If you like the SEAHAWKS bet them on the ML now, don't wait (posted Mon, Jan 20)

[homie1975]

the 10 day weather forecast that comes out 10 days before the SB will show projected temps in the low 30s and action will come pouring in on SEATTLE,

i already locked in the 2nd leg of my two team teaser:

SEATTLE +8

leg one was Denver -.5 over the Pats

GL All

[homie1975]

current line widely available on 1/20 is DEN -2 so go ML don't take SEA +2

[BigdaddyQH]

Just who allowed you to make this wager? Name your book, because as you can see by the number of responses you are getting, NO ONE believes you.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i don't know pal. only thing i'm sure of that'll go down is the total. spread most likely will go to 3 or 3.5 denver by game time.

[Big Bear]

in my opinion its better to wait until you see the weather report...

If a snow storm or heavy rain rolls in I am taking Seattle.

If it's fairly nice weather i may have to go with the Broncos. Yesterday being a nice day in Denver really helped out Manning stay in his comfort zone.

[slacker00]

Just who allowed you to make this wager? Name your book, because as you can see by the number of responses you are getting, NO ONE believes you.

What are you talking about? SEA +3 and +120 ML is widely available. It already feels like the hype is DEN, might climb.

[homie1975]

Just who allowed you to make this wager? Name your book, because as you can see by the number of responses you are getting, NO ONE believes you.

5Dimes allows open teasers.

i am small time so my local lets let me do them.

i know of others who do them, this is not uncommon it's 2014 for crying out lout

[jjgold]

30's does not favor Seattle

Frigid temps and rain/snow would favor Seattle

[homie1975]

Mr. Gold I disagree I think the 30's will hurt Denver and their more wide open offense more than it hurts Seattle. you know Manning has never liked to play in the cold

[ChalkyDog]

i don't know pal. only thing i'm sure of that'll go down is the total. spread most likely will go to 3 or 3.5 denver by game time.

You think the total is going to drop?

Over is the only play I like in this game.

[cruzing vato]

Nah the line will move to Denver -3

If anything bet the over now. I took over 48.

Take sea 3rd or 4th quarter now too, they might come back and win.

[homie1975]

projected temps for Superbowl Sun are mid 30's as the high, the lows drop to the low 20's.

kickoff is after 6:30 pm local time in East Rutherford

advantage: SEATTLE

(i'm the same guy that called Auburn +10.5 one of the best values in a BCS title game, ever, PRE KICKOFF)

[homie1975]

weather report for east rutherford on super bowl sunday: 35 degrees high, rain and sleet or rain and snow

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Weather.aspx?location=USNJ0128

[carolinacapper]

I've heard you should "buy" on rumors and "sell" on news. Which in this case means- play under the total now and if it drops closer to game based on weather, take the over. You might be sitting with a nice middle play...

[homie1975]

Nah the line will move to Denver -3

If anything bet the over now. I took over 48.

Take sea 3rd or 4th quarter now too, they might come back and win.

i don't see that happening, not budging off 2

i told you on 1/20 to take seattle ML that day because it will not get better

sunday temps at 6:40 pm local kickoff expected to be low 30's with 20% chance of rain and 18% chance of snow

peyton will hate the cold as usual

[homie1975]

of course if you like DEN then you continue to wait but this is for people who like SEA

i have no play other than SEA +8 on the second and final leg of two team teaser

[Statman]

Still believe Denver was not truly tested in the AFC championship game vs NE. Brady was not 100% all week, Talib goes down with an early injury and weather was great in Denver itself. Seattle on the other hand faced a "hot" SF team that was firing on offense and defense and came out on top although barely. Denver faced playoff foes of SD and NE wheare as Seattle faced NO and SF which in my opinion are more dangerous teams. We should know after the 1st quarter whether the SEA defense is getting to Manning and if so, it should be all SEA from there. Alternatively, if Manning has all day to pass, Denver will win going away. I'll take the better defense, the more mobile QB, and the bad weather proven team which is Seattle. Good luck in your plays...Statman

[slacker00]

Still believe Denver was not truly tested in the AFC championship game vs NE. Brady was not 100% all week, Talib goes down with an early injury and weather was great in Denver itself. Seattle on the other hand faced a "hot" SF team that was firing on offense and defense and came out on top although barely. Denver faced playoff foes of SD and NE wheare as Seattle faced NO and SF which in my opinion are more dangerous teams. We should know after the 1st quarter whether the SEA defense is getting to Manning and if so, it should be all SEA from there. Alternatively, if Manning has all day to pass, Denver will win going away. I'll take the better defense, the more mobile QB, and the bad weather proven team which is Seattle. Good luck in your plays...Statman

Yep, SEA just knocked off #3 and #2 in my power rankings. Weakest the AFC has been since Switzer was coaching.

[Fred The Hammer]

Still believe Denver was not truly tested in the AFC championship game vs NE. Brady was not 100% all week, Talib goes down with an early injury and weather was great in Denver itself. Seattle on the other hand faced a "hot" SF team that was firing on offense and defense and came out on top although barely. Denver faced playoff foes of SD and NE wheare as Seattle faced NO and SF which in my opinion are more dangerous teams. We should know after the 1st quarter whether the SEA defense is getting to Manning and if so, it should be all SEA from there. Alternatively, if Manning has all day to pass, Denver will win going away. I'll take the better defense, the more mobile QB, and the bad weather proven team which is Seattle. Good luck in your plays...Statman

Good post....Peyton homer here but don't have any strong opinions. I do think Moreno will catch atleast 5 balls with the screens and circle routes they run while Seattle's secondary is chasing Denver's other receivers. I do think Seattle winning at home with their crowd noise means nothing when traveling across the country. I would say Denver has more ways to win the game....Seattle MUST win the turnover battle imo. Denver is much better in the red zone...PM executes in the red zone better than anyone except maybe Rodgers.....Seattle kicks alot of field goals by comparison. I also read this week where Seattle had the 5th worst protection per pass play vs sacks allowed. Seattle is more physical and should win the turnover battle. Fox isn't a very good coach either imo. Its a tough one but I think the Moreno prop is a layup!!

[homie1975]

high winds expected around kickoff. nullify denver passing game and even things out on offense more?

[homie1975]

the expected temp keeps rising for SB sunday but the line is not getting to 3 like some of you expect. what gives?

[homie1975]

the line is back at 2 after barely hitting 2.5 for less than a day. this, even with the expected temps now over 40 degrees

no Denver -3 in site. a few of you were so sure. wow.

[MikeyD323]

Bovada line says it all. Been -3 since day one and not moved. Begging you to take fruithawks. Denver wins and covers.

[DrStale]

the line is back at 2 after barely hitting 2.5 for less than a day. this, even with the expected temps now over 40 degrees

no Denver -3 in site. a few of you were so sure. wow.

It's at 2.5 and has been there for days. I'm seeing the ML at +117 which is the highest I've seen it.

[homie1975]

no it's been at 2 for days, widely available. not 2.5

http://www.therx.com/lines/lines.php?sport=ncaafb&period=0

[DrStale]

no it's been at 2 for days, widely available. not 2.5

http://www.therx.com/lines/lines.php...caafb&period=0

Pretty sure you mentioned 5dimes in another post. It's been 2.5 there for at least 3 days.

[homie1975]

5dimes was at -2 -110, it was at -1 -135

[DrStale]

5dimes was at -2 -110, it was at -1 -135

Not for a few days bro. Unless you were using a different 5dimes than the rest of us.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

[slacker00]

Not for a few days bro. Unless you were using a different 5dimes than the rest of us.

http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/nfl-football/

It's been at this price for days, for me. SBRodds has very stale lines, it seems. #Pun Intended#

[homie1975]

Slacker's screenshot is how it has looked at 5Dimes for the past 8-9 days

[DrStale]

I've been on 5dimes each of the last several days and it's been 2.5 at least under reduced juice (never checked the standard lines). Also when OP posted a half hour ago that line was 2 it was definitely 2.5. Not sure why the line would be half a point off in the reduced but maybe it was.

[homie1975]

the point of the thread is that when it was SEA +2 it was a safe bet that it was at the peak for SEA backers. which was a very very safe bet because it only touched 2.5 widely available for half a day in the last 13 days since opening

at least two poster here were quite certain it would hit DEN -3 widely available and one even thought DEN -3.5 !!

OOOOPPSS!!

even with the weather reports way off the past several days (temps are obviously much higher than they were expected), the DEN line which would stand to move on this news has not budged

[Tmuston Beltics]

You think too much about the line movement. You think they will decide the winner. Obviously not the right way to go. GL

[homie1975]

no Celtics i do not use line movement to predict the winner i use line movement to make sure i get the best price on the dog or the fave, i have developed gut feelings over the many years which tell me when the line has peaked either way and then i pounced. perhaps i could have gotten +8.5 on the second leg of my 6 point teaser but i grabbed +8 and am very happy with it

[DrStale]

the point of the thread is that when it was SEA +2 it was a safe bet that it was at the peak for SEA backers. which was a very very safe bet because it only touched 2.5 widely available for half a day in the last 13 days since opening

at least two poster here were quite certain it would hit DEN -3 widely available and one even thought DEN -3.5 !!

OOOOPPSS!!

even with the weather reports way off the past several days (temps are obviously much higher than they were expected), the DEN line which would stand to move on this news has not budged

Fair enough but the average bettor is betting day of and they're getting 2.5 right now, so most people on Seattle are going to get the best line. I too wish it would hit 3.