2009 MLB Preview: San Francisco Giants
SF Giants should be better, but not playoff caliber yet
With the NL West down last year, the San Francisco Giants look to sneak to the top of the ranks in 2009. They've got the pitching, but where will they get the offense?
A funny thing – not necessarily ha-ha funny – has happened to the NL West since the 2007 season. For those that might have forgotten, the division boasted the top three win totals in the NL in ’07 with Arizona winning the regular season title at 90-72 and Colorado (90-73) taking the league’s Wild Card spot over San Diego (89-74) in the memorable one-game playoff at the end. The Giants were the only one of the five teams that season to not finish above .500.
Then came 2008 when only two teams, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, finished above .500, and not much above. Suddenly the division appears to be wide open and anyone’s game, including the Giants who enter 2009 on a four-season losing streak.
As we begin to get through the early Cactus and Grapefruit League games, there are a lot of people out there who think San Francisco can make a serious run on the NL West this year. I’m not one of them. I believe they will improve on their 72-90 mark from last season, which was an improvement of one win over 2007. But I don’t believe the division is as wide open as others believe it to be.
The Giants did make some changes to their roster and they have some good young stars in the making, especially on the mound. But they still lack much on the offensive side, and I don’t see that group exploding this season to make the difference. If and when Manny Ramirez lands in the laps of the Giants’ rivals down in LA, it will make the Dodgers even stronger favorites than they are already.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Might as well get the bad news out of the way first. The Giants ranked last in the majors in 2008 with 94 home runs, the only team in the bigs not to hit at least 100. They were 15th in the NL in runs scored (640), 15th in drawing walks (452), sported a woeful on-base mark of .321 and slugged at just a .382 clip, next to last in the NL and one of just four clubs to not reach the .400 level in the column.
And there one big addition to correct some of the offensive problems was…Edgar Renteria?
No knock on Renteria who has had a pretty fair career during his 13 big league seasons. He’s had his better seasons in the NL, so a return to the Senior Circuit could spark his numbers a bit from last year in Detroit. But adding him at this stage of his career isn’t going to make much of a dent in the impotent San Francisco offense.
This is one area that the Giants could have made a big move or two that could’ve meant being a middling team and one that really has a shot at making a run in the division. Though their outfield is pretty well set with Aaron Rowand in center flanked by Fred Lewis in left and Randy Winn in right, the addition of one of several big name free agents could’ve been huge. Adam Dunn really made sense for this club since he could’ve played first or the outfield.
The Rowand-Lewis-Winn trio is a nice one, and who knows?, maybe they’ll supply a little more pop in the order this season compared to the 32 homers they combined to hit last year. But if one of them goes out, will anyone really notice when they’re replaced with Dave Roberts or Nate Schierholtz, the primary candidates for OF backup at this time?
Bengie Molina is back behind the plate after leading the club with 16 round trippers in 2008. Molina has been remarkably consistent playing for the Angels, Blue Jays and Giants the past six seasons, hitting from 10-19 homers in each of those years and setting a new career-best last season with 95 RBI that also topped San Fran.
Last year’s Opening Day infield for the Giants was Rich Aurilia at first, Ray Durham at second, Jose Castillo at third and Brian Bocock at short in place of Omar Vizquel who was injured to open the campaign. It should be an entirely new foursome to open this season.
Renteria will be at shortstop and supposedly hit second in the order behind Winn. His double play partner at second will be decided in a spring battle between Kevin Frandsen, Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez. Frandsen is the favorite right now.
The eventual corner infielders will also come down to Spring Training competition. Pablo Sandoval is presently penciled in at third with Travis Ishikawa penciled at first, and Aurilia backing them both up. Ishikawa is off to a fast start in early spring action, but that can change faster than the weather this time of year. Both he and Sandoval figure to hit for more power than primary corner gloves John Bowker and Jose Castillo combined for in 2008 (16 HR).
PITCHING
The mound was the Giants’ strongpoint in 2008, thanks mainly to one Timothy LeRoy Lincecum. The NL Cy Young winner finished second in ERA (2.62), second in wins (18) and first in strikeouts, punching out 265 in his 227 innings of work that covered 33 starts. In games that Lincecum started, San Fran was 22-11; they were 50-79 the rest of the time.
As a staff, the Giants finished eighth in the NL with a 4.38 ERA, allowing the second-fewest home runs (147) and totaling the second-most strikeouts (1,240).
In Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two young studs to make 40% of their starts. Cain’s 8-14 mark on the season came with a 3.76 ERA as he fell victim to run support. San Francisco scored just 107 runs in his 34 starts (3.14 per game), scoring two runs or fewer in 14 of those outings.
Behind those two young right-handers is a pair of veteran southpaws. The Giants have to be kicking themselves now for ever bringing Barry Zito in from across the bay. In the 65 starts Zito has made for the Giants the past two seasons, San Francisco is 27-38. He got off to a 0-8 start on his ledger last season with the club dropping each of his first nine starts. Though he improved as the season went on, it wasn’t much of an improvement and the huge contract San Fran gave him appears now to be for nothing much more than a No. 4 starter in their rotation.
The other left-hander is Randy Johnson who was signed this past winter for mere pennies compared to what they’re giving Zito. No, the Big Unit is not the pitcher he was, but he remains a viable No. 3 arm in the rotation – Unless manager Bruce Bochy decides to slot him between the two right-handers Lincecum and Cain – and his presence in the clubhouse could mean a lot to the younger arms if for no other reason he will be fodder for the media to help deflect some of that pressure.
The fifth and final arm in the rotation should be a third left-hander as Jonathan Sanchez is being counted on there. Noah Lowry, assuming his health allows, could figure into the starting mix at some point in the season.
Down in the bullpen is former Beach Boy great Brian Wilson. Coming off…what’s that? Oh, really? Ok, I’ve just been informed that the San Francisco closer was never part of the old Beach Boys group. This Brian Wilson isn’t even from California, hailing from Londonderry, NH, of all places.
He did save 41 games last season, second most in the National League, and made the NL All-Star team. Those 41 saves also came with a 4.62 ERA and he blew six opportunities, three of them in the final month of the season when he appeared to wear down. As we’ve seen before, and as was the case for Wilson last year, a few very ugly outings cam really skew a closer’s ERA.
San Francisco signed two new relievers to serve as Wilson’s setup arms this year, bringing Bobby Howry in from the Cubs and left-hander Jeremy Affeldt in from the Reds. They may not be A+ upgrades, but they should be better than some of the 7th- and 8th-inning arms Bochy had to use in 2008.
Right-handers Keiichi Yabu and Sergio Romo also figure into the bullpen plans for now along with lefties Jack Taschner and Alex Hinshaw. There may only be room for one of those southpaws in the end.
SCHEDULE
The Giants have a nice schedule starting with a few extra home dates the first couple of months, all of their interleague play versus AL West clubs and just six series in the Eastern Time Zone. They will also have a chance to make a quick statement with the bulk of their early slate against NL West clubs.
The Giants ranged from a low of 71 wins to a high of 81 wins in my five simulations, averaging 77.0 through them all. Three of the simulations had then at 78, 79 and 81, and I like that number 78. Baseball Prospectus’ projections have them at 79.
With the betting odds still absent of season win totals at most offshore books, the futures market is currently left with division, leage and World Series odds. Over at 5Dimes the Giants are listed third in the NL West at +450 to win the division. The same book has priced San Fran +2500 to win the National League and +5500 to go all the way and shock the baseball world in the Series.
With the NL West down last year, the San Francisco Giants look to sneak to the top of the ranks in 2009. They've got the pitching, but where will they get the offense?
A funny thing – not necessarily ha-ha funny – has happened to the NL West since the 2007 season. For those that might have forgotten, the division boasted the top three win totals in the NL in ’07 with Arizona winning the regular season title at 90-72 and Colorado (90-73) taking the league’s Wild Card spot over San Diego (89-74) in the memorable one-game playoff at the end. The Giants were the only one of the five teams that season to not finish above .500.
Then came 2008 when only two teams, the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, finished above .500, and not much above. Suddenly the division appears to be wide open and anyone’s game, including the Giants who enter 2009 on a four-season losing streak.
As we begin to get through the early Cactus and Grapefruit League games, there are a lot of people out there who think San Francisco can make a serious run on the NL West this year. I’m not one of them. I believe they will improve on their 72-90 mark from last season, which was an improvement of one win over 2007. But I don’t believe the division is as wide open as others believe it to be.
The Giants did make some changes to their roster and they have some good young stars in the making, especially on the mound. But they still lack much on the offensive side, and I don’t see that group exploding this season to make the difference. If and when Manny Ramirez lands in the laps of the Giants’ rivals down in LA, it will make the Dodgers even stronger favorites than they are already.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Might as well get the bad news out of the way first. The Giants ranked last in the majors in 2008 with 94 home runs, the only team in the bigs not to hit at least 100. They were 15th in the NL in runs scored (640), 15th in drawing walks (452), sported a woeful on-base mark of .321 and slugged at just a .382 clip, next to last in the NL and one of just four clubs to not reach the .400 level in the column.
And there one big addition to correct some of the offensive problems was…Edgar Renteria?
No knock on Renteria who has had a pretty fair career during his 13 big league seasons. He’s had his better seasons in the NL, so a return to the Senior Circuit could spark his numbers a bit from last year in Detroit. But adding him at this stage of his career isn’t going to make much of a dent in the impotent San Francisco offense.
This is one area that the Giants could have made a big move or two that could’ve meant being a middling team and one that really has a shot at making a run in the division. Though their outfield is pretty well set with Aaron Rowand in center flanked by Fred Lewis in left and Randy Winn in right, the addition of one of several big name free agents could’ve been huge. Adam Dunn really made sense for this club since he could’ve played first or the outfield.
The Rowand-Lewis-Winn trio is a nice one, and who knows?, maybe they’ll supply a little more pop in the order this season compared to the 32 homers they combined to hit last year. But if one of them goes out, will anyone really notice when they’re replaced with Dave Roberts or Nate Schierholtz, the primary candidates for OF backup at this time?
Bengie Molina is back behind the plate after leading the club with 16 round trippers in 2008. Molina has been remarkably consistent playing for the Angels, Blue Jays and Giants the past six seasons, hitting from 10-19 homers in each of those years and setting a new career-best last season with 95 RBI that also topped San Fran.
Last year’s Opening Day infield for the Giants was Rich Aurilia at first, Ray Durham at second, Jose Castillo at third and Brian Bocock at short in place of Omar Vizquel who was injured to open the campaign. It should be an entirely new foursome to open this season.
Renteria will be at shortstop and supposedly hit second in the order behind Winn. His double play partner at second will be decided in a spring battle between Kevin Frandsen, Emmanuel Burriss and Eugenio Velez. Frandsen is the favorite right now.
The eventual corner infielders will also come down to Spring Training competition. Pablo Sandoval is presently penciled in at third with Travis Ishikawa penciled at first, and Aurilia backing them both up. Ishikawa is off to a fast start in early spring action, but that can change faster than the weather this time of year. Both he and Sandoval figure to hit for more power than primary corner gloves John Bowker and Jose Castillo combined for in 2008 (16 HR).
PITCHING
The mound was the Giants’ strongpoint in 2008, thanks mainly to one Timothy LeRoy Lincecum. The NL Cy Young winner finished second in ERA (2.62), second in wins (18) and first in strikeouts, punching out 265 in his 227 innings of work that covered 33 starts. In games that Lincecum started, San Fran was 22-11; they were 50-79 the rest of the time.
As a staff, the Giants finished eighth in the NL with a 4.38 ERA, allowing the second-fewest home runs (147) and totaling the second-most strikeouts (1,240).
In Lincecum and Matt Cain, the Giants have two young studs to make 40% of their starts. Cain’s 8-14 mark on the season came with a 3.76 ERA as he fell victim to run support. San Francisco scored just 107 runs in his 34 starts (3.14 per game), scoring two runs or fewer in 14 of those outings.
Behind those two young right-handers is a pair of veteran southpaws. The Giants have to be kicking themselves now for ever bringing Barry Zito in from across the bay. In the 65 starts Zito has made for the Giants the past two seasons, San Francisco is 27-38. He got off to a 0-8 start on his ledger last season with the club dropping each of his first nine starts. Though he improved as the season went on, it wasn’t much of an improvement and the huge contract San Fran gave him appears now to be for nothing much more than a No. 4 starter in their rotation.
The other left-hander is Randy Johnson who was signed this past winter for mere pennies compared to what they’re giving Zito. No, the Big Unit is not the pitcher he was, but he remains a viable No. 3 arm in the rotation – Unless manager Bruce Bochy decides to slot him between the two right-handers Lincecum and Cain – and his presence in the clubhouse could mean a lot to the younger arms if for no other reason he will be fodder for the media to help deflect some of that pressure.
The fifth and final arm in the rotation should be a third left-hander as Jonathan Sanchez is being counted on there. Noah Lowry, assuming his health allows, could figure into the starting mix at some point in the season.
Down in the bullpen is former Beach Boy great Brian Wilson. Coming off…what’s that? Oh, really? Ok, I’ve just been informed that the San Francisco closer was never part of the old Beach Boys group. This Brian Wilson isn’t even from California, hailing from Londonderry, NH, of all places.
He did save 41 games last season, second most in the National League, and made the NL All-Star team. Those 41 saves also came with a 4.62 ERA and he blew six opportunities, three of them in the final month of the season when he appeared to wear down. As we’ve seen before, and as was the case for Wilson last year, a few very ugly outings cam really skew a closer’s ERA.
San Francisco signed two new relievers to serve as Wilson’s setup arms this year, bringing Bobby Howry in from the Cubs and left-hander Jeremy Affeldt in from the Reds. They may not be A+ upgrades, but they should be better than some of the 7th- and 8th-inning arms Bochy had to use in 2008.
Right-handers Keiichi Yabu and Sergio Romo also figure into the bullpen plans for now along with lefties Jack Taschner and Alex Hinshaw. There may only be room for one of those southpaws in the end.
SCHEDULE
The Giants have a nice schedule starting with a few extra home dates the first couple of months, all of their interleague play versus AL West clubs and just six series in the Eastern Time Zone. They will also have a chance to make a quick statement with the bulk of their early slate against NL West clubs.
- 20 of first 23 vs NL West
- 27-22 (Home-Away) through May; 65-66 through August
- 4-2 (Home-Away) vs. Cubs, 3-6 vs. Brewers, 9-6 vs AL
The Giants ranged from a low of 71 wins to a high of 81 wins in my five simulations, averaging 77.0 through them all. Three of the simulations had then at 78, 79 and 81, and I like that number 78. Baseball Prospectus’ projections have them at 79.
With the betting odds still absent of season win totals at most offshore books, the futures market is currently left with division, leage and World Series odds. Over at 5Dimes the Giants are listed third in the NL West at +450 to win the division. The same book has priced San Fran +2500 to win the National League and +5500 to go all the way and shock the baseball world in the Series.