Falcons win BIG tonight

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  • possum11
    SBR High Roller
    • 10-20-11
    • 172

    #36
    the square side would be determined by the number of bettors on one side not the amount of money on one side, correct? sports insights is showing 56% of the bets on the saints, making that the square side. but if the money is really is really that far apart i don't understand why the line hasn't moved more towards ATL -4 or -4.5
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #37
      Originally posted by t-wizzle
      You heard it here first. Atlanta will steamroll the sorry-ass Saints tonight. New Orleans is done, cooked.

      So many squares taking the Saints because they are a desperate team and they "need" this win. Face it guys, they are not a good team. The defense is atrocious and the offense lacks some of the firepower it had last season. I can look down their schedule and say they have 2 quality wins this season. Sunday was their big chance to really get themselves back into contention and they came up short on their home field. Now they head to Atlanta in a major revenge game and I look for a performance from the Falcons much like the one the Saints put on them last year on Monday Night Football.

      Everything I see from the line indicates that Atlanta wins this game big. Falcons are -3 1H at the greek with the Saints being juiced heavily indicating to me that they will collect on the juice as Atlanta jumps out to a big lead early. Also at the Greek, Falcons -7.5 is a mere +165 and -10.5 is only +230.

      The Falcons will bury the Saints tonight and put them out of their misery.

      Falcons -3.5 -110 for 10 units
      hope you're right....i need to get goin already in the nfl.
      Comment
      • Dexter
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 12-24-08
        • 25829

        #38
        Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
        New Orleans$85,785

        Atlanta$226,670

        ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................
        interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

        were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
        Comment
        • MakeitRain
          SBR Sharp
          • 10-18-11
          • 335

          #39
          I love that most of you are saying the falcons. Took Saints +4 for 3 units.
          Comment
          • PAULYPOKER
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 12-06-08
            • 36581

            #40
            Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
            New Orleans$85,785

            Atlanta$226,670

            ATL looks to be the Square side according to beta consensus................


            Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
            Consensus Update

            New Orleans$97,094
            Atlanta$252,867
            Update as of 7:18PM
            New Orleans$127,400
            Atlanta$287,277
            Comment
            • Big Bear
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 11-01-11
              • 43253

              #41
              So i guess sharp money on the dirty birds
              Comment
              • PAULYPOKER
                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                • 12-06-08
                • 36581

                #42
                Originally posted by Dexter

                interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

                were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
                A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............
                Comment
                • paco
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 05-07-09
                  • 62873

                  #43
                  Gl twizz
                  Comment
                  • t-wizzle
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 12-18-09
                    • 38099

                    #44
                    Originally posted by paco
                    Gl twizz

                    Thanks paco.
                    Comment
                    • PAULYPOKER
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-06-08
                      • 36581

                      #45
                      Originally posted by Dexter

                      interesting - i never knew that $$$ on a play equated to "square/sharp" labels....

                      were you being serious pauly? i know you joke a lot...
                      For instance if you were a bookmaker and you had one sided or 70% action on the ATS of-3.5

                      What would you do to even the action out?

                      A.move the line a half point until the action evens

                      b.leave it where it is and hope it evens out

                      c.leave it where it is because you the book are betting on the underdog to cover
                      Comment
                      • suicidekings
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 03-23-09
                        • 9962

                        #46
                        Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                        Update as of 7:18PM
                        New Orleans$127,400
                        Atlanta$287,277
                        Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?
                        Comment
                        • PAULYPOKER
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-06-08
                          • 36581

                          #47
                          Originally posted by suicidekings

                          Are these figures including just the spread? Or the ML too?
                          Spread.............
                          Comment
                          • suicidekings
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 03-23-09
                            • 9962

                            #48
                            Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                            Spread.............
                            Probably have to correct it a bit to account for those opting for -3 (-135) instead of -3.5 (-110), but still very one-sided. And it certainly reinforces that the public betting % numbers that are listed everywhere do not tell the whole story. Money is what counts, not number of bets.
                            Comment
                            • coop
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 08-11-11
                              • 616

                              #49
                              where are these dollar amounts from...?
                              Comment
                              • PAULYPOKER
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-06-08
                                • 36581

                                #50
                                Originally posted by coop
                                where are these dollar amounts from...?
                                http://www.sbrforum.com/betting-odds/consensus/
                                Comment
                                • Lee Jones
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 12-14-08
                                  • 459

                                  #51
                                  Saints ML
                                  Comment
                                  • PAULYPOKER
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-06-08
                                    • 36581

                                    #52
                                    Looks like the books are calling for a 3 point ATL win....................
                                    Comment
                                    • Dexter
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 12-24-08
                                      • 25829

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                      A Square side is the side that is enticed or manipulated by a tasty line which oddsmakers provide.............
                                      thank you for that lesson paulypoker...
                                      Comment
                                      • paco
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 05-07-09
                                        • 62873

                                        #54
                                        None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
                                        Comment
                                        • Speedy88
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 03-19-11
                                          • 11717

                                          #55
                                          Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

                                          Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.
                                          Comment
                                          • double
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-09-12
                                            • 279

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by paco
                                            None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
                                            Surely Paco is on the Falcons. This confirms it.
                                            Comment
                                            • PAULYPOKER
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 12-06-08
                                              • 36581

                                              #57
                                              Originally posted by paco
                                              None of that matters cuz saints are lock of the year
                                              @+3.5 that is.....................
                                              Comment
                                              • t-wizzle
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-18-09
                                                • 38099

                                                #58
                                                Originally posted by Speedy88
                                                Good luck Wizzle. Your right on in your analysis. Saints are crap. Only reason why the Saints are still in the playoff discussion is because Brees covers up so many of the Saints' flaws. They can't stop anyone on defense, and they still struggle to run the ball.

                                                Agreed, if NO was going to make any type of playoff push, they needed to beat SF at home. They're pretty much dead, and if they lose tonight, put a fork in them.
                                                Thanks Speedy. Get the fork ready.
                                                Comment
                                                • Dexter
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 12-24-08
                                                  • 25829

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                  how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • t-wizzle
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 12-18-09
                                                    • 38099

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Dexter
                                                    how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
                                                    Those #'s are prob from 5Dimes. That's interesting, I've never seen that. Still probably won't use it, it just kinda complicates things I think.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • PAULYPOKER
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-06-08
                                                      • 36581

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by Dexter

                                                      how did you set that up on your live odds page that it gives you $$ wagered?
                                                      You can't unless you have them opened side by side in separate windows..............
                                                      Comment
                                                      • t-wizzle
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-18-09
                                                        • 38099

                                                        #62
                                                        Forgot to mention the fact that Saints are coming off a game against the Niners in which they were physically beat up. Now on a short week they have to play a huge game. New Orleans looks beat.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Bdolan33
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-02-12
                                                          • 1255

                                                          #63
                                                          Saints are up to +300 on live betting, wtf is going on
                                                          Comment
                                                          • t-wizzle
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 12-18-09
                                                            • 38099

                                                            #64
                                                            Keep throwin picks Brees.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Parligod
                                                              SBR Sharp
                                                              • 09-28-09
                                                              • 403

                                                              #65
                                                              I dropped on Saints ML just because I think they have a shot at winning here. They match up well vs. Falcons and excepting last week they're still playing much more composed than they started out this season. I also give some leeway given the 49ers are the best team right now imo. At this writing Brees just threw his 1st interception which is bad for me, so we'll see.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • AnthonyColes
                                                                SBR Rookie
                                                                • 11-07-12
                                                                • 25

                                                                #66
                                                                Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • paco
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 05-07-09
                                                                  • 62873

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Under is free money.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • t-wizzle
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 12-18-09
                                                                    • 38099

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Keep it going Atlanta.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • You mad bro
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-15-12
                                                                      • 16641

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by paco
                                                                      Under is free money.
                                                                      Nice call on te eagles monday night
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • You mad bro
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-15-12
                                                                        • 16641

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by AnthonyColes
                                                                        Falcons are over rated. When you guys gonna learn.
                                                                        Raping the saints tonight
                                                                        Comment
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