Just some random, late thoughts about gambling

[Ra77er]

I would venture that your trying to beat a number rather than predict the outcome. 99% of us are throwing darts and it can be difficult for most bettors to accept that. Degen forum only serves as interwebs bar if you will and its easy to get distracted. Nice writeup OP.

[Vinnie Paz]

Damn coin you still get blowjobs man????
to you

I probably only get some(sex) a handful of times a year nowadays

[No coincidences]

I would venture that your trying to beat a number rather than predict the outcome. 99% of us are throwing darts and it can be difficult for most bettors to accept that. Degen forum only serves as interwebs bar if you will and its easy to get distracted. Nice writeup OP.

Well said. It's kind of like the Bravos -- I started a thread re: their Monday game last night when they were +132. Now they're +112. It'd be stupid to play it at this point, yet a lot of times, I'll do it anyway.

[No coincidences]

Damn coin you still get blowjobs man????
to you

I probably only get some(sex) a handful of times a year nowadays

I have to get lucky. For the most part, I "enjoy" the "average" sex life of a married man -- in other words, I probably have a higher success rate gambling.

[Big Bear]

One more thing: I think the answer to sports gambling is to be very selective, picking and choosing your spots and betting big. Grinding for a "profit" is kind of for suckers, and I'm a sucker. With that being said, I don't have the whatever -- balls, confidence, stupidity or all three -- to isolate and put large amounts of money on games. I don't think I've ever had more than $4-500 on a single bet, and when I have, it's been more stress and hassle than it's worth. Yet that's probably the best avenue to take once you know how, where and why to pick and choose your spots. Go figure.

I couldn't agree with that more. Much easier said than done , but yeah you are definitely right about that.

And also we've had our differences of opinions and disputes on here and i have accused you of being good fade material but i have to admit you have been doing really well as of late.

i think you used to over analyze and start threads that didn't really have a point but now that you are tracking your plays and putting some of these thoughts into fruition its starting to pay off for ya.

Keep up the good work.

[opie1988]

Coin is sharp. No question.

This thread simply reaffirms that he's also sharp at life. He realizes that family comes first, and that providing for them is job #1. In my book, that's the definition of a guy that's got it figured out.

Well done, pal.

[Ralphie1412]

About 5 years ago I switched to the "betting big on one to two games" angle. If I make 8 plays its going to be a bloodbath. I can pick 2 games big and usually at worst go 1-1.

[TheMoneyShot]

Coin on a gambling "winning" high. Thoughts just poke out like an erect cok.

[Ra77er]

Offtopic but thanks for changing that ridiculous looking tigers avatar....thing looked like it was on bath salts.

[RudyRuetigger]

hey pal

quit writing so much

id consider sweeping a dirt road a better use of time

[I/O]

Of course I know. I know everything. I'm an ace reporter.

Glad you get it Giant

some internet keyboard jockeys here need explanations for everything

[I/O]

I have to get lucky. For the most part, I "enjoy" the "average" sex life of a married man -- in other words, I probably have a higher success rate gambling.

"Bet you" she's ecstatic about your gambling and all the time and energy that goes with it. Nothing like a person competing with this place for your attention.

[No coincidences]

Coin is sharp. No question.

This thread simply reaffirms that he's also sharp at life. He realizes that family comes first, and that providing for them is job #1. In my book, that's the definition of a guy that's got it figured out.

Well done, pal.

Thanks opie.

[No coincidences]

"Bet you" she's ecstatic about your gambling and all the time and energy that goes with it. Nothing like a person competing with this place for your attention.

Yeah, she loves it. LOL.

Doesn't complain about the cash, though.

[No coincidences]

hey pal

quit writing so much

id consider sweeping a dirt road a better use of time

Probably is. At least it's more productive.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Being competitive and gambling don't mix well.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Also Nocoin, I will analyze your post because it is quite revealing and contradictory. You seem confused. I want to know why. I will get to the bottom of this.

[Gee]

I don't know why I gamble either. Once upon a time, when it was new and interesting, it was a thrill. It was a fun adrenalin rush that you could get from sitting in front of the TV, waste a few hours and you could make money too. What could be better than that?

Then, I lost plenty and thought i'd figure out how to win and grind out a profit (which I do, but it is a grind with a lot of ups and downs). Now, the thrill is a dull itch that won't go away, but I can't stop scratching it. Sure, it's still fun to analyze games/lines and pick winners and make some change on the side, but the whole caper is -EV compared to what I'm missing out on from this full time, invasive hobby. Life is pretty short.

[Big Bear]

One more thing: I think the answer to sports gambling is to be very selective, picking and choosing your spots and betting big. Grinding for a "profit" is kind of for suckers, and I'm a sucker. With that being said, I don't have the whatever -- balls, confidence, stupidity or all three -- to isolate and put large amounts of money on games. I don't think I've ever had more than $4-500 on a single bet, and when I have, it's been more stress and hassle than it's worth. Yet that's probably the best avenue to take once you know how, where and why to pick and choose your spots. Go figure.

this is so true...

[Big Bear]

One more thing: I think the answer to sports gambling is to be very selective, picking and choosing your spots and betting big. Grinding for a "profit" is kind of for suckers, and I'm a sucker. With that being said, I don't have the whatever -- balls, confidence, stupidity or all three -- to isolate and put large amounts of money on games. I don't think I've ever had more than $4-500 on a single bet, and when I have, it's been more stress and hassle than it's worth. Yet that's probably the best avenue to take once you know how, where and why to pick and choose your spots. Go figure.

best post coin has ever made

[Big Bear]

I've been doing this for nearly four years now. I wandered into sports gambling after being big on almost everything competitive my whole life, having played in high school and college. I had a ton of success in fantasy sports from the time I was a senior in high school up until a few years ago, when I basically left that world for this one (for a reason I still can't quite define).

I'm mostly writing this because I've been on a nice run lately. I've been doing well in baseball, and I've been able to make three decent payout requests in the past few months. I'm by no means a big-time gambler; I do this for fun, not to put food on the table. Disposable income gambler. Still, the money has come in handy recently.

How do I feel about it? I don't know. I think and hope I've "turned a corner," at least in how I'm capping games, but I still have very little control and can't seem to get the quantity over quality down pat. I honestly seem to have more energy and drive when I'm losing, if that makes any sense. Winning recently has kind of mellowed me out a little. Again, not sure why but hard to explain. I'm definitely not as "satisfied," or happy, as I thought I would be from being relatively successful.

I've also tried to grasp the "why" of betting on sports. It's not legal, and to be honest, not really +EV either for a guy like me with a family and other obligations. I know it doesn't really seem like it, but I do spend a lot of time away from this board doing other things. It's just that when I'm on a computer, really SBR is the only page I even visit anymore other than reading my e-mail.

There is a legitimate and fundamental reason successful cappers spend a ton of time researching the games they put money on. We're trying to predict the unpredictable; to find angles that most fans and even the athletes themselves maybe haven't even thought about or don't know about yet. We're attempting to say what will happen in a world of uncertainty. That isn't really rational if you think about it, and most ex-athletes would probably agree (unless you have some sort of "in" with a team or player beforehand).

Anyway, I know this is a long post that isn't necessarily saying anything or going anywhere. I don't really know how I feel about doing this into the future, or how long I will even continue. I don't have a local, and it seems like the off-shore industry is always on the verge of the apocalypse. Someday, I'll probably re-gain my sanity and return to fantasy sports to pass the time.

I love crunching numbers and looking at stats. Always have. Believe it or not, I rarely -- if ever -- watch games I bet on, or even many games in general. For some reason, this bug has bit me and I can't seem to shake it. I love the action and the instant results, win or lose (I would say gratification, yet that's only when we win). Yet there has to be a masochistic side to us that likes to lose and chase just a little, right?

Rant over.

good stuff

[No coincidences]

good stuff

Since I made this post, I don't really have a dime to show for it. Haven't lost anything, but haven't gained anything either. I didn't even check the original post date, but I know I haven't had a cashout in a while. Again, my balance isn't significantly smaller, but I haven't profited from betting on MLB for a solid month. I'm still around that +60U mark for the year, which is where I was a while ago.

Waste of time and energy.

[Louisvillekid1]

i remember this thread...

[lyon804]

You desribed many people's journey in this venture. I have been doing this now for almost half my life and what I have learned in all that time is what you think you know and what other's say is generally wrong. You can win money doing this, but it will cost you something to do that. About my first 10 yrs of gambling I was a typical losing gambler. I'd win a little here and there and lose,lose,lose. I'd cashout time to time, but overall in the hole. I have tried almost everything imaginable to do this and I agree the "grinding" thing did not work for me. You have to know more about math than anything else and the probabiilities associated with odds of the outcome you are selecting for a particular event. I still do "grind" a little to stay in the game now, but what I am really doing is just staying sharp and waiting for opportunity. That rare case when you know the outcome before the game is played. Everybody here has that ability on some level or other and of course depending on skill level, experience or intuition have it more than other's. That's where profit come from. Winning is just that for me. I have learned I can't beat bookmaker's on a daily or routine venture. I am not that good or they are just to good and I can't beat the "hold" but what I can do is destroy them 25-30 times a year. Across the 3 major sports I make on average 600-800 bets a year that are just "fun" bets. I make most bets knowing that anything is liable to happen, but I feel good about my choices based on my capping ability but it is nothing more than a diversion from my daily routine in life. The 25-30 bets a year I am talking about are serious posistions. I expect to win and I am shocked when I do lose those. That's were my profit comes from. The rest of the time I am wasting time betting what I would call "sugar money" for me waiting on an opportunity I can pound. That is what works for me and I have not had a losing calander year in over 6 years now. Some years or better than other's and in years when the "sugar money" bets win I rake, but overall I am happy if they come out to around even. The money had to become the motivating factor for me to become successful at this and not the "gamble". I suppose other people have different ways to win at this but I have found what works for me. Patience is the key, admitting you are not as good as the bookmaker's, and money itself as the motivating factor would be the cliff notes version. Assuming the will and skill to be successful are there.

[Big Bear]

You desribed many people's journey in this venture. I have been doing this now for almost half my life and what I have learned in all that time is what you think you know and what other's say is generally wrong. You can win money doing this, but it will cost you something to do that. About my first 10 yrs of gambling I was a typical losing gambler. I'd win a little here and there and lose,lose,lose. I'd cashout time to time, but overall in the hole. I have tried almost everything imaginable to do this and I agree the "grinding" thing did not work for me. You have to know more about math than anything else and the probabiilities associated with odds of the outcome you are selecting for a particular event. I still do "grind" a little to stay in the game now, but what I am really doing is just staying sharp and waiting for opportunity. That rare case when you know the outcome before the game is played. Everybody here has that ability on some level or other and of course depending on skill level, experience or intuition have it more than other's. That's where profit come from. Winning is just that for me. I have learned I can't beat bookmaker's on a daily or routine venture. I am not that good or they are just to good and I can't beat the "hold" but what I can do is destroy them 25-30 times a year. Across the 3 major sports I make on average 600-800 bets a year that are just "fun" bets. I make most bets knowing that anything is liable to happen, but I feel good about my choices based on my capping ability but it is nothing more than a diversion from my daily routine in life. The 25-30 bets a year I am talking about are serious posistions. I expect to win and I am shocked when I do lose those. That's were my profit comes from. The rest of the time I am wasting time betting what I would call "sugar money" for me waiting on an opportunity I can pound. That is what works for me and I have not had a losing calander year in over 6 years now. Some years or better than other's and in years when the "sugar money" bets win I rake, but overall I am happy if they come out to around even. The money had to become the motivating factor for me to become successful at this and not the "gamble". I suppose other people have different ways to win at this but I have found what works for me. Patience is the key, admitting you are not as good as the bookmaker's, and money itself as the motivating factor would be the cliff notes version. Assuming the will and skill to be successful are there.

very sharp post

[pimike]

Coin is sharp. No question.

This thread simply reaffirms that he's also sharp at life. He realizes that family comes first, and that providing for them is job #1. In my book, that's the definition of a guy that's got it figured out.

Well done, pal.

Fully agree!!

[No coincidences]

You desribed many people's journey in this venture. I have been doing this now for almost half my life and what I have learned in all that time is what you think you know and what other's say is generally wrong. You can win money doing this, but it will cost you something to do that. About my first 10 yrs of gambling I was a typical losing gambler. I'd win a little here and there and lose,lose,lose. I'd cashout time to time, but overall in the hole. I have tried almost everything imaginable to do this and I agree the "grinding" thing did not work for me. You have to know more about math than anything else and the probabiilities associated with odds of the outcome you are selecting for a particular event. I still do "grind" a little to stay in the game now, but what I am really doing is just staying sharp and waiting for opportunity. That rare case when you know the outcome before the game is played. Everybody here has that ability on some level or other and of course depending on skill level, experience or intuition have it more than other's. That's where profit come from. Winning is just that for me. I have learned I can't beat bookmaker's on a daily or routine venture. I am not that good or they are just to good and I can't beat the "hold" but what I can do is destroy them 25-30 times a year. Across the 3 major sports I make on average 600-800 bets a year that are just "fun" bets. I make most bets knowing that anything is liable to happen, but I feel good about my choices based on my capping ability but it is nothing more than a diversion from my daily routine in life. The 25-30 bets a year I am talking about are serious posistions. I expect to win and I am shocked when I do lose those. That's were my profit comes from. The rest of the time I am wasting time betting what I would call "sugar money" for me waiting on an opportunity I can pound. That is what works for me and I have not had a losing calander year in over 6 years now. Some years or better than other's and in years when the "sugar money" bets win I rake, but overall I am happy if they come out to around even. The money had to become the motivating factor for me to become successful at this and not the "gamble". I suppose other people have different ways to win at this but I have found what works for me. Patience is the key, admitting you are not as good as the bookmaker's, and money itself as the motivating factor would be the cliff notes version. Assuming the will and skill to be successful are there.

I want to get to this point. I'm just not there yet -- even though I know I should and could be with some discipline. Great post as usual lyon.

[No coincidences]

Fully agree!!

Thanks mike. I have my moments -- both good and bad. The trick is to minimize the damage and know when the time is right to make a bigger bet. Problem is, I'm not a huge risk taker with my money and as I said before, I only gamble with disposable income. That makes it difficult to get "ahead" in the way that I've envisioned.

I admit it's not always easy with a family and a job; a lot of times I make degenerate bets that I know I didn't put the kind of time and effort into because I've had a long day at work or with the fam and just need an "out." I don't do drugs, don't smoke and I'm not a huge drinker. This is my "vice." The day I get it fully under control and master the art of the isolated bet instead of being a slave to the daily grind is the day I will feel free -- not really unlike the business world or anything else, for that matter.

[TheLock]

One more thing: I think the answer to sports gambling is to be very selective, picking and choosing your spots and betting big. Grinding for a "profit" is kind of for suckers, and I'm a sucker. With that being said, I don't have the whatever -- balls, confidence, stupidity or all three -- to isolate and put large amounts of money on games. I don't think I've ever had more than $4-500 on a single bet, and when I have, it's been more stress and hassle than it's worth. Yet that's probably the best avenue to take once you know how, where and why to pick and choose your spots. Go figure.

I haven't read the rest of the thread but it sounds like "picking your spots and betting big" are code words for terrible BR management.

[TwoWays]

Jerry is that you? Jerry McGuire?

[TwoWays]

Here's a musical accompaniment for this thread:

This seems like your style of music, nc.

[alukk]

Thank God JJ is back