2009 MLB Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers still in pursuit of Manny Ramirez
For the first time in 61 years, there is no spring joy in Vero Beach after the Dodgers ended their relationship with the Florida community and moved their training site from the Grapefruit League to the Cactus League in Arizona. It's starting to look like Joe Torre and Co. might have to move on with regards to re-signing Manny Ramirez as well after he rejected LA's latest contract offer.
Remember what I was saying about the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday? Well flip their season upside down and you pretty much have the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers.
While the D-Backs were streaking to a fast start in April, the Dodgers were languishing in the ranks, sitting 9-13 on April 24 before an 8-game win streak seemed to get them back on their feet. But they lost all they gained in that stretch during a 13-15 month of May, and then fell back even deeper in the pack with an 11-16 record for June.
July saw LA start to right the ship, beginning with a 3-game sweep of the Astros in Houston to start the month. After a loss to the Diamondbacks on July 31, Los Angeles was 54-54. They also had a big stick on the way to the club in the form of one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.
Manny provided immediate help in the lineup, but it didn’t translate into wins. An 8-game losing skid in late August left the Dodgers at 65-70 after play on Aug 29, second in the NL West 4½ behind Arizona. From that point on the Dodgers caught fire, winning 19 of their final 27 games to give Joe Torre and the Bums the NL West crown, just their second division titles since Tommy Lasorda’s tenure on the dugout’s top step ended in 1995. In those 27 games at the end of the slate, LA scored 149 runs while allowing 89, an average score of 5.5 to 3.2; over the course of their first 135 games, they were outscored 559-551.
The Dodgers were still making a push to re-sign Ramirez this week, reportedly offering him a new two-year, $45 million deal. MLB.com beat writer Ken Gurnick said in his recent article that the second year would be a player option, meaning Manny could bolt back into free agency following the 2009 campaign. However, Manny's agent Scott Boras told the Dodgers just last night (Feb 26) that his client was rejecting that offer and GM Ned Colletti didn't sound too pleased with the way things are going. Oh well, just Manny being Manny and Boras being the antichrist of baseball.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
The Dodgers offense could sure use Manny’s bat back in the fold. Even with Ramirez and his torrid bat for the final two months, LA ranked 13th in the NL with 700 runs scored, 13th in homers (137) and 13th in slugging (.399). The run statistical column the club did well in was steals, ranking fourth in the Senior Circuit with 126. That total certainly could have been higher if Rafael Furcal had been healthy.
That total also could go lower if Ramirez is signed since he would bump Juan Pierre, who paced the club with 40 SB, out of a starting job. Torre and Dodgers fans probably wouldn’t care much since they’d be replacing Pierre’s .717 lifetime OPS with Manny’s lifetime 1.004 mark.
As it stands now, Pierre will be in left with Matt Kemp in center and Andre Ethier in right. Both Kemp and Ethier are coming off solid seasons, each hitting .290 or better and driving in over 75 runs while scoring 93 and 90 respectively. Kemp’s 153 strikeouts led the club easily, accounting for nearly 15% of the team total. Still just 24, that’s about the only stat he needs to improve.
The Dodgers did address some of their infield concerns with the recent signing of Orlando Hudson to take the 2B job vacated when Jeff Kent announced his retirement. The three-time Gold Glove winner is definitely a defensive upgrade over Kent and Blake DeWitt who was being penciled in for the job before Hudson’s signing.
Furcal, limited to less than 40 games last season because of back surgery, returns at shortstop this year, and that will be a welcome change over Angel Berroa, Nomar Garciaparra and Chin-Lung Hu from a year ago.
Casey Blake will be at the hot corner with James Loney across the diamond at first. Blake’s not going to make anyone think of Brooks Robinson, or even Ron Cey, in the field, but he’s the best option LA has right now. Loney took a bit of a step back offensively in 2008, his first full season in the big leagues at 24. After swatting 15 homers and hitting .331 in 96 games in 2007, Loney slid back about 40 points on his average and only cracked 13 homers in 2008. But he did drive in 90 runs and the Houston native should rebound in ’09. I’m putting him down for 20 HR and OPS in the .820-.850 range.
The catcher will be Russell Martin, who the club considered moving to third at one point. Having played 151 and 155 games the last two years, his backup isn’t going to see much action this season.
Speaking of the backup catcher, it’s Brad Ausmus who left Houston to sign in the offseason to be the No. 2 backstop in LA. Delwyn Young and Jason Repko figure to be the reserves on the bench for the outfield, at least until Manny is signed. Mark Loretta, another Astros defector, is the primary backup on the infield at this time. DeWitt, Hu, Tony Abreu and Hector Luna are battling for remaining infield reserve spots.
PITCHING
Last year’s Dodgers mound was the best in the NL, ranking first in ERA (3.68), first in home runs allowed (123), second in fewest walks (480) and fifth in strikeouts (1,205). The staff came in with a 1.28 WHIP, also tops in the National League.
Though the starters were obviously a big part of the equation, where Los Angeles really excelled was down in the bullpen, and that’s where there will be some change in assignments this year. With Takashi Saito now trying to pitch through elbow trouble with the Red Sox, Jonathan Broxton is in line to take over closing duties on his own after sharing the role with Saito last year. An imposing figure on the hill, Broxton will be 25 about midway through the season and already has three full seasons under his belt after climbing through the Dodgers system as a 2nd-round pick in 2002.
To segue into whom sets Broxton up, a trivia question: Of all the pitchers to make their MLB debuts in 2008 and pitched at least 50 innings, how many came home with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00? If your answer is one, then you have done your winter homework very well. Corey Wade was the only 2008 newbie to make the list, but it’s starting to look like Torre and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt may have overused the former 10th-round pick out of little Kentucky Wesleyan college. He broke down in August to land on the DL, then came back to appear in 14 of LA’s final 28 games, plus seven of their eight October contests. He’s already taken a cortisone shot this spring, and if he’s not going to be available it shrinks an already thin bullpen.
Hong-Chih Kuo, slinging from the left side, and winter acquisition Guillermo Mota should get a lot of the 7th- and 8th-inning work whether Wade can go or not. Ramon Troncoso is being penciled in for the pen at this time, and the rest of the relief corps will shake out once the rotation is set.
The first four spots in the rotation should be set already with right-handers Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda plus lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw. Off a 16-10 season in 2008, Billingsley is the odds on favorite to get the ball Opening Day. Kuroda had one of the most deceptive 9-10 records in baseball history and it will be interesting to see how he does in his second MLB season.
Kershaw was the seventh overall pick in 2006 and has made it to the bigs rather quickly. He will barely be legal on Opening Day, turning 21 in mid-March, and could be the Opening Day hurler in 2010 and for many years to follow. Wolf, yet another new Dodger to end the 2008 season on the Astros roster, had his best season since 2003, and the first in which he was able to make more than 23 trips to the mound.
There is a wide open battle for the fifth and final spot in the group, headed by Jason Schmidt who hasn’t been on a major league mound since June 2006 as one injury and surgery after another has sapped this three-time All-Star’s career. If he can prove he’s healthy, it’s his job. But he will no doubt start the season on the DL. Vying for that spot to start the year are Claudio Vargas, Shawn Estes, Eric Milton, Eric Stults and possibly even Troncoso. Some of those will be in the bullpen.
SCHEDULE
LA will begin the year living out of their suitcases most of the time, but overall it’s a very even schedule with no double trips to the East Coast facing NL East squads. Only 16 of their 162 games will be played in the Eastern Time Zone, in fact.
In the simulations, Manny Ramirez was not part of the action obviously. Just as obvious is how much of an impact he would have should he sign. LA averaged 85.6 wins, and was remarkably consistent with a low of 80 and high of 89. These sims were also counting on Jason Schmidt for 15 starts, as well as some relief work from Corey Wade, so as the spring progresses that will have to be taken into account.
I suspect the break will eventually land on 86 or higher for the Dodgers, possibly 89 and up if Ramirez re-signs. Right now my gut says to lean to the Under if the total is 87 or higher.
The Greek lists the Dodgers at +815 to win their 10th NL Pennant, and +2250 to bring home their sixth World Series Championship.
For the first time in 61 years, there is no spring joy in Vero Beach after the Dodgers ended their relationship with the Florida community and moved their training site from the Grapefruit League to the Cactus League in Arizona. It's starting to look like Joe Torre and Co. might have to move on with regards to re-signing Manny Ramirez as well after he rejected LA's latest contract offer.
Remember what I was saying about the Arizona Diamondbacks yesterday? Well flip their season upside down and you pretty much have the 2008 Los Angeles Dodgers.
While the D-Backs were streaking to a fast start in April, the Dodgers were languishing in the ranks, sitting 9-13 on April 24 before an 8-game win streak seemed to get them back on their feet. But they lost all they gained in that stretch during a 13-15 month of May, and then fell back even deeper in the pack with an 11-16 record for June.
July saw LA start to right the ship, beginning with a 3-game sweep of the Astros in Houston to start the month. After a loss to the Diamondbacks on July 31, Los Angeles was 54-54. They also had a big stick on the way to the club in the form of one Manuel Aristides Ramirez.
Manny provided immediate help in the lineup, but it didn’t translate into wins. An 8-game losing skid in late August left the Dodgers at 65-70 after play on Aug 29, second in the NL West 4½ behind Arizona. From that point on the Dodgers caught fire, winning 19 of their final 27 games to give Joe Torre and the Bums the NL West crown, just their second division titles since Tommy Lasorda’s tenure on the dugout’s top step ended in 1995. In those 27 games at the end of the slate, LA scored 149 runs while allowing 89, an average score of 5.5 to 3.2; over the course of their first 135 games, they were outscored 559-551.
The Dodgers were still making a push to re-sign Ramirez this week, reportedly offering him a new two-year, $45 million deal. MLB.com beat writer Ken Gurnick said in his recent article that the second year would be a player option, meaning Manny could bolt back into free agency following the 2009 campaign. However, Manny's agent Scott Boras told the Dodgers just last night (Feb 26) that his client was rejecting that offer and GM Ned Colletti didn't sound too pleased with the way things are going. Oh well, just Manny being Manny and Boras being the antichrist of baseball.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
The Dodgers offense could sure use Manny’s bat back in the fold. Even with Ramirez and his torrid bat for the final two months, LA ranked 13th in the NL with 700 runs scored, 13th in homers (137) and 13th in slugging (.399). The run statistical column the club did well in was steals, ranking fourth in the Senior Circuit with 126. That total certainly could have been higher if Rafael Furcal had been healthy.
That total also could go lower if Ramirez is signed since he would bump Juan Pierre, who paced the club with 40 SB, out of a starting job. Torre and Dodgers fans probably wouldn’t care much since they’d be replacing Pierre’s .717 lifetime OPS with Manny’s lifetime 1.004 mark.
As it stands now, Pierre will be in left with Matt Kemp in center and Andre Ethier in right. Both Kemp and Ethier are coming off solid seasons, each hitting .290 or better and driving in over 75 runs while scoring 93 and 90 respectively. Kemp’s 153 strikeouts led the club easily, accounting for nearly 15% of the team total. Still just 24, that’s about the only stat he needs to improve.
The Dodgers did address some of their infield concerns with the recent signing of Orlando Hudson to take the 2B job vacated when Jeff Kent announced his retirement. The three-time Gold Glove winner is definitely a defensive upgrade over Kent and Blake DeWitt who was being penciled in for the job before Hudson’s signing.
Furcal, limited to less than 40 games last season because of back surgery, returns at shortstop this year, and that will be a welcome change over Angel Berroa, Nomar Garciaparra and Chin-Lung Hu from a year ago.
Casey Blake will be at the hot corner with James Loney across the diamond at first. Blake’s not going to make anyone think of Brooks Robinson, or even Ron Cey, in the field, but he’s the best option LA has right now. Loney took a bit of a step back offensively in 2008, his first full season in the big leagues at 24. After swatting 15 homers and hitting .331 in 96 games in 2007, Loney slid back about 40 points on his average and only cracked 13 homers in 2008. But he did drive in 90 runs and the Houston native should rebound in ’09. I’m putting him down for 20 HR and OPS in the .820-.850 range.
The catcher will be Russell Martin, who the club considered moving to third at one point. Having played 151 and 155 games the last two years, his backup isn’t going to see much action this season.
Speaking of the backup catcher, it’s Brad Ausmus who left Houston to sign in the offseason to be the No. 2 backstop in LA. Delwyn Young and Jason Repko figure to be the reserves on the bench for the outfield, at least until Manny is signed. Mark Loretta, another Astros defector, is the primary backup on the infield at this time. DeWitt, Hu, Tony Abreu and Hector Luna are battling for remaining infield reserve spots.
PITCHING
Last year’s Dodgers mound was the best in the NL, ranking first in ERA (3.68), first in home runs allowed (123), second in fewest walks (480) and fifth in strikeouts (1,205). The staff came in with a 1.28 WHIP, also tops in the National League.
Though the starters were obviously a big part of the equation, where Los Angeles really excelled was down in the bullpen, and that’s where there will be some change in assignments this year. With Takashi Saito now trying to pitch through elbow trouble with the Red Sox, Jonathan Broxton is in line to take over closing duties on his own after sharing the role with Saito last year. An imposing figure on the hill, Broxton will be 25 about midway through the season and already has three full seasons under his belt after climbing through the Dodgers system as a 2nd-round pick in 2002.
To segue into whom sets Broxton up, a trivia question: Of all the pitchers to make their MLB debuts in 2008 and pitched at least 50 innings, how many came home with an ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00? If your answer is one, then you have done your winter homework very well. Corey Wade was the only 2008 newbie to make the list, but it’s starting to look like Torre and pitching coach Rick Honeycutt may have overused the former 10th-round pick out of little Kentucky Wesleyan college. He broke down in August to land on the DL, then came back to appear in 14 of LA’s final 28 games, plus seven of their eight October contests. He’s already taken a cortisone shot this spring, and if he’s not going to be available it shrinks an already thin bullpen.
Hong-Chih Kuo, slinging from the left side, and winter acquisition Guillermo Mota should get a lot of the 7th- and 8th-inning work whether Wade can go or not. Ramon Troncoso is being penciled in for the pen at this time, and the rest of the relief corps will shake out once the rotation is set.
The first four spots in the rotation should be set already with right-handers Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda plus lefties Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw. Off a 16-10 season in 2008, Billingsley is the odds on favorite to get the ball Opening Day. Kuroda had one of the most deceptive 9-10 records in baseball history and it will be interesting to see how he does in his second MLB season.
Kershaw was the seventh overall pick in 2006 and has made it to the bigs rather quickly. He will barely be legal on Opening Day, turning 21 in mid-March, and could be the Opening Day hurler in 2010 and for many years to follow. Wolf, yet another new Dodger to end the 2008 season on the Astros roster, had his best season since 2003, and the first in which he was able to make more than 23 trips to the mound.
There is a wide open battle for the fifth and final spot in the group, headed by Jason Schmidt who hasn’t been on a major league mound since June 2006 as one injury and surgery after another has sapped this three-time All-Star’s career. If he can prove he’s healthy, it’s his job. But he will no doubt start the season on the DL. Vying for that spot to start the year are Claudio Vargas, Shawn Estes, Eric Milton, Eric Stults and possibly even Troncoso. Some of those will be in the bullpen.
SCHEDULE
LA will begin the year living out of their suitcases most of the time, but overall it’s a very even schedule with no double trips to the East Coast facing NL East squads. Only 16 of their 162 games will be played in the Eastern Time Zone, in fact.
- 16 of first 22 games on the road
- 24 of first 27 games vs. the NL West
- 22-29 (Home-Away) through May; 65-66 through August
In the simulations, Manny Ramirez was not part of the action obviously. Just as obvious is how much of an impact he would have should he sign. LA averaged 85.6 wins, and was remarkably consistent with a low of 80 and high of 89. These sims were also counting on Jason Schmidt for 15 starts, as well as some relief work from Corey Wade, so as the spring progresses that will have to be taken into account.
I suspect the break will eventually land on 86 or higher for the Dodgers, possibly 89 and up if Ramirez re-signs. Right now my gut says to lean to the Under if the total is 87 or higher.
The Greek lists the Dodgers at +815 to win their 10th NL Pennant, and +2250 to bring home their sixth World Series Championship.