Guess I was wrong about where the SB line was headed.

[SBR_John]

Imagine that

Shocked to see 1.5's popping up. The SBR Sportsbook still has slightly more action on Denver at -3. The multiple consensus still shows a fairly heavy imbalance on Denver although it has closed some. (I doubt it closes any more at 1.5.)

Are the books leaning Seattle? Did the sharp money come in on Sea and that convinced them to take a side? Are the big books causing the imbalance to wipe out the small ones with a Denver win??(conspiracy theorists check in)

Bodog just moved to +3 -115 from +3 -120, Pinny, Greek at -1.5. I'm guessing Bdog has a balanced book on this one.

Books goona get nailed if Denver cruises?

[BIGDAY]

Books will need Denver.

[No coincidences]

I can't believe you've been offering Seattle at +220.

And why would the books get nailed if Denver cruises?

Your posting this fall/winter has confused me, John. For a sharp guy, you've really gone the square route this year.

[jjgold]

Denver will get hammered late
Weather favoring Manning

[BennyBigNuts]

Bodog is a horribly ran book that refuses to come off lines of 3.
They would rather be stubborn and take a beating on one side than move it.
I don't understand their reasoning other than just stupidity.

I am also shocked to see the line where it's at right now.
The BIG money is on Seattle right now for sure.
But the % of wagers are gonna be by far more on Denver, as they are the sexier pick.

90% of wagers from random ppl who haven't watched a game all year are just gonna bet "Peyton Manning".

[konck]

Line line is moving because of the weather not because of the public

[SBR_John]

I can't believe you've been offering Seattle at +220.

And why would the books get nailed if Denver cruises?

Your posting this fall/winter has confused me, John. For a sharp guy, you've really gone the square route this year.

I would agree but whoa Nelly... I had nothing to do with that Sea +220 line. I'm not involved in a lot of the specials these days. I've said already I'm not going to do much if anything on the side. I love the 1st half and game under and my props are leaning for a defensive game.

[pavyracer]

Big money is not the big factor here. Smart money will win this game with a chance that sharp money is also in line for a win. But as long as you are on the right side you have nothing to fear.

[No coincidences]

I would agree but whoa Nelly... I had nothing to do with that Sea +220 line. I'm not involved in a lot of the specials these days. I've said already I'm not going to do much if anything on the side. I love the 1st half and game under and my props are leaning for a defensive game.

You mean they can just post a +220 Seattle line without your approval? WTF?

I'm on Seattle and I agree in theory re: the under, but the total does have me a little concerned. How many Seattle games have offered a total of 47 or higher this season? My guess without looking would be none. I figured the total would be 44 or so.

[BennyBigNuts]

Big money is not the big factor here. Smart money will win this game with a chance that sharp money is also in line for a win. But as long as you are on the right side you have nothing to fear.

Games like these is why I hate betting football in the first place.
There is no sharp side when you think about it here. There isn't some edge you can find no one knows about.

Smart money woulda just been getting Denver at a pick, then taking Seattle when they went to +3 and buying the half point to 3.5.
But even if you landed that, I don't exactly know how that could even be considered "Smart", depending on the juice you laid on the wagers.

I just wanna be on the lucky side of a game like this.
I don't see any value on this game like last year when I had Ravens ML in this spot. Always going to be value in moneylines on bigger dogs, but there isn't one here pretty much.

Peyton is gonna win this game 55-60 times out of 100 IMO. I got Broncos for fun, nothing major.

Who you got PAver?

[Vitothecapper]

You mean they can just post a +220 Seattle line without your approval? WTF?

I'm on Seattle and I agree in theory re: the under, but the total does have me a little concerned. How many Seattle games have offered a total of 47 or higher this season? My guess without looking would be none. I figured the total would be 44 or so.

How many Bronco's totals have been offered at 47 ?????

[SBR_John]

Absolutely love the under 1st half at 24. Strange things could happen in the 2nd half with a team , forcing a pass, going on 4th, OT or whatever. But give me both of those defenses fresh and rested and I like my chances under in the 1st half.

[Big Bear]

Bodog is a horribly ran book that refuses to come off lines of 3.
They would rather be stubborn and take a beating on one side than move it.
I don't understand their reasoning other than just stupidity.

I am also shocked to see the line where it's at right now.
The BIG money is on Seattle right now for sure.
But the % of wagers are gonna be by far more on Denver, as they are the sexier pick.

90% of wagers from random ppl who haven't watched a game all year are just gonna bet "Peyton Manning".

i have to disagree with that 90% comment .

Especially if we are talking online bets...

random schmucks dont just open an online sports betting acount just for the super bowl.

gambling is very addictive usually once a man makes his first bet there is no turning back.

that being said i havent made a bet in a week and i dont even know if i will watch or bet this game.

i'm ready for MLB to get here...

[BennyBigNuts]

i have to disagree with that 90% comment .

Especially if we are talking online bets...

random schmucks dont just open an online sports betting acount just for the super bowl.

gambling is very addictive usually once a man makes his first bet there is no turning back.

that being said i havent made a bet in a week and i dont even know if i will watch or bet this game.

i'm ready for MLB to get here...

You didn't read it right BB, I'm talking about the millions of ppl who aren't degenerates that will still place a bet on this game, mostly in Vegas and with hometown books. Ppl aren't opening online accounts to make one wager on a Football game.

[jaytee20]

All week people said "I want +3". It never showed. So Seaadderal bettors now taking 2 1/2 etc.

[No coincidences]

How many Bronco's totals have been offered at 47 ?????

Touche'.

I'm still confused by John's comment re: the SBR +220 line. He had no say in a Super Bowl special?

[raydog]

Books will need Denver.

lolz... you misspelled seattle, big boy

[Sam Odom]

NC , Johnny Walker never was a 'sharp' with NFL

He used to be better than avg with NCAAFB - This year he was in a slump

[Big Bear]

true

[d2bets]

Imagine that

Shocked to see 1.5's popping up. The SBR Sportsbook still has slightly more action on Denver at -3. The multiple consensus still shows a fairly heavy imbalance on Denver although it has closed some. (I doubt it closes any more at 1.5.)

Are the books leaning Seattle? Did the sharp money come in on Sea and that convinced them to take a side? Are the big books causing the imbalance to wipe out the small ones with a Denver win??(conspiracy theorists check in)

Bodog just moved to +3 -115 from +3 -120, Pinny, Greek at -1.5. I'm guessing Bdog has a balanced book on this one.

Books goona get nailed if Denver cruises?

If SBR has taken more bets on Denver -3 that's only because Seattle bettors are instead taking the much more beneficial +220 rather than +3.

[sweethook]

games getting warm , totals are up a half but still -2.5 all around town

[raydog]

or perhaps the betpoints bettors are simply following the real money...little of which is on seattle in the grande scheme of things so far

[No coincidences]

Bottom line: no reason for the books to open this line at Denver +1, and by now, no reason for Denver not to have at least flirted with -3. The fact that the line is starting to swing back toward Seattle should tell you something.

Broncos should've opened at -3, or reached -3 at some point. They didn't and they didn't. Oddsmakers have to be pleased with all the Denver love.

[suicidekings]

Bottom line: no reason for the books to open this line at Denver +1, and by now, no reason for Denver not to have at least flirted with -3. The fact that the line is starting to swing back toward Seattle should tell you something.

Broncos should've opened at -3, or reached -3 at some point. They didn't and they didn't. Oddsmakers have to be pleased with all the Denver love.

I think the opening line and movement thus far says the books think this will be a close game. Not that they're baiting Denver money with a short line. I think this is one of those games where no matter how you break it down, you come out with a fairly even matchup and the books have taken the stance that they're not going to get beaten on a +3/3.5 + ML fave middle, which would be devastating if it hit.

Despite the imbalance in money & ticket count favouring Denver, I see this as the books just sitting on the fence, ready to let it play out with perhaps a slight lean to Seattle, but not a significant one. I still think it's crazy to bet this game for any significant amount of money.

[daddypoker23]

Bodog is a good book to look at to know what side is the "public side" is betting. The bigger limit the book takes and lower of the juice they charge (pinn) the more accurate line

[flyingillini]

Denver all the way

[smitch124]

Now supposed to be 88F at kickoff, too hot for Manning?

[Da Manster!]

Bottom line: no reason for the books to open this line at Denver +1, and by now, no reason for Denver not to have at least flirted with -3. The fact that the line is starting to swing back toward Seattle should tell you something.

Broncos should've opened at -3, or reached -3 at some point. They didn't and they didn't. Oddsmakers have to be pleased with all the Denver love.

So are you taking Seattle as well, No coin?!...I've been on Seattle since last week and I was telling the "Fly me" crew that I was waiting for the line to jump up to -3 just for the very reason that Bennybignuts mentioned...the peyton manning angle that non-degenerates and squares will be playing right up to kickoff...but hell, I play Seattle ML if I have or if the line starts to drop...Heritage and Betdsi still have the line at Denver (-2).

[Koldazzice]

books will 100% need seattle outright or denver or seattle to win big to kill teasers.....

My theory on the line movement is -

Jumped on the game early denver +1/PK knowing everyone and their mom would be on denver. Snagged seattle +3 at square shops like bovada but it sat at 2.5 for awhile at places that take decent limits... sharps getting a bit panic'd that it didn't hit 3 everywhere so they could get off denver and take their real position on the game which is seattle +3. So pro's took the 2.5 to at least have small middle opp
and get off of some of that denver money.

Keep in mind most syndicates also book bets, so by getting denver +1/pk doesn't mean that they like that side. They just know their customer and will have major money on denver coming in. So if they have major Denver money coming in they have the best number while giving denver -2.5 to their clients.

[No coincidences]

So are you taking Seattle as well, No coin?!...I've been on Seattle since last week and I was telling the "Fly me" crew that I was waiting for the line to jump up to -3 just for the very reason that Bennybignuts mentioned...the peyton manning angle that non-degenerates and squares will be playing right up to kickoff...but hell, I play Seattle ML if I have or if the line starts to drop...Heritage and Betdsi still have the line at Denver (-2).

I have Seattle +2 (+100) for 25 units ($500, which is a pretty large bet for me). I'm up very comfortably this year in the NFL, so I'm just playing around with my winnings.

[SBR_John]

I think the opening line and movement thus far says the books think this will be a close game. Not that they're baiting Denver money with a short line. I think this is one of those games where no matter how you break it down, you come out with a fairly even matchup and the books have taken the stance that they're not going to get beaten on a +3/3.5 + ML fave middle, which would be devastating if it hit.

Despite the imbalance in money & ticket count favouring Denver, I see this as the books just sitting on the fence, ready to let it play out with perhaps a slight lean to Seattle, but not a significant one. I still think it's crazy to bet this game for any significant amount of money.

Pretty much agree. The books seem fine with letting it play out with an imbalance on Denver with the -110 as their hedge. The teasers will all be on Sea so here we go.

[Swaggy P]

Sharp money is on Denver. Seattle went from favs to underdogs right away when the line opened.

Shit really isnt that complicated

[Scorpion]

sea by 10+

[Smoke]

Game will be decided by 4 or more points either team so it doesn't really matter

[brodie]

ill take whatever team has Decker, Thomas, Orange Julius, and Welker

Archie Manning could beat this Seattle team