Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[stevenash]

very glad u got this thread running for bases season nasher ! , i will def. be keeping tabs.

altho i wonder, just like some others here- how soon will u crack and say ur done for good when u read a few negative comments on the internet ?

I actually thought of that.
If the trolls piss me off to the point where I turn to the vodka bottle, i'll make the thread 'pro only'

[opie1988]

I actually thought of that.
If the trolls piss me off to the point where I turn to the vodka bottle, i'll make the thread 'pro only'

Ain't nobody gonna fukk with nasher.

He's an untouchable. Like Rudy.

Let me know if anyone tries to fukk with you, nashy.

[billysink]

I actually thought of that.
If the trolls piss me off to the point where I turn to the vodka bottle, i'll make the thread 'pro only'

We will take care of the thread.

[opie1988]

We will take care of the thread.

Bang.

You got no worries, nashy.

[stevenash]

Dan Duffy is the wild card on that staff. I think we learn something about that kid this year one year now removed from Tommy John.

After coming up through the Royals system and being tagged as a cornerstone for the franchise for years to come, Mike Moustakashas struggled mightily. It's a key year for the young third baseman and it looks like some of his poor performance in 2013 may have been due to bad luck. His BABIP of .257 is a bit low considering his line drive rate of 19%, which should help him post a higher batting average in 2014. Despite the dip in batting average, he improved his contact rate by 4% to 82%.

He also swung at more pitches inside the zone and chased fewer pitches out of the zone. On Sunday, Moustakas launched two homeruns while going 2-for-3 with three RBIs. "Moose" is now hitting .556 on the spring and looks poised to take a big step forward offensively.Rotation Battle in KC

Kansas City has a battle brewing for the final spot in their rotation. Candidates include veterans Luke Hochevar and Wade Davis and top propsects Yordano Ventura and Danny Duffy. Luke Hochevar was outstanding out of the bullpen last year and has not had much success as a starter. For that reason, it's hard to believe the Royals would remove him from the bullpen when they have other options for the final spot.Wade Davis also had success pitching out of the bullpen late last year but struggled in his starts earlier in the year. Davis started for the Royals on Sunday and looked outstanding. In two innings, he stuck out three batters and gave up just one hit and one walk. He'll need to continue these performances to remain in the running for a rotation spot. A lot has been said about Yordano Ventura this spring and his stock is rising in drafts. In order to return value for his owners, he needs to lock down the fifth rotation spot. In five seasons in the minors, Ventura has struck out just under 10 batters per 9 innings with a 3.47 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. In his first major league game last year, he threw a 101.9 MPH fastball. Unfortunately, he has yet to develop successful secondary pitches so a great fastball will only go so far. Another issue is his somewhat small frame at 5'11'' and 180 pounds. For a power pitcher, he's certainly on the small size. Thanks to an underwhelming major league debut in 2011, followed by Tommy John surgery in 2012, Danny Duffy is being overlooked in a lot of drafts this year. Through 6 seasons in the minors, Duffy has a K/9 of 10.6 with a 2.88 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Now 20 months removed from surgery, Duffy believes he's ready to compete for the 5th starting job and is in the best shape since being drafted. Duffy was outstanding in five starts last year after returning from the injury, posting an ERA of 1.85 with 22 strikeouts in 24 innings. From a fantasy perspective, owners are hoping that Hochevar and Davis go to the bullpen to give Ventura or Duffy a chance to start

[billysink]

Ventura is not going to fool anyone third time through the order. His offspeed that he throws for strikes is only 6 or 7 mph slower, same plane and arm slot.

[stevenash]

Ventura is not going to fool anyone third time through the order. His offspeed that he throws for strikes is only 6 or 7 mph slower, same plane and arm slot.

3/3/2014: After two scoreless innings in which he allowed one hit and had one strikeout against the Cubs on Sunday, Ventura remains the favorite for the vacant fifth spot in the rotation, the Kansas City Star reports

[El Nino]

Greinke out for Australia. Dodgers want zero part of that series.

Corbin and Cahill to start for the Dbacks. It will basically be 2 home games for the Dbacks. Locals will be pissed that the Dodgers aren't sending their best pitchers and have openly talked in the media about disliking the trip. Plus, the Dbacks have signed a television contract in New Zealand.

[tatddy]

Opie and sink running security. Life continues.

[TheLock]

How long till some tool box posts, "baseball is boring NFL can't come soon enough lolz"?

I'm seriously considering not making a baseball wager until week #3 of the season.

[stevenash]

How long till some tool box posts, "baseball is boring NFL can't come soon enough lolz"?

I'm seriously considering not making a baseball wager until week #3 of the season.

The better handicapper wait until all the regular starters make three starts.
Makes sense, makes a lot of sense, but if I see something nice at a nice price, I'll take a plunge.

[stevenash]

Nashers Top Six Four Man Rotations

LA DODGERS
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu
Haren

NATIONALS
Strasberg
Gio Gonzalez
Zimmerman
Fister

CARDINALS
Wainwright
Shelby Miller
Wacha
Lance Lynn

TIGERS
Verlander
Scherzer
Sanchez
Porcello

REDS
Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Cingrani

RAYS
Price
Matt Moore
Alex Cobb
Chris Archer

Get the best team win over/under future, and consider betting any or all over.
You can get a pretty good number on the Rays, Reds too. Dodgers team total over under may be over inflated.

[El Nino]

Nasher, I know you like the prospects. You catch Archie Bradley's line last night? 3IP 6K's 1H 0ER. 12 to 6 curve that made CarGo & Cuddyer look foolish.

[rkelly110]

Hi boys. Just want to share what I did in bases last year and what's going on now in preseason.

Last year starting on opening day, I decided to keep track of the ML fav of the day using a minimum odd of -222.

From April to Sept. the ML fav went 139-63 69%. I hope it holds true this year.

So far this preseason, the ML fav is 5-1.

Just a FYI. If anyone gets in trouble with their bets in small ball, maybe fall back on the fav of the day. Worked for me.

[stevenash]

Nasher, I know you like the prospects. You catch Archie Bradley's line last night? 3IP 6K's 1H 0ER. 12 to 6 curve that made CarGo & Cuddyer look foolish.

Saw that, that Okie has a nasty arsenal.
Ya, Archie is high on everybody's list, mine too, and Bundy also.
Here's the thing, I think Archie starts the year in the minor, they signed Arroyo, I don't think he can bump McCarthy, would love to see him in Phoenix in April

[El Nino]

Saw that, that Okie has a nasty arsenal.
Ya, Archie is high on everybody's list, mine too, and Bundy also.
Here's the thing, I think Archie starts the year in the minor, they signed Arroyo, I don't think he can bump McCarthy, would love to see him in Phoenix in April

Yeah, local word is there is no need to rush him. He sounds motivated and I'm sure he gets his shot this season. Cahill or McCarthy will prob get injured at some point. Guy is getting high praise, looking forward to him.

[Big Bear]

LA DODGERS
Kershaw
Greinke
Ryu
Haren

NATIONALS
Strasberg
Gio Gonzalez
Zimmerman
Fister

CARDINALS
Wainwright
Shelby Miller
Wacha
Lance Lynn

TIGERS
Verlander
Scherzer
Sanchez
Porcello

REDS
Latos
Cueto
Bailey
Cingrani

RAYS
Price
Matt Moore
Alex Cobb
Chris Archer
Get the best team win over/under future, and consider betting any or all over.
You can get a pretty good number on the Rays, Reds too. Dodgers team total over under may be over inflated.

D-Backs
1.Corbin
2. Cahill
3. Arroyo
4. Miley

Royals
1.Shields
2.Vargas
3.Guthrie
4. Chen

Brewers
1.Gallardo
2. Lohse
3. Garza
4. Peralta

Blue Jays

1. Dickey
2. Buehrle
3. Morrow
4. Drabek (once he gets arm stretched out)

Mariners
1. King Felix
2.James Paxon
3.Haroki Iwakuma (once healthy)
4. Taijuan Walker (once healthy)


Orioles
1.Jimenez
2.Tillman
3.Chen
4. Gonzalez

all worth keeping an eye on

[Big Bear]

Yeah, local word is there is no need to rush him. He sounds motivated and I'm sure he gets his shot this season. Cahill or McCarthy will prob get injured at some point. Guy is getting high praise, looking forward to him.

What makes you think Cahill gets injured? He has no history of injuries. I think he bounces back and gets back to dealing like he did with the A's

McCarthy maybe...

[dlunc3]

D-Backs
1.Corbin
2. Cahill
3. Arroyo
4. Miley

Royals
1.Shields
2.Vargas
3.Guthrie
4. Chen

Brewers
1.Gallardo
2. Lohse
3. Garza
4. Peralta

Blue Jays

1. Dickey
2. Buehrle
3. Morrow
4. Drabek (once he gets arm stretched out)

Mariners
1. King Felix
2.James Paxon
3.Haroki Iwakuma (once healthy)
4. Taijuan Walker (once healthy)


Orioles
1.Jimenez
2.Tillman
3.Chen
4. Gonzalez

all worth keeping an eye on

gotta go philly over any on that list.. def gotta be top 10

[Big Bear]

gotta go philly over any on that list.. def gotta be top 10

If Cole Hamels is healthy definitely if we are going with top 3

Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
AJ Burnett

is as good as any 3 starting pitchers on the same team in baseball.


But do you really think Howie Kendrick is good enough to make them one of the best top 4 man rotations?

Phillies need to sign Ervin Santanna and Stephen Drew as insurance

[El Nino]

What makes you think Cahill gets injured? He has no history of injuries. I think he bounces back and gets back to dealing like he did with the A's

McCarthy maybe...

McCarthy was injured often last season, Cahill maybe not injury but skill set decline. Cahill lost a ton of weight last season I think it affected his game negatively. I'm pretty sure he only went more than 6 innings twice from June-Sep. Cahill missed all of July last season with a hip injury.

[Big Bear]

McCarthy was injured often last season, Cahill maybe not injury but skill set decline. Cahill lost a ton of weight last season I think it affected his game negatively. I'm pretty sure he only went more than 6 innings twice from June-Sep. Cahill missed all of July last season with a hip injury.

I think your D-Backs win the west this year. I will take a shot at 12 to 1 odds.

LA has too many egos and pre-mondonas and will underachieve. Matt Kemp already starting to bitch and he will fukk up team chemistry bc he is not a team player and he thinks he's alot better than he really is.

Puig and Ryu will both take a big step back and have sophmore slumps due to advanced scouting reports.


The Dodgers may still make the playoffs as a wild card but i dont see them winning the division.

[El Nino]

I think your D-Backs win the west this year. I will take a shot at 12 to 1 odds.

LA has too many egos and pre-mondonas and will underachieve. Matt Kemp already starting to bitch and he will fukk up team chemistry bc he is not a team player and he thinks he's alot better than he really is.

Puig and Ryu will both take a big step back and have sophmore slumps due to advanced scouting reports.


The Dodgers may still make the playoffs as a wild card but i dont see them winning the division.

Dodgers will win the division. Dbacks very dependent on Hill staying healthy and Miggy. If Miggy hits like he did last year and Trumbo is a K machine, the Dbacks could have the worst bottom of the lineup in the NL. Goldschmidt's clutchness cannot be repeated.

[stevenash]

Dodgers will win the division. Dbacks very dependent on Hill staying healthy and Miggy. If Miggy hits like he did last year and Trumbo is a K machine, the Dbacks could have the worst bottom of the lineup in the NL. Goldschmidt's clutchness cannot be repeated.

1- OF Parra: Servicable outfielder with some speed. Won't hurt you, but not a game changer leading off either. Expect .270/.330 12 steals.

2- 2B A. Hill: Vastly underrated. Very versatile. Nice #2 hitter. Can hit you double digit homeruns.

3- 1B Goldschmidt: Already established as one of the games elite power hitter. Bona fide masher. Steady glove. Expect .280/.380 32-105

4- C Montero: Power hitting catcher, can he handle a staff like the better catchers?

5- OF Trumbo: All or nothing at all power hitter. Can hit 25 + homers, will strikeout 150 + times. Won't hit more than .250

6- 3B Prado: The teams 'x' factor. Can play most positions. Like Hill, very underrated. Very good stick. 15-75 .290/.340 very real possiblity,

7- OF C. Ross: Journey man outfielder, no BA, no OBA, some pop. Snakes can't do better than Ross???

8- SS Gregorious: Bottom tier shortstop. Depending on who you talk to, there are 22 to 27 better starting SS's in the league. Enough said.

SP Corbin: Staff ace, on the cusp of being a major league ace. Expect 13 wins, 3.50 ERA 1.22 WHIP 7K/9IP ratio
SP Cahill: Decent arm, expect 11/12 wins, 4.05/1.40 too many walks.
SP Miley: Pretty good young arm. 12/13 wins 3.70/1.30 is what I expect
SP Arroyo: Knows how to pitch, makes every start, not a bad 4 starter, innings eater. Don't expect big numbers.

PEN: Putz/Reed: Dependable. Won't hurt you.

[Big Bear]

1- OF Parra: Servicable outfielder with some speed. Won't hurt you, but not a game changer leading off either. Expect .270/.330 12 steals.

2- 2B A. Hill: Vastly underrated. Very versatile. Nice #2 hitter. Can hit you double digit homeruns.

3- 1B Goldschmidt: Already established as one of the games elite power hitter. Bona fide masher. Steady glove. Expect .280/.380 32-105

4- C Montero: Power hitting catcher, can he handle a staff like the better catchers?

5- OF Trumbo: All or nothing at all power hitter. Can hit 25 + homers, will strikeout 150 + times. Won't hit more than .250

6- 3B Prado: The teams 'x' factor. Can play most positions. Like Hill, very underrated. Very good stick. 15-75 .290/.340 very real possiblity,

7- OF C. Ross: Journey man outfielder, no BA, no OBA, some pop. Snakes can't do better than Ross???

8- SS Gregorious: Bottom tier shortstop. Depending on who you talk to, there are 22 to 27 better starting SS's in the league. Enough said.

SP Corbin: Staff ace, on the cusp of being a major league ace. Expect 13 wins, 3.50 ERA 1.22 WHIP 7K/9IP ratio
SP Cahill: Decent arm, expect 11/12 wins, 4.05/1.40 too many walks.
SP Miley: Pretty good young arm. 12/13 wins 3.70/1.30 is what I expect
SP Arroyo: Knows how to pitch, makes every start, not a bad 4 starter, innings eater. Don't expect big numbers.

PEN: Putz/Reed: Dependable. Won't hurt you.

Gregorious will split time with top prospect Chris Owings.

Gregorious is very young and just broke into the league. He is great defensively and you will continue to see improvement at the plate.

AJ Pollock, Trumbo , and Parra are your 3 starting outfielders.

Cody Ross is clutch and a decent platoon player. Eric Chavez also good off the bench.

[El Nino]

Switch Prado and Montero in the order most likely. The way Prado drove in RBI's the 2nd half of the season, Montero has to earn the clean-up spot. As Bear said, Pollock is the starting CF. Defensively, the OF will be stout. Offensively, they will struggle.

[stevenash]

Colby Lewis- TEX- Lewis didn't have a good debut in his quest to come back from hip replacement surgery and join the Rangers' rotation. He lasted only 2/3 of an inning, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks that led to 2 runs. Not much was expected from this first outing and it wasn't produced. Due to injuries to other starters Texas has some starting openings. How Lewis develops over the rest of the spring will determine his role. He has a minor league deal so could get more seasoning if needed

Nick Tepesch- TEX- Tepesch needed just 34 pitches to get through 3 scoreless IP yesterday. As with most early spring outings it's way too early to project anything. Last season hitters got more comfortable with Tepesch the more they saw him. He had a .472 OPS against batters the first time through the order. It soared to 1.198 on the third trip. Looking at his FIPx of 3.82, HR/9 of 1.16 and home ERA of 5.52 last year you might think that Tepesch was victimized by an inordinate number of homers in Arlington. However, he only gave up 5 in 45.2 IP there and 7 in 47.1 IP on the road. It was bad luck that clobbered him at home, with a .347 BABIP. The overall HR/9 was greater than his minor league numbers so if last year was an aberration Tepesch could put up decent ERA. K/9 (7.35) and WHIP numbers if he nails down a spot in the rotation.

[Gordote]

Hey Nasher,

Love your writeup for Opie on the Rangers. I'm not a big poster, but when you start talking Rangers….well, I'm in.

I think you are spot on with most of your assessment of the lineup. I love the top 5 of the order, but HATE the bottom four more than I love the top 5. Moreland keeps proving that he can't handle a full workload at the plate. Soto/Arencibia platoon behind the plate makes me wish for Pierzynski back (Words I never thought I'd utter). Profar will never live up to the hype. I watch a ton of the AA Frisco Roughrider games and he never impressed me a ton there. Always felt to me like John Daniels was going to force this guy onto Wash and into the starting lineup no matter what.

My biggest concerns are the paper thin bench and the pitching staff. I'm not convinced that Neftali Feliz will ever recover, mentally, from his collapse in Game 6 of the World Series. Ranger fans can only hope and pray that Tanner Scheppers can step into that role, because I think he will be forced to very early on this season. Back end starters and long relief are highly suspect. No real innings eaters to take the pressure off of an already injury prone starting staff.

Just my thoughts, but I'm not in love with this team. I think that Oakland wins the division, but I don't think that Texas is going to stay close with them into August, unless JD works some magic at the deadline. I appreciate your analysis and the time you put in to this. Its rare that you get quality info/analysis on any forum, but you are one of the very few that I follow and pay attention to. Here's to a great season and a great thread. Can't wait till Opening Day!

Thanks Again,

Gordote

Colby Lewis- TEX- Lewis didn't have a good debut in his quest to come back from hip replacement surgery and join the Rangers' rotation. He lasted only 2/3 of an inning, giving up 2 hits and 2 walks that led to 2 runs. Not much was expected from this first outing and it wasn't produced. Due to injuries to other starters Texas has some starting openings. How Lewis develops over the rest of the spring will determine his role. He has a minor league deal so could get more seasoning if needed

Nick Tepesch- TEX- Tepesch needed just 34 pitches to get through 3 scoreless IP yesterday. As with most early spring outings it's way too early to project anything. Last season hitters got more comfortable with Tepesch the more they saw him. He had a .472 OPS against batters the first time through the order. It soared to 1.198 on the third trip. Looking at his FIPx of 3.82, HR/9 of 1.16 and home ERA of 5.52 last year you might think that Tepesch was victimized by an inordinate number of homers in Arlington. However, he only gave up 5 in 45.2 IP there and 7 in 47.1 IP on the road. It was bad luck that clobbered him at home, with a .347 BABIP. The overall HR/9 was greater than his minor league numbers so if last year was an aberration Tepesch could put up decent ERA. K/9 (7.35) and WHIP numbers if he nails down a spot in the rotation.

[Big Bear]

Nasher

out of
Dodgers, Nationals, and Cardinals

which of those teams do you think will score the most runs?

[Louisvillekid1]

Thread of summer already

[stevenash]

Nasher

out of
Dodgers, Nationals, and Cardinals

which of those teams do you think will score the most runs?

Nationals providing Werth and Clown Boy don't keep breaking down like they always do.

[Louisvillekid1]

If Cole Hamels is healthy definitely if we are going with top 3

Cliff Lee
Cole Hamels
AJ Burnett

is as good as any 3 starting pitchers on the same team in baseball.


But do you really think Howie Kendrick is good enough to make them one of the best top 4 man rotations?

Phillies need to sign Ervin Santanna and Stephen Drew as insurance

[El Nino]

I thought I was the only one who caught that. I just shook my head.

[stevenash]

Around the League
Patrick Corbin (SP-ARI)- The Diamondbacks announced earlier this week that Corbin will start the season opener for the club in Australia against the Dodgers on March 22nd. The 24 year-old left-hander had a strong 2013 campaign where he pitched to a 3.41 ERA (3.43 FIP and 3.48 xFIP) while recording strong peripherals (7.69 K/9 and 2.33 BB/9). While he does not have one great strength, Corbin generates ground balls (46.1 percent) and an above average amount of swinging strikes (10.1 percent). I wouldn't mind too much into his first and second half splits, since the final product is an accurate representation of what his numbers should have been over a full season. His .283 BABIP will see some regression in 2014, but I think he should pitch to an ERA between 3.50 and 3.75. However, his ADP position might be a littler higher than I would like it to be. With that said, he is a low risk SP option.

Andy Dirks (LF-DET)- The Tigers announced on Tuesday that Dirks, who was expected to be the Tigers starting left fielder to begin with season will undergo back surgery. Dirks is expected to miss the next twelve weeks, and that would put him on schedule to return just before the start of June. The 28 year-old hit nine home runs along with a .256/.323/.363 slash line in 438 plate appearances, and he did not have much value in standard leagues before this injury. It looks as if Don Kelly and Rajai Davis will split time in left field, but Davis could end up taking most of the time. He has the ability to steal 50 bases as a regular player, and his stock obviously rises in the wake of this injury. Dirks had limited upside to begin the year, and should be avoided this season.

Joe Saunders (SP-TEX)- According the Dallas Morning News, the Rangers are expected to sign Saunders sometime this week to a major league deal. The 32 year-old had his worst season in 2013 pitching for the Mariners. Saunders pitched to a 5.26 ERA despite pitching in Safeco Park in half of his starts. His 4.72 FIP and 4.23 xFIP indicate that Saunders did not pitch as poorly as his ERA would suggest, but he should still be avoided in most leagues. Saunders had a 14.5 percent HR/FB ratio last season, and he would probably struggle with the long ball pitching in Arlington. While a 51.4 percent ground ball rate represented a career high, Saunders saw his walk rate take a step back last year (3.00 BB/9). He will not pitch to an ERA above 5.00 again, but he does not have any reasonable value this season.

Starlin Castro (SS-CHC)- Castro suffered a strained hamstring on Sunday after, but the Cubs announced to the media on Tuesday that the MRI revealed a mild strain. The 23 year-old shortstop dealt with hamstring issues last spring, but he is only expected to miss the next week. Castro had one of the most disappointing seasons for any player last year hitting just .245/.284/.347 with ten home runs and nine stolen bases in 705 plate appearances. His .102 ISO was the lowest of his career, and his average was hurt by an increase in his strikeout percentage (18.3 percent). Castro was also hurt by a .290 BABIP, which was 23 points lower than his career BABIP (.323). This injury should not affect one's draft plans, but I am not betting on Castro reaching .300 again with underwhelming batted ball profile. His line drive rate has never been higher than 20 percent.

Jhoulys Chacin (SP-COL)- While Chacin is getting close to playing catch this week after dealing with a right shoulder strain, the Rockies are expecting the right-hander to miss the first two to three weeks of the season. Chacin had a nice season in 2013 pitching to a 3.47 ERA with an impressive 3.47 FIP and 3.97 xFIP. A 6.2 percent HR/FB ratio was able to help Chacin's overall numbers, but expect that number to be closer to his 9.4 percent career rate. His average fastball velocity has dropped in each of the last four seasons along with his strikeout rate. While Chacin posted a career best walk rate in 2013 (2.78 BB/9), but I would be surprised to see him have a walk rate lower than 3.00 BB/9 this season considering his career rate (3.73 BB/9). With a normal increase in his HR/FB, Chacin will probably have his ERA hover around 4.00

[Louisvillekid1]

berial tm drinker -POTM

how many wins will Howie Kendrick have you fukkin clown???