I went Beltre, Tulo, Pedroia, J-Upt.
Now I go four pitchers
Now I go four pitchers
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235322256-1 3/25/14 1:50am $200.00 $860.00 Pending 3/31/14 1:00pm Props Baseball 25343 Kansas City Royals win AL Central +430* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Field wins American League Central (Fixed Price) Comment -
Nasher's Play of the Day
We made three spring training plays, won all three.
YTD 3-0 + 610 6.1*
I'm going to start fresh for the regular season, 0-0 +0*
Most of you know by now I'm a spot play artist, I win some, I lose some, but I'm always in the game because I rarely lay more than 3:2. You are not going to get rich betting chalk in baseball, and you'll probably go broke.
I look for value in pick 'em type games, I look for value in short favorite type games, I look hard for dogs.
Like I said, if you lay three to win two all the time you have to win two out of three to show a profit, (using a flat 1* bet example, you win 2 at -150, you collect two hundred, lose 1, for -150, you are showing a 50 dollar profit) however, I don't care how good you are, you are not going to hit 67 percent of your plays.
You can turn a nice profit even by only winning 47 percent of your plays, just seek out the +140, +160 dogs.
They are out there, those dogs bark, but you have to look.
Only person I know who turns a profit, and it's not a big profit betting chalk is Benjamim Lee Eckstein, known as Dr. Chalk in some circles, but he's been pissing me off lately with his 'I'm trying to be hip attitude" and it's really quite cringe worthy. He also likes to cross zero on football teasers, and won't answer my e-mails (I have issues on crossing zero's in teasers) but I digress.
When betting baseball, now so more than ever, is you have to handicap bullpens too.
Especially in the first three weeks of the season where starters aren't stretched out yet and managers go to the 'pen for the last three innings.
Anybody who is over 40, (I'm a little over 40) remembers when starters went eight innings, threw 120 pitches, you did not have to worry about some gypsy reliever screwing your wager in the ninth, juicing the bases with walks then giving up the game winning two run single.
When I was a kid, Steve Carlton went 8 innings like every start, that was in the late 70's-1980.
All teams use a five man rotation, using a five man rotation, a stater who takes his turn every cycle will make 33 starts in a 162 game season, sometimes 34, but never more than 34, well very rarely.
Using 1974 as an example, most teams used 4 man rotations.
In 1974 there were nine staters alone that made 40 starts. (I don't have the time I am interested and will research that out later) I don't remember the last pitcher who made 40 starts in a season.
Any way, nine made 40 starts or more, get this 49 starters made 34 or more starts.
Last season, four staters made 34 or starts. No starter made 35.
Only one starters (Wainwright) completed what they started five times.
In 1974 44 different starters completed what they started ten or more times.
Fergie Jenkins had 29 complete games in 41 starts, Gaylord Perry 28 complete games in 37 starts.
When Gaylord Perry made a start, you were betting on Gaylord Perry.
You were not betting on Gaylord Perry starting and then hoping some gypsy reliver in the sixth inning coughs up the game for you. You knew what you were betting on in 1974, that is a starting going the route, this is why you did not have to pay attention to bullpens when hadicapping.
If you are going to bet a starter who's team has crappy relievers, consider the first five inning wager option.
This way, you are eliminating the bullpen let down.
I like the first five inning play myself when I can get even money, or even if I have to lay -120 but getting + .5 run. I will play that with a quality pitcher on the road, or a decent pitcher against a team that has suddendly stopped hitting in the past game or two. I also like the fact a tie after five innings on such a wager gets you a win.
OK, what have we learned so far?
a) Look for value in underdogs and picke 'em type games.
b) It's difficult to turn a profit betting baseball betting chalk only.
c) Handicap beullpens before betting a nine inning game, know who is and isn't available out of the pen.
If you don't like the bullpen on the team you are backing, but like the starter, consider the first five inning option.
Baseball is a great sport to successfully make money in, but you have to do the work, dart throwing will land you in the poor house. Research and homework will pay you off. Trust me, it will. A big part of why I say baseball can be a money maker is because there are so many different types of plays, not just who will win the game.
Totals for instance, pay attention to the weather factor, a sudden change of wind can influence how many total runs are scored.
Let's say the over night on the Tiger/Royal game is Detroit -155 o/u 8.5 runs.
At the time the opener is posted, say 10pm the day before the game, the weather is nice, with calm winds.
The weather could change in the late morning, and the winds that were calm are now gusting in at 25mph, keeping most fly balls in the park. You might want to take advantage of that and bet the under.
Then there is the team total wager, that's the bet you make if you think just one team in the game ill score more or less that a posted number. Pay attention to how a team has done in the past versus a certain pitcher. You can find vlaue there too if you do your homework.
Most of you by now know I place a premium on hitters past history versus a hitters past history when face to face. I have butted heads with a few many times in the past about how important this is when placing a bet.
I get up an hour early, or do the next days homework the night before crunching those numbers, now I have databases to go to, I maintain, and I will go to the grave saying a team with a line up that for instance has gone 100 for 300 overall against a certain pitcher in the past, with say 18 homers, will continue to crush that particular pitcher. I'm going to say it one more time DO THE HOMEWORK, DO THE MARH, baseball is a mother freaking marathon, it's a game of streaks.... which brings me to my next point.
Streaks, pay attention to them, there is truth to '3' theory.
As a rule, don't fade a team that is on a three game winning streak, more importantly don't back a team on a three or more game losing streak. When I was working for an 'office' in my younger days, we would get clients that bet games because 'they were due to win'
People! I have seen many a bankroll crippled because a certain team was due to win.
Baseball does not generate a fraction of money wagered as the NFL does, but the books, the office I worked in also, cleaned up in 1988 with the famous Oriole losing streak.
I, for one, love a good old fashioned losing streak, of course I root for the underdog, the little guy that knocks off the champ and all that rainbow and lollipop fluff, but I love a good old fashioned losing streak the way I love a 23 car pileup on the interstate, no, I don't root for death and destruction, I'm fascinated by it.
You sit there and say 'the Orioles can't possibly lose another one, can they?' and instead of wagering 'yes, they can' more people during that streak, believe it or not, bet on the Orioles to win, because they were due to win.
In 1987, Baltimore finished the season by losing 42 out of 56, which was ridiculous enough by itself, and that was alse the first time I ever heard the expression 'autofade', the Orioles were auto-fade material in August and September of 1987, they never ran out of ways to lose a game.
Then, during the offseason, they pretty much stood pat, and didn't really make any upgrades to the team.
Right then and there if you had half a brain knew pretty much the Orioles were not going to amount to much in 1988.
Opening day, 1988, Orioles get bludgeoned to death by the Brews, at home yet, in front of 55 thousand packed at the old Memorial Stadium, oh it was a thing of beauty, O's blew a bunt, they gave up a run from second base on an infield single, they hit two batters.......
And it continued, they lost the next two to the Brews, for a three game losing streak to start the year.But it doesn't end there, here is where the serious sports bettor gets on the Oriole auto-fade express, not bet Baltimore because they were due to win, which more people did than not. Oriole losing streak, now at 19, President Ronnie Reagan called Cal Ripken Sr. (manager at the time) to wish him luck before the game, Baltimore could not even win one for the Gipper, they lost that one, two more after that for a 21 game losing streak before winning.
Here's the point, respect the streak, do not neglect the streak.
There are hundreds of other wagering options I haven't even touched on, like who will win an upcoming series, but I am getting really long winded here.
Like I said earlier, baseball is a 162 game marathon, like teams, a regular baseball bettor will go on a heater 5 times during the season, and at least five coolers are to be expected, manage your money during those five coolers, you'll do fine, but trust me, it's a game of streaks, expect five losing stretches during the year.
Think about this next statement, and remember it.
Each and every of the thirty teams are going to win 60 games this season.
The Twins are going to win 60 games this year, the Astros are going to win sixty games this year, I guarantee it.
I am a spot player, I like to think I am a very solid spot player, key is targeting those spots, usually at a good + price, when and where those spots are they are going to win those sixty games, conversely, the Red Sox, the Tigers, the Cardinals, your elite teams are going to lose sixty games this season. I guarantee it. Target the spots where those elite teams are going to lose those sixty games, usually at a nice price on a fade.
Do that, you'll show a profit, the other 100 games, just be smart.
Be smart, don't chase, it's a marathon, press up on a heater, flat, basic 1* bets when on a cooler, be smart, do the math, do the work, don't throw darts. You can beat this game.
Baseball is a beautiful game. The best game ever invented.
I have a database, I also go to baseballcube.com, baseball-reference.com, fangraphs, as well as all the usual other sites out there, for fantasy, where there is money to be made also, but the juice is high, I go to sportsnetwork.com (TSN) rotoworld, rotowire, and others.
The resources are out there, take advantage of them.
I like to tell people I am a I/T operations analyst by trade, I am a statistic and numbers junkie, I love that stuff. If it makes me nerd boy, or geek boy, so be it, I am geek boy then, but it's who I am, it's what I do, but I can party with the best of them as well.
Am I cocky? Yeah, little bit, but as good as I think I am, there are always people better then I am, I am not that blind sighted not to know that. This is my thread, open to all, you want my opinion on anything baseball, I got one, I am a blowhard, I have an opinion for most anything, here's the thing about blowhards, when we are right, we look like geniuses, when we are wrong, we look like, well, blowhards.
I'll say it again, I fear thiss doesn't come out wrong, this is my thread, if you think I am wrong, or you know I am wrong, tell me, rule #1 tell me where I am wrong, show me where I am wrong, I will a) always listen, b) thank you.
If I do at times come across as the best there ever was, no I am not, I can be a tad cocky, and I can be a bad hot head at times too, I get that.
You have an opinion that is different than mine, you like the other side of a game that I am on, you can tell me, hey I am wrong too at times, tell me you are fading me, tell me with just a little reason as to why, it's all good, my thread, all is welcome, you can fade me, you can have fun with me, just be respectful, I take a lot of time to do this, I enjoy it is why. Be respectful of me, you'll get respect back from me twice as much, I have an ugly side that I don't like to put on display, OK?
Peace and let's have some fun and make some cash these next six months.
MY PLAY OF THE DAY:
San Diego Padres (Cashner) +100 over Los Angeles Dodgerts (Ryu)
Game time temperature: 78 degrees, clear, zero percent chance of percepitation.
Feeling here this is going to be a break out season for Andrew Cashner.
I liked what I saw when he came up for a cup of coffee with the Cubs in '11, showed a lot of poise and promise in '12 with the Pads in his first 'full' MLB season, while not stinking up the place, and last season, was rock solid.
Cashner's 2013 across the board numbers were rock solid.
10 game winner, outstanding 1.13 WH/IP, outstanding 3.09 ERA, gave up 50 percent less homeruns, like I said, a rock solid season that pretty much went unnoticed playing for a offensivly challenged Padre team, on the west coast where most of us are passed out from drinking all night or sleeping getting ready for work when he's on the mound. Only head scratcher is Cashner is a strikeout an inning guy whose K rate pretty much went from 9.0 per nine to 6.5 per nine, give or take.
Stellar FIP (for those of you who buy into that new fancy ERA stat) too.
For those unfamiliar, Cashner features a four seam fastball as his go to pitch, tops out around 98 mph, 95-92 mph being the norm, that's his feature pitch.
In his arsenal is also a sinker that he throws with a two seam fastball grip, that tops out around 96, averages 94mph, and a changeup. The four seamer, when on, is electric with nine inch average movement, and can reach 10.5"
Trajectory and Movement - from 03/30/2007 to 03/30/2014
I'm expecting elite status numbers this season out of Cashner, love everthing about the kid.Fourseam 2507 50.79% 96.57 -5.69 9.12 -2.12 6.12 Sinker 712 14.42% 94.88 -8.82 5.85 -2.00 6.06 Change 850 17.22% 85.82 -7.26 4.49 -1.91 6.30 Slider 704 14.26% 85.16 1.71 0.05 -2.15 6.30 Curve 163 3.30% 80.77 3.91 -3.30 -1.69 6.45
The Dodgers are starting Hyun-Jin Ryu tonight.
Left handed, had a solid 2013 himself.
14 game winner, good WH/IP 1.20, solid ERA 3.00, decent strike out ratio.
Like Cashner, Ryu's feature pitch is the four seamer, throws it with a lot less velocity than Cash, but with a little more movement.
Trajectory and Movement - from 03/30/2007 to 03/30/2014
Unlike Cashner, who I expect a big season from, and even though Ryu pitched very well in his five inning stint in Australia, I expect some regression.Fourseam 1808 54.33% 91.10 5.69 10.20 2.42 6.09 Change 752 22.60% 80.21 7.79 7.08 2.65 5.92 Slider 456 13.70% 82.36 -1.42 1.26 2.45 6.10 Curve 312 9.38% 72.50 -4.99 -7.07 2.26 6.17
There is virtually no history between Ryu and the SD lineup, so I can not include that in my handicapping, (gave up 8 hits in six innings and change in beating SD last season in his only start against them.
LA's 2014 dugout is only 19 for 78 (.228), against Cashner, but the selling point is only 5 of the 19 are extra base hits, and they are five doubles, which translates into an amazing .292 SLG pct against.
Player Year Team League Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO WP BK WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 Control K-Rating Efficiency vsPower Andrew Cashner 2013 San Diego National League MLB 10 9 3.09 31 26 1 1 2 0 175 151 68 60 12 47 128 5 0 1.13 7.77 0.62 2.42 6.58 47 59 84 76 Hyun-Jin Ryu 2013 LA Dodgers National League MLB 14 8 3.00 30 30 2 1 0 0 192 182 67 64 15 49 154 5 0 1.20 8.53 0.70 2.30 7.22 72 52 58 60
Cashner's ability to symie the Dodger bats in the past, plus the fact that SD was the best run scoring team last season v. LHP, http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/team/_/...t/31/league/nl hits LHP very well, coupled with the fact, Ryu has a bad toe, and I am not sure if the Australia trip has any effect on him.
I like the home team, in their home opener, on national TV to show they can play with the big boy Dodgers, at a very fair +100 for a home team in this spot.Comment -
You bet two units on all your plays?Comment -
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Cashner's truly dominant stretch at the end of last year from August 19 to season end is easily explained in this graph. Hopefully he stiicks to that usage chart. He has one of the heaviest sinkers in the game.
I will be watching Cashner closely and wait for the epiphany. He seems to fancy the 4 seamer early. Very interested in the chart from tonight's game.
No play.
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OK then, the resource I was using, (I had seven windows opened, I think it was Brooks's site) said 78, if not, then thanks for the correctionComment -
I had been hoping Ciriaco would be the backup here and it did work out that way. He can rake.Comment -
If you guys are planning on backing the Pads, which I might entertain, wait a bit. The public will hammer the Dodgers win or lose after CBB, NHL, and NBA.Comment -
Nash, no mention of the BP's in your analysis? BP's are important, but they're extra important early on in the season, as SP's nerves are going to be present for their first starts.
EDIT: lower pc's as well.Last edited by High3rEl3m3nt; 03-30-14, 02:31 PM.Comment -
Am I cocky? Yeah, little bit, but as good as I think I am, there are always people better then I am, I am not that blind sighted not to know that. This is my thread, open to all, you want my opinion on anything baseball, I got one, I am a blowhard, I have an opinion for most anything, here's the thing about blowhards, when we are right, we look like geniuses, when we are wrong, we look like, well, blowhards.
Never met a successful gambler yet who wasn't cocky and opionated. Just got to be careful that your eyes are open at all times as those characteristics can be detrimental as well. Especially when things aren't going well.
BOL!Comment -
Nash.. Im looking to put one last future in on KC win total OVER. I think I remember seeing that you like them also.
My two online books have 81.5 -115 and 82 -110.
My local is giving me 82 -125.
Obviously i would rather bet it with a local so I dont have to tie up over 1k for the whole summer..
What are your thoughts on those lines. Think there is any value left at all in 82 -125?Comment -
Nash hell of a call tonight, thought we were doomed after ryu got out of the 1st, but Seth Smith is one of the better pitchhitters in baseball....good call and keep it up, i will be following......Comment -
I'm a former college athlete and am going to be wagering on baseball for the first time this year. I was messing around looking at threads and forums for information and advice when I ended up here. I gotta admit I was completely engrossed reading your post and look forward to following you this year bud. Sports are my passion and it for sure looks like yours as well. BOL this year boys.Comment -
See a lot of ppl slept on the Royals and got bad lines.
I'm on them +700 at the Hilton to win that division.
Also bet them again at +650 the week after lol. Felt like I needed a little more on it even though the price got worse.
Lot of ppl have them on here, hopefully we all get a good sweat on this.
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Betting against the cubs and Edwin Jackson usually is a winning comboComment -
Keep it going Nasher! I hope you have a great year!
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