Warning - Don't take Patriots ML

[Jago2008]

We were both on the 49ers last weekend.

222072304-1

1/12/14 5:26am

$400.00

$388.35

$788.35

Win

1/12/14 1:00pm NFL Football 115 San Francisco 49ers -1 -103* <small>vs</small> Carolina Panthers

I might pair those winnings and initial investment on the Broncos. Completely agree, this is Manning's year. I'm sorry but Blount is not going to have the same game this weekend IN Denver. Belichick is going to force the Broncos to run by taking away Manning's outside receivers, and that's exactly what Denver is going to do, with success.

[djmano]

would you bet your entire bankroll on denver, vyomguy?

[Da Manster!]

I'm on Denver as well...bought two points to get the line down to (-2.5) just in case...Anyhow, don't think for one second Manning isn't sick and tired of hearing how Tom Brady has 3 rings compared to his one...and also how even little bro Eli has two himself when being in conversations about the greatest QB's of all-time...This is his time to shine and it's right there for the taking...A lot of gamblers fall into the "error of recency" when handicapping games meaning they just remember what they saw last and don't consider the whole body of work...Fact is, New England caught Indy at the right time, coming off an hard fought, gut wrenching victory which probably left them emotionally drained...I think we are going to see the Denver team from earlier in the year when they were kicking ass and taking names...the only thing that would worry me about this game is the backdoor cover, hence why I bought some insurance points....

[Parligod]

would you bet your entire bankroll on denver, vyomguy?

Betting entire bankrolls is a terrible strategy in general. I'm guessing you are trying to determine how confident he is; if so just ask it.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Betting entire bankrolls is a terrible strategy in general. I'm guessing you are trying to determine how confident he is; if so just ask it.

When somebody, especially somebody sharp like Lion-Guy, says 'they will win' that is AS SURE as they will ever be on a game (aside from a game like Dream Team versus Nicaragua.

He would never bet his whole bank, or more on a game because he is not an idiot....and he knows that you don't get ahead going all in.

All he will be able to tell you is that he is as sure as he can possibly be, given the scenario.

And frankly....Shame on you for asking....all of what I said is common sense.

[Jago2008]

would you bet your entire bankroll on denver, vyomguy?

When starting a bankroll DJ bet accordingly to how much "you can lose" not about how much you desire to win. This is a sordid business and there is plenty of money to be made, invest what life dictates- and what u can afford.

[djmano]

i did not mean it as a challenge and i understand bankroll management. i meant it like parligod said just trying to see how confident he is because he is well-known as sharp capper and i value his opinion.

not trying to step on anyones toes, im just thankful for the good cappers who post there picks. i apologize if my words were offensive.

[dnwjdl]

Lion King has spoken.

[ebelisle22]

Can't wait to come back into this thread after the game and bash u

[2daBank]

i agree John Fox couldnt coach his way out of a wet paper bag. Thats why he got ran out of Carolina.

But on this team John Fox knows he is just a puppet. Peyton Manning is essentially the head coach and offensive coordinator.

Do u just say ignorant shit to see if ppl notice?

[TheAntFather]

The Lion has spoken.

[Big Bear]

Lion ,

tried to send you a PM but your inbox is full.

do you have any leans on the 49ers/ seahawks game or any other plays?

[JayLA]

Can't wait to come back into this thread after the game and bash u

I dont talk shit online but the more I read from you, the more I dont like you. Im glad youre not on Denvers side...all u do is talk shit, pound your chest and brag to complete strangers...get a life, you fkn douche

[Tommy Karate]

Lion ,

tried to send you a PM but your inbox is full.

do you have any leans on the 49ers/ seahawks game or any other plays?

im guessing thats b/c a lot of people PM him begging for his plays....he likely never clears it. haha

[Rangers901]

What's bills record in denver all time?

Who cares?

The Manning vs Brady stat is completely meaningless for one crucial reason. More than half of those games were played when the Pats had a top 3 defense, and the Colts had a bottom 5 defense.

Without a top 3 defensive unit, the Pats can't win, Brady has proven he was not the main component to those championship teams.

[Big Bear]

im guessing thats b/c a lot of people PM him begging for his plays....he likely never clears it. haha

if vyomguy was a tout i would pay for his plays.

ive seen enough to know he knows what he is doing.

i have no clue how b/c he doesnt give explanations but he picks winners which is what matters.

[Bagman5]

Who cares?

The Manning vs Brady stat is completely meaningless for one crucial reason. More than half of those games were played when the Pats had a top 3 defense, and the Colts had a bottom 5 defense.

Without a top 3 defensive unit, the Pats can't win, Brady has proven he was not the main component to those championship teams.

Actually, you are completely wrong with that assertion. Since 2001, the average DVOA league rank for the Patriots' defenses under Brady is 15.769 and the average DVOA league rank for all Manning defenses is 15.923. There really hasn't been that much separation between the defenses at all.

[Rangers901]

Actually, you are completely wrong with that assertion. Since 2001, the average DVOA league rank for the Patriots' defenses under Brady is 15.769 and the average DVOA league rank for all Manning defenses is 15.923. There really hasn't been that much separation between the defenses at all.

You're missing the point.

Im not talking about 01-Present, I'm talking about 01-06, where the Pats defense was head and shoulders above the Colts. The Pats were fielding a top 3 defense, and Indy was fielding a bottom 5 defense.

[Rangers901]

Actually, you are completely wrong with that assertion. Since 2001, the average DVOA league rank for the Patriots' defenses under Brady is 15.769 and the average DVOA league rank for all Manning defenses is 15.923. There really hasn't been that much separation between the defenses at all.

Also, how many Pats teams won a ring without a top 3 defence? The answer is 0.

So what's the common denominator here, the Pats defence, or Brady?

[Bagman5]

Also, how many Pats teams won a ring without a top 3 defence? The answer is 0.

So what's the common denominator here, the Pats defence, or Brady?

They still won those 3 rings, went to 2 other Super Bowls and a total of 8 or 9 (I lost count) AFC Championship games. The *common denominator*, no matter how good the defense was or who was around him on offense, is Tom Brady.

[Rangers901]

They still won those 3 rings, went to 2 other Super Bowls and a total of 8 or 9 (I lost count) AFC Championship games. The *common denominator*, no matter how good the defense was or who was around him on offense, is Tom Brady.

If Brady is the common denominator, and he's as great as you think, then I'm sure he would have been able to manage one more in the next 10 years, no?

[Rangers901]

They still won those 3 rings, went to 2 other Super Bowls and a total of 8 or 9 (I lost count) AFC Championship games. The *common denominator*, no matter how good the defense was or who was around him on offense, is Tom Brady.

I guess it's just a coincidence that, when the defence dries up, so do the rings?

Throw away the AFC Championship games. They play in a division that basically guarantees them a first round bye, which would mean they'd only have to win 1 game to get there.

[Jago2008]

If Brady is the common denominator, and he's as great as you think, then I'm sure he would have been able to manage one more in the next 10 years, no?

Ok I've seen enough of you writing about Tom Brady as a "Systems Quarterback" whatever argument you're trying to make, try to use a different player other than one who has routinely carried his team in recent years with underwhelming talent. Whatever parallel you're trying to draw that Brady "is not as great one thinks" surely are missing the point in a system-driven league like the NFL. You think Peyton Manning doesn't play to a system? Aaron Rodgers? All QBs in this league are subject to systematic standard. Furthermore you referenced recent years but forgot to mention Brady's 07' year - one which he threw 50 TDs to 8 Int's coupled with a 70% completion percentage - he had a perennial HOF WF in Randy Moss to throw too. Who has he had in recent years? Last time I checked it didn't matter how his defense did that year, what does matter- is Brady puts his team in a position to win, and with regularity. The bottom line is this league is driven by system QBs, and franchises are propagated as such- having a QB that is not a pocket-passer generally leads to injuries and/or bad decisions. I don't really care about having the best defense in the league, you still need a QB who can read multiple progressions.
To denegrate a QB like that of Tom Brady shows two things: either a misunderstanding or inherent bias to a team, or just plain ignorance.

EVEN With all this said I cannot stand the Patriots, I've been a fan of a perennial choker franchise in the Chargers for over two-decades, one cannot dissuade from the fact that a QB like Brady comes around once a generation. Manning is no different and also of the same caliber, both are system QBs, same could be said with Joe Montana, his legacy, like Mannings or Brady's weren't hinged on defense. Coupled with the fact that Brady had a very poor receiving core this year and finds himself in the AFC championship game AGAIN, says a lot about him, the argument is no different for Manning.

[thebestthereis]

the broncos have a better team and on paper this line is correct no question about it. the broncos will choke in this game and the patriots will go to the superbowl, mark my words.

[Tommy Karate]

Who cares?

The Manning vs Brady stat is completely meaningless for one crucial reason. More than half of those games were played when the Pats had a top 3 defense, and the Colts had a bottom 5 defense.

Without a top 3 defensive unit, the Pats can't win, Brady has proven he was not the main component to those championship teams.

i would beg to differ that brady wasnt the main cog of those teams. look what hes done this year with virtually no skill players all year. sometimes a good offense/QB make a defense that much better since they are playing with a lead (can be more aggressive).

i dont recall what the pats defenses were like back then, but when it matters in the playoffs these 2 basically win at home.

[Tommy Karate]

What's bills record in denver all time?

what is it? not that i think it matters, but just curious....

[Rangers901]

Everyone is missing the point.

I still think Tom Brady is a top 15 QB of all time, no doubt, but no one can bring a single point to the table that negates one simple point, why haven't the Pats been able to win another ring without a top 3 defence?

IF Brady is the greatest of all time, surely he'd be able to capture another ring without a top 3 defence, right?

If the common denominator is Brady and NOT the DEFENCE, than why haven't they won another 1? 2? 3?

I'm not a Brady hater, far from it, I can certainly admit he deserves his due as one of the best to play the position, but the greatest? That's downright silly.

Manning, Montana, Elway, etc. are all superior to Brady.

Just look at it from a purely logical standpoint. Pats have a top defense from 01-04, win 3 rings. Pats don't have a top 3 defense for the next 9+ seasons, and they have 0 to show for it.

But, remember, Matt Cassell, who hadn't started one singular game since high school, brought the Pats to a 11-5 record unexpectedly coming off the bench. The same guy who is now backing up one of the worst starting QB's in the league.

The Colts lose Manning for a season, a team that would win 11+ games every season, and they go 2-14.

[thenerfcollecter]

Everyone is missing the point.

I still think Tom Brady is a top 15 QB of all time, no doubt, but no one can bring a single point to the table that negates one simple point, why haven't the Pats been able to win another ring without a top 3 defence?

IF Brady is the greatest of all time, surely he'd be able to capture another ring without a top 3 defence, right?

If the common denominator is Brady and NOT the DEFENCE, than why haven't they won another 1? 2? 3?

I'm not a Brady hater, far from it, I can certainly admit he deserves his due as one of the best to play the position, but the greatest? That's downright silly.

Manning, Montana, Elway, etc. are all superior to Brady.

Just look at it from a purely logical standpoint. Pats have a top defense from 01-04, win 3 rings. Pats don't have a top 3 defense for the next 9+ seasons, and they have 0 to show for it.

But, remember, Matt Cassell, who hadn't started one singular game since high school, brought the Pats to a 11-5 record unexpectedly coming off the bench. The same guy who is now backing up one of the worst starting QB's in the league.

The Colts lose Manning for a season, a team that would win 11+ games every season, and they go 2-14.

You are very biased. When Colts lost Manning for a season they were already a team headed down and not up, who knows how they would've fared with Manning.

Here are the facts you leave out:
- In 2010 with Manning Colts were 10-6, certainly not a team that wins 11+ games every season.
- In 2011, the team that went 2-14, was forced to go with Curtis Painter for the duration.
- In 2012, when they had time to prepare, with Luck they went 11-5

The funniest part of your rants is you are trying to advocate how Brady needs a defense to win, I'm pretty sure this year their defense isn't great and he is played with a dismantled defense and weak offense which lost 5+ players, and still produced more. I'm not saying Manning is terrible, he made Austin Collie look like a stud and is good to.

All this bickering over which QB reigns supreme is stupid. Focus on enjoying the game and best of luck with your plays.

[Jago2008]

the broncos have a better team and on paper this line is correct no question about it. the broncos will choke in this game and the patriots will go to the superbowl, mark my words.

No bro, this is the Broncos game to lose, Broncos should cover 4-5 points.

[Butterface]

I'm sorry but I disagree with the broncos pick. I'll take the patriots all day long and twice on Sunday. It all comes down to coaching IMO. John fox doesn't coach anything! It's all mannings offense. Jack del rio is the only true coach on that team. Give me Bill against any Denver coach any day. Patriots large boys. GL on Sunday!

[ebelisle22]

I dont talk shit online but the more I read from you, the more I dont like you. Im glad youre not on Denvers side...all u do is talk shit, pound your chest and brag to complete strangers...get a life, you fkn douche

LOL I like you

[KRIT]

It just doesn't feel like it's the year for the Pats. I think all the injuries will finally catch up to them on Sunday. I still can't believe how they have gotten by with what little they have, but the Broncos are loaded. While the Pats will be showcasing Edelman and Amendola, the Broncoes will be rolling out pro-bowl players in Decker, DThomas, and Julius Thomas. Weather will also be nice and warm for Manning, so no need to worry about the cold.

It just feels like it is Peyton's year. He broke all the records. Broncos offense shattered a ton of records aw well. Manning stole Welker from Brady. Just seems like it's right for Broncos to move on if you believe in that "destiny" stuff. Either way Broncos got way too much talent for the injury riddled Patriots.

Think we are headed for Peyton vs. Legion of Boom in 2 weeks.

[kingdom]

the broncos have a better team and on paper this line is correct no question about it. the broncos will choke in this game and the patriots will go to the superbowl, mark my words.

i couldnt agree with you more. the eye test doesn't lie. in the biggest games brady is one of the best ever while there is not person in the world unfamiliar with peytons playoff struggles.jack nicklaus didn't win the most tournaments, but won the most majors. montana never lost a superbowl. michael jordan never allowed an opponent to reach a game 7 in the nba finals, let alone beat him. brady is one of the guys that lives for games like this. history shows manning struggles. (peyton, not eli)

[Rangers901]

i couldnt agree with you more. the eye test doesn't lie. in the biggest games brady is one of the best ever while there is not person in the world unfamiliar with peytons playoff struggles.jack nicklaus didn't win the most tournaments, but won the most majors. montana never lost a superbowl. michael jordan never allowed an opponent to reach a game 7 in the nba finals, let alone beat him. brady is one of the guys that lives for games like this. history shows manning struggles. (peyton, not eli)

Brady's playoff record where his team failed to field a top 3 defensive unit is 8-6. If that makes him so clutch, and the best ever in big games, than sure.

Why do you disregard the other 51 guys on the roster?

The defense was more responsible for winning those rings than Brady, if that wasn't true, than why have the Pats had virtually no success in the playoffs since not fielding a top 3 defense?

I keep saying this, IF Brady was responsible for the rings, and he is that great, why have the Pats managed to win absolutely nothing since then, especially since the division they play in gives them an automatic playoff birth every season?

I make the same comparison with Kobe and Shaq. Forever people said they didn't think Kobe was one of the greatest because he couldn't win a ring without Shaq, and that's basically what we have here, only some people are so delusional and brain washed they don't look beyond the surface.

I will only consider Brady a top 5 QB of all time if he can win a ring while being the main component of the team, not a game manager with an elite defense. If he can show me he can do that, he'll get his credit, but I don't think he can as he has proven in the last 10 seasons.

[broadway6]

Brady's playoff record where his team failed to field a top 3 defensive unit is 8-6. If that makes him so clutch, and the best ever in big games, than sure.

Why do you disregard the other 51 guys on the roster?

The defense was more responsible for winning those rings than Brady, if that wasn't true, than why have the Pats had virtually no success in the playoffs since not fielding a top 3 defense?

I keep saying this, IF Brady was responsible for the rings, and he is that great, why have the Pats managed to win absolutely nothing since then, especially since the division they play in gives them an automatic playoff birth every season?

I make the same comparison with Kobe and Shaq. Forever people said they didn't think Kobe was one of the greatest because he couldn't win a ring without Shaq, and that's basically what we have here, only some people are so delusional and brain washed they don't look beyond the surface.

I will only consider Brady a top 5 QB of all time if he can win a ring while being the main component of the team, not a game manager with an elite defense. If he can show me he can do that, he'll get his credit, but I don't think he can as he has proven in the last 10 seasons.

You forget pats won Super Bowls by 3. Vinateri is long gone.