***Donkwin47's 2011 FOOTBALL Season Thread***

[remypom]

thanks for the winner donk becuase of my smaller bankroll ive been playing your 3 unit or higher plays. Hopefully now i can cash my over 45 in the pats game too.

it already has been cashed buddy thanks to donk

[Donkwin47]

it already has been cashed buddy thanks to donk

Haha, I don't control what happens in games.. I just tell you exactly what will happen before it does!



Nahhh.. Just playin'.. Good night for all of us, though!

[Coach Potato]

[KegKosmo]

How much do you bet DONK per *

[res11]

Dam time zones wasnt awake to see the ne/mia over play, good job donk following you this week has been awsum lets get that last broncos play !!!!

[Donkwin47]

How much do you bet DONK per *

I track it at $100 per unit.. Might just convert it to units and lose the dollar amounts..

[5DimeBreezy]

Hey Donk,
Can you lay down some insight on my teaser:
3 team - 6 pts (ties win):
Bears at Saints -1, Ravens -1 at Titans, Cowboys +3 at 49ers (+172)

Much appreciated...been tailing all week, keep up the good work bro.

[Donkwin47]

Add:

1* Live-In-Play Broncos ML +170

GL.

[Donkwin47]

Horrible beat right there on that Orton fumble... 100% TD if he just tosses that ball to the WIDE OPEN WR on the other side of the field.. 20-16, covering all spreads, etc.. 7-unit swing. Unbelievable.

[GoldenCHamp]

i feel ur pain

[face]

fumble, then re-fumble squirt out

[Donkwin47]

NFL Monday, September 12:

DONK 3* Patriots TT Over 27 (-140) WON
DONK 3* 2 team, 7.5 pt Teaser: Chargers -2.5, Patriots PK (-135) WON
2* Broncos -3 (-117) LOSS
1.5* 2 team, 6.5 pt TW Teaser: Jets -0.5, Patriots -1 (-115) WON
1.5* NE/MIA Over 46.5 (-104) WON
1* Live-In-Play Broncos ML +170 LOSS

4-2 +$566. Somehow, we ended up having YET ANOTHER profitable week in football. Wow.

Should have just played the Broncos 2H, but held off after what happenned with Atlanta. Very frustrating late game. That Orton fumble on the guaranteed TD was the game, and that 63 yard Janikowski FG was ended up being the difference. Just unforseen stuff ripping money from our hands is frustrating as hell. ##)

[Donkwin47]

Season Records


NCAAF YTD: 36-19 +$2,147
DONK Plays: 4-1+$840

NFL YTD: 12-9 +$445
DONK PLAYS: 5-2 +$641

OVERALL YTD: 44-26+$2,692
DONK OVERALL: 9-3 +$1,481


NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)

[LSUtiger]

Good work Donk...even in what may seem as an off week, we're still in the Green! Congrats!

[Donkwin47]

Just want to apologize to the people who may have played that Denver game.. While the bet itself wasn't terrible and got pretty unlucky, the team was atrocious and I may have pressed more than was called for after the early 4-0 sweep. I was intenting on playing Denver, but it should not have been a 2* play. 1 or 1.5* at most. Then I messed up and doubted myself at halftime after the Falcons debacle.. The second the clock hit 0:00 at halftime I was ready to go 2* on Den -3, but I realized it was the exact same situation as the ATL game, and held off- Only to throw away a unit on the Live ML (hopefully most didn't even see that play in time to bet it..) Mistake before the game, mistake at halftime, and mistake during the 2nd half.. Gotta be smart and just learn from it. I will be back and we will continue to increase those green numbers a few posts above this one.. Got a lot to do @ college this week, so sorry if I can't get to all the questions or comments.

BOL, guys. See ya soon!

[Donkwin47]

Good work Donk...even in what may seem as an off week, we're still in the Green! Congrats!

Thanks, man. 'Preciate the support. We'll have a better week next week.

[Donkwin47]

Btw, I will probably be fading the Broncos in the future this year until they prove they are not as bad as they displayed tonight.. We'll see how they do against the Bengals and Titans, but in 3 weeks they head to Lambeau to get raped by the Pack, and then the next week they play the Chargers.. Could see myself hitting the GB and SD TT Over both weeks. Both teams will have a legit shot at dropping 40 on this joke of a team, and I may have to play the spreads or at least tease/ML parlay because Denver is NOT winning either of those games.

Also, I'm looking at a team total for this upcoming week in NFL and I'm really liking what I'm seeing. It may be the first DONK 5* of the year. Obviously the TT won't be posted for another 5+ days, but where I see the total for that game at and the spread, I think we'll be able to get a solid number on it. Don't ask what it is, because I will not say.. I don't know the line, still have to look more into the game, and I may not even play it. I don't want to steer people wrong. I will post if I play it, obviously, but it's just an idea right now.. Could end up being a big play, could end up being a no play. Looking forward to it, though.

Just some thoughts.. GL, guys.

[jbatcha21]

I don't think it was just that the Broncos are that bad. Oakland is a better team than most people expect, especially on defense. Broncos were also without 3 key starters on defense last night and Dumervil saw limited action because he is still not fully healthy. They also had 2 key fumbles, partly due to a rain-soaked ball, that led to 14 Oakland points.

[blue.eyed.tuna]

I think that defense is better than they looked last night.

[Donkwin47]

I don't think it was just that the Broncos are that bad. Oakland is a better team than most people expect, especially on defense. Broncos were also without 3 key starters on defense last night and Dumervil saw limited action because he is still not fully healthy. They also had 2 key fumbles, partly due to a rain-soaked ball, that led to 14 Oakland points.

I think that defense is better than they looked last night.

I was actually expecting Oakland's defense to be pretty good this year.. Orton SUCKED, was throwning balls into the dirt all night, the Denver receivers were dropping ball after ball, and Denver's O-Line and between the tackle run game sucked as well, yet the Broncos still dropped 20.. Obviously Oakland giving up the kick return hurt, but special teams are a liability, gotta cover.. In the 4th quarter when Denver drove to make it a 3 point game, Oak had no chance to stop that crappy offense.. AND, they got shredded for a drive and completely OWNED on the throwback play where Orton fumbled, resulting in 0 points, and eventually 7 the other way. Throw that with a missed field goal and you realize Denver could have easily been in the 30's with their pathetic offense. The worst part of the Oak D was the mid-long range passing game. Just atrocious.. EVERY slant was wide open, not even a body on the WR trying to break it up, and deep posts were there all night, Orton was just missing and WRs were just dropping.. Don't remember how we got on the topic of Denver's defense, but yeah.. Those are some of my thoughts on the matter..

[Donkwin47]

NCAAF Thursday September 15th:

DONK 3* LSU ML -165
DONK 3* 3-Team ML Parlay: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Green Bay Packers (-177)

NFL Sunday September 18th:

DONK 3* Ravens -6


**********
Ravens line is -5.5 pretty much everywhere.. I put it in a while ago and got -6, so that is the line I'm posting. What I bet is what I post, no need to skew lines/records/etc..

**********
Miss State is a joke on defense, guys.. And on offense, well they look great.. But you could combine the top players at each position from their first two opponents and it wouldn't make for half the squad of what LSU will put on the field Thursday. MSU SUCKS against the run.. I saw a comment saying they can just stack the box? Nah.. Lee is actually better than Jefferson, and I believe he makes them a better team.. Senior QB with a good head on his shoulders and a much more accurate pure passer than that thug Jefferson. 7 TDs to 10 INTS last year? 1,400 yards all season? You kidding?..

If LSU can stop the Miss St. running attack in this one, say goodnight. Would love to see Chris Relf throwing on 3rd and long all night. This is a defense that forced 4 turnovers from Oregon. Against SEC defenses like this one last year (Alabama, LSU, Auburn-when they had a defense last year..) Relf threw for 71 yards per game and had 0 TD's to 3 INT's in those 3 games.. All games they lost by an average of 15 points. LSU beat them last year 29-7.. Granted that was a home game for LSU, I think LSU is much better this year on defense and overall.. As for MSU, I thought so, at least somewhat, but I don't like what I've seen.. Even when I bet on them week 1 in the opener and they romped Memphis 59-14, they gave up 338 yards and multiple TD drives to a team that wasn't supposed to flirt with double digit points, despite 3 turnovers for Memphis (Not including a turnover on downs and 2 other fumbles that Memphis recovered but were drive killers). I enjoyed winning the first week and ignored some of the doubt I had and rolled with MSU again against Auburn (whose defense is a joke) and MSU taught me to take the split on those two games and make some money against them from then on. If the talent level from last year is relatively the same, or slightly in LSU's favor, do you think home field advantage is worth 22 points? I don't, obviously. Especially for MSU, who doesn't have that great of home field advantage anyways.. LSU fans will be heard there.

Defense and special teams.. SO HUGE, and the disparity between these 2 teams in those areas is sickening.. I know LSU's offense isn't GREAT, but it's efficient. Am I worried that MSU could plan and figure out a way to stop LSU's pro-style offense or at least limit it? A little, but I think it will be the "limit it" option at best, and with LSU's defense and special teams setting up short fields and great opportunities, the offense might not have to do too much, especially if the defense plays one of its better games. By the way, James Carmon- MSU's starting senior left tackle- is most likely out for this game after rolling his knee and being carted off the field against Auburn. Their senior center sprained his knee as well, and missed practice this week. He should play, but not at 100%.. LSU defenders have got to be drooling. From DE's to blitzing DB's.. Opportunity knocks!

Don't over think this.. Don't buy into the home dog, in-conference, on ESPN on a weekday BS (Look at the home dog, divisional, primetime ESPN Dolphins Monday night..).. LSU has one goal this year, and it's a National Championship.. I don't neccesarily think they'll get it.. They play a hell of a schedule in the SEC, but this game isn't gonna stop them.. Why play the ML? Eh.. In case MSU does find a way to limit LSU on offense and we get a lower scoring game (which I'm not expecting) but also because of the conference ESPN road chalk angle I advised not to buy into, haha. LSU will just win this game, no need to be up 10 and get backdoored by the hook for the loss or for a push. One of my sayings is: "You don't pay vig unless you lose." I don't think we'll have to worry about that.

LSU easy.

**********
Also, that team total is shaping up to be a play.. Looked into it a lot today, and game by game box scores from last year with play by play for assurance.. The game total has moved up, but the spread has stayed the same.. Hopefully I can get the number I want. It will be at least a 3* and possibly up to a 5*.

**********

Welp, I was obviously bored tonight after a day "away" and decided to drop some knowledge.. Don't get used to the write-ups, I simply don't have the time. But rest assured this kind of thought is behind my plays every week.

Let's make this one a good one. (Plenty more plays to come..)

[CBASS]

Donk, you are nothing but class brother. Excellent writeup on the LSU vs. Miss. St. game! That really got to the core for those who are still learning how to wager on sports efficiently. You did a fine job of mentioning the hidden variables that actually matter the most when wagering on an NCAAF matchup. Keep crushing 'em buddy.

[Donkwin47]

Donk, you are nothing but class brother. Excellent writeup on the LSU vs. Miss. St. game! That really got to the core for those who are still learning how to wager on sports efficiently. You did a fine job of mentioning the hidden variables that actually matter the most when wagering on an NCAAF matchup. Keep crushing 'em buddy.

Haha.. Sick part is, it feels like I was only getting started. Left so much out, like when I raised the concern about whether MSU will prepare for this "predictable" offense.. It's a short week! The game is Thursday night! And LSU won 49-3 in a walkover, while MSU was involved in an SEC battle and got thromped. Haha, what a joke.

Thanks for the kind words, man. Appreciate it. Now we gotta bring it home!

[BigBurk]

Thanks for the plays and the great write up! You'd almost think this can't go wrong with such a write up

[Blackroc78]

donk, you are nothing but class brother. Excellent writeup on the lsu vs. Miss. St. Game! That really got to the core for those who are still learning how to wager on sports efficiently. You did a fine job of mentioning the hidden variables that actually matter the most when wagering on an ncaaf matchup. Keep crushing 'em buddy.

agreed!!

[esbenp]

Looks like you got awesome game insight Donk. I'm really stoked somebody offer plays like this for free. You are a saint I'm following this from now on..

[roymunson]

I also think you have an edge! I think you should concentrate on your donkplays every week, but that is your choice. You are serious and honest, I will tail you as much as I can, let´s do this! Very nice when you discuss plays and good write ups. Thank you very much that you share your passion for football and picks with us!

[Coach Potato]

Thanks donk

[cackerman509]

Great write up Donk! I am tailing you on this game. I also like Stanford -10, Wisc -16.5 You feel good about those aswell? Thanks again and GL

[jbatcha21]

I like the plays Donk. I will be with you on these this weekend

[raiderhater9572]

Donk I really like LSU's team total right now of 26.5 I think that it may be a better than playing the O/U of 49.5 even though state offensively has put up some points in the first two games of they year. I agree with your LSU play I like the Tiger's strength with their D to have an edge over the MSST Offense. Your write up was great love the Relf stat about his performance in the SEC last year hah! But 26.5 doesn't that look good to you?

Anyways I appreciate your write up I think I read your a college student somewhere and I am as well and take this stuff seriously like my job.
I live over here on the west side so here's one that caught my eye.
Hawaii (-20.5) @ UNLV
- Hawaii is coming off a loss last week on the mainland to Washington after digging themselves in a 21-0 but responded with a strong effort before losing 40-32. I watched their first game against Colorado on opening weekend and even though they were up comfortably at half they started sluggishly on offense before hitting their stride. I think in this spot against UNLV the offense should come out of the gates hot against what may be the worst defense in the entire nation.
- UNLV is straight up awful; their offense defines mediocrity when the Rebels are performing at their finest. QB Herring and RB Cornett can move the ball a little bit which we saw against their opener at Wisconsin but last week only scored 7 points with a late TD against Wazzou. The defense is just horrendous and their is no way they will be able to stop Hawaii in any way. Moniz the senior QB who led the nation in passing a year ago has added another dimension to his game this year by running the ball and already has 4 rushing TD's this year which possesses another obstacle for the Rebels. The Warriors should be piling on the points here I believe 50+ is not to much to ask for.
- Even though this is UNLV's home opener and their should be a better performance from last weeks 59-7 drumming by Washington State I think any line under 21 has good value here. The UNLV offense should put up a better effort this game but won't pose a threat to cover the spread but gives even more reason to play the over which is at 58.5.
Sorry I just got carried away this is your thread but we are here to help each other so take a look into this if interested

[BetWhisperer]

I'm curious if you like LSU so much over Miss state, then why not take the -3.5 at better price?

[remypom]

Donk how do u like The away dogs that are -3. Phili, Houston, dallas

[odog11]

Hey Donk what do you think about the Lions this week? Think I may just have to at the very last throw them into a teaser, get it down under a field goal. Thanks for the work mang.

[LSUtiger]

Jefferson. 7 TDs to 10 INTS last year?

Funny thing is that three of those TD's came in the bowl game

Thanks for the write up donk, it is very reassuring to hear an objective view for this game. I always try my hardest to not be biased in my predictions for LSU (for betting purposes and realism), and personally I think we crush State tomorrow. Today I started to question my prediction due to other write ups from people who like MSU, but I agree with EVERY point you make. Lee IS the better QB, game manager, and pure passer. Sure Jefferson displayed his running ability, but LSU has great running backs so it doesn't really matter. Also, I personally was worried after the loss of Patrick Peterson (DB), Kelvin Sheppard (LB), and Drake Nevis (DL) who were the leaders of those three units, but after going to the Oregon game in Dallas I realized the defense is actually better this year. LSU will cause some game changing turnovers, the D will limit MSU's running game, and Lee will manage the game by simply handing off the ball to our hardnose RB's and throw a couple easy passes here and there. A lot of people also forget to mention that LSU prepared physically for Oregon's tempo and no huddle offense since February. They are in top physical shape and are coming off an easy win over a cupcake team while MSU had 5 days to prepare after a heartbreaking, long, and physical game. LSU 31-MSU 13