Three reasons why I am betting Cards tonight in game

[stevenash]

(actually 5 reasons, but three are main points)

1) Cards are home dogs.

I love home dogs.
I love betting home dogs when the home team doesn't lose at home. (Well of course they lose, but I am making a point here) Cards are 54-27 at home this season. That's exactly 2 out of 3. 2 out of 3 all season at home (.667) is a rock solid percentage.
Bush is a very real home field advantage. Some poo-poo the home field advantage in baseball, Bush ain't the Trop where there are more Red Sox fans than Rays fans, Bush is extremely intimidating.

2) Card starter is getting no respect from the odds maker.
Joe Kelly is the starter, not Joe Saunders.
Kelly was 10-5, 2.69 ERA. Nice ! 1.35 WH/IP, mediocre, walks one batter too many, but certainly not "wild thing" by any stretch.
Even though LA beat the Cards 3 out 4 in St. Louis in August, it was Kelly who went pitch for pitch against some hamburger named Kershaw and beat him 5-1.

3) Dodger starter is getting too much love from Vegas off his regular season record this year.
Yes, Donald Greinke, but you can call me Zach, posted rock solid across the board numbers, fact still remains he is a head case, and has big time problems in prime time, bright lights, big city situations.
Proof?
OK, Greinke's mental problems are well documented, and his post season record (you know, when the pressure is on, when it matters) sucks,
Greinke's post season numbers, well, suck.
5.56 ERA sucks. 1.36 WH/IP in the post season doesn't really suck that ad, but you can sure see suck from there.

4) Cardinals bull pen is 100 percent healthy, Joe Kelly ain't going nine unless he's got a no hitter through 8, and even then he might not see nine.
His job is to keep the Cards in the game, turn it over to a good group of bullpen relievers.

5) Cardinal experience
Carlos Beltran has a crap load of post season experience, so does Holliday, you know the rest of the list.
Oh sure, Carpenter is a little green, and a couple of others, but Freese is a proven WS hero, Holliday is clutch, and that guy Beltran is the greatest post season hitter in my generation.
The greatest Nashy you say?
Yes, Beltran is the most successful post season hitter in this generation, not saying all time, but no other hitter has had more post season success than Beltran in the past few post seasons.

Want to bet Kershaw and LA at Bush in game 2 over Wacha?, go for it, we'll discuss that this weekend.

But for tonight's game, game 1, I am expecting the home dog to not just bark, but bite as well.
Woof, woof.

Cards +121 (5 Dimes) for me.

200 gets me 240 and change.

[No coincidences]

I'm on it as well, Nasher, but I have no problem chasing it tomorrow if they lose.

I think it's as simple as this: if the line drops before gametime, we're in good shape tonight. If not, we might be in trouble.

Good luck.

[stevenash]

Thanks NC, however, I don't believe in line movement, reverse line movement, line movement after baby Ashley burps after drinking her formula and Zippy the puppy dog farts after eating a rawhide.

I pay attention to it yes, but I don't fade line movement, I don't tail line movement.

Line movement doesn't hit, catch or field the ball either.

[No coincidences]

Thanks NC, however, I don't believe in line movement, reverse line movement, line movement after baby Ashley burps after drinking her formula and Zippy the puppy dog farts after eating a rawhide.

Ashley -150

[Louisvillekid1]

only nasher says 3 reasons and list 5

6) I'm secretly in love with the red birds.

Good luck Nasher, and thanks for the read

[stevenash]

only nasher says 3 reasons and list 5

6) I'm secretly in love with the red birds.

Good luck Nasher, and thanks for the read

Nasher did make 5 cases for the Red Birds, yes, but two of them came off of three central points.
Thanks LK, yes, this Yankee fan says Cards are a very easy team to like, love the way they think 0-2 counts on them are an advantage and take the ball the other way for hits, just like they teach as an 8 year old, a 12 year old and a 16 year old.

I have a crush on the Red Birds too, and LK ain't exactly chopped liver either.

[mikemca]

(actually 5 reasons, but three are main points)

1) Cards are home dogs.

I love home dogs.
I love betting home dogs when the home team doesn't lose at home. (Well of course they lose, but I am making a point here) Cards are 54-27 at home this season. That's exactly 2 out of 3. 2 out of 3 all season at home (.667) is a rock solid percentage.
Bush is a very real home field advantage. Some poo-poo the home field advantage in baseball, Bush ain't the Trop where there are more Red Sox fans than Rays fans, Bush is extremely intimidating.

They were 1-3 at Bush vs the Dodgers in 2013.Outscored 26-8.


At the odds though you may be right about Cards being the side.I'm thinking about scalping out from LA since the line moved so much.

[jnickell100]

Was gonna say the same thing, looks like 5 points to me. Personally, I'd add a 6th reason. Lakerboy is on the dodgers. That trumps any of your other reasons.

[sbrhedge]

Was gonna say the same thing, looks like 5 points to me. Personally, I'd add a 6th reason. Lakerboy is on the dodgers. That trumps any of your other reasons.

Man, Laker gets crapped on like a barn in Iowa ... but I hope that's the reason to go with STL

[stevenash]

They were 1-3 at Bush vs the Dodgers in 2013.Outscored 26-8.

I made that point, but added Kelly was the one that beat Kershaw.

Best of luck, hope everything you wager this weekend is gold Jerry, gold.

[Louisvillekid1]

Nasher did make 5 cases for the Red Birds, yes, but two of them came off of three central points.
Thanks LK, yes, this Yankee fan says Cards are a very easy team to like, love the way they think 0-2 counts on them are an advantage and take the ball the other way for hits, just like they teach as an 8 year old, a 12 year old and a 16 year old.

I have a crush on the Red Birds too, and LK ain't exactly chopped liver either.

I was speaking as you, lol... Phillies fan here

[stevenash]

Man, Laker gets crapped on like a barn in Iowa ... but I hope that's the reason to go with STL

Like a back stable at Churchill Downs.

Say what you want about LB (and we do say a lot) he tries.

[stevenash]

I was speaking as you, lol... Phillies fan here

Are you a long suffering fan when Larry McWilliams toed the rubber?

[Louisvillekid1]

Since I moved to philly area, over 15 years

[t-wizzle]

Nice writeup.


I think Dodger bats will get to Kelly tonight. Really don't think he's that good.

[stevenash]

Nice writeup.


I think Dodger bats will get to Kelly tonight. Really don't think he's that good.

That's fine, good luck this weekend Twiz.

[t-wizzle]

That's fine, good luck this weekend Twiz.

You too man.

[Down_Goes Bookie]

Kelly may have a 2.69 ERA... but under the hood is a 4.19 FIP .296 BABIP and 83% strand rate. And a 1.44 WHIP at home. Last outing vs. Pirates he went 5.1 IP giving up 5 hits and 4 BBs... and wiggled out with just 2 ER. Something's gotta give.

I'm not super confident in Greinke in this matchup, but still like LA to take Game 1. Good luck.

[matt1216]

This is the cardinals. They have been there done that. They should have the edge tonight. There coach knows jets has is pitching tomorrow. LA expected to win it all. Really. Last i remember the Cardinals are more clutch then kobe in his prime.... Ok maybe not that clutch but they have been to the big dance. LA hasnt

[rcene]

Good luck Nash

[stevenash]

Kelly may have a 2.69 ERA... but under the hood is a 4.19 FIP .296 BABIP and 83% strand rate. And a 1.44 WHIP at home. Last outing vs. Pirates he went 5.1 IP giving up 5 hits and 4 BBs... and wiggled out with just 2 ER. Something's gotta give.

I'm not super confident in Greinke in this matchup, but still like LA to take Game 1. Good luck.

Correct, Kelly is a contact pitcher, I am aware of the ancillary numbers, yes, I am not a fan of Grienke in any pressure situation.

Bottom line, I am getting +121 in a pick 'em situation.

I like +121 on 50/50 props.

Best of luck to you as well, good post, astute post at that.

[Sam Odom]

if the line drops before gametime, we're in good shape tonight. If not, we might be in trouble.

Sharp

.

[whtsox13]

Thanks NC, however, I don't believe in line movement, reverse line movement, line movement after baby Ashley burps after drinking her formula and Zippy the puppy dog farts after eating a rawhide.

I pay attention to it yes, but I don't fade line movement, I don't tail line movement.

Line movement doesn't hit, catch or field the ball either.

But what if I beat the closer, Nash? Don't I win?

[stevenash]

[QUOTE=Sam Odom;19885922]Sharp

Oh shit, it's +120 down from +121 at 5D now

I'm doomed.

[stevenash]

But what if I beat the closer, Nash? Don't I win?

What's the bottom line?

[Sam Odom]

I'm doomed.

Well... Sammy is doomed with you

This is a bigger than normal Game 1 @ home for StLou

[stevenash]

^
I was being sarcastic lol

@Whtesox1
Att 6:00 pm 5D was offering +121.

The number I wanted was +120 or better, I got that, I decided to lock it in right there.
If the number at 8:00 settled at +126, guess what? I did not beat closing line, providing the Cards won. Sucks to be me.
But I got the number I wanted, I did not want to play watch the line bounce up and down for 2 hours, if you got +126, great, I am thrilled I am collecting at +121
Now, if the line closes at +117, I guess I did beat the closing line 2 hours before the ump bellows 'play ball'

What I am saying is, oh sure it's nice to beat the closing line, but if you get the number you want, just bet the thing.

BoL Whitesox

[whtsox13]

^
I was being sarcastic lol
What I am saying is, oh sure it's nice to beat the closing line, but if you get the number you want, just bet the thing.

BoL Whitesox

I was too. On the other side tonight booked LA -112 last night. Good luck dude!

[stevenash]

Did not load right

[stevenash]

5D closing line is 129/-119

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm on Cards First Five .....I think Dodgers come out sluggish after all those days off. Getting Cards at a plus number first five at home against a team that's been off for almost a week......I'll take that all day, every day.


GL guys

[stevenash]

Great game. Got my money's worth and then some. Leaning Kershaw game 2, maybe.

[Jago2008]

Wow great write-up stevenash.

St. Louis Cardinals have a great chance of winning this series now statistically speaking. I know that's the most ridiculously obvious thing to say, but 60% of the time it works every-time.