The Dumb Money Theory

[fearless]

Some sports bettor I meant once told me this:

In virtually every game, there's a "dumb money" side and a "smart money" side. The public is usually on the "dumb money" side because the oddsmakers try to trap the public into that side. In other words, they set traps, the times when a team should be favored by 5 or 6 but they're favored by 1 or 2. The dumb money people eat up the traps all day.

What got me to thinking about this is the Cleveland pick line at Denver. According to espn.com's "streak for the cash" contest, 88% of the public is picking Cleveland to win. How can books be taking that kind of one-sided action unless they consider Cleveland to be the "dumb money" side (i.e. a trap)?

Or maybe the small bets are mostly on Cleveland and the big bets are mostly on Denver?

[fiveteamer]

do not over think things guy.

pick the team you like, let it ride.

You can talk yourself in to, or out of, any side.

[ryanspeer2001]

Its hard to argue keeping it a pick on paper when 86% of those "Streak for Cash" guys are picking it but that is only one group of people. Overall I'd bet the majority of people playing that contest are not betting heavy enough on real books to effect the line. Either way I like New Orleans in this one but I can't put myself up to bet against Cleveland in this one.

[Fiasco]

Denver is a very solid team and it is in denver...
nothing wrong with the line at all...

the hawks were what like 3 pt dogs to the cavs and the nuggets are stronger then the hawks right now. of course the public will bet the cavs but the line is fair... and will probably change

[strictlywinners]

This "Dumb Money" Theory is very true. I call them Shady lines, but it has got absolutely killed this year, almost all shady lines have won, the public has been a huge winner this year. My Local told me he might have to close up shop because he got absolutely killed.

[unit1884]

One thing you should know in the NBA and NFL is that there are NO "dumb lines", every line is on point and nearly a 50/50 draw, books dont care about public money, they know in the long run they will beat you.

Proof of this is reverse line movements. If the public is pounding team A, yet the line moves in favor of team A, public money means nothing.

[Fiasco]

accuscore may not be the greatest predictor of games out there but they have the nuggets at 96.6 and the cavs at 96.5... hints why the line was pk...

similar software the books use to help narrow a line down to a number... this game isn't "shady" or have any dumb money, unless you count the losing side after the game dumb money... then we all produce dumb money...

[mmike032]

I read an article about a linesman on the net. He said there is no such thing as trap bets and such, just paranoid gamblers that think this way to give themselves a reason for taking a particular side. They set the lines as close to the final number that they predict and let the betters decide which way the line goes.
Dont know how true this article is but makes sense to me