Advice needed for potential cash cow

[keel44]

I have looked over MLB over/unders for all the teams last year, and I have found without a doubt, that the results are streaky. If you were to "follow the last result" on a team, you would have some nice clusters of wins.

What is the best way to take advantage of these winning clusters?

The way I see it, you should risk about 10%-15% of your bankroll on every play. Whatever your bankroll is at the time. The more you win, the higher you risk. The more you lose, the less you risk.

If you were to win 6 in a row risking 15% of your bank each play, you would more than double your bankroll from the start of that string of 6.

I just thought I'd share my findings and ask for the best money management strategy for streaks.

[byronbb]

How do you know when the streak starts and ends? DO you have a time machine or a crystal ball?

[keel44]

You pick a team, and follow the last result. Let's say you choose the Yankees. If the Yankee game went over yesterday, you pick them to go over again today. You follow only the Yankees all year, or you could switch your team after a nice stretch of wins if you like.

[trytrytry]

stop whatever it is you are thinking here. its not a good plan.

[keel44]

"

[boeing power]

My advice is...

Get a big safe, you're gonna be rich.

[benjy]

I'm with TryTryTry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy

[keel44]

I know there are some strings of losses too, but the wins are more frequent and longer. If I could find a money management that will hold my own until I get that nice long run. I could make some nice money.

[Dirty Sanchez]

You pick a team, and follow the last result. Let's say you choose the Yankees. If the Yankee game went over yesterday, you pick them to go over again today. You follow only the Yankees all year, or you could switch your team after a nice stretch of wins if you like.

Vegas was built on guys like you...just sayin

[byronbb]

I know there are some strings of losses too, but the wins are more frequent and longer. If I could find a money management that will hold my own until I get that nice long run. I could make some nice money.

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online-betting-articles/04-2013/winning-streaks.aspx

[z-doggie]

Stick with 2-3 % bankroll per bet...then you won't have to reload if you hit a downswing

[keel44]

I'm with TryTryTry.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_sharpshooter_fallacy

I read this nice article and I found it does not pertain here.

I formed a hypothesis before looking at the data. My hypothesis was that a team's offensive production was streaky and I already know that baseball totals have a range of over/under between 7-10. I thought that maybe one teams output could be enough to go above or below a posted total always figuring in their opponents output to be at least average.

This sparked my interest when the general thought about the A's last year was they had good pitching with a below average offense in a pitcher's park. 1 of 2 things could happen: The results would trend under because the assumptions could be true and fall below the range of 7-10 runs (generally speaking). The results could also trend over because the assumptions could not be true all the time. Either way, I figured there would be a trend one way or the other.

[stikymess]

There is no magic system. This may run well at times but betting 10%-15% of your bankroll will not lead to anything good.

If you don't want to cap and bet blindly, you may just want to bet against the Astros or any usual bad team, and even at that 10%-15% is still not a good plan.

Best of luck to you.

[keel44]

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/online...g-streaks.aspx

I am not betting whether an event will happen or not, I am trying to formulate a money management strategy IF the event were to happen. I want to follow the last result in case of longer streaks. If these longer streaks do show up, I want to be primed to take full advantage.

I am using past data as a reference to what is possible. I looked at every team last year and all but a couple of teams showed that following the last result was more profitable than betting opposite of the last result.

[greenhippo]

My advice is...

Get a big safe, you're gonna be rich.

I second this post, but I suggest buying a bigger safe.

[benjy]

I think you are seeing patterns where there are none. That said, I encourage you to apply statistics to your theory.

If you are serious about money management read up on Kelly betting.

[keel44]

I don't know if I am right in this line of thinking, but I formed a hypothesis, then I checked past data, and I found my hypothesis to be confirmed. Confirmed by visual means, not mathematical satisfaction, not thousands of trials, but the evidence is clear as day. Clear enough to bet on anyway. A lot of people bet with more erroneous ideas than this.

A baseball team's over/under results are more streaky than not. That is my statement based on my observations of offensive productivity trending high and low. I checked some data and found that yes indeed, that is true more often than not.

I want a money management strategy that best takes advantage of streaky results. If the results are not streaky, I will lose my bankroll. It wouldn't be the first time.

[boeing power]

If the Yankees win 14-6 and the next day the total is 7.5 the game will go over 7.5 approximately 50% of the time.

I just saved you some time and a lot of money.

[keel44]

If the Yankees win 14-6 and the next day the total is 7.5 the game will go over 7.5 approximately 50% of the time.

I just saved you some time and a lot of money.

It looks like you will never have a bet then, right? I say take a stab at an angle, it just might pay off big. Give yourself enough stabs.

You see, the problem with most everybody is, they don't have an angle. They may think they do, but it is not specific enough. Look around at everyone's picks on this forum. They make generalizations for one game based on nothing, then turn around and make another assumption for another game. They are never consistent with formulating reasons for choosing a side.

[The Giant]

I have looked over MLB over/unders for all the teams last year, and I have found without a doubt, that the results are streaky. If you were to "follow the last result" on a team, you would have some nice clusters of wins.

What is the best way to take advantage of these winning clusters?

The way I see it, you should risk about 10%-15% of your bankroll on every play. Whatever your bankroll is at the time. The more you win, the higher you risk. The more you lose, the less you risk.

If you were to win 6 in a row risking 15% of your bank each play, you would more than double your bankroll from the start of that string of 6.

I just thought I'd share my findings and ask for the best money management strategy for streaks.

I don't understand any of this.

[boeing power]

It looks like you will never have a bet then, right? I say take a stab at an angle, it just might pay off big. Give yourself enough stabs.

You see, the problem with most everybody is, they don't have an angle. They may think they do, but it is not specific enough. Look around at everyone's picks on this forum. They make generalizations for one game based on nothing, then turn around and make another assumption for another game. They are never consistent with formulating reasons for choosing a side.

What I'm saying is that you can't blindly bet games and think you can win long term.

If you put in hours of work capping and researching and learning good situations you can win 53-54% long term if you are very bright and have great money management skills.

It takes years of hard work to be successful at this.

I am still working hard every day to achieve that goal.

[stikymess]

If the Yankees win 14-6 and the next day the total is 7.5 the game will go over 7.5 approximately 50% of the time.

I just saved you some time and a lot of money.

If fat ass Sabathia is pitching it goes over 60% of the time.


.

[boeing power]

If fat ass Sabathia is pitching it goes over 60% of the time.


.

Fatty slim now.

[stikymess]

Fatty slim now.

Nice, Gastric Bypass is a good thing.



.

[keel44]

I don't understand any of this.

You simply pick a baseball team and bet on the over/under based on that team's previous over/under result. You keep doing that all year or whenever you get the results you are looking for. The results you are looking for are nice clusters of wins.

I propose betting 15% of your current bankroll per bet....whatever your bankroll is at that time. You should be only betting on 1 team at a time so 15% total risk per day is not as high as it seems, but your bankroll will swing greatly in either direction. The idea is to reap the rewards of the upswing. This will happen when you get streaks of wins which means your baseball team has a string of overs or unders.

[The Giant]

You simply pick a baseball team and bet on the over/under based on that team's previous over/under result. You keep doing that all year or whenever you get the results you are looking for. The results you are looking for are nice clusters of wins.

I propose betting 15% of your current bankroll per bet....whatever your bankroll is at that time. You should be only betting on 1 team at a time so 15% total risk per day is not as high as it seems, but your bankroll will swing greatly in either direction. The idea is to reap the rewards of the upswing. This will happen when you get streaks of wins which means your baseball team has a string of overs or unders.

So, let's say I choose the Dodgers.

Their first game goes over. I put 15% of my bankroll on the second game over? Now, if that game goes under, I put 15% of my bankroll on the under in the third game? I just keep doing this forever?

[stikymess]

So, let's say I choose the Dodgers.

Their first game goes over. I put 15% of my bankroll on the second game over? Now, if that game goes under, I put 15% of my bankroll on the under in the third game? I just keep doing this forever?

Giant once you fill up the big safe from prior post you are done.



.

[boeing power]

So, let's say I choose the Dodgers.

Their first game goes over. I put 15% of my bankroll on the second game over? Now, if that game goes under, I put 15% of my bankroll on the under in the third game? I just keep doing this forever?

And shower with profits and high end call girls and cocaine.

[The Giant]

Giant once you fill up the big safe from prior post you are done.



.

The way I've been running lately all the money has been leaving the safe, not going in.

I'm looking for a surefire method to get it back.

I hate having found this thread and knowing I have to wait until April to cash in.

[The Giant]

And shower with profits and high end call girls and cocaine.

I'm two months away from living the dream.

[keel44]

So, let's say I choose the Dodgers.

Their first game goes over. I put 15% of my bankroll on the second game over? Now, if that game goes under, I put 15% of my bankroll on the under in the third game? I just keep doing this forever?

Here is an example from the Dodgers last year from Sept 15-24

Balance start is $100 assume all games -110

Sept. 14 OVER ...bet over
Sept. 15 risk $15 UNDER (loss) bankroll $85...bet under
Sept. 16 risk $12.75 UNDER (win) bankroll $96.59...bet under
Sept. 17 risk $14.49 OVER (loss) bankroll $82.10...bet over
Sept. 18 risk $12.31 OVER (win) bankroll $93.29...bet over
Sept. 19 risk $14.00 OVER (win) bankroll $106.01...bet over
Sept. 20 risk $15.90 UNDER (loss) bankroll $90.11...bet under
Sept. 21 risk $13.51 UNDER (win) bankroll $102.39...bet under
Sept. 22 risk $15.36 UNDER (win) bankroll $116.35...bet under
Sept. 24 risk $17.45 UNDER (win) bankroll $132.22

I have increased my bankroll over 30% with a modest streak of 4 unders in a row. In fact, the bankroll went from $90.11 to $132.22 with 3 straight wins.

The Dodgers had a few of these modest streaks last year. They had 12 different streaks of 4 or more. They were actually one of the modest teams of streaky results compared to some others.

[keel44]

I have confidence that I will double my bankroll at least twice this upcoming year. That sounds really good to me. I will start with $1000 and at some point during the year I will have $4000. I will have a thread and I hope people will jump on board.

[gryfyn1]

I have confidence that I will double my bankroll at least twice this upcoming year. That sounds really good to me. I will start with $1000 and at some point during the year I will have $4000. I will have a thread and I hope people will jump on board.

This won't work according to the numbers. You're saying that teams that win are more likely to win the following game and its just not common enough. Since 2010 teams are 5009-4812 following a win for a win% of 51. Even assuming the odds balance out that is still a losing number (but my guess is that wins are clustered more around good team carrying higher lines)

[keel44]

This won't work according to the numbers. You're saying that teams that win are more likely to win the following game and its just not common enough. Since 2010 teams are 5009-4812 following a win for a win% of 51. Even assuming the odds balance out that is still a losing number (but my guess is that wins are clustered more around good team carrying higher lines)

This is for over/unders. Remember, we are following the last result hoping for clusters of wins, not necessarily overall win percentage.

[greenhippo]

gryfyn is right if you're picking W/L and not totals. It'll be death of you if you're picking the favorites though. Astros swept the Angels last year on the road in a series, each line was -200+.

I run a martingale when it comes to 1st Inning No Score prop bets, wasn't able to do it for the entire season last year but here in March I'll be getting my spreadsheet ready for Day 1.