El Niño's WNBA Thread

[El Nino]

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All bets will be using 5Dimes or BookMaker's lines.
Good bet discipline, to win 1u on spreads and totals per bet unless otherwise stated.
LET'S PLAY, BEAVER BALL!

[El Nino]

7/20

San Antonio Silver Stars -2 (-120) 1.2u BookMaker
5Pt Ties Win Teaser Chicago Sky -6/Los Angeles Sparks -3 (-115) 1.15u 5Dimes

YTD
0-0 +/-0u

Connecticut averages 4.5 less points on the road (69) as opposed to their average for the season (73.5). Connecticut is 4-10 ATS this season and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. This includes not covering as a 7.5 favorite at home against San Antonio on 7/14. Connecticut should have lost this game, but they went on a 17-4 run in the 4th quarter and held on to win 86-84. Connecticut is 1-5 ATS on the road this season. Connecticut has 1 quality win over the defending champion Indiana Fever on the road.

San Antonio averages 3 points more at home (76.4) as opposed to their average for the season (73.4). San Antonio is 6-10 ATS this season and 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games. San Antonio is 2-5 ATS at home this season. San Antonio has quality wins at home over Eastern Conference's leading Chicago Sky and the Los Angeles Sparks. San Antonio has a quality road win against the Phoenix Mercury.

Both teams are coming off back to backs where they lost. I will back the more consistent ATS team at home, laying the points. San Antonio played arguably the top team in the WNBA in the Minnesota Lynx, while Connecticut lost on the road to Tulsa. I bought the hook as I have been getting beaten by it as of late.

For the teaser, I'm backing Los Angeles to come back strong after blowing their home winning streak the other night. I expect them to play hard and put up points on the road. Los Angeles is the top scoring team in the WNBA while Seattle is 2nd to last. Los Angeles beat Seattle in LA to open the season 102-69. I also like Chicago to win the 2nd half of their home and home against New York. I just did a write up for the game on 7/18 which went exactly as planned. http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...-part-2-a.html Post #3. Chicago will be without Sylvia Fowles who missed the last game with a bum ankle. I expect Elena Delle Donne to pick up the slack again and continue her toward pace towards the All-Star Break. Again, did the teaser here as I am a little gun shy as my losses lately have been from 0.5-2 points.

[Vinnie Paz]

Wnba lines are super sharp nin
Bol my guy

[El Nino]

Wnba lines are super sharp nin
Bol my guy

I agree, they have been razor sharp lately. Thanks, pal!

[CarpeDime]

was kind of liking SA too, i wonder what the deal is with the movement, it's almost pick em now

maybe market manipulation? maybe billy sent some low-level guys to push it down a bit, and then 30 mins before tip he'll be coming with the big guns and pounding the ever-living fuk out of SA??

slightly intrigued by the movement so far is alls im saying

[El Nino]

was kind of liking SA too, i wonder what the deal is with the movement, it's almost pick em now

maybe market manipulation? maybe billy sent some low-level guys to push it down a bit, and then 30 mins before tip he'll be coming with the big guns and pounding the ever-living fuk out of SA??

slightly intrigued by the movement so far is alls im saying

Losher, the same thing happened with Connecticut yesterday. I wouldn't get too wrapped up in the line movement. Line moved against all 3 dogs yesterday and the favs covered. I have seen San Antonio play over their head and beat better teams. They are poor defensively, but Connecticut has struggled to score on the road. Connecticut has been consistently mediocre/bad on the road. I can understand people taking the points if they feel it's a flip game.

[marniblitz]

Simple explanation--San Antonio starting forward injured in last night's game.

[El Nino]

Simple explanation--San Antonio starting forward injured in last night's game.

Correct, broad was on crutches yesterday after she came out of the game. Was listed as questionable, but I didn't expect she would play today.

[marniblitz]

Yeah, the official announcement that she wasn't playing was made this morning and that's when I noticed the line starting jumping around.

[CarpeDime]

Correct, broad was on crutches yesterday after she came out of the game. Was listed as questionable, but I didn't expect she would play today.

so just lets be clear - you still like SA even though starting broad is out?

[El Nino]

so just lets be clear - you still like SA even though starting broad is out?

I capped it with her out. IMO she's not worth 1.5 pt swing on the spread.

[El Nino]

Cash San Antonion, Chicago teaser alive. Would have been a push at -11 and saw it get to -12 on BookMaker. I guess baskets teasers can pay off.

Let's go, Sparks

[El Nino]

Bailing out. Added: Sparks 2H +6.5 (-110) Bookmaker to win 2u

[El Nino]

^ Storm +6.5 2H not Sparks.

[El Nino]

1-2 -2.35u

7/21

Minnesota Lynx -4 (-110) 3.3u BookMaker

YTD
1-2 -2.35u

The Lynx own the Mercury having beat them 3 times already this season, once on the road/twice at home,by an average of 21 points. The Lynx are fully healthy with Seimone Augustus back after playing in her first full game 2 nights ago. Minnesota is too deep and too skilled for Phoenix. Ball security will be important in this game as Phoenix can score a lot of points (2nd in the league). Minnesota leads the league in the least average # of turnovers per game. In their last matchup, Minnesota won the turnover battle 21-8. Minnesota scored 26 pts. off of Phoenix's 21 turnovers.

Taurasi will more than likely get her 20-23 pts. but the Lynx defense keyed on her in their last mathcup and held her to 4 points on only 6 shots from the field in a blowout win. Brittney Griner is listed as questionable with the same knee injury that has kept her out the last 3 games. However, with only 2 games remaining until the All-Star break I wouldn't be surprised if she waited until then and fully healed up. As I mentioned above, ball security and turnovers can swing this game and Phoenix has lost the turnover battle in their last 4 games. Phoenix is last in the league in points allowed, allowing an average of 85.7 per game. If Minnesota scores 85 points or more, they should get the cover. I think after beating LA on the road, Phoenix is up for a let down game here against an opponent they have lost to 8 straight games including 4 straight losses in Phoenix.

[kobstopa]

1-2 -2.35u

7/21

Minnesota Lynx -4 (-110) 3.3u BookMaker

YTD
1-2 -2.35u

The Lynx own the Mercury having beat them 3 times already this season, once on the road/twice at home,by an average of 21 points. The Lynx are fully healthy with Seimone Augustus back after playing in her first full game 2 nights ago. Minnesota is too deep and too skilled for Phoenix. Ball security will be important in this game as Phoenix can score a lot of points (2nd in the league). Minnesota leads the league in the least average # of turnovers per game. In their last matchup, Minnesota won the turnover battle 21-8. Minnesota scored 26 pts. off of Phoenix's 21 turnovers.

Taurasi will more than likely get her 20-23 pts. but the Lynx defense keyed on her in their last mathcup and held her to 4 points on only 6 shots from the field in a blowout win. Brittney Griner is listed as questionable with the same knee injury that has kept her out the last 3 games. However, with only 2 games remaining until the All-Star break I wouldn't be surprised if she waited until then and fully healed up. As I mentioned above, ball security and turnovers can swing this game and Phoenix has lost the turnover battle in their last 4 games. Phoenix is last in the league in points allowed, allowing an average of 85.7 per game. If Minnesota scores 85 points or more, they should get the cover. I think after beating LA on the road, Phoenix is up for a let down game here against an opponent they have lost to 8 straight games including 4 straight losses in Phoenix.

i am totally agreed with your take, but what's bother me is why the book give Lynx -4 ? despite
lynx had won 3 games series with a double digits. This is just too easy. It wouldnt surprise me at all
that the public will side with Lynx in this one & the line is moving which indicated exactly just that.

[jjgold]

I am not a fan of betting this league, teams very erratic

Nino has great write ups and makes you want to play his picks, their convincing

[El Nino]

i am totally agreed with your take, but what's bother me is why the book give Lynx -4 ? despite
lynx had won 3 games series with a double digits. This is just too easy. It wouldnt surprise me at all
that the public will side with Lynx in this one & the line is moving which indicated exactly just that.

Sometimes it is that easy. I don't get too wrapped up in the public side or line movement with WNBA. The Lynx could lay an egg on the road, but I expected this to open at least at -6 Lynx. I'm thinking the road win at LA bought Phoenix a few points. I see this kind of like Chicago and New York. Phoenix just matches up poorly with Minnesota. BOL

[El Nino]

I am not a fan of betting this league, teams very erratic

Nino has great write ups and makes you want to play his picks, their convincing

JJ sometimes this broads piss me the fukk off. Last night for example. Seattle up by 1 with 30 seconds left and a full possession coming out of a timeout. You figure they hold the ball and drive the hoop, draw a foul or get a good look late into the shot clock and at worst, give LA the ball with 7 seconds or less. Instead, 8 seconds into the possession some broad jacks up a missed 3 and LA gets the ball with 22 seconds left and now LA has the last shot with a chance to win...and they do. Now the 2H spread was -6.5 to -7 LA. It was sitting at -7 when that play happened. Late money came in on LA 2H -7. Conspiracy or just shitty playing? I lean towards shitty playing...but I can see how people think this league is rigged. Some fishy foul/no foul situations lately to close out games as well.

[Smoke]

The boy please dont go tout on us
But if you do....
Remember us lil guys on your way up


Guten Tag!

[El Nino]

The boy please dont go tout on us
But if you do....
Remember us lil guys on your way up


Guten Tag!

Smoker, no fake dead wife here, pal.

[Vinnie Paz]

Smoker, no fake dead wife here, pal.

HAHAH!!
Looks like you gotta good # afterall

[El Nino]

HAHAH!!
Looks like you gotta good # afterall

Yeah, I figured Minnesota would get pounded so I hit the opener. I assumed the line would only keep going in Minnesota's favor if Griner was ruled out (she is still questionable). Prob getting hit on teasers too. All 3 spreads teaser friendly.

[El Nino]

1-0 +3u

YTD
2-2 +0.65u

It pays to beat the closing # by 3.5 pts. That was a sweat.

[fitguy67]

bang. glad i hopped on early with you

[shevabets]

JJ sometimes this broads piss me the fukk off. Last night for example. Seattle up by 1 with 30 seconds left and a full possession coming out of a timeout. You figure they hold the ball and drive the hoop, draw a foul or get a good look late into the shot clock and at worst, give LA the ball with 7 seconds or less. Instead, 8 seconds into the possession some broad jacks up a missed 3 and LA gets the ball with 22 seconds left and now LA has the last shot with a chance to win...and they do. Now the 2H spread was -6.5 to -7 LA. It was sitting at -7 when that play happened. Late money came in on LA 2H -7. Conspiracy or just shitty playing? I lean towards shitty playing...but I can see how people think this league is rigged. Some fishy foul/no foul situations lately to close out games as well.

Me too. If anyone thinks professional athletes (and coaches) don't make mistakes, just ask Frank Vogel about his Game 1 substitution @ Miami

[shevabets]

Yeah, I figured Minnesota would get pounded so I hit the opener. I assumed the line would only keep going in Minnesota's favor if Griner was ruled out (she is still questionable). Prob getting hit on teasers too. All 3 spreads teaser friendly.

Well done. I too had that line but I was extremely sure they would win by 10+ so I sold a full point. Happy to just push after all that went down. Phoenix seem to be playing decent ball as of late; I may have to take them getting +12 or more on Wednesday, with or without Griner.

[El Nino]

Well done. I too had that line but I was extremely sure they would win by 10+ so I sold a full point. Happy to just push after all that went down. Phoenix seem to be playing decent ball as of late; I may have to take them getting +12 or more on Wednesday, with or without Griner.

Yeah, Taurasi has been excellent lately. Even with the worst defense in the league they have been tough. I have noticed they have the tendency to fizzle down the stretch in the 4th quarter. Probably an effect of the injuries and lack of depth on the bench.

[El Nino]

7/23

Under 138.5 New York Liberty/Indiana Fever (-110) 2.2u BookMaker

YTD
2-2 +0.65u

At first glance, this total appears to be low. However, when you delve into the stats and recent performances, I think there is value in the under. Indiana has been dealing with injuries all season and are finally healthy and playing to their potential. Indiana plays some of the best defense in the league holding opponents this season to 68.9 pts/game which is ranked #1 in the league. In Indiana's last 5 games they have held their opponents to an average of 62 pts/game. Indiana also doesn't score that many points. They are ranked 2nd to the last in the league in average pts scored/game at 69.6. Indiana has improved in scoring as of late averaging 71.2 pts/game in their last 5 games. The Under is 4-1 in Indiana's last 5 games played and the Under is 6-3 in Indiana's 9 home games this season.

New York is struggling and on a downhill slide as of late. While New York has averaged 73 pts/game on the road this season, in their last 5 games they have averaged only 61.4 pts/game. They lead the league in turnovers and Indiana leads the league in steals. I expect a sloppy game out of New York on the road and they may not score 60 this game. The Under has hit in New York's last 4 games played.

These teams have met twice this season with an average total score of 135. There were 143 pts scored in a June 5th game in New York where New York won 75-68 in OT (21 additional pts. were scored in OT). In their last meeting on July 13 in Indiana, Indiana won 74-53.

[El Nino]

7/24

Minnesota Lynx -14 (-110) 4.4u BookMaker

YTD
2-3 -1.55u

Line opened at -12 at is up to -14.5 in some places. Taurasi is suspended for too many technical fouls. Phoenix playing good ball as of late but mostly due to Taurasi's shooting and distributing the ball. Early game, last game before the All-Star Break, Lynx roll here.

[El Nino]

Added: Chicago Sky -4 (-107) 1.07u 5Dimes

[El Nino]

0-2 -5.47U

I'm honestly just going to fade the "correct" play from now on. Or what I perceive it to be at least. Lynx just coast around and miss 5 shots in the last 3 minutes and end the game on a turnover. All dogs covered today after they appeared to have zero chance at the half.

YTD
2-5 -7.02u

[El Nino]

7/25

Tulsa Shock -2.5 (-110) BookMaker
New York Liberty +3 (-110) Bookmaker

YTD
2-5 -7.02u

As I said, I faded myself with these two picks. Fukkin' league has been a mess, could be that they are going into the All-Star Break and these dykes can't wait to scissor some sexy bitches...who knows.

[Ratzz]

7/24

Minnesota Lynx -14 (-110) 4.4u BookMaker

Added: Chicago Sky -4 (-107) 1.07u 5Dimes

0-2 -5.47U

I'm honestly just going to fade the "correct" play from now on.*

YTD
2-5 -7.02u

dude, you are doing fine.. don't fade your own picks.. just switch to 1st Qtr bets.
Both Chicago and Minnesota EASILY covered those 1Q lines.

BOL

[hougigo]

I'm at odds with Fever/Shock.
Fever should be the better team with most their players back from injury.... shock on a streak though.
Indiana has won the last 6 of the series... just depends if Shock keep up the way they're playing and Fever lay an egg