The Play: Ul Lafayette vs. North Texas

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  • Marigold HD
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-03-07
    • 5053

    #491
    I even called in sick and probably risked my job with this fcuking play.......
    Comment
    • Urbanwildlife
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-06-11
      • 5958

      #492
      Why it happens I do not know, but it seems like every time a person makes a large wager outside of what they normally play, they lose. It is crazy, but it seems to happen more times than not, and I have walked in those shoes. I can feel your pain, but after a couple of days of feeling depressed, you will rebound, and come back strong.
      Best of luck to you!

      Example, but it happened to me: Last year on the Monday night football game between Baltimore and Jacksonville, I went for broke, betting my entire winnings from the weekend, and then some, ($8500.00 total bet) on Baltimore thinking there was no way they would not cover, and lo and behold, they ended up the first half with minus yardage, and I lost the bet on the game. Several other times last year I ended up betting quite a bit more than I normally do, and lost. It is crazy how it works.
      Comment
      • Marigold HD
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-03-07
        • 5053

        #493
        Originally posted by in2thethickofit
        man, I'm sorry this didn't go your way...I lost 5x that once in the matter of an hour with what I thought was "guaranteed"...you will be the wiser for it, trust me. Get 'em next time.
        Thanks...I know man...It's not your fault. You're probably young and have alot to live for.....I'm 55 and this was my big bang please god help me live good for the next 6 months play.
        Comment
        • Marigold HD
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 09-03-07
          • 5053

          #494
          Originally posted by Urbanwildlife
          Why it happens I do not know, but it seems like every time a person makes a large wager outside of what they normally play, they lose. It is crazy but it seems to happen more times than not, and I have walked in those shoes. I can feel your pain, but after a couple of days of feeling depressed, you will rebound, and come back strong.
          Best of luck to you!
          Thank you for the kind words.....I'll try
          Comment
          • paranoyd androyd
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 10-01-11
            • 6459

            #495
            Originally posted by Marigold HD
            I risked $4800......because the OP made this play seem guaranteed.....I left town last weekend for Seattle and watched USC and New England play the home teams and won 8 straight plays.....I come home a winner and blow it all on this fcuking play. It'll take me 3 years to make $5000 again.....
            how much do you normally bet per game? why risk your whole bank roll on a meaningless tuesday sunbelt game after winning 8 straight?
            Comment
            • ttrace35
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-30-10
              • 10828

              #496
              Originally posted by marcojuiceman
              -3 1/2 UL Lafayette

              Cajun Back Up QB>>> Cajuns Terrance Broadway completing 45-of-77 passes for 612 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception

              The Write Up:
              The first thing to look at is how efficient each team is when it comes to total yards and average scoring. North Texas averages 380 yards of offense each game, but only has an average score of 19.5. This means they are below average offensively and do not see the end zone very often. On the other hand, UL-Lafayette is at the median of college football YPG (yards per game), averaging 31 more than UNT, but they average twice as many points, at 38 a game. This means ULL is far more efficient at reaching the end zone than North Texas. Not only are they more efficient, but ULL averages 5.0 YPR (yards per run) while UNT gives up 5.2 YPR, which means the Ragin Cajuns will win the battle in the trenches and keep the pressure off their quarterback. Another factor to look at is turnovers. While both teams are on the positive side of turnovers this season, North Texas is only at +4, while UL-Lafayette is at +8. Once again, an underlooked statistic that ULL is twice as good as UNT in. While being evenly matched on paper, UL-Lafayette outscores their opponents on average 38-24, while UNT is outscored by their opponents on average 19-26. Also, ULL has won five years in a row against UNT, including three in a row in Denton, so home field advantage is a non-issue here.

              While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points,
              a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.

              ADDED SMALL BONUS; CAJUNS OVER 30pts for TEAM TOTAL

              This looks like a copy and paste from some Vegas bookie's website, meant to lure in squares. A GIFT TO THE BETTING WORLD. Dead give away.
              Comment
              • CanuckG
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 12-23-10
                • 21978

                #497
                Originally posted by BIGDAY
                Agreed. Easy Money IMO.
                Hope MMAChicka faded you
                Comment
                • House
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-04-11
                  • 7088

                  #498
                  Thats exactly what I was thinking ttrace....a lot of that going on here now .
                  Comment
                  • CanuckG
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 12-23-10
                    • 21978

                    #499
                    Originally posted by ttrace35
                    This looks like a copy and paste from some Vegas bookie's website, meant to lure in squares. A GIFT TO THE BETTING WORLD. Dead give away.
                    Kinda is....3rd paragraph

                    Discover Stock Examiner, the AI-powered chatbot delivering instant, interactive stock charts, real-time financials, breaking news, stock screeners, and more—all in one seamless experience.


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                    Eric Folmer is a sports enthusiast with almost 20 years of sports handicapping experience. Since age 13, Eric started picking NFL and college football games against the spread, and over the years, has continually developed in the world of sports handicapping.

                    Square
                    Comment
                    • Inkwell77
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-03-11
                      • 3227

                      #500
                      Originally posted by turbozed
                      Let's face it. There's no "public" for this game. There's only a population of degens who are looking for a chance to bet and base their decision on cursory examinations or are following some other degen.

                      Has anyone even watched these two teams play?


                      And a large percentage of the people betting this game had the exact same logic as the original poster. Trust me, you want to be in the minority. Look at covers consensus.... 68.3% of the people according to the consensus were on Lafayette.....
                      Comment
                      • ttrace35
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 09-30-10
                        • 10828

                        #501
                        Unrealz. What a clown. Lot of copy and paste bitches around here I see. Unrealz. You buried a lot of dudes tonite Juiceman.
                        Comment
                        • PAULYPOKER
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 12-06-08
                          • 36581

                          #502
                          Originally posted by Marigold HD

                          OP made this thread and play seem so easy......Risked entire bankroll on -5
                          None of you fcuks know how to cap.....Bunch of fcuking teenagers playing with $10.
                          Not to be rude with all due respect,

                          you trusted a complete stranger (on an internet gambling forum too boot) with your entire bankroll,

                          now who's fault is that?
                          Comment
                          • ttrace35
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 09-30-10
                            • 10828

                            #503
                            Originally posted by Inkwell77


                            And a large percentage of the people betting this game had the exact same logic as the original poster. Trust me, you want to be in the minority. Look at covers consensus.... 68.3% of the people according to the consensus were on Lafayette.....
                            Wasnt even his logic.
                            Comment
                            • Marigold HD
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 09-03-07
                              • 5053

                              #504
                              Originally posted by House
                              Thats exactly what I was thinking ttrace....a lot of that going on here now .
                              So do you think I was played and sucked in for UTL
                              Comment
                              • Marigold HD
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 09-03-07
                                • 5053

                                #505
                                Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                Not to be rude with all due respect,

                                you trusted a complete stranger (on an internet gambling forum too boot) with your entire bankroll,

                                now who's fault is that?
                                Yes sir it's mine.....but I got sucked in badly. Fcuk me forever
                                Comment
                                • CapperGuy
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 03-05-11
                                  • 492

                                  #506
                                  Originally posted by Urbanwildlife
                                  Thank you and it is much appreciated!
                                  No problem! Great job. GL on the rest of your plays this week/weekend.
                                  Comment
                                  • ttrace35
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 09-30-10
                                    • 10828

                                    #507
                                    Originally posted by Marigold HD
                                    So do you think I was played and sucked in for UTL
                                    copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.
                                    Comment
                                    • Marigold HD
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 09-03-07
                                      • 5053

                                      #508
                                      Originally posted by ttrace35
                                      copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.
                                      I could have used you earlier Trace...lol....I know you've been around for awhile....I know I lost it all tonight, but we need you to help shut down these kinds of retards who suck people in...You should be a mod.
                                      Comment
                                      • Marigold HD
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 09-03-07
                                        • 5053

                                        #509
                                        I promised my 3 kids that I would stop gambling and I did.....They understand that when I rarely leave town to watch a sporting event, I will make a wager......I'm a complete failure.

                                        That's enough of my crying...
                                        I wish you all millions in the futre and good luck!!!!!!
                                        Comment
                                        • PAULYPOKER
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 12-06-08
                                          • 36581

                                          #510
                                          Originally posted by Justin3587

                                          I have from a pretty good source that 69% of the public is on ULL
                                          Rule of thumb:

                                          the betting public is on the Favorite over 95% of the time,

                                          the public bets on the underdogs 5% of the time which are the "obvious ones"...............
                                          Comment
                                          • in2thethickofit
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-26-09
                                            • 2622

                                            #511
                                            Originally posted by Marigold HD
                                            Thanks...I know man...It's not your fault. You're probably young and have alot to live for.....I'm 55 and this was my big bang please god help me live good for the next 6 months play.
                                            Actually we are near the same age. Wish I was young. I have learned to gather data and make informed decisions. Personally, I have made more money betting halftime lines than anything else. I don't have the patience to struggle through a whole game...I like watching the first half and betting the second...a lot of these guys that cap the game are very smart, don't get me wrong. I like to see where the momentum lies along with my own set of rules. I am not "sharp" and I have lost a lot too. I wish you well and believe me, you will forget this someday soon, thats how we ALL are. GL 2 U...
                                            Comment
                                            • Ghenghis Kahn
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-02-12
                                              • 19734

                                              #512
                                              Originally posted by Marigold HD
                                              OP made this thread and play seem so easy......Risked entire bankroll on -5
                                              None of you fcuks know how to cap.....Bunch of fcuking teenagers playing with $10.
                                              none of us know how to cap but you are blaming this thread for your loss?

                                              go fukk yourself!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-02-12
                                                • 19734

                                                #513
                                                Originally posted by Marigold HD
                                                I promised my 3 kids that I would stop gambling and I did.....They understand that when I rarely leave town to watch a sporting event, I will make a wager......I'm a complete failure.

                                                That's enough of my crying...
                                                I wish you all millions in the futre and good luck!!!!!!
                                                i feel bad for your kids...
                                                Comment
                                                • PAYTON20
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 02-02-10
                                                  • 5217

                                                  #514
                                                  Originally posted by ttrace35
                                                  copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.
                                                  hahahaha wow
                                                  Comment
                                                  • PAYTON20
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 02-02-10
                                                    • 5217

                                                    #515
                                                    Great find Nucker



                                                    ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal
                                                    Comment
                                                    • tokio
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 03-30-10
                                                      • 2150

                                                      #516
                                                      At least the first half cashed.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ColdBeerHere
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 03-25-11
                                                        • 3626

                                                        #517
                                                        lol newb
                                                        Comment
                                                        • sunzal
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 10-13-10
                                                          • 1245

                                                          #518
                                                          This moron bet his whole bankroll on a Tuesday night game and tries to blame the thread....Like i said before the game- as many others did too- that was an absolutely terrible write-up....essentially the write-up said take the team with the higher points per game average and they will win...wow....and this dude thought that was a convincing write-up??? wow....I wish sportsbetting was like poker and I could just play one-on-one against guys like this
                                                          Comment
                                                          • marcojuiceman
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-25-11
                                                            • 2870

                                                            #519
                                                            Originally posted by ttrace35
                                                            Unrealz. What a clown. Lot of copy and paste bitches around here I see. Unrealz. You buried a lot of dudes tonite Juiceman.
                                                            Actually My $3000 to $127,200 start of the College Football Season speaks for itself.. I'm not your small time Bettor Please Check my Archives..
                                                            When my threads read Big Money Play" or Bury Your Bookie-(haven't lost one on those yet) that means Im betting $10,000 max on 3 books.. This $1000 lost is nothing
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jjgold
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 07-20-05
                                                              • 388179

                                                              #520
                                                              I am not reading this thread although Marco we enjoy your contributions here and picks

                                                              Best of luck Son
                                                              Comment
                                                              • marcojuiceman
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-25-11
                                                                • 2870

                                                                #521
                                                                Originally posted by PAYTON20
                                                                Great find Nucker



                                                                ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal
                                                                They buried themselves I didnt tell no one how many units to bet...
                                                                Comment
                                                                • firedawg
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 10-08-08
                                                                  • 39219

                                                                  #522
                                                                  Marcolanders
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • marcojuiceman
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-25-11
                                                                    • 2870

                                                                    #523
                                                                    But O" Well Next Game
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • bane
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 09-14-12
                                                                      • 630

                                                                      #524
                                                                      I'm a noob & learned my first week on the board to ignore or fade any posts w/ that ridiculous lock symbol.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ttrace35
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 09-30-10
                                                                        • 10828

                                                                        #525
                                                                        Originally posted by PAYTON20
                                                                        Great find Nucker



                                                                        ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal
                                                                        Comment
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