The Play: Ul Lafayette vs. North Texas

[Marigold HD]

I even called in sick and probably risked my job with this fcuking play.......

[Urbanwildlife]

Why it happens I do not know, but it seems like every time a person makes a large wager outside of what they normally play, they lose. It is crazy, but it seems to happen more times than not, and I have walked in those shoes. I can feel your pain, but after a couple of days of feeling depressed, you will rebound, and come back strong.
Best of luck to you!

Example, but it happened to me: Last year on the Monday night football game between Baltimore and Jacksonville, I went for broke, betting my entire winnings from the weekend, and then some, ($8500.00 total bet) on Baltimore thinking there was no way they would not cover, and lo and behold, they ended up the first half with minus yardage, and I lost the bet on the game. Several other times last year I ended up betting quite a bit more than I normally do, and lost. It is crazy how it works.

[Marigold HD]

man, I'm sorry this didn't go your way...I lost 5x that once in the matter of an hour with what I thought was "guaranteed"...you will be the wiser for it, trust me. Get 'em next time.

Thanks...I know man...It's not your fault. You're probably young and have alot to live for.....I'm 55 and this was my big bang please god help me live good for the next 6 months play.

[Marigold HD]

Why it happens I do not know, but it seems like every time a person makes a large wager outside of what they normally play, they lose. It is crazy but it seems to happen more times than not, and I have walked in those shoes. I can feel your pain, but after a couple of days of feeling depressed, you will rebound, and come back strong.
Best of luck to you!

Thank you for the kind words.....I'll try

[paranoyd androyd]

I risked $4800......because the OP made this play seem guaranteed.....I left town last weekend for Seattle and watched USC and New England play the home teams and won 8 straight plays.....I come home a winner and blow it all on this fcuking play. It'll take me 3 years to make $5000 again.....

how much do you normally bet per game? why risk your whole bank roll on a meaningless tuesday sunbelt game after winning 8 straight?

[ttrace35]

-3 1/2 UL Lafayette

Cajun Back Up QB>>> Cajuns Terrance Broadway completing 45-of-77 passes for 612 yards with four touchdowns and only one interception

The Write Up:
The first thing to look at is how efficient each team is when it comes to total yards and average scoring. North Texas averages 380 yards of offense each game, but only has an average score of 19.5. This means they are below average offensively and do not see the end zone very often. On the other hand, UL-Lafayette is at the median of college football YPG (yards per game), averaging 31 more than UNT, but they average twice as many points, at 38 a game. This means ULL is far more efficient at reaching the end zone than North Texas. Not only are they more efficient, but ULL averages 5.0 YPR (yards per run) while UNT gives up 5.2 YPR, which means the Ragin Cajuns will win the battle in the trenches and keep the pressure off their quarterback. Another factor to look at is turnovers. While both teams are on the positive side of turnovers this season, North Texas is only at +4, while UL-Lafayette is at +8. Once again, an underlooked statistic that ULL is twice as good as UNT in. While being evenly matched on paper, UL-Lafayette outscores their opponents on average 38-24, while UNT is outscored by their opponents on average 19-26. Also, ULL has won five years in a row against UNT, including three in a row in Denton, so home field advantage is a non-issue here.

While the betting public is looking at these two teams as being marginally equal and taking the home team getting points, a sharper bettor will look at the factors overlooked by the public and see the value that others do not see. When analyzed a little bit more, the sharp bet is clearly on the favorite here. Add in the fact that teams favored by 3 1/2 points in college football this season are hitting at 73% and this is a Tuesday night gift for the betting world.

ADDED SMALL BONUS; CAJUNS OVER 30pts for TEAM TOTAL

This looks like a copy and paste from some Vegas bookie's website, meant to lure in squares. A GIFT TO THE BETTING WORLD. Dead give away.

[CanuckG]

Agreed. Easy Money IMO.

Hope MMAChicka faded you

[House]

Thats exactly what I was thinking ttrace....a lot of that going on here now .

[CanuckG]

This looks like a copy and paste from some Vegas bookie's website, meant to lure in squares. A GIFT TO THE BETTING WORLD. Dead give away.

Kinda is....3rd paragraph

http://www.examiner.com/article/tuesday-nights-bring-big-profits

Eric Folmer, Sports Betting Examiner

Eric Folmer is a sports enthusiast with almost 20 years of sports handicapping experience. Since age 13, Eric started picking NFL and college football games against the spread, and over the years, has continually developed in the world of sports handicapping.

Square

[Inkwell77]

Let's face it. There's no "public" for this game. There's only a population of degens who are looking for a chance to bet and base their decision on cursory examinations or are following some other degen.

Has anyone even watched these two teams play?

And a large percentage of the people betting this game had the exact same logic as the original poster. Trust me, you want to be in the minority. Look at covers consensus.... 68.3% of the people according to the consensus were on Lafayette.....

[ttrace35]

Unrealz. What a clown. Lot of copy and paste bitches around here I see. Unrealz. You buried a lot of dudes tonite Juiceman.

[PAULYPOKER]

OP made this thread and play seem so easy......Risked entire bankroll on -5
None of you fcuks know how to cap.....Bunch of fcuking teenagers playing with $10.

Not to be rude with all due respect,

you trusted a complete stranger (on an internet gambling forum too boot) with your entire bankroll,

now who's fault is that?

[ttrace35]

And a large percentage of the people betting this game had the exact same logic as the original poster. Trust me, you want to be in the minority. Look at covers consensus.... 68.3% of the people according to the consensus were on Lafayette.....

Wasnt even his logic.

[Marigold HD]

Thats exactly what I was thinking ttrace....a lot of that going on here now .

So do you think I was played and sucked in for UTL

[Marigold HD]

Not to be rude with all due respect,

you trusted a complete stranger (on an internet gambling forum too boot) with your entire bankroll,

now who's fault is that?

Yes sir it's mine.....but I got sucked in badly. Fcuk me forever

[CapperGuy]

Thank you and it is much appreciated!

No problem! Great job. GL on the rest of your plays this week/weekend.

[ttrace35]

So do you think I was played and sucked in for UTL

copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.

[Marigold HD]

copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.

I could have used you earlier Trace...lol....I know you've been around for awhile....I know I lost it all tonight, but we need you to help shut down these kinds of retards who suck people in...You should be a mod.

[Marigold HD]

I promised my 3 kids that I would stop gambling and I did.....They understand that when I rarely leave town to watch a sporting event, I will make a wager......I'm a complete failure.

That's enough of my crying...
I wish you all millions in the futre and good luck!!!!!!

[PAULYPOKER]

I have from a pretty good source that 69% of the public is on ULL

Rule of thumb:

the betting public is on the Favorite over 95% of the time,

the public bets on the underdogs 5% of the time which are the "obvious ones"...............

[in2thethickofit]

Thanks...I know man...It's not your fault. You're probably young and have alot to live for.....I'm 55 and this was my big bang please god help me live good for the next 6 months play.

Actually we are near the same age. Wish I was young. I have learned to gather data and make informed decisions. Personally, I have made more money betting halftime lines than anything else. I don't have the patience to struggle through a whole game...I like watching the first half and betting the second...a lot of these guys that cap the game are very smart, don't get me wrong. I like to see where the momentum lies along with my own set of rules. I am not "sharp" and I have lost a lot too. I wish you well and believe me, you will forget this someday soon, thats how we ALL are. GL 2 U...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

OP made this thread and play seem so easy......Risked entire bankroll on -5
None of you fcuks know how to cap.....Bunch of fcuking teenagers playing with $10.

none of us know how to cap but you are blaming this thread for your loss?

go fukk yourself!!!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

I promised my 3 kids that I would stop gambling and I did.....They understand that when I rarely leave town to watch a sporting event, I will make a wager......I'm a complete failure.

That's enough of my crying...
I wish you all millions in the futre and good luck!!!!!!

i feel bad for your kids...

[PAYTON20]

copy and paste from Eric Folmer I called it.

hahahaha wow

[PAYTON20]

Great find Nucker



ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal

[tokio]

At least the first half cashed.

[ColdBeerHere]

lol newb

[sunzal]

This moron bet his whole bankroll on a Tuesday night game and tries to blame the thread....Like i said before the game- as many others did too- that was an absolutely terrible write-up....essentially the write-up said take the team with the higher points per game average and they will win...wow....and this dude thought that was a convincing write-up??? wow....I wish sportsbetting was like poker and I could just play one-on-one against guys like this

[marcojuiceman]

Unrealz. What a clown. Lot of copy and paste bitches around here I see. Unrealz. You buried a lot of dudes tonite Juiceman.

Actually My $3000 to $127,200 start of the College Football Season speaks for itself.. I'm not your small time Bettor Please Check my Archives..
When my threads read Big Money Play" or Bury Your Bookie-(haven't lost one on those yet) that means Im betting $10,000 max on 3 books.. This $1000 lost is nothing

[jjgold]

I am not reading this thread although Marco we enjoy your contributions here and picks

Best of luck Son

[marcojuiceman]

Great find Nucker



ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal

They buried themselves I didnt tell no one how many units to bet...

[firedawg]

Marcolanders

[marcojuiceman]

But O" Well Next Game

[bane]

I'm a noob & learned my first week on the board to ignore or fade any posts w/ that ridiculous lock symbol.

[ttrace35]

Great find Nucker



ULL backers got fukkin Folmered by marcojuiceman unreal