NBA Betting: Should I fade or should I follow?
NBA Betting: Should I fade or should I follow?
The next two weeks can be boring for fans and bettors as the NFL gets in every little bit of pregame hype for the Super Bowl. But the savvy bettors who aren't as easily distracted, there's opportunity aplenty on hardwood floors across the NBA landscape. After suffering a couple of injuries recently and playing relatively flat, the New Orleans Hornets appear to be perfect fade candidates over their next seven games.
I’ve often described the practice of betting on sports in terms of market investment. However, there is one major difference between the two: instant gratification. Frequent buying and selling of shares can be detrimental to your bankroll as you rack up the commission fees. In sports, the investment you make in a single-game matchup doubles or disappears overnight. Making multiple bets is essential to building a nest egg.
Short-term thinking applies even more to the NBA. This is a league of streaks; a team goes hot and cold against the betting odds and back again over the course of a season. Here are my bandwagon picks for fading and following specifically over the next two weeks.
Fade: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets are buzzing right along at 9-4 SU since Christmas Day, but at just 6-7 ATS. They’ve got a fairly soft schedule over the next two weeks, with five of seven games at home and four against losing teams. That should keep the betting public relatively unaware of how flat New Orleans is compared to last year’s team. The reason to jump in now: injuries suffered by both Tyson Chandler and Hilton Armstrong on Monday versus the Pacers.
The 2007-08 Hornets had a consistent starting rotation and a number of secondary scoring options. This year’s model runs primarily on point guard Chris Paul (22.1 points, 11.8 assists per 40 minutes); nearly everyone else around him is playing at a lower level than last year, and the arrival of James Posey (42.2 percent from downtown) hasn’t been enough to make up the difference.
Losing both Chandler (ankle) and Armstrong (knee) at the 5-spot could be enough to throw the Hornets completely off track. Chandler (11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds/40) is the team’s starting center, a premium defender and a reliable source of points running the alley oop with Paul. Armstrong (8.72 PER) has been a disappointment in his three years with the team, but at least he’s a warm, 6-foot-11 body at a difficult position on the floor. Expect to see a whole lot of New Zealand native and noted 12th man Sean Marks over the next two weeks.
Follow: Toronto Raptors
Timing is everything when looking for a team that’s due for a hot streak. The Indiana Pacers have been a great “follow” team at 6-1 ATS since Mike Dunleavy got back into the lineup. But betting lines adjust – and hopping on board the Pacers bandwagon right now defies the very idea of buying low. The Toronto Raptors have lost six games in a row at 2-3-1 ATS. Perfect, in other words.
There’s no question Toronto’s one of the big busts of the 2008-09 campaign. However, that’s what happens when two of your three star players are hurt. Jose Calderon (hamstring) and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) have both been largely absent this month, leaving Toronto short of talent at the two most important positions on the floor. Yet the Raptors continue to play hard – their last six losses were by a combined 30 points, including a pair of close games against the Boston Celtics.
Both O’Neal and Calderon are expected to play at some point this week. Meanwhile, there have been rumors about a deal involving O’Neal going to the Miami Heat in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. This would be an obvious salary dump on Miami’s part, with Toronto getting the more talented player in Marion as well as Banks’ albatross of a contract. This deal may or may not happen, but the fact that a trade is in the works should keep everyone wearing a Raptor uniform highly motivated – including O’Neal.
The Raptors have been suffering through these interesting times, but they should be stronger for it going forward. Andrea Bargnani (14.03 PER) has shown positive development after a poor sophomore season, Chris Bosh (23.33 PER) continues to play MVP-quality basketball, and the Toronto bench has gotten plenty of seasoning filling in for Calderon and O’Neal. Their upcoming schedule isn’t too daunting: Four of the next five games are against losing teams. It’s a prime opportunity for the “real” Raptors to show themselves, if they existed in the first place.
The next two weeks can be boring for fans and bettors as the NFL gets in every little bit of pregame hype for the Super Bowl. But the savvy bettors who aren't as easily distracted, there's opportunity aplenty on hardwood floors across the NBA landscape. After suffering a couple of injuries recently and playing relatively flat, the New Orleans Hornets appear to be perfect fade candidates over their next seven games.
I’ve often described the practice of betting on sports in terms of market investment. However, there is one major difference between the two: instant gratification. Frequent buying and selling of shares can be detrimental to your bankroll as you rack up the commission fees. In sports, the investment you make in a single-game matchup doubles or disappears overnight. Making multiple bets is essential to building a nest egg.
Short-term thinking applies even more to the NBA. This is a league of streaks; a team goes hot and cold against the betting odds and back again over the course of a season. Here are my bandwagon picks for fading and following specifically over the next two weeks.
Fade: New Orleans Hornets
The Hornets are buzzing right along at 9-4 SU since Christmas Day, but at just 6-7 ATS. They’ve got a fairly soft schedule over the next two weeks, with five of seven games at home and four against losing teams. That should keep the betting public relatively unaware of how flat New Orleans is compared to last year’s team. The reason to jump in now: injuries suffered by both Tyson Chandler and Hilton Armstrong on Monday versus the Pacers.
The 2007-08 Hornets had a consistent starting rotation and a number of secondary scoring options. This year’s model runs primarily on point guard Chris Paul (22.1 points, 11.8 assists per 40 minutes); nearly everyone else around him is playing at a lower level than last year, and the arrival of James Posey (42.2 percent from downtown) hasn’t been enough to make up the difference.
Losing both Chandler (ankle) and Armstrong (knee) at the 5-spot could be enough to throw the Hornets completely off track. Chandler (11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds/40) is the team’s starting center, a premium defender and a reliable source of points running the alley oop with Paul. Armstrong (8.72 PER) has been a disappointment in his three years with the team, but at least he’s a warm, 6-foot-11 body at a difficult position on the floor. Expect to see a whole lot of New Zealand native and noted 12th man Sean Marks over the next two weeks.
Follow: Toronto Raptors
Timing is everything when looking for a team that’s due for a hot streak. The Indiana Pacers have been a great “follow” team at 6-1 ATS since Mike Dunleavy got back into the lineup. But betting lines adjust – and hopping on board the Pacers bandwagon right now defies the very idea of buying low. The Toronto Raptors have lost six games in a row at 2-3-1 ATS. Perfect, in other words.
There’s no question Toronto’s one of the big busts of the 2008-09 campaign. However, that’s what happens when two of your three star players are hurt. Jose Calderon (hamstring) and Jermaine O’Neal (knee) have both been largely absent this month, leaving Toronto short of talent at the two most important positions on the floor. Yet the Raptors continue to play hard – their last six losses were by a combined 30 points, including a pair of close games against the Boston Celtics.
Both O’Neal and Calderon are expected to play at some point this week. Meanwhile, there have been rumors about a deal involving O’Neal going to the Miami Heat in exchange for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks. This would be an obvious salary dump on Miami’s part, with Toronto getting the more talented player in Marion as well as Banks’ albatross of a contract. This deal may or may not happen, but the fact that a trade is in the works should keep everyone wearing a Raptor uniform highly motivated – including O’Neal.
The Raptors have been suffering through these interesting times, but they should be stronger for it going forward. Andrea Bargnani (14.03 PER) has shown positive development after a poor sophomore season, Chris Bosh (23.33 PER) continues to play MVP-quality basketball, and the Toronto bench has gotten plenty of seasoning filling in for Calderon and O’Neal. Their upcoming schedule isn’t too daunting: Four of the next five games are against losing teams. It’s a prime opportunity for the “real” Raptors to show themselves, if they existed in the first place.