i stopped betting CBB and NBA years ago because:

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  • homie1975
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 12-24-13
    • 15452

    #1
    i stopped betting CBB and NBA years ago because:
    too easy for the oddsmakers to make razor sharp lines and the wise guys to smash them into shape leaving scraps for the recreational guys.

    basketball is probably the least difficult (because nothing is easy) team sport for the oddsmakers and sharps to set the right line on.

    why?

    alternating possessions where each basket is worth 1, 2, or 3 points. each team gets what 50 possessions in CBB and 75 each in NBA? sample size for each game in terms of scoring, is too big.
    this helps the margin of error become very small for the linesmaker. slow death for a team trying to put another team away by 2 to 3 pts at a time, not like in football when you can jump up 21-0 on a team. in hoops 3 great possessions in a row means a 6-9 pt lead, not 21 pt lead.

    in football the better team on both sides of the ball and special teams can go on long drives and shut down their opponents when on D. they can give up literally nothing or maybe 3 to 10 pts while scoring 35 on their own. a good team in hoops wins by 7, a good team in football wins by 14, 17, 24, etc.

    in hoops, you score and then give the ball back and and good luck stopping a team from throwing a round object into a hoop from various distances and moving only 94 feet while on a dribble.

    basketball is nuts to wager on. fukking nuts.

    good luck all
  • LoveDaRush
    Restricted User
    • 12-28-13
    • 316

    #2
    No one cares, guy
    Comment
    • homie1975
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 12-24-13
      • 15452

      #3
      JJ Gold asked in the "Mich State -5.5" thread:

      "Nothing is easy why do these games always go to the number ?"

      this encouraged me to post my reasons why i do not wager on hoops

      trust me it's solid reasoning
      Comment
      • byronbb
        SBR MVP
        • 11-13-08
        • 3067

        #4
        Agree. Basketball most profitable sport for Vegas.
        Comment
        • SteveKerrsJunk
          SBR MVP
          • 10-25-13
          • 2706

          #5
          Basketball has gaped me hard all year. Not my sport.
          Comment
          • LordVodka
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-17-09
            • 5206

            #6
            The odd makers for basketball are almost psychic.
            Comment
            • jjgold
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 07-20-05
              • 388179

              #7
              Hoops does many bettors in

              I have said it numerous times
              Comment
              • sweep
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-09-10
                • 16753

                #8
                good post
                Comment
                • Regul8er
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-06-07
                  • 10666

                  #9
                  Funny because historically CBB and NBA have been my top sports without question. I think this year was my first winning NFL season since I began this crap.
                  Comment
                  • unluckysob
                    SBR MVP
                    • 05-21-08
                    • 1527

                    #10
                    Good post---I bet 365 days a year---no way to avoid baskets.
                    Comment
                    • sweep
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 10-09-10
                      • 16753

                      #11
                      Originally posted by unluckysob
                      Good post---I bet 365 days a year---no way to avoid baskets.



                      post of the year 1 week in
                      Comment
                      • homie1975
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 12-24-13
                        • 15452

                        #12
                        CBB and NBA will make most bettors poorer the next 5 mos
                        Comment
                        • thunderous
                          SBR MVP
                          • 06-05-12
                          • 1870

                          #13
                          Originally posted by homie1975
                          CBB and NBA will make most bettors poorer the next 5 mos
                          What you talkin about? Plenty of posters making lots of money
                          Comment
                          • Inkwell77
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-03-11
                            • 3227

                            #14
                            sharp post

                            Very very tough to beat college bball or nba.
                            Follow line moves and you'll probably do better than you would trying to handicap yourself.
                            Comment
                            • Cuse0323
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 12-09-09
                              • 30169

                              #15
                              solid post, basketball is the most difficult to be profitable on, IMO. the whole game doesn't matter, comes to the end the majority of the time and that's all luck for bettors. FT's, backdoor covers when the team is up and doesn't have to worry anymore and shots that don't mean a thing as the clock expires.
                              Comment
                              • NYSportsGuy210
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-07-09
                                • 11347

                                #16
                                Originally posted by homie1975
                                too easy for the oddsmakers to make razor sharp lines and the wise guys to smash them into shape leaving scraps for the recreational guys.

                                basketball is probably the least difficult (because nothing is easy) team sport for the oddsmakers and sharps to set the right line on.

                                why?

                                alternating possessions where each basket is worth 1, 2, or 3 points. each team gets what 50 possessions in CBB and 75 each in NBA? sample size for each game in terms of scoring, is too big.
                                this helps the margin of error become very small for the linesmaker. slow death for a team trying to put another team away by 2 to 3 pts at a time, not like in football when you can jump up 21-0 on a team. in hoops 3 great possessions in a row means a 6-9 pt lead, not 21 pt lead.

                                in football the better team on both sides of the ball and special teams can go on long drives and shut down their opponents when on D. they can give up literally nothing or maybe 3 to 10 pts while scoring 35 on their own. a good team in hoops wins by 7, a good team in football wins by 14, 17, 24, etc.

                                in hoops, you score and then give the ball back and and good luck stopping a team from throwing a round object into a hoop from various distances and moving only 94 feet while on a dribble.

                                basketball is nuts to wager on. fukking nuts.

                                good luck all

                                This is why you should try and bet dogs more in the NBA with the exception of a few really strong teams at home every year.
                                Comment
                                • Vinnie Paz
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 03-27-12
                                  • 12177

                                  #17
                                  Basketball by far is the easiest tobeat. Both college and pros. If you ever come across a professsional, they'll tell you the same. Hoops and bases(not for me though) easiest sports.
                                  Comment
                                  • raydog
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-07-07
                                    • 6984

                                    #18
                                    with overnight lines and people scared to death to hit games(day of) hard before ras release, you have no reason to not be betting cbb if you have a clue... very little line movement with overnight lines and the limits are more than enough for rec players... goodluck
                                    Comment
                                    • WhatALoser
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 12-30-13
                                      • 278

                                      #19
                                      I'm still learning but the one thing I do know in regards to the nba, there's nothing easy about it. Nobody feels comfortable gambling on a bunch of guys who might or might not show up/give their best effort for the night.
                                      Comment
                                      • VegasInsider
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 12-12-10
                                        • 14593

                                        #20
                                        Each team in college hoops doesn't get around 50 possessions each. In fact, KenPom tracks this.

                                        BYU averages the most possessions per game against an average tempo team (which KenPom's ratings)

                                        BYU averages 77 possessions per game (#1 in the nation) and they've only reached 90 total possessions in a game once this season (against another team quick team that ranks 54th in the nation)

                                        There are 351 D1 hoops programs in the country. Ranked at #175 is South Florida, which averages 67.8 possessions per game.

                                        So really...teams are looking at 35 or so possessions each

                                        For the record, Miami FL ranks dead last (#351) and only averages 60 possessions per game.
                                        Comment
                                        • RonPaul2008
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 06-08-07
                                          • 6741

                                          #21
                                          Basketball is the easiest major sport to win on.
                                          Comment
                                          • Koldazzice
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 11-08-11
                                            • 2392

                                            #22
                                            NBA you MUST handicap motivation. Its very important to know which team will/should show up. Purely capping x's and o's will leave you broke.
                                            When receiving my don best schedules I look for important games before the season starts and circle those games and make a comment of why its circled. Then each night I go over the results and find games that would lead to future motivation.

                                            I started doing this last year after a few very poor NBA seasons and its worked like a charm.

                                            To bad I'm an action junky and give some back on daily action plays lol.
                                            Comment
                                            • RonPaul2008
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 06-08-07
                                              • 6741

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Koldazzice
                                              NBA you MUST handicap motivation.
                                              Capping is not necessary.
                                              Comment
                                              • Darkside Magick
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 05-28-10
                                                • 12638

                                                #24
                                                A little secret with the NBA......when you "handicapping" and pick a side that you feel will win.....FADE IT!
                                                Comment
                                                • raydog
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 11-07-07
                                                  • 6984

                                                  #25
                                                  motivation...my god... so how much do you think motivation is worth?

                                                  one of the tout morons who did football vids for sbr talks of motivation...its really one of the more useless things when it comes to picking sides...if you are worried about motivation as a factor, you should be betting moneylines, because there is no way to model it into a line
                                                  Comment
                                                  • jjgold
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 07-20-05
                                                    • 388179

                                                    #26
                                                    Most pro players motivated all the time, huge misconception that they do not try. Loses usually come from off nights shooting or the other team playing great.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • bwinapati
                                                      SBR Rookie
                                                      • 02-06-13
                                                      • 48

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by RonPaul2008
                                                      Basketball is the easiest major sport to win on.
                                                      can please tell me which top10 betting sites offer live for basketball more choice pls

                                                      i have find it only bet365.com . have choice of under/over on every team in every quarter and too much choice.

                                                      can u please tell me in which another bet sites can find this choice pls.
                                                      thanks
                                                      Comment
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