas kept Kinsler, but that ship has sailed.
If that shoulder doesn't bother him all season, he should hit .250 10 homers, 10 steals.
If that shoulder keeps him out of the lineup, Texas is up shit's creek, good luck going to war with Adam Rosales at second base.
Rosales can't hit his weight, really, he's a .190 hitter.

Leonys Martin will hit ninth, don't like the guy's attitude, but he'll give you .260, with a little power.

Yu Darvish is a beast,
Not just a staff ace, a bonafide MLB ace.
Top five MLB starter.

Rest of the rotation is just OK

Holland is hurt
Alexi Ogundo - average starter
Matt Harrison - don't give me he's a former 18 game winner, he has issues and he's, just my opinion, overrated.
Tommy Hanson - his better days are gone
Martin Perez - He's a five earned runs given up in the third inning waiting to happen.

The four other potential starters are not very good.

Joe Nathan will be missed, but late game relievers aren't that bad.
Nafalfi Perez I kind of like and Tanner Sheppers has plenty of upside who I think will be a good one.

Bench is paper thin Opie.

Second place, will be a division contender all season, very real wild card chance.


AL East - Tampa (best pitching in that division)
AL Central - Detroit ( will not miss Prince and monster four man rotation)
AL West - Oakland (wide open division except for Houston) A's get nod because of pitching and balanced 1 though 9 lineup

NL East - Nationals (best piching in division, lineup solid
NL Central - Reds (Cards will miss Beltran, expecting big drop off from Molina as well)
NL West - Dodgers. Well duh, most complete team in baseball

Nice observations on the Rangers..

I would love to hear your thoughts on the Pirates!~

[Linkan]

Hey guys,

I'm new to the forum and to betting baseball, done some NHL in the past. I stumbled on this thread and read it from the start and im impressed by your work and effort nash, i will follow this thread closely!
Just curios about your results, unitwise, from past seasons?

Regards

[CappinTerp]

Good luck this season.!!

[stevenash]

Big Game James - KC +137 this afternoon

Until proven otherwise, this is the team (Kansas City) I will be backing often this year.

Shields, as his nickname suggests, is big game, big time.
Solid spring, forget the 4 and change ERA, the 0.89 WH/IP sticks out. He's primed, ready to go.
Coming off a rock solid 2013 campaign, 13 game winner, 1.24 WH/IP and 3.14 ERA in the hard hitting American League was outstanding.

Kansas City has made drastic improvement at the top of the order, adding Aoki and Infante, make no mistake, this is a lethal line up, and Moose at third base batting seventh is primed for a break out season too.

I'm fully aware of the Tigers starter Justin Verlander, he had surgery and he also had a nice spring, but his velocity is down, and he's getting older.

The entire Royal dugout, as a whole, is 91-322 (.283) lifetime versus JV, and even though Alex Gordon struggles, Sal Perez and Billy Butler crush Verlander.

I'm not going to lie, Miggy crushes Shields too, and even with the loss of Prince, Tigers still can mash, however, without Prince, the lineup is not as potent, Kansas City can rake with Detroit, Shields can match JV pitch for pitch, +137 is a very generous number here.

Big game James is the play here, plus they have the better bullpen.
KC 3* +137

[2daBank]

On kc as well, think the pen advantage the biggest thing for me. Gl this season mr nash..

[No coincidences]

On kc as well, think the pen advantage the biggest thing for me. Gl this season mr nash..

Like KC, but their rotation after Shields is ugly.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Trying to remember the last time, going into the season, that the Royals weren't the sexy pick. Hopefully they prove backers right this year--I've always liked and rooted for smaller market teams.

[BennyBigNuts]

Trying to remember the last time, going into the season, that the Royals weren't the sexy pick. Hopefully they prove backers right this year--I've always liked and rooted for smaller market teams.

LOL, I don't remember ever saying that to myself in the past.
They always suck and are supposed to suck.
Not this year though. Their time is coming.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

A lot of analysts and gamblers have thrown out the Royals as a darkhorse.

[stevenash]

A lot of analysts and gamblers have thrown out the Royals as a darkhorse.

Fine by me.
Best LHP bats in the majors, best BP in the league too.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Fine by me.
Best LHP bats in the majors, best BP in the league too.

I meant in year's past--not sure this year. A lot of #1 picks will do that I suppose.

[stevenash]

V-Mart with a solo dinger.
1-0 Bengals

[stevenash]

Hey guys,

I'm new to the forum and to betting baseball, done some NHL in the past. I stumbled on this thread and read it from the start and im impressed by your work and effort nash, i will follow this thread closely!
Just curios about your results, unitwise, from past seasons?

Regards

Crushed it in 2012, I was spitting out +180 winning dogs, like 5 times a week.
2013, about even, tiny profit, 2012 will never be duplicated, I can't imagine doing again what I did in 2012

[stevenash]

Perez with the stick.

1-1

[Smoke]

Nash any plays for today?

[stevenash]

Nash any plays for today?

Big game James, looking at Balty hard, might pull that trigger, Balty rakes Lester.

[Big Bear]

Jays and Mariners are 2 live dogs.

Brewers are going to fukkin tee off on Teheran.

[Smoke]

Big game James, looking at Balty hard, might pull that trigger, Balty rakes Lester.

Yea I'm already on royals too. Like balty too. Thx

[Big Bear]

Royals bullpen is good they should be able to hold on if Shields can get them thru 7

[stevenash]

Adding Baltimore Orioles +105 3*

Adding Baltimore +105 3*
Tillman over Lester
No time for writeup

[twestacott]

As a BoSox fan I am choosing to stay away from this one as I want to believe that Lester blossomed into a true ace last season but I also try to make it a policy to stay away from my favorite teams when emotions are involved like opening day.

[Madison]

Vs balty, Lester 14-0 in 18 starts 06-11. 1-3 in 7 starts since. Not sure I'd bet against him here but GL. He lost to them (and took me down me as well) in late Sept. I killed the start before with Bucholz and bet all my winnings on him. He was horrible. Afterward I found out his wife was in labor during the game. You can never have enough info.
And then we all saw his playoff starts.

[stevenash]

Vs balty, Lester 14-0 in 18 starts 06-11. 1-3 in 7 starts since. Not sure I'd bet against him here but GL. He lost to them (and took me down me as well) in late Sept. I killed the start before with Bucholz and bet all my winnings on him. He was horrible. Afterward I found out his wife was in labor during the game. You can never have enough info.
And then we all saw his playoff starts.

Nelson Cruz is the 'x' factor

BALTIMORE ORIOLES CAREER STATISTICS VS. JON LESTER
BATTER	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
David Adams	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.333	.000	.333
Nelson Cruz	22	10	2	1	2	4	2	3	.455	.500	.909	1.409
Chris Davis	24	3	2	0	1	4	2	7	.125	.192	.333	.526
J.J. Hardy	27	8	1	1	1	2	1	6	.296	.321	.519	.840
Adam Jones	53	16	3	0	0	5	8	21	.302	.393	.358	.752
Manny Machado	11	3	2	0	0	3	1	0	.273	.333	.455	.788
Nick Markakis	66	16	6	0	0	1	4	15	.242	.286	.333	.619
Steve Pearce	8	1	1	0	0	2	1	5	.125	.200	.250	.450
Nolan Reimold	12	4	1	0	0	0	3	1	.333	.467	.417	.883
Jemile Weeks	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	.000	.333	.000	.333
Matt Wieters	44	15	3	1	0	8	4	11	.341	.396	.455	.850
Delmon Young	31	6	0	0	0	3	3	7	.194	.250	.194	.444
Totals	304	82	21	3	4	32	31	79	.270	.336	.398	.734

Orioles
Lineup 3/31

Nick Markakis RF
J.J. Hardy SS
Adam Jones CF
Chris Davis 1B
Nelson Cruz LF
Matt Wieters C
Delmon Young DH
Ryan Flaherty 3B
Jonathan Schoop 2B
(Chris Tillman P)

[stevenash]

Lovely, Crow just f**ked up my fantasy win.
(Shields, starter)

[Madison]

Crazy numbers. Thanks, I didn't realize that.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Great stuff in here keep it up.

[stevenash]

Not quite the ending I wanted.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Shit happens. I had tigers but kc clearly the play.

[Madison]

Nelson Cruz is the 'x' factor ... LITERALLY!

Sox leave 12 on base.

[stevenash]

Pick the day Buck Showalter takes his jacket off, win valuable prizes.

OK, we split the day card 1-1, and we turn a profit.

This is what I mean when I say you'll go broke betting chalk.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Pick the day Buck Showalter takes his jacket off, win valuable prizes.

OK, we split the day card 1-1, and we turn a profit.

This is what I mean when I say you'll go broke betting chalk.

So do you never bet chalk? Or just rarely?

[stevenash]

So do you never bet chalk?

Up to -150 only, that's set in stone.
I'll parlay -180 faves, I'll take +110 on a run line on a -190 fave, will never lay more that 3:2