2009 MLB Preview: Oakland Athletics
Oakland A’s take a Holliday
Now that they've got him, what are they going to do with him? Oakland's trade to land Matt Holliday over the winter was a puzzling move and has speculation already running rampant.
For the first half of last summer, it looked like Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics were going to once again confound the experts with another playoff-caliber season. The standard-bearer for small market, small payroll clubs succeeding in the role of David vs. the Goliaths of the MLB world, Oakland shot out to a 17-12 record in April and sat 51-42 on July 11 following a 9-2 win over the Angels.
That win left the A’s just four back of the Halos in the AL West and in the thick of the AL Wild Card hunt with the Red Sox and Twins at that time. Oakland seemed to be heading into the All-Star break on a high note.
Instead, that game marked the last time the club would see the +9 mark above the .500 level. The A’s proceeded to drop 19 of their next 21 games, including three-game sweeps at the hands of the Yankees, Royals and Red Sox, plus a four-game sweep to the Blue Jays.
Much of the second half demise can be blamed on Beane & Co. selling off a couple of top-notch pitchers in Rich Harden and Joe Blanton, plus an injury to Justin Duchscherer who was limited to just six starts after the Midseason Classic before being shut down due to hip trouble on Aug 18.
Known for building from within or acquiring new young talent when selling off veterans before they can get to the free agent table, Beane pulled off a deal this past winter that seemed totally out of character when he packed off left-hander Greg Smith, oft-injured closer Huston Street and promising young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to the Rockies in exchange for slugger Matt Holliday. It remains to be seen if Holliday was acquired just to try and coax a few more high-end prospects in another swap before this July’s trade deadline or use his imminent departure via free agency next winter to bolster Oakland’s high draft picks in 2010. One thing is for certain, and that is the A’s will not be able to sign Holliday to a long-term contract after this season as his agent, Scott Boras, will no doubt shop him to the Boston’s, New York’s, Chicago’s and Los Angeles’ of the MLB world.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Holliday wasn’t the only big stick added to the roster since the end of 2008 as the A's also brought 1B/DH Jason Giambi back into the Oakland fold. Big Gumby will presumably be the first baseman with Daric Barton relegated to a backup role for the season.
The one guy that should be happy to see both Holliday and Giambi in the order is Jack Cust. A former 1st-rounder out of high school by the Diamondbacks, Cust walloped 33 homers last year, seven more than in 2007, but his numbers generally declined across the board other than the HR column and despite playing two dozen more games than in ’07. He’s managed to walk 216 times in 272 games the past two seasons, but he’s also made that U-turn back to the dugout 361 times in the same span, averaging a whiff every 2.4 AB. That’s not good, but with a little more protection in the order this year, he should improve in that category.
Giambi will be joined on the right side of the diamond by 2B Mark Ellis who is coming off shoulder surgery this winter. The left side of the infield still finds Eric Chavez at third and Bobby Crosby at short. Chavez is coming back from shoulder surgery and has managed to play just 113 games the past two seasons combined, only 23 of them in 2008. Crosby exploded on the scene as a rookie in 2004 with 22 flies, but has basically imploded since. Winter rumors had Oakland talking to free agent Orlando Cabrera who remains a glove without a home at this time.
There isn’t a lot behind that infield, so keeping what they do have healthy is going to be a must. Jack Hannahan can play both infield corners with Cliff Pennington backing up the middle of the diamond.
Holliday’s outfield mates should be Ryan Sweeney in center and Travis Buck in right. Sweeney gets on base with relatively nice frequency; injuries have derailed a chunk of Buck’s career and development so far, though he just turned 25 last November and could get things turned around. Rajai Davis figures to be the top reserve for the outfield.
Kurt Suzuki is back behind the plate again with Rob Bowen his backup to start the year. Manager Bob Geren is already counting the days until he can get the switch-hitting Landon Powell into his lineup. The former star at South Carolina and 1st-round pick by Oakland in 2004 has shown the ability to hit the long ball in the minors and he could be up before the end of this year.
PITCHING
If it doesn’t seem that long ago that every MLB front office exec and fan drooled over the arms chunking the spheroid for the A’s, it’s because it wasn’t that long ago. The 2003 version of the Athletics included Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang. Hudson and Lilly were the elder statesmen of the group at 27.
This year’s Oakland rotation figures to come out of Spring Training with right-handers Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher plus lefties Dana Eveland, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez. Duchscherer is coming off a second hip surgery in as many years, and will be a free agent after this season, meaning he could be trade bait in July if the club is not in the hunt.
Eveland and Gallagher should be given more rope to play with this spring, and Braden has shown he can handle the mound in the minors…now if he can just translate that to the bigs. Gonzalez is one I hope to enjoy watching make some progress this year. He’s got strikeout stuff, but also suffers control lapses that you’d expect with a young arm.
Jerome Williams, most recently of the Nationals, and Edgar G. Gonzalez, formerly of the D-Backs, are in camp pushing for a job along with Josh Outman, a lefty who made four starts for Oakland in ’08 and didn’t fare too badly. Also keep an eye on James Simmons who is the stud in waiting and could get his call-up come this September or even earlier.
With Street gone, Geren has said he will go with a two-headed closer at least to start the season. Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler combined for a 0.85 ERA last year in over 105 innings, with Ziegler recording 11 saves and Devine vulturing a 6-1 W-L mark out of the pen. Santiago Casilla will share some of the 7th- and 8th-inning chores with veteran Russ Springer and Mike Wuertz, plus Jerry Blevins playing the lefty-specialist role. There’s a lot to like about this pen.
SCHEDULE
With the exception of the extra three series they will play on the East Coast against strong AL East clubs, the Athletics have a fairly even slate. There will be two long flights home without any time off, the first a Tampa to Oakland turnaround May 21-22, and another Boston to Oakland trip July 30-31.
The A’s averaged 79 wins over the course of five simulations, from a low of 73 to a high of 83. In three of the simulations, Holliday played at least 140 games; in the other two he was limited to 95 in an effort to replicate him being dealt in July.
Win totals are still not up and that is likely due to the books waiting to see where some of the last of the free agents sign. The Greek currently lists Oakland at +2050 to win the AL and +3550 to go all the way.
Now that they've got him, what are they going to do with him? Oakland's trade to land Matt Holliday over the winter was a puzzling move and has speculation already running rampant.
For the first half of last summer, it looked like Billy Beane and the Oakland Athletics were going to once again confound the experts with another playoff-caliber season. The standard-bearer for small market, small payroll clubs succeeding in the role of David vs. the Goliaths of the MLB world, Oakland shot out to a 17-12 record in April and sat 51-42 on July 11 following a 9-2 win over the Angels.
That win left the A’s just four back of the Halos in the AL West and in the thick of the AL Wild Card hunt with the Red Sox and Twins at that time. Oakland seemed to be heading into the All-Star break on a high note.
Instead, that game marked the last time the club would see the +9 mark above the .500 level. The A’s proceeded to drop 19 of their next 21 games, including three-game sweeps at the hands of the Yankees, Royals and Red Sox, plus a four-game sweep to the Blue Jays.
Much of the second half demise can be blamed on Beane & Co. selling off a couple of top-notch pitchers in Rich Harden and Joe Blanton, plus an injury to Justin Duchscherer who was limited to just six starts after the Midseason Classic before being shut down due to hip trouble on Aug 18.
Known for building from within or acquiring new young talent when selling off veterans before they can get to the free agent table, Beane pulled off a deal this past winter that seemed totally out of character when he packed off left-hander Greg Smith, oft-injured closer Huston Street and promising young outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to the Rockies in exchange for slugger Matt Holliday. It remains to be seen if Holliday was acquired just to try and coax a few more high-end prospects in another swap before this July’s trade deadline or use his imminent departure via free agency next winter to bolster Oakland’s high draft picks in 2010. One thing is for certain, and that is the A’s will not be able to sign Holliday to a long-term contract after this season as his agent, Scott Boras, will no doubt shop him to the Boston’s, New York’s, Chicago’s and Los Angeles’ of the MLB world.
OFFENSE / DEFENSE
Holliday wasn’t the only big stick added to the roster since the end of 2008 as the A's also brought 1B/DH Jason Giambi back into the Oakland fold. Big Gumby will presumably be the first baseman with Daric Barton relegated to a backup role for the season.
The one guy that should be happy to see both Holliday and Giambi in the order is Jack Cust. A former 1st-rounder out of high school by the Diamondbacks, Cust walloped 33 homers last year, seven more than in 2007, but his numbers generally declined across the board other than the HR column and despite playing two dozen more games than in ’07. He’s managed to walk 216 times in 272 games the past two seasons, but he’s also made that U-turn back to the dugout 361 times in the same span, averaging a whiff every 2.4 AB. That’s not good, but with a little more protection in the order this year, he should improve in that category.
Giambi will be joined on the right side of the diamond by 2B Mark Ellis who is coming off shoulder surgery this winter. The left side of the infield still finds Eric Chavez at third and Bobby Crosby at short. Chavez is coming back from shoulder surgery and has managed to play just 113 games the past two seasons combined, only 23 of them in 2008. Crosby exploded on the scene as a rookie in 2004 with 22 flies, but has basically imploded since. Winter rumors had Oakland talking to free agent Orlando Cabrera who remains a glove without a home at this time.
There isn’t a lot behind that infield, so keeping what they do have healthy is going to be a must. Jack Hannahan can play both infield corners with Cliff Pennington backing up the middle of the diamond.
Holliday’s outfield mates should be Ryan Sweeney in center and Travis Buck in right. Sweeney gets on base with relatively nice frequency; injuries have derailed a chunk of Buck’s career and development so far, though he just turned 25 last November and could get things turned around. Rajai Davis figures to be the top reserve for the outfield.
Kurt Suzuki is back behind the plate again with Rob Bowen his backup to start the year. Manager Bob Geren is already counting the days until he can get the switch-hitting Landon Powell into his lineup. The former star at South Carolina and 1st-round pick by Oakland in 2004 has shown the ability to hit the long ball in the minors and he could be up before the end of this year.
PITCHING
If it doesn’t seem that long ago that every MLB front office exec and fan drooled over the arms chunking the spheroid for the A’s, it’s because it wasn’t that long ago. The 2003 version of the Athletics included Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder, Rich Harden, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang. Hudson and Lilly were the elder statesmen of the group at 27.
This year’s Oakland rotation figures to come out of Spring Training with right-handers Duchscherer and Sean Gallagher plus lefties Dana Eveland, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez. Duchscherer is coming off a second hip surgery in as many years, and will be a free agent after this season, meaning he could be trade bait in July if the club is not in the hunt.
Eveland and Gallagher should be given more rope to play with this spring, and Braden has shown he can handle the mound in the minors…now if he can just translate that to the bigs. Gonzalez is one I hope to enjoy watching make some progress this year. He’s got strikeout stuff, but also suffers control lapses that you’d expect with a young arm.
Jerome Williams, most recently of the Nationals, and Edgar G. Gonzalez, formerly of the D-Backs, are in camp pushing for a job along with Josh Outman, a lefty who made four starts for Oakland in ’08 and didn’t fare too badly. Also keep an eye on James Simmons who is the stud in waiting and could get his call-up come this September or even earlier.
With Street gone, Geren has said he will go with a two-headed closer at least to start the season. Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler combined for a 0.85 ERA last year in over 105 innings, with Ziegler recording 11 saves and Devine vulturing a 6-1 W-L mark out of the pen. Santiago Casilla will share some of the 7th- and 8th-inning chores with veteran Russ Springer and Mike Wuertz, plus Jerry Blevins playing the lefty-specialist role. There’s a lot to like about this pen.
SCHEDULE
With the exception of the extra three series they will play on the East Coast against strong AL East clubs, the Athletics have a fairly even slate. There will be two long flights home without any time off, the first a Tampa to Oakland turnaround May 21-22, and another Boston to Oakland trip July 30-31.
- 12 of first 19 games vs. the AL East
- 24-26 (Home-Away) through May
- 29-28 (Home-Away) vs. AL West
- 3-7 (Home-Away) vs. Boston and Tampa Bay; 4-6 vs NY Yankees; 6-3 vs Toronto; 7-3 vs. Minnesota; 6-3 vs. Kansas City; 3-6 vs Chicago White Sox. The extra road games vs. the Red Sox, Rays, Yankees and White Sox are a definite disadvantage for the A’s, giving them an extra trip across the Lower 48 to Boston, Tampa and New York.
The A’s averaged 79 wins over the course of five simulations, from a low of 73 to a high of 83. In three of the simulations, Holliday played at least 140 games; in the other two he was limited to 95 in an effort to replicate him being dealt in July.
Win totals are still not up and that is likely due to the books waiting to see where some of the last of the free agents sign. The Greek currently lists Oakland at +2050 to win the AL and +3550 to go all the way.