The Prediction Machine/Accuscore and Gil Alexander
Gonna try to keep up with these 3 daily over on the baseball thread- so check over there....will be hard to post daily but will do my best....have time this morning and picks are out so might as well start today....please read past threads to check how they are all doing....overall accuscore and tpm are up and gil is down but getting hot....
Overlap-
All 3 (using TPM at at least 2.7% difference): Detroit (Gil has them on the RL only)
TPM and Accuscore only: Angels
TPM and Gil only: St. Louis
Accuscore and Gil only: none
TPM:
Weak Plays:
LAA 3.5% difference between expected and actual at -160 Bos 3.5 -150 Det 2.8 at -200 Tex 2.5 at -175 St L 2.8 at -135 Cin 3.2 at +142 Philly 1.6 at -147 Florida 1.7 at -120 TB 1.5 at +115
I'm a little confused why he ranks them in order of strongest to weakest but then a few of the lower ones have higher percent differentials...I should email him about that....also, while he does call these all weak plays- and a few more- considering we all know you have to win at about a 52.7 percent clip to break even, I would be sceptical of playing anything that is lower than 2.7....even though they are weak plays- when you run them on his calcuator the recommended play is very small for those (e.g- TB is for only .36 units)
Totals:
Weak Plays:
The reason these are in a weird order are because he ranks them depending on whether its at 105 110 or 115 juice....since that changes so much i won't bother writing differentials....but will still list in his order....the percent is the key really
Cinn over 8 56.5% (he started showing difference here too but it's not as relevant- just play these like hoops of football)- Oak u 7.5 56.5 Sea over 7.5 55.2 KC under 8.5 55.2 LAD over 7.5 55.9 Toro over 9.5 54.1 CWS under 9.5 54 NYM over 8 56 SF over 8.5 53.8 Atl over 6 55.5
Accuscore:
I will only post side values- not sure why they bother giving money line favs- side values are what matters in their system...
4 stars side value: LAA -167 Cleveland -135 Detroit -195 Yanks -149 Texas -177 Giants -126 Marlins -119