College hoops betting and the new 3-point line
College hoops betting and the new 3-point line
The NCAA men's basketball season is slowly cranking up with most teams getting their first taste of action this weekend. For handicappers the new campaign brings a new rule to the floor as the 3-point line has been moved back a foot to 20'-9", and the big question is how will that affect totals? Though the Under might seem the way to go, the increased distance could lead to higher totals in the end.
It’s time to separate the men from the women. The NCAA has moved the 3-point line back from 19 feet, nine inches to 20 feet, nine inches – for men’s basketball only. The women will continue to shoot from the old line, which means we’ll probably see a few missed calls early in the season from refs not used to seeing two (or more) 3-point lines painted on the floor.
Those calls are reviewable, so there shouldn’t be any discernable effect on the totals. But what happens with the line moving back? Should we be investing whatever’s left of our savings in the Under?
Here’s a stat that should change your mind. According to college hoops guru Ken Pomeroy, over the past five seasons (not including 2008 March Madness), shooting percentages peaked between 20 and 21 feet from the basket at just over 37 percent. And shot frequency peaked sharply at 22 feet away. The new line could end up causing scoring to rise, as teams virtually stop taking shots from just inside 20 feet.
But it’s a fruitless exercise to make a general assumption about the impact of the new rule across all the Division I teams. Some rely on the 3-point shot more than others. Some players will be fine with the new line; others are already on the outer fringes of their effective shooting range when they stray past 20 feet from the rim. And any student who has come to America from abroad will find very little difference from the new line and the international line of 20 feet, six inches.
Not to mention that there are further rules changes this year that will have some say in the final score, including a new goaltending rule (now called anytime after the ball hits the backboard) and a new way of assessing technical fouls that should change the number of ejections. It would have been even more difficult to isolate the effect of the new line had the NCAA also adopted a wider key as had been discussed.
Instead of looking for a nationwide trend, it would be more prudent to identify some of the players who will be most affected by the new 3-point line – generally speaking, forwards who stretch the floor by drifting out to the arc, as opposed to gunners who regularly let it fly from NBA range.
Pittsburgh’s Sam Young has been lumped into the former category. The 6-foot-6 power forward improved his 3-point shooting to 38.3 percent last year on 115 attempts. Coach Jamie Dixon has switched Young to small forward in practices to try to capitalize on that improvement. However, it will be a challenge for Young to make the transition from inside presence to perimeter threat. He played the 3-spot for a while last year, but was moved to the 4 because of tendinitis in his knees.
Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 5 Pittsburgh
Friday, Nov 14, 7:00 p.m. (ET)
Pittsburgh (27-10 SU, 18-14 ATS last year) opened as the third favorite to win the national championship at 8-1, but the Panthers have already dipped to 12-1 over questions about guard Levance Fields. The star pivot reinjured his previously broken left foot in August; his availability for Friday in unknown after participating in just three of the team’s 18 practice sessions. Swingman Gilbert Brown also missed practice last week with a stress fracture in his left foot.
Freshman guard Ashton Gibbs is a strong candidate to start in the backcourt Friday alongside JUCO transfer Jermaine Dixon. Pittsburgh will also lean heavily on first-year players Travon Woodall and Nasir Robinson. If Fields and Brown are out, that leaves only three Pitt players for the season opener with any Division I experience.
Fairleigh Dickinson went 8-20 SU (0-2 ATS) last year as a member of the Northeast. The Knights lost their first two non-con games in 2007 to St. Joseph’s (-17.5) and Siena (-11); they were 5-2 ATS over the previous three seasons on those rare occasions when they drew betting odds. This will be one of those occasions. Tip-off from the Petersen Events Center is 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
The NCAA men's basketball season is slowly cranking up with most teams getting their first taste of action this weekend. For handicappers the new campaign brings a new rule to the floor as the 3-point line has been moved back a foot to 20'-9", and the big question is how will that affect totals? Though the Under might seem the way to go, the increased distance could lead to higher totals in the end.
It’s time to separate the men from the women. The NCAA has moved the 3-point line back from 19 feet, nine inches to 20 feet, nine inches – for men’s basketball only. The women will continue to shoot from the old line, which means we’ll probably see a few missed calls early in the season from refs not used to seeing two (or more) 3-point lines painted on the floor.
Those calls are reviewable, so there shouldn’t be any discernable effect on the totals. But what happens with the line moving back? Should we be investing whatever’s left of our savings in the Under?
Here’s a stat that should change your mind. According to college hoops guru Ken Pomeroy, over the past five seasons (not including 2008 March Madness), shooting percentages peaked between 20 and 21 feet from the basket at just over 37 percent. And shot frequency peaked sharply at 22 feet away. The new line could end up causing scoring to rise, as teams virtually stop taking shots from just inside 20 feet.
But it’s a fruitless exercise to make a general assumption about the impact of the new rule across all the Division I teams. Some rely on the 3-point shot more than others. Some players will be fine with the new line; others are already on the outer fringes of their effective shooting range when they stray past 20 feet from the rim. And any student who has come to America from abroad will find very little difference from the new line and the international line of 20 feet, six inches.
Not to mention that there are further rules changes this year that will have some say in the final score, including a new goaltending rule (now called anytime after the ball hits the backboard) and a new way of assessing technical fouls that should change the number of ejections. It would have been even more difficult to isolate the effect of the new line had the NCAA also adopted a wider key as had been discussed.
Instead of looking for a nationwide trend, it would be more prudent to identify some of the players who will be most affected by the new 3-point line – generally speaking, forwards who stretch the floor by drifting out to the arc, as opposed to gunners who regularly let it fly from NBA range.
Pittsburgh’s Sam Young has been lumped into the former category. The 6-foot-6 power forward improved his 3-point shooting to 38.3 percent last year on 115 attempts. Coach Jamie Dixon has switched Young to small forward in practices to try to capitalize on that improvement. However, it will be a challenge for Young to make the transition from inside presence to perimeter threat. He played the 3-spot for a while last year, but was moved to the 4 because of tendinitis in his knees.
Fairleigh Dickinson at No. 5 Pittsburgh
Friday, Nov 14, 7:00 p.m. (ET)
Pittsburgh (27-10 SU, 18-14 ATS last year) opened as the third favorite to win the national championship at 8-1, but the Panthers have already dipped to 12-1 over questions about guard Levance Fields. The star pivot reinjured his previously broken left foot in August; his availability for Friday in unknown after participating in just three of the team’s 18 practice sessions. Swingman Gilbert Brown also missed practice last week with a stress fracture in his left foot.
Freshman guard Ashton Gibbs is a strong candidate to start in the backcourt Friday alongside JUCO transfer Jermaine Dixon. Pittsburgh will also lean heavily on first-year players Travon Woodall and Nasir Robinson. If Fields and Brown are out, that leaves only three Pitt players for the season opener with any Division I experience.
Fairleigh Dickinson went 8-20 SU (0-2 ATS) last year as a member of the Northeast. The Knights lost their first two non-con games in 2007 to St. Joseph’s (-17.5) and Siena (-11); they were 5-2 ATS over the previous three seasons on those rare occasions when they drew betting odds. This will be one of those occasions. Tip-off from the Petersen Events Center is 7:00 p.m. Eastern.