***Donkwin47's 2011 FOOTBALL Season Thread***

[Donkwin47]

Wow. A lot of questions and comments.. I'll get to them all, guys. Just give me a 'lil bit.

[cutlerfan]

Was REALLY hoping to see you on MSU as I follow 3 cappers for college and one of them has no play on this game and the other has MSU. Both of you have good write ups and angles on it too. Might just pass at this point but best of luck to you!

[Donkwin47]

Thanks for the plays and the great write up! You'd almost think this can't go wrong with such a write up

Haha, you may think so, but so much can go wrong at any time.. Let's just hope it doesn't for us..

agreed!!

Looks like you got awesome game insight Donk. I'm really stoked somebody offer plays like this for free. You are a saint I'm following this from now on..

Thanks, guys.. Happy to help and see others cash along with me!

[TMoney33]

[quote=Donkwin47;11405329]Mistake before the game, mistake at halftime, and mistake during the 2nd half.. Gotta be smart and just learn from it. quote]

It's so refreshing to see someone buy their mistake rather than defending it and doubling down. I'm interested to see more of your analysis.

[Donkwin47]

I also think you have an edge! I think you should concentrate on your donkplays every week, but that is your choice. You are serious and honest, I will tail you as much as I can, let´s do this! Very nice when you discuss plays and good write ups. Thank you very much that you share your passion for football and picks with us!

Thanks donk

Great write up Donk! I am tailing you on this game. I also like Stanford -10, Wisc -16.5 You feel good about those aswell? Thanks again and GL

I like the plays Donk. I will be with you on these this weekend

Thanks guys and good luck to all of us!

[Donkwin47]

I'm curious if you like LSU so much over Miss state, then why not take the -3.5 at better price?

I mentioned it in the write up.. Just don't feel like getting backdoored or anything.. This seems like one of those games.. Sometimes, you gotta just forget this game against the pointspread and just pick the winner of the football game. I think LSU will win. Don't care if it's by 1 or 21, just win. That's all they're trying to do.

Plus, at -165, the line already moving to -4, it would be like -145 to buy to -3.. I knew I'd get some value with that ML.

Donk how do u like The away dogs that are -3. Phili, Houston, dallas

Away dogs? As in Those teams' opponents? Falcons, Dolphins and 49ers? I I like all 3 of the teams you listed to score some points, maybe save Dallas.. No real big leans on any of those sides, but Houston looks like a trap. I'll let you know if I get a beat on those games or make a play on any of 'em- I'll post.

Hey Donk what do you think about the Lions this week? Think I may just have to at the very last throw them into a teaser, get it down under a field goal. Thanks for the work mang.

I mean.. The Chiefs suck, but when was the last time you saw the Lions as 9 point favorites? That's weird.. They easily handled TB @ Tampa in a PK game last week, and TB was a solid team last year.. Also, the public remembers the Lions thromping of the Patriots in the preseason- fresh on their minds.. I think the Lions may be a little overvalued at this point in time. Having said that, they should win the game, but I don't plan to have them in any teasers or ML parlays.

[Donkwin47]

Donk I really like LSU's team total right now of 26.5 I think that it may be a better than playing the O/U of 49.5 even though state offensively has put up some points in the first two games of they year. I agree with your LSU play I like the Tiger's strength with their D to have an edge over the MSST Offense. Your write up was great love the Relf stat about his performance in the SEC last year hah! But 26.5 doesn't that look good to you?

Anyways I appreciate your write up I think I read your a college student somewhere and I am as well and take this stuff seriously like my job.
I live over here on the west side so here's one that caught my eye.
Hawaii (-20.5) @ UNLV
- Hawaii is coming off a loss last week on the mainland to Washington after digging themselves in a 21-0 but responded with a strong effort before losing 40-32. I watched their first game against Colorado on opening weekend and even though they were up comfortably at half they started sluggishly on offense before hitting their stride. I think in this spot against UNLV the offense should come out of the gates hot against what may be the worst defense in the entire nation.
- UNLV is straight up awful; their offense defines mediocrity when the Rebels are performing at their finest. QB Herring and RB Cornett can move the ball a little bit which we saw against their opener at Wisconsin but last week only scored 7 points with a late TD against Wazzou. The defense is just horrendous and their is no way they will be able to stop Hawaii in any way. Moniz the senior QB who led the nation in passing a year ago has added another dimension to his game this year by running the ball and already has 4 rushing TD's this year which possesses another obstacle for the Rebels. The Warriors should be piling on the points here I believe 50+ is not to much to ask for.
- Even though this is UNLV's home opener and their should be a better performance from last weeks 59-7 drumming by Washington State I think any line under 21 has good value here. The UNLV offense should put up a better effort this game but won't pose a threat to cover the spread but gives even more reason to play the over which is at 58.5.
Sorry I just got carried away this is your thread but we are here to help each other so take a look into this if interested

As far as the LSU TT goes.. That was my original plan for this game.. I was expecting it to open around 26, give or take a half point. For me however, it opened at 27. Don't like it as much there. Obviously, I think very lowly of MSU's defense and I planned on fading it. However, that wager takes a key element out of the game- LSU's defense. That is the reason they are such a good team, and LSU TT Over loses that element. I thought about the TT over, but if LSU drops 27+, they're not losing. plain and simple. BUT, they definitely could win a 21-17 or 24-14 type game.. I like the LSU ML more, and that is my play. Passing the TT.

For Hawaii, it's kind of the opposite, lol. I have them in a ML parlay (will update card soon) and like them to light up the scoreboard this week. In this one, though.. It's all about Hawaii's offense.. I could care less about the spread and now much their defense gives up, as long as it's either a quick score or a quick out.. I like Hawaii TT over in that one, but the spread may be decent. Obviously I expect them to win as I mentioned I have them in a ML parlay.

GL.

Funny thing is that three of those TD's came in the bowl game

Thanks for the write up donk, it is very reassuring to hear an objective view for this game. I always try my hardest to not be biased in my predictions for LSU (for betting purposes and realism), and personally I think we crush State tomorrow. Today I started to question my prediction due to other write ups from people who like MSU, but I agree with EVERY point you make. Lee IS the better QB, game manager, and pure passer. Sure Jefferson displayed his running ability, but LSU has great running backs so it doesn't really matter. Also, I personally was worried after the loss of Patrick Peterson (DB), Kelvin Sheppard (LB), and Drake Nevis (DL) who were the leaders of those three units, but after going to the Oregon game in Dallas I realized the defense is actually better this year. LSU will cause some game changing turnovers, the D will limit MSU's running game, and Lee will manage the game by simply handing off the ball to our hardnose RB's and throw a couple easy passes here and there. A lot of people also forget to mention that LSU prepared physically for Oregon's tempo and no huddle offense since February. They are in top physical shape and are coming off an easy win over a cupcake team while MSU had 5 days to prepare after a heartbreaking, long, and physical game. LSU 31-MSU 13

Very nice. Let's do this, LSUTiger!

[Donkwin47]

Was REALLY hoping to see you on MSU as I follow 3 cappers for college and one of them has no play on this game and the other has MSU. Both of you have good write ups and angles on it too. Might just pass at this point but best of luck to you!

Sorry, man. No way I'd touch MSU here. Just curious, who are the other cappers? I like to read other write ups and people's input on games. I'll check it out..

It's so refreshing to see someone buy their mistake rather than defending it and doubling down. I'm interested to see more of your analysis.

It's the only line of action that makes sense. People can try and cover their tracks or try to mask the truth and fool other people, but their really just fooling themselves, and it will cost them big in the long run. Gotta learn from mistakes and take an objective approach to each game each week.

I look at this strictly as investing. I don't bet on teams because I WANT them to win or I flip a coin because I think the game will be ENTERTAINING.. This isn't for fanship and pride, this isn't for fun.. This is for one reason... PROFIT.

Of course, it's always fun when you make sick profit while slaughtering the books.

[Donkwin47]

I don't think I did, but if I missed anyone's post, lemme know..

Also- thanks to everyone who gave points. Very much appreciated.

[Donkwin47]

Season Records


NCAAF YTD: 36-19 +$2,147
DONK Plays: 4-1+$840

NFL YTD: 12-9 +$445
DONK PLAYS: 5-2 +$641

OVERALL YTD: 44-26+$2,692
DONK OVERALL: 9-3 +$1,481


NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)

Will be posting/bumping my records and cards more often due to the increased volume in replies.. The last record update came 5 pages after the previous, and on game day, I will try to keep my card near the end of the thread, hopefully on the last page often.

[Donkwin47]

NCAAF Thursday, September 15th:

DONK 3* LSU ML -165


NCAAF Friday, September 16th:

DONK 3* 3-Team ML Parlay: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Green Bay Packers (-177)
2* 3-team ML Parlay: Boise State, New Orleans Saints, Packers (-137)
2* 4-team ML Parlay: Boise State, Stanford, Hawaii, Packers (-127)

NFL Sunday, September 18th:

DONK 3* Ravens -6


The ML parlays are listed under the day for which the first games are played. The 3-teamer with the Saints and Packers will be graded as an NFL wager, the other 2 as NCAAF wagers. I don't need anyone to come in here and tell me that if either Boise St. or Green Bay loses, I'm out 10 units immediately. I know that, thanks. I didn't throw these together for fun.. Boise St. and GB are my 2 favorite big MLs this week. I think they both win EASY and both cover the spread as well. If they lose, they lose. (But they won't.)

GL.

[painter10]

looks good donk im not much for parlays good luck this season and thanks for the winners!!!

[GoG1211]

nice job donk.. keep it up

[Donkwin47]

looks good donk im not much for parlays good luck this season and thanks for the winners!!!

I'm not a big parlay guy at all.. Almost never play straight parlays with spreads, but ML parlays are a different animal.

nice job donk.. keep it up

[danextkg21]

Hey donk! Would LSU ML be the only play on the game or do you have one more? Jw! BOL to you!

[cutlerfan]

Machine Choice is one on MSU. Only plays 1-2 games a day and has very detailed write-ups. Good capper even though you're on opposite side here. Other guy I like is Rochestertitan.

[Donkwin47]

Hey donk! Would LSU ML be the only play on the game or do you have one more? Jw! BOL to you!

Yup, just the ML.. I lean LSU Team Total Over 27, but decided not to play it. GL.

[Donkwin47]

Machine Choice is one on MSU. Only plays 1-2 games a day and has very detailed write-ups. Good capper even though you're on opposite side here. Other guy I like is Rochestertitan.

Cool, thanks. I know Roch, but haven't heard of Machine Choice. Will take a look at his write up.

GO LSU!

[Bcatswin]

Nice Intel Donk, intersted in following.

[cutlerfan]

Not sure what way I go, but how about LSU 31-30?

[CAS2550]

Good luck everyone! Gonna jump on LSU tonight as well. Thanks donk for the play hopefully she hits. One quick question, for those two three team parlays this week - DONK 3* 3-Team ML Parlay: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Green Bay Packers (-177)
2* 3-team ML Parlay: Boise State, New Orleans Saints, Packers (-137)
explanation to why you decided to make the second one and drop OK STATE and throw in NO?? I was about ready to jump on the first one and then saw the second one.. figured the first to be more solid..

[Donkwin47]

Nice Intel Donk, intersted in following.

Thanks and good luck!

Not sure what way I go, but how about LSU 31-30?

I'd take it!

Good luck everyone! Gonna jump on LSU tonight as well. Thanks donk for the play hopefully she hits. One quick question, for those two three team parlays this week - DONK 3* 3-Team ML Parlay: Boise State, Oklahoma State, Green Bay Packers (-177)
2* 3-team ML Parlay: Boise State, New Orleans Saints, Packers (-137)
explanation to why you decided to make the second one and drop OK STATE and throw in NO?? I was about ready to jump on the first one and then saw the second one.. figured the first to be more solid..

It's not that I "dropped OK State.."

When I make those ML parlays, I use them to bet on a specific team with a relatively lower ML that I feel will win but and not overly confident in when looking at the spread.. The first one is basically a 3* play on OK State ML, the 2nd is a 2* play on the Saints ML.. I just used Boise and Green Bay in both because I feel it is a huge longshot that either of them lose. The line was -137 for the Saints parlay.. Already low enough.. Didn't need to put OK State in that one and risk more losses if OK State were to go down.. I still like OK State to win, I just already have 5 units risked on them. That's enough..

[Wackthebet]

Donk could not get the money line on Boise St. with my off shore book. So I took a 7pt. teaser on your mutiple ML parlays. Do you think that was good strat? Win, lose or draw your still the man. Thanks for the picks.

[CAS2550]

Good man. Thanks for the explanation, I appreciate it. Im new to your thread, so far it seems pretty awesome. Keep up the good work! I just started trailing today with LSU. BOL tonight!

[collie]

Thanks heaps for the thoughts mate. much appreciated.

[res11]

Lsu ...donk that s**t!!!

[odog11]

Yup, just the ML.. I lean LSU Team Total Over 27, but decided not to play it. GL.

Thanks for the pick and this is a good reminder to just find the best play for a game and play it, no need to play another angle if you don't see the same or at least close value, points coming your way. It's too bad you can't use them for beer.

[Donkwin47]

Donk could not get the money line on Boise St. with my off shore book. So I took a 7pt. teaser on your mutiple ML parlays. Do you think that was good strat? Win, lose or draw your still the man. Thanks for the picks.

Umm.. I think Boise has a good chance to cover tomorrow and might make a play on them, so seems decent, but hopefully you're getting a much nicer payout, for value.

Good man. Thanks for the explanation, I appreciate it. Im new to your thread, so far it seems pretty awesome. Keep up the good work! I just started trailing today with LSU. BOL tonight!

Congrats on the start!

Thanks heaps for the thoughts mate. much appreciated.

No problem, bud. Happy to help.

Lsu ...donk that s**t!!!

Yezzir!!!

Thanks for the pick and this is a good reminder to just find the best play for a game and play it, no need to play another angle if you don't see the same or at least close value, points coming your way. It's too bad you can't use them for beer.

Thanks man. Appreciate the kind words and the points- very much. If only I could use them for beer, haha!

[Donkwin47]

NCAAF Thursday, September 15th:

DONK 3* LSU ML -165 WIN

1-0 +$300

Sooooo many morons on these forums trying to be "sharp" and back an overrated MSU team.. To all of them:

I told you all not to overthink this one.. This game was pure domination.. LSU never trailed, and I don't think the margin of victory sufficiently illustrates the ownage that just took place.

LSU had over triple MSU's score, almost double the total yards, triple the rushing yards, less turnovers, dominated time of possession.. Everything.. In MSU's house.

This game provoked so much argument in these forums over the course of the week leading up to it, and since I wrote the write-up and had a long week, I was really looking forward to tonight hoping to bang it home. I did, we cashed yet again, and it feels great.

Was about to add on at halftime but just decided to ride it out. Can't complain. This one feels good.

[Donkwin47]

Season Records


NCAAF YTD: 37-19 +$2,447
DONK Plays: 5-1+$1,140

NFL YTD: 12-9 +$445
DONK PLAYS: 5-2 +$641

OVERALL YTD: 45-26+$2,992
DONK OVERALL: 10-3 +$1,781


NFL Preseason: 35-14 +$3,253
(Not included in Overall, No DONK Plays)

[bruloc]

I cashed plus 2 units with the under

Donk, for tomorrow's games, do you have any leans?

And ty! You are doing very well man.

[schism79]

Nice work Donk! That LSU defense is nasty - I think they will end up in the championship game....Nothing fancy on offense, but doesn't need to be when you shut teams down like that! Reminds me of the 2000 Ravens defense almost....

I'm looking forward to your picks again this weekend...We both liked Notre Dame last week and got robbed after ND took that 24-7 into the 4th. Notre Dame seems too good to drop to 0-3...do you see any mismatches in the matchups in this one, or think ND can cover 5?

GL all season!

[neverwin]

nice one, I was with you on LSU. Looking forward to your other plays

[Dave88]

Thanks for another winner Donk.
Looking forward to your thoughts on the weekend games.

[BigBurk]

Great call on the LSU match Donk! Keep it up!