Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=27035786'>posted</a> on 06/18/2017:
Over the last few weeks I have been researching more first and "second half" lines in bases. The more I dig down, the more I am thinking there may be more value in these. The reason, less variables that could negatively contribute to the outcome. Example, let's say you play an over based on the relievers, but one or both starters have great days. The reliever may give up a lot of runs, but it's not enough to make up for the great job by the starters. Earlier this week, a poster mentioned just playing the second half overs for the reliever games. I have begun to track those and they are 3-3 the last 3 days. For example today, all 4 of the Reliever Plays have a second half line of 3.5 runs, it does not matter if the game line is 10.5 runs or 8 runs, the second half line is 3.5 runs. As a matter, of fact ALL the games today have a second half line of 3.5 runs except the Colorado game! What does this tell us..... The posted game total is almost entirely based on the starters and, if we apply all the other factors such as wind, umpires, ball park and of course bullpen performance, we may have a significant edge. At least that's what I think one could ascertain from this.
Also, I have been working with xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) (Google it for an explanation), to pick first half sides and first half and game totals. I am in the embryonic stages of my research/tracking but I will let everyone know if there is any value in this.
DD
Over the last few weeks I have been researching more first and "second half" lines in bases. The more I dig down, the more I am thinking there may be more value in these. The reason, less variables that could negatively contribute to the outcome. Example, let's say you play an over based on the relievers, but one or both starters have great days. The reliever may give up a lot of runs, but it's not enough to make up for the great job by the starters. Earlier this week, a poster mentioned just playing the second half overs for the reliever games. I have begun to track those and they are 3-3 the last 3 days. For example today, all 4 of the Reliever Plays have a second half line of 3.5 runs, it does not matter if the game line is 10.5 runs or 8 runs, the second half line is 3.5 runs. As a matter, of fact ALL the games today have a second half line of 3.5 runs except the Colorado game! What does this tell us..... The posted game total is almost entirely based on the starters and, if we apply all the other factors such as wind, umpires, ball park and of course bullpen performance, we may have a significant edge. At least that's what I think one could ascertain from this.
Also, I have been working with xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching) (Google it for an explanation), to pick first half sides and first half and game totals. I am in the embryonic stages of my research/tracking but I will let everyone know if there is any value in this.
DD