NFL as consistent as ever

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by bruins35

ok public bets on the best teams and they lose most of the time.so the nfl is fixed?

Many sports leagues are corrupt. Sports is a business its not real compeition its a moneygrab wake up.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:02 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Just so we're clear... What is your point exactly?

That when the top handful of public games hit in college, they tend to not hit the next day in pros?

It'd be hard to argue otherwise -- especially when it comes to the NFL. Combined with the fact that it was a good week overall for the public last week...doesn't surprise me that the books did well early. That's all.

Joe D. 416 · 10-07-12, 04:03 PM

Works for me, brotha.

t-wizzle · 10-07-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

It'd be hard to argue otherwise -- especially when it comes to the NFL. Combined with the fact that it was a good week overall for the public last week...doesn't surprise me that the books did well early. That's all.

Fair enough but I disagree with your premise. I don't believe there is a correlation.

raydog · 10-07-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by ssmann

so is fading the public a reliable method?

contrarian betting has done quite well in the nfl this year...

nocoin thinks some free % site is accurate...jaysus fukking christ kid

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

The sharps are the books. All these sharps that the books talk about are made up. They are trying to trick you guy there aren't as many "sharps" as they try to make it seem like their are.

Do you think the books liked handing out all the WVU spread and ML bets that cashed last night? That was a huge public cash grab.

That was my point. Side with the Brocks of the world today at your own peril.

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:06 PM

They will hit at a lower percentage than the betting line represents so it really doesn't matter. Of course they are going to hit sometimes.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by raydog

nocoin thinks some free % site is accurate...jaysus fukking christ kid

Never said it was entirely accurate -- far from it. But it does give a halfway decent indication of who the public likes.

Do you know how many buddies of mine see what the "No. 1 bet" is at their sportsbook and tail accordingly? It's not as if these sites are trying to steer you away from the "top bets" of the day. Most people see 90% on Team A and think that's why they should back Team A.

t-wizzle · 10-07-12, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Do you think the books liked handing out all the WVU spread and ML bets that cashed last night? That was a huge public cash grab.

That was my point. Side with the Brocks of the world today at your own peril.

I think more people probably took WVU but I doubt the books cared either way. It was clear that sharp money was on Texas. Sometimes sharps lose no coin.

Grits n' Gravy · 10-07-12, 04:07 PM

The op is so out of touch with reality with betting based off % of action. The info you are seeing is not real accurate. They have no obligation to provide it and most of it is reported by a low level supervisor.

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by raydog

contrarian betting has done quite well in the nfl this year...

nocoin thinks some free % site is accurate...jaysus fukking christ kid

Sam Odom · 10-07-12, 04:09 PM

N C

Tail Sammy... you will get rich , have plenty of HOs and drink Cristal by the case

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Fair enough but I disagree with your premise. I don't believe there is a correlation.

So you think it's just a coincidence?

Books know the NFL is the most popular sport in the world to bet. They set lines where they know they can draw in huge public action, then drop the hammer accordingly. The public gets totally mind-fvcked by the NFL, yet they're always back the next week, betting a ton of money on the Packers ML like Broke Landers and Goat Mush. Spread shot, ML shot, teasers shot, public broke. Every guy in the world who was dancing in the streets over his WVU ML cash last night just gave it all back and then some this morning in the NFL.

I'm not saying the public never wins in the NFL over isolated stretches, but in the end, this is the sport that the books get their payback. Every time. Every year.

BlitzTheBooks · 10-07-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Early games only.

Ahh. Gotcha. After I wrote that, saw you're using the same site as me.

DudleyDawson · 10-07-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

The op is so out of touch with reality with betting based off % of action. The info you are seeing is not real accurate. They have no obligation to provide it and most of it is reported by a low level supervisor.

OP is one of the most clueless on this site of over 300,000 registered users...always kind of thought he's a stunt by SBR for entertainment.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

I think more people probably took WVU but I doubt the books cared either way. It was clear that sharp money was on Texas. Sometimes sharps lose no coin.

Where did I say otherwise?

Long term, though, books would rather take the quantity of public money vs. the quality of sharp money.

bruins35 · 10-07-12, 04:12 PM

It seems all the big games like monday night football should be public faded .week in week out from what i see

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:13 PM

What quality of sharp money? What sharps? You're giving "sharps" too much credibility. They're almost non existant.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Grits n' Gravy

The op is so out of touch with reality with betting based off % of action. The info you are seeing is not real accurate. They have no obligation to provide it and most of it is reported by a low level supervisor.

Again, these books entice average bettors to tail whatever the "top plays" are on their sites.

I don't make bets based solely on the % of public action, but it is worth taking into consideration because most people don't think of these % as a tool to fade, but rather, a tool to follow.

If you can provide a more accurate read on what the top early NFL plays were vs. what I posted, I'd love to see it.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

What quality of sharp money? What sharps? You're giving "sharps" too much credibility. There almost non existant.

So when WVU goes from +217 to +278 at Pinny when the public is hammering the Mountaineers, you're saying there isn't sharp money coming in on Texas?

zacharyj53 · 10-07-12, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by ApricotSinner32

You aren't an egomaniac? You make threads everytime whatever you think was going to happen happens. You are looking for a pat on the back. From me you're going to get a go fuk your self. Anyone who pays attention knows you aren't giving out profitable information.

100% on point, the guy is a total chode.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:18 PM

Originally posted by zacharyj53

100% on point, the guy is a total chode.

I knew it wouldn't be long before one of my other stalkers showed up.

You and patty need to get a room. Something tells me you'd enjoy it -- that obsessing over my posts isn't the only thing you two have in common.

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:18 PM

I'm not saying it's not possible but it could be other reasons why the line moved. I can't really give much of an opinion for that game as I didn't watch the college market at all yesterday. No idea.

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:19 PM

Sing it nocoin

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:23 PM

Sing it patty

ssmann · 10-07-12, 04:26 PM

nice thread nocoin, good info

ApricotSinner32 · 10-07-12, 04:26 PM

BlitzTheBooks · 10-07-12, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Never said it was entirely accurate -- far from it. But it does give a halfway decent indication of who the public likes.

Do you know how many buddies of mine see what the "No. 1 bet" is at their sportsbook and tail accordingly? It's not as if these sites are trying to steer you away from the "top bets" of the day. Most people see 90% on Team A and think that's why they should back Team A.

Ain't that the truth. Time and time again I sit in the books and listen to guys roll in fresh off the plane and flat square pick a team b/c of either their name or the fact that all their buddies and ESPN said that team should win.

zacharyj53 · 10-07-12, 04:28 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I knew it wouldn't be long before one of my other stalkers showed up.

You and patty need to get a room. Something tells me you'd enjoy it -- that obsessing over my posts isn't the only thing you two have in common.

I hardly stalk you, if you mean I notice 40,000 posts in 2 years, why yes I will see those threads. I don't jump in many of your threads, but bro come the hell on, you post way too much. You have no life and you are betting like 20 bucks on games. GTFO trying to act so smart on here, you are a douche.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:30 PM

Originally posted by ssmann

nice thread nocoin, good info

I'm not saying fading the public always works, and I'm not saying the numbers you see are 100% accurate.

There's nothing wrong with taking these things into consideration, though, after you cap the games.

Either that, or you can tail Brock or Goat. Whatever gets you in your comfort zone.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by zacharyj53

I hardly stalk you, if you mean I notice 40,000 posts in 2 years, why yes I will see those threads. I don't jump in many of your threads, but bro come the hell on, you post way too much. You have no life and you are betting like 20 bucks on games. GTFO trying to act so smart on here, you are a douche.

I'll ask you the same thing I've asked you in the other threads you've tripped all over yourself to respond in: is someone holding a gun to your head, making you not only read my posts but also respond? If so, that really sucks. Sorry for being so hard on you.

If not, there's an ignore function. Use it.

bruins35 · 10-07-12, 04:32 PM

Originally posted by zacharyj53

I hardly stalk you, if you mean I notice 40,000 posts in 2 years, why yes I will see those threads. I don't jump in many of your threads, but bro come the hell on, you post way too much. You have no life and you are betting like 20 bucks on games. GTFO trying to act so smart on here, you are a douche.

You must work for a book your scared he might be showing the squares the light?

blackeyeshamus · 10-07-12, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

So you think it's just a coincidence?

Books know the NFL is the most popular sport in the world to bet. They set lines where they know they can draw in huge public action, then drop the hammer accordingly. The public gets totally mind-fvcked by the NFL, yet they're always back the next week, betting a ton of money on the Packers ML like Broke Landers and Goat Mush. Spread shot, ML shot, teasers shot, public broke. Every guy in the world who was dancing in the streets over his WVU ML cash last night just gave it all back and then some this morning in the NFL.

I'm not saying the public never wins in the NFL over isolated stretches, but in the end, this is the sport that the books get their payback. Every time. Every year.

zacharyj53 · 10-07-12, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

I'll ask you the same thing I've asked you in the other threads you've tripped all over yourself to respond in: is someone holding a gun to your head, making you not only read my posts but also respond? If so, that really sucks. Sorry for being so hard on you.

If not, there's an ignore function. Use it.

There isn't, and I ignore majority of your posts. I think I have posted in 3 or 4 of your threads over 2 years. You try to come off as sharp but you are a f'n waste.

No coincidences · 10-07-12, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by zacharyj53

There isn't, and I ignore majority of your posts. I think I have posted in 3 or 4 of your threads over 2 years. You try to come off as sharp but you are a f'n waste.

I have never once in my life said I was sharp or "a sharp." Ever. I don't believe it either. I have threads for all of my plays. Some years I win. Some years I lose. I'm down more than I'm up in my gambling lifetime, but I'm always learning and trying to get better. That's all I can do.

If you and patty get so bent out of shape, I suggest you put me on ignore and make your world a better place. If not, there's something inside of you that just can't resist....which makes me wonder what's really going on with you two, if you know what I mean.