***Donkwin47's 2011 FOOTBALL Season Thread***

[Donkwin47]

NFL Sunday, September 11:

DONK 4* Falcons ML -121 LOSS
DONK 3* Jax/Ten Under 38.5 (-140) WON
DONK 3* CIN/CLE Under 37.5 (-125) LOSS
DONK 3* Texans TT Over 27 (-115) WON
DONK 3* 2 team, 7 point teaser: BC Lions -1, Texans -2 (-120) WON
2* Lions/Buccaneers Over 42.5 (-109) WON
2* Steelers ML +106 LOSS
2* Falcons 2H -3 (-125) LOSS
2* Chargers TT Over 26 LOSS
1.5* Vikings/Chargers Over 41.5 (-108) LOSS
1.5* 2 team, 7 point teaser: Chargers -3, CIN/CLE Under 43 (-120) LOSS
1.5* Redskins +1 (102) WON
1* NY Giants TT Under 21 WON

6-7 -$521. Getting screwed on the Cincy under was the difference between a winning day and this.. Not to mention Kaeding getting injured on the opening KO.. Chargers blew 3 good FG opps, which any 1 of them would have put the game over and the Chargers TT over which would have made us another 7 units.. Oh well, that's what happens when you wager on sports..

Got the Jets and Pats to close off a teaser and a ML parlay which would actually net us back the 5 units lost, so essentially a breakeven day if we can get those. GL.

[Wackthebet]

Keep up the good work. Wish I had followed from the 1st day.

[Donkwin47]

NFL Sunday, September 11:

DONK 3* 2 team, 7.5 pt Teaser: Chargers -2.5 (WON), Patriots PK (-135)
2* 2 team ML Parlay: Texans (WON), Jets (-147)
1.5* 2 team, 6.5 pt TW Teaser: Jets -0.5, Patriots -1 (-115)

Good luck as always.

[Donkwin47]

Keep up the good work. Wish I had followed from the 1st day.

Thanks for droppin' by for your 2nd post. Hope you bank with us the rest of the way!

[Donkwin47]

Don't worry about it bro. Was impossible to keep up with your ridiculous record. Time to brush it off, stay disciplined, and get em next week.

Thanks, man. Still got some work to do today and tomorrow, though!

[jcygts6]

remember to stay disciplined and dont play too many plays as the vig will eat up the profits

[Donkwin47]

remember to stay disciplined and dont play too many plays as the vig will eat up the profits

Yup, I know. This week with the NCAAF extravaganza was a one time thing, no need to worry.

[poochiecollins]

Donkwin47, what affects most of your decision-making for games? Will keep tabs, thank you.

[res11]

Woohoo jets came through to cash the parlay !!!

[Fang-Banger]

Cowboys +6.5 was a gift & sweating out the last couple minutes was just cruel! Good wknd overall for me hope ya rake it all yr long!

[Donkwin47]

NFL Sunday, September 11:

2* 2 team ML Parlay: Texans, Jets (-147)WON

7-7 -$321. Picked up 2 units by finishing that off. Now have Patriots ML (-135) risking 4.05* to win 3* on the final DONK play. Will add Patriots TT as a DONK 3* as well when it's posted. Hoping for 26.5, but will play 27 as well.

[Donkwin47]

Woohoo jets came through to cash the parlay !!!

Yup! Awesome game!

Cowboys +6.5 was a gift & sweating out the last couple minutes was just cruel! Good wknd overall for me hope ya rake it all yr long!

Glad you hear you had a good weekend. Good luck, bro!

[Donkwin47]

Donkwin47, what affects most of your decision-making for games? Will keep tabs, thank you.

I don't have any fancy computer system or anything like that.. I read about teams, watch a lot of ESPN, read around the forums, see who the good cappers are playing, see who the mushes are playing, try and gauge public perception, all that jazz.. Mostly I try to stick to teams that I'm more familiar with and have a good feel for. I don't even look at all the games on the weekends.. I like playing team totals since I feel I'm very accurate with matchups and picking an offense to shred a defense as I usually play overs.. A lot of what I do is just "feel", though, as most like to call it. Of course I also read into lines, but not too much.. How I come upon a pick is very unorthodox and not what anyone would call simple.. But it works.

Good luck this season.

[Donkwin47]

Season Records


NCAAF YTD: 36-19 +$2,147
DONK Plays: 4-1+$840

NFL YTD: 8-7 -$121
DONK PLAYS: 3-2 +$41

OVERALL YTD: 44-26+$2,026
DONK OVERALL: 7-3 +$881


NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)

[Donkwin47]

NFL Monday, September 12:

DONK 3* 2 team, 7.5 pt Teaser: Chargers -2.5 (WON), Patriots PK (-135)
1.5* 2 team, 6.5 pt TW Teaser: Jets -0.5 (WON), Patriots -1 (-115)

Will add Patriots TT Over when a line is put up. Hoping for 26.5, will play 27 as well. This will be a DONK 3*. Good luck.

[Donkwin47]

NFL Monday, September 12:

DONK 3* Patriots TT Over 27 (-140)
DONK 3* 2 team, 7.5 pt Teaser: Chargers -2.5 (WON), Patriots PK (-135)
1.5* 2 team, 6.5 pt TW Teaser: Jets -0.5 (WON), Patriots -1 (-115)

Patriots TT Just went up.. Was hoping for 26.5 as they are 7 point favorites in a 45.5 game, but it was posted at 27 (-140). Not happy with it, but I had to snag it at 27. If it went to 27.5 I'm not sure if it would come back and at 27 they'd realistically have to be held to 24 or less for us to lose. Pinny moved to 27 (-123) offering +money on the under, so I made sure to lock it in. Hopefully the juice won't matter because we won't lose. Best of luck.

[Exxpresso]

Hey donk, thanks for your good work. Now let´s have a succesful monday I´m happy because i got the Pats TT line at -110 at a swedish book. Do you have an opinion about the Denver Game ?

[aussieH]

Great stuff this thread. Don't know much about NFL but will follow this thread.

By the way do you have any long term super bowl picks

[Dave88]

Just wanna say thanks again.

Saw your Vikes/Chargers >41.5 play and snagged >40.5 with my book and made that an anchor bet in some 3-4 game parlays. Would've got the got the lot if the Falcons had won but thanks to the crazy last quarter in the Jets game finished well up on the day!

Noe looking fwd to MNF with extra $$ to play with!

[poochiecollins]

Donk, do you know how your prime time plays perform compared to the others? How much more often do you play them?

[KegKosmo]

Just found this thread, looks real good donk... any opinion on the Pats dolphins game on the spread or over/under? Thanks

[cutlerfan]

Just FYI, down in Miami and looks like storms and high winds tonight.

[KegKosmo]

im gonna start following donk i hope i have as much success as he does

[SageModeYi]

Waddup BadonkaDONK!

I wanted to get your opinion on next weeks Ravens - 5.5 line at the Titans. I'm thinking that a pretty low number for a team that just destroyed the steelers against a team that just lost to a team that started Luke Mccown at QB. However, I wanted to get your opinion on the bet first.

[Donkwin47]

Hey donk, thanks for your good work. Now let´s have a succesful monday I´m happy because i got the Pats TT line at -110 at a swedish book. Do you have an opinion about the Denver Game ?

Thanks. Nice line. Still looking at the late game.. Will post if I play anything. GL.

Great stuff this thread. Don't know much about NFL but will follow this thread.

By the way do you have any long term super bowl picks

The only future bet I have is a DONK 4* play on Notre Dame season wins Under 9. (They are 0-2, playing a 12 game schedule ).. That play was posted in this thread.

Just wanna say thanks again.

Saw your Vikes/Chargers >41.5 play and snagged >40.5 with my book and made that an anchor bet in some 3-4 game parlays. Would've got the got the lot if the Falcons had won but thanks to the crazy last quarter in the Jets game finished well up on the day!

Noe looking fwd to MNF with extra $$ to play with!

No problem, man. Congrats on a nice Sunday!

[Donkwin47]

Donk, do you know how your prime time plays perform compared to the others? How much more often do you play them?

One would think that they don't do as well since they're big public games and seem less exploitable, but I actually think I do better, mainly because I can key in and focus on that one game, dissect it, and just nail it. I play most of them..

Just found this thread, looks real good donk... any opinion on the Pats dolphins game on the spread or over/under? Thanks

I wouldn't touch the Pats spread, I think the Dolphins can score with them tonight.. For that reason and my love of the Pats TT over, I like the game over, and acutally might add it as a smaller play later..

Just FYI, down in Miami and looks like storms and high winds tonight.

Not too worried about rain.. People always think that means unders, but Henne and Reggie would probably just fumble and give the Pats good field position.. Plus, with the Pats offensive scheme of screens and slants, that would give them an edge, since they have guys like Woodhead who are quick and hard to tackle.. The ball carrier knows where he is going, the defender doesn't.. After Woody makes the cut, good luck to the defender getting the quick step on slick grass to grab him and bring him down.

[Donkwin47]

im gonna start following donk i hope i have as much success as he does

Best of luck bud!

Waddup BadonkaDONK!

I wanted to get your opinion on next weeks Ravens - 5.5 line at the Titans. I'm thinking that a pretty low number for a team that just destroyed the steelers against a team that just lost to a team that started Luke Mccown at QB. However, I wanted to get your opinion on the bet first.

Not sure.. It looks too easy.. Pretty fishy. Gonna have to look into it and watch that line all week. GL if you bet it.

[Donkwin47]

NFL Monday, September 12:

DONK 3* Patriots TT Over 27 (-140)
DONK 3* 2 team, 7.5 pt Teaser: Chargers -2.5 (WON), Patriots PK (-135)
1.5* 2 team, 6.5 pt TW Teaser: Jets -0.5 (WON), Patriots -1 (-115)
1.5* NE/MIA Over 46.5 (-104)

Patriots TT up to 28 now.. Was gonna play the Pats 1H TT over 13.5 but it opened at 14.. Woulda pounded over 13 but that was never realistic.. I added the game over, that will be it for that game. Still looking at DEN/OAK, will post if I play anything.

Good luck tonight, guys!

[bruce0]

I'm with you on the totals Donk, GL. Let's hope this late percentage on the under is just contrarian public faders.

[Donkwin47]

I'm with you on the totals Donk, GL. Let's hope this late percentage on the under is just contrarian public faders.

Good luck.. Horrible, horrible 2nd quarter, but the if we get the same 2H as the first I'll pick up 6 units.. I really wanted that FG at half to make it a 2 posession game and make the Pats 2h TT Over 10.. Gotskowski is great, and he just pushed it. Not to mention the hold that cost us a touchdown (It was holding, though), but they didn't call PI when OchoCinco was clearly interfered with on that back shoulder pass inside the 5.. Damn.. Hopefully the Pats come out and start off the 2H with a TD drive. GL.

[remypom]

Hey donk. What do u think about cowboys -3 vs 49ers

[remypom]

nice donk on pats over 27! cashed together u the MAN

[moneymac81]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1260755-ncaa-nfl-fat-girl-teaser.html

[Coach Potato]

thanks for the winner donk becuase of my smaller bankroll ive been playing your 3 unit or higher plays. Hopefully now i can cash my over 45 in the pats game too.

[Donkwin47]

Add:

2* Broncos -3 (-117)

Looks like we got the 4-0 sweep, so I'm gonna go ahead and press this. Denver got THROMPED and swept by Oakland last year.. They'll be out for revenge tonight at home on week 1 MNF.. Let's get it!